Chernomorets Burgas vs Pirin Blagoevgrad
FreeToday’s featured game is the A PFG encounter between Chernomorets Burgas and Pirin Blagoevgrad in Buglaria. The hosts are currently one of just two A PFG sides to remain unbeaten this season whereas only a handful of sides have lost more than today’s visitors have but I don’t feel that necessarily denotes what will happen in this game today.
Chernomorets Burgas are unquestionably the better of these two sides and deserve the tag of “favourites” to win this game. However, I can’t fully agree with the odds on offer because although they’re a very good side that are very hard to beat, they simply do not score goals! Only Kaliakra, Akademik Sofia, and today’s opponents Pirin Blagoevgrad have scored less goals than they have this season because Chernomorets find it very hard to break sides down. They’re the best side in the A PFG by a mile when it comes to defending but in attack they still have a lot of work to do. The hosts average scoring a goal per home game this season because they don’t attack well enough or often enough and it really hinders them in games like this. Chernomorets are much more motivated against sides like Lokomotiv Sofia and Levski Sofia, both of which they’ve beaten at home already this season. However, look at the three home games they’ve dropped points in – Sliven, Akademik Sofia, and Minior Pernik respectively – all three are battling relegation! Chernomorets are not motivated well enough to win games like this more often than not and the stubborn defensive tactics of their opponents is usually enough for them to take a credibe result from games like this.
Unfortunately for Chernomorets, that’s exactly what they’re up against today. Pirin Blagoevgrad’s league placing doesn’t lie here; they’re not a very good team. However, one statistic that slips under the radar is that only three sides have destroyed them this season – Levski Sofia, Slavia Sofia, and Montana, the former two of which are pretty damn acceptable in this league. A trip to Montana has started being likened to a trip to Beroe last season, such is the difficulty of it, which is what Pirin found out earlier this season. Aside from that, nobody else has had an easy ride against Pirin and I expect more of the same today. Barring their 4-1 defeat at Levski Sofia, Pirin’s last six A PFG games have gone under 2.5 goals with Pirin having only lost two of them. They’re not a good goalscoring side, hence just three goals being scored on the road this season, but they’re hard to break down defensively and Chernomorets have already proven the difficulty that they have in breaking sides down this season so under 2.5 goals really appeals to me today.
This game hasn’t gone under 2.5 goals in the last two meetings that these two sides have had here but there’s a first time for everything! Burgas are a side that I respect an awful lot, especially against the bigger sides, but they generally lack the variety to break sides like Pirin Blagoevgrad down and that really should be evident by the final whistle today so my call is under 2.5 goals at a rather generous 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Ceske Budejovice vs Mlada Boleslav – away win at 3/2.
I like this bet a lot more than I probably should because it’s two ultra opposites of the division meeting in this game. On one hand, we have defensive moguls Ceske Budejovice who are rumoured to not even practice attacking in training, such is their lack of interest in it! On the other hand, we have Mlada Boleslav, who have abolished defending as if it were slavery!
Therefore, this game will be interesting whatever happens, at least to a sad devotee of football such as myself! Ceske have only lost once at home this season because only Marila Pribram and Sigma Olomouc have conceded less goals at home than they have and thus they’re hard to score against. However, their problem is that if they fall behind then they tend to lose because they’re not a good attacking side. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they’ve won every home game this season that they’ve taken the lead in nor that they’ve lost every home game this season that they’ve fallen behind in, which is also interesting as they’ve not scored at home when they’ve fallen behind this season, thus proving my point.
However, the risk factor comes with Mlada Boleslav, who are sometimes good enough to dominate this division and are sometimes bad enough to not even be in it. Mlada are a good attacking force on their own turf but they’ve not demonstrated it often on the road this season, which does concern me. Indeed, their away record in the Gambrinus Liga this season resembles that of a defensive side, something which Mlada rarely are because they’re simply not very good at it. A bizarre 2-3 defeat at home to Slovacko in their last Gambrinus Liga match doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence here, especially after their unconvincing display in the Pohar CMFS mid-week. However, I cannot overlook that this side is a good attacking side and goalscoring is their art so they’re going to attack here and if they score then they really should win the game.
Indeed, Mlada Boleslav have a better record at Ceske Budejovice than most sides do with two wins and two draw from their last four visits here. Mlada haven’t failed to score here during those fours visits, which is even more impressive, so I do fancy Mlada to do damage here. It aids my cause that Ceske have been particularly poor lately with a 5-1 drubbing at Sigma Olomouc and a 0-2 defeat at home against Teplice in the Pohar CMFS mid-week so they’re ripe for a beating here. With Ceske always defending and Mlada always attacking, it’s hard to see why the bookies are giving 3/2 on the away win here. Ceske are good at keeping sides out, it’s true, but if Mlada take the lead then they should win this game and given that they’re one of the better attacking forces in the division, the possibility of them taking the lead here is rather good. Therefore, backing them to win the game at 3/2 with the above in mind looks intriguing.
Verdict: Mlada Boleslav to win at 3/2.
Accumulator fodder:
Siena
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) under 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs AEL Limassol (7) under 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 0-1
French Ligue 2:
Sedan-Ardennes vs AC Ajaccio (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs VfL Bochum (7)
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Kavala (5) 1-1
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Volos (6) 1-1
Iraklis vs Aris Salonika (4) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie B:
Pescara vs Ascoli (5)
Siena vs Grosseto (8)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Emmen vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcorcon vs Cordoba (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
SC Kriens vs Wohlen (4)
Enjoy your free betting tips!