Colchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
FreeApologies for the lack of coverage on the Dutch Eerste Divisie tonight – the bookies don’t appear to have put odds on anywhere whilst I write this update! I’ve posted my selections anyway but feel free to ask if you wish to know my thoughts on any of the listed games as I’m sure that by the time this post is read there will then be odds listed on most bookmakers’ sites.
Today’s featured game is the League One encounter between Colchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion. Colchester are bidding to make a swift return to the Championship following relegation last season and are well-placed to do so after an impressive season. Brighton will count themselves fortunate to still be in this division by next season with the seasiