Club Brugge vs Anderlecht
FreeToday’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse encounter between heavyweights Club Brugge and Anderlecht. These two sides are amongst the biggest in the country so expect the usual fierce rivalry here.
Club Brugge have impressed me for the most part this season but have endured some bad times of late. There’s no particular reason behind their downtrend; it’s simply their attacking style that leaves them open far too often to counter-attacks and if they have an “off-day” and don’t score, then they tend to lose due to little focus on their defence, not to mention little ability there too. Only AA Gent and Racing Genk have scored more goals than Club Brugge this season so don’t underestimate the offensive prowess of Club Brugge, especially with star midfielder Vargas in superb form. This Club Brugge side averages scoring over two goals per home game, which is very commendable. However, their record of having conceded so many goals at home that only AA Gent, Lierse SK, and Charleroi have conceded more is not so commendable and has cost Club Brugge a lot of points, hence just five wins from their nine games – it could have and should have been more wins for today’s hosts. It’s no coincidence that seven out of Club Brugge’s nine home games in the Eerste Klasse this season have gone over 2.5 goals with relentless attacking and inept defending and I expect more of the same today. Club Brugge managed to rest some key players against Villarreal mid-week in the UEFA Europa League so they should be pretty fresh here and let’s face it – they need to win this game to give themselves any chance of success in the final stage of the campaign when the table is reduced to six teams to decide the overall winner. Therefore, I expect a very passionate and determined display from Club Brugge today so Anderlecht will have their hands full here.
However, Anderlecht themselves are more than capable of causing problems in this game and they at least boast a more organised defence than their hosts here. It’s unlikely to be evident in this game as centre-back Mazuch is missing for this encounter and Club Brugge are a potent attacking threat. That coupled with the still-absent Deschacht and the now-absent Bernandez weakens Anderlecht’s defence dramatically so they’re likely to concede here. Much like their hosts, Anderlecht’s strength is in attack and with midfielders Biglia and Boussouffa returning to turn their midfield back into the immense unit that it used to be, Anderlecht are beginning to look very strong in attack again. Indeed, now the pressure isn’t solely upon youngster Lukaku in attack as Suarez and De Sutter are competing for places so Anderlecht do have options in attack, more than their hosts, if truth be told. They bring good momentum into this game too on the back of a 2-0 win mid-week against Hajduk Split in the UEFA Europa League to secure their progression to the next round of the competition. Anderlecht need that momentum to continue against their rivals today so have any chance of taking three points but either way, I expect a good game here between two good, attacking sides.
Anderlecht have gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last four away games and Club Brugge have gone over 2.5 goals in seven out of their nine home games this season in the Eerste Klasse. As both sides have developed into stronger attacking units over the years, it’s no surprise to learn that the last five head-to-head meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals. With Anderlecht missing defenders and Club Brugge defending terribly, over 2.5 goals should be nothing more than a formality here.
Team news – Anderlecht miss Mazuch, Badibanga, Kouyate, Deschacht, and Bernandez.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Germinal Beerschot vs AA Gent – away win at 9/10.
Hosts Germinal Beerschot are only strong at home but they’re not even strong there this season due to a virtually completely ineffectual attack. Germinal are the lowest-scoring side in the Eerste Klasse with an average of just over a goal scored per every two games. True, they’ve only lost three out of nine at home in the Eerste Klasse but that’s entirely down to solid defending as they’ve registered an appalling four goals at home this season. They’ve now not scored in four consecutive home games, losing three times along the way, so morale is lessening for Germinal and goals are becoming harder and harder to come by. Could anything be worse for Germinal on the back of ten games without a win? Sure it could! They’re missing Negrao for this game, who is not only their leading goalscorer with half their goals this season but is also their best striker by a mile. In a nutshell – I don’t expect to see anything from GBA today.
Can AA Gent do the necessary damage though? Well, they really should be able to, in my opinion. They’ve not won here for a few years now but everything favours them from their hosts and a lot of things favour them from their perspective too. A 3-0 defeat in France mid-week against LOSC Lille was a stumbling block as they’ve now crashed out of the UEFA Europa League but they can now focus on their domestic campaign instead. Gent are having a good season too, currently sat in third place in the Eerste Klasse table. They’ve won three consecutive Eerste Klasse games so ignoring the Lille defeat, Gent should still bring some good momentum into this game. Gent have already won five out of nine on the road this season, which is a record bettered only by Anderlecht, so they’re certainly proving to be a force domestically this season. They average scoring nearly two goals per away game due to boasting one of the best attacks in the division in terms of depth and variety with Arbeitmann, Ljubljankic, De Smet, El Ghanassy, and Coulibaly in their arsenal. They have a strong midfield with Smolders, Azofeifa, Thijs, and Grondin although any absence there is notable as it isn’t their strongest area depth-wise. Defence is their weakest area, however, as they enjoy conceding goals for fun in random games. I don’t expect that to be an issue today though; not with GBA missing their best striker!
Although Gent are riding a compact run of fixtures lately, I still fancy them to win this. They may be dubious in defence but GBA are utterly impotent in attack and with Gent having such a good quality of attackers at their disposal, there should be value in the away win today at 9/10.
Team news – Germinal miss Pacovski, Dudu, and Negrao.
Verdict: AA Gent to win at 9/10.
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Olympiakos Nicosia vs Ermis – both sides to score at 4/5.
Olympiakos have played fourteen Division 1 games this season and they’ve scored in twelve of them. I’ve been tremendously impressed by their dogged determination not to lose against anyone and they’ve only lost four games as a result. They’ve yet to master the winning side of things but they’re arguably the most resilient side in Cyprus currently, despite still being new to the division, so they need to be taken seriously here. They gave AEL Limassol a real fright last match and only a late winner for AEL Limassol say Olympiakos leave empty-handed. For my money, Olympiakos are the better side here but Ermis can be a real handful sometimes, something which is well-illustrated by the fact that only APOEL Nicosia have beaten them in their last five games in all competitions. Ermis have scored in four of those games and again, only APOEL Nicosia are the thorn in their side there. However, I fancy them to score today despite them being a poor away side as Ermis chairman Lucas Fanierou Charalambous has paid all the players what they’re owed at long last but has warned that he expects to win this game in return for clearing the debts owed to the players. I don’t think it quite works that way in business, Lucas, but I can’t think of a great incentive for Ermis than that! Olympiakos score goals for fun but they can concede too so I think a determined Ermis should give them a run for their money here. The 1×2 odds don’t interest me for this game but backing both sides to score at 4/5 looks a good value bet today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This one speaks for itself, really. Two of the heavyweights of Ligue 1 football lock horns at the Stade Velodrome with both sides needing points after respective stuttering starts. Both have played well sporadically in recent times but neither are particularly secure at the back and that should really be highlighted in this game. Marseille are missing defenders Azpilicueta, Diawara, and Hilton and although only two are regulars in the team, they’re still hefty losses in a big game, especially with midfield engine Mbia and target man Brandao also missing. Therefore, we can expect Marseille to concede today against their bitter rivals Lyon. However, on the injury front, Lyon are very much crippled themselves with defenders Diakhate, Cris, and Reveillere all missing for this game so you can expect them to concede in this game for sure, especially with holding midfielder Toulalan also absent for this game. I’m not brave enough to enter this game in terms of the 1×2 market with so many important players missing. However, all of the absentees do seem to point toward more goals being scored as most absences are in defence for both sides. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals in this rivalry match, just as it has been for the past three head-to-heads between these two sides and just as it has been for five consecutive head-to-heads at the Stade Velodrome!
Team news – Marseille miss Brandao, Diawara, Azpilicueta, Hilton and Mbia whereas Lyon miss Gourcuff, Reveillere, Diakhate, Cris, Grenier, Ederson, Delgado, and Toulalan.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
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VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich – away win at 4/5.
You don’t need me to tell you how bad VfB Stuttgart have been so far this season in the Bundesliga – a quick glance at the table will show you that! Only Borussia Moenchengladbach have lost more home games than Stuttgart with Stuttgart having lost four out of eight on their own turf in the Bundesliga this season. Bizarrely, only Bayern Munich themselves have scored more home goals than Stuttgart despite Stuttgart being in the relegation zone currently. However, thirteen of those goals were scored against bottom-placed Borussia Moenchengladbach and a vastly under-strength Werder Bremen respectively so don’t read much into that record! Indeed, with Marica missing for Stuttgart today and Cacau out-of-form, it’s hard to see where Stuttgart’s goals are coming from with only target man Pogrebnyak of sufficient quality to score for them. Indeed, Stuttgart’s only consistent threat should be coming from Serbian winger Kuzmanovic so if Bayern mark him properly then I really don’t expect to see much of Stuttgart today, especially with just one goal scored in their past two home games in the Bundesliga.
Bayern Munich haven’t got the best record at Stuttgart but if they can’t change that today then I wash my hands of them! Ribery is back so half of their attack is back in business and it’s showed in recent weeks for Bayern too. Bayern’s away record of just one win in seven Bundesliga games this season isn’t flattering at all but I attribute that statistic to Bayern having missed star duo Robben and Ribery for the majority of the current season. Bayern lost 2-0 at Schlake 04 in their last away game but to be honest, they could have and should have scored at least two goals themselves so don’t read too much into that outcome! With three wins from their last four games, momentum sides with Bayern and with injured players returning for them each week, it’s easy to see why they’ve started beating sides easily again and should do so again today.
Bayern aren’t at 100% but they’re the closest that they’ve been to it so far this season so they need to be taken seriously here. Bayern’s biggest flaw is not taking their chances away from home but Stuttgart are really rather short on talent this season so if Bayern can’t take three points here then I give up with them! 4/5 on the away win here looks good odds to me as Stuttgart definitely aren’t what they were so my call is the away win here.
Team news – Stuttgart miss Marica, Celozzi, Didavi, and Audel whereas Bayern miss Kroos, Pranjic, Olic, and Robben.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 4/5.
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Lazio vs Udinese – home win at evens.
I really have to favour Lazio here. They’ve impressed me an awful lot this season, especially so at home, and I expect another impressive display today. The only side to win at the Stadio Olimpico against Lazio this season was bitter rivals AS Roma, which is a bit of a curved ball as both sides share the stadium! AC Milan managed to claim a draw here and a very gritty Catania display lately earned them a draw too but Lazio have beaten everyone else; a list which includes SSC Napoli and Internazionale so they’re to be taken seriously at home. I have my concerns for Lazio defensively with Radu missing but with Hernanes and Zarate in their team, they pose a consistently good attacking threat and I expect that to count for more today, to be blunt.
Udinese lost 3-1 here last season and a similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise me despite Udinese possessing a full-strength squad today as Udine have never travelled well. They’ve improved dramatically since the start of their Serie A campaign but five defeats in eight away games have left them vulnerable away from home. It’s a shame, really, as their away record defensively is pretty damn impressive; they just don’t score enough away goals to counter the goals scored against them. Nobody can doubt the quality of this side with Di Natale, Sanchez, and Inler in their team. However, Udinese operate at half of their potential away from home in general and if they do that today then they’ll lose against a very good Lazio side, to be blunt! It won’t help Udine’s morale that they’ve lost three consecutive away games ahead of this encounter, losing at Parma in their most recent defeat, so I don’t fancy their chances here today.
The only weak point in this tip is the absence of Radu, in my view – he’s a big part of Lazio’s defence. However, Lazio have a very solid side this year, especially at home, so I think backing them to win at home at evens against a poor-travelling Udinese side represents some decent value today.
Team news – Lazio miss Radu, Brocchi, and Floccari.
Verdict: Lazio to win at evens.
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Catania vs Brescia – home win at evens.
Catania have a lot of absentees for this game, worryingly! They’re missing Mascara in attack, which is a blow but they should be able to handle that whilst playing at home. However, they’re missing Spolli, Potenza, and Terlizzi in defence so they may be vulnerable defensively today. I’m not as concerned as I probably should be with those absentees, however, as Sicily is a very intimidating venue for an away game and the fact that only Juventus have won at Catania this season indicates that well. Indeed, I’d also be more afraid if Catania were hosting a good side but Bresica have been poor since obtaining promotion from Serie B and could be poised to make a swift return there if they’re not careful. Brescia are particularly susceptible away from home as six defeats in eight Serie A away games indicates very well indeed. Only rock-bottom Bari have scored less goals than Brescia have this season with Brescia averaging conceding 1.5 goals per away game and scoring a goal per every two away games. Brescia also have their absences, however, with striker Caracciolo (who will be bitterly disappointed as an ex-Palermo player!), midfielders Cordova and Kone, as well as defender Zebina, all of which are important players for Brescia. If it comes down to the second string of both sides, I still favour Catania here, especially at home, and they should be able to win this game with their traditionally strong home advantage.
The important thing here is that Catania take their chances, which in practice, means providing Argentinian striker Maxi Lopez with then necessary service. Fortunately, Catania do have the likes of Gomez, Izco, and Ledesma available in midfield to provide their fellow countryman with the necessary chances in attack and that’s frankly what convinced me to tip a Catania win today as I don’t see Brescia capitalising on Catania’s defensive absences. Catania won this fixture 5-1 a few weeks ago in the Coppa Italia; I doubt we’ll see a similar scoreline here but you can see how good Catania can be at home, thus reinforcing my point. I therefore have no option but to call a home win here for a strong home side.
Team news – Catania miss Terlizzi, Potenza, Biagianti, Mascara, and Spolli whereas Brescia miss Zebina, Kone, Cordova, and Caracciolo.
Verdict: Catania to win at evens.
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VVV Venlo vs FC Utrecht – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
This bet hinges around one predominant factor; the absence of Van Wolfswinkel. The promising striker was stretched off against Liverpool mid-week and a tired FC Utrecht side now have to somehow hope to beat a poor VVV Venlo side without the leading line of their attack. You could be forgiven for thinking that the necessary replacements would be available for him in the FC Utrecht ranks but to be honest, Demouge, Mulenga, and Zullo are all missing too so where are their goals coming from – Duplan? I’d be surprised to see it. To make matters worse for Utrecht, they miss creative midfielder Lensky too so I just cannot fathom where Utrecht’s goals will come from here. They’ve only scored ten goals in ten away games in the Eredivisie this season and I’d be surprised to see that having improved when this game has ended. VVV Venlo are a poor side, admittedly, but they recognise the problems that they’ve got and that every point counts. I’m sure they can smell blood in Utrecht’s team with most of their attackers missing so I expect a determined display from VVV in this game. VVV’s problem is that they don’t score enough goals and arguably their most potent threat in front of goal (Uchebo) is a doubt for this game so where will their goals come from? Neither side is particularly good defensively but Utrecht are unlikely to be troubled by VVV’s ineffectual attack if he’s not playing so I just can’t see how this game will produce goals.
That said, this is the Eredivisie; home of the random results, so do approach with caution. However, with the above in mind, 11/10 on under 2.5 goals in this game looks far too generously priced so that’s my call here.
Team news – VVV miss Verbeek, Ofrany, Linssen, and Gentenaar whilst having doubts over Toth, Van Kouwen, Uchebo, and Ahahaoui. Utrecht miss Van Wolfswinkel, Zullo, Mulenga, Demouge, Sinouh, Lensky, and Schut.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
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Maritimo Funchal vs Portimonense – home win at 3/4.
I know Maritimo have had a poor season but to give them 3/4 to beat a newly-promoted side in Madeira is a joke! Yes, Maritimo are missing their star striker Kleber but Portimonense gift goals to every side that they face due to them not being good enough! I’m not sure how they’ll resolve that issue in time for this game so I can only expect a home win here. Maritimo aren’t the best goalscorers in the Liga Sagres but they’ve won back-to-back games now, beating Vitoria Guimaraes and Academica de Coimbra in convincing fashion so they being a lot of confidence into this game and that genuinely should be enough for them today. Portimonense won’t lie down here; they’ve not lay down for anyone this season. However, without promising Renatinho available to them, as well as Ivanildo, Portimonense look very weak in attack for this game. Maritimo are always a solid side defensively so if Portimonense fall behind here with those two players missing, I can’t see anything but a home win occurring in this game. The missing Kleber is a concern but Maritimo are almost certainly too good for their opponents today and it should be visible by the final whistle today. For me, 3/4 on a home win for what I personally class as a top seven side against a side that are very unlikely to be in the division next year (due to a lack of quality) looks a gift to me!
Team news – Maritimo miss Fernando, Briguel, and Kleber whereas Portimonense miss Silva, Ivanildo, Aragoney, and Renatinho.
Verdict: Maritimo Funchal to win at 3/4.
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Cartagena vs Las Palmas – home win at evens.
Cartagena haven’t been as strong in the Segunda Liga this season as they were last year but they’ve still been a force with four wins in eight home games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game. They endured a tough start to their campaign but no defeats in four games, including three wins along the way, has given them the perfect springboard to bounce their way back up towards the likes of Real Betis Balompie and they’re taking that opportunity well. Indeed, this particular good run was started by a 2-1 win at home to Real Betis Balompie and they’ve since won at Real Valladolid and at Ponferradina, both of which I personally class as difficult away games. Cartagena are starting to get their swagger back and that spells danger when they do as they’re such a dominant possession side that other sides find it hard to overcome them. Lastly, on top of Cartagena’s undeniable momentum, they’re also facing a Las Palmas side that they did the double over last season so I have to favour the hosts here.
I feel sorry for Las Palmas, truth be told. They have to make one hell of a journey from the Canary Islands whenever they have to play an away game and although this is one of the shorter journeys that they have to make, it’s still an unenviable fact! That aside, Las Palmas simply aren’t playing well with just two wins in twelve Segunda Liga games, both of which were at home and one of which was against relegation-threatened Albacete. They’ve lost three out of their last four games, including a 0-3 drubbing at home by Deportivo Xerez last match so confidence is ebbing lower for the visitors today. They’re conceding far too many goals and that’s a dangerous thing to be taking to a strong possession side like Cartagena. Las Palmas can be a good side on their day but they’re demoralised and aren’t travelling well (as usual!) so I have to favour the hosts here.
For me, evens on a Cartagena win looks too generous to be overlooked so the home win is my call here.
Team news – Las Palmas miss Tironn, Jorge, and Juanpe.
Verdict: Cartagena to win at evens.
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Accumulator fodder:
Aris Salonika, Olympiakos Piraeus, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, AZ Alkmaar, Maritimo Funchal, Porto, Real Madrid, Besiktas JK.
Recommended bets:
AA Gent, Olympiakos Piraeus, and Maritimo Funchal at 4/1.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, and AZ Alkmaar at 2/1.
Real Madrid, Cartagena, and Porto at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Central Coast Mariners (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Anderlecht (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Germinal Beerschot vs AA Gent (7) 1-2
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Union Espanola (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Colombian Primera A:
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Tolima (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs Omonia Nicosia (7) 0-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Ermis (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
West Bromwich Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) over 2.5 goals
Blackpool vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (7) 2-0
Sochaux vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) both sides to score
Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg (6) both sides to score
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich (6) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs Paderborn (7) under 2.5 goals
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Energie Cottbus (4) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Osnabruck vs Ingolstadt (5) over 2.5 goals
Greek Super League:
Aris Salonika vs Xanthi (8) under 2.5 goals
Kerkyra Corfu vs PAOK Salonika (5) 1-1
Iraklis vs AEK Athens (5) 1-1
Larissa vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Lazio vs Udinese (7) 2-1
Bari vs Palermo (4) 1-1
Chievo Verona vs Juventus (5) 1-2
Catania vs Brescia (7) 1-0
Parma vs Bologna (6) 2-1
SSC Napoli vs Lecce (8) under 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Genoa (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (8) 2-0
VVV Venlo vs FC Utrecht (4) under 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen (8) 2-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Roda JC Kerkrade (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal vs Portimonense (8) 2-0
Naval de Maio vs Uniao de Leiria (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Olhanense vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 0-0
Pacos de Ferreira vs Porto (8) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Almeria vs Getafe (4) 1-0, draw no bet
Osasuna vs Real Zaragoza (5) 1-0
Malaga vs Atletico Madrid (6) 1-1
Real Madrid vs Sevilla CF (8) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Las Palmas (7)
Barcelona II vs Ponferradina (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Manisaspor vs Istanbul BB (5) 1-1
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray (4) 0-1
Kasimpasa vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-1
Besiktas JK vs Gaziantepspor (8) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!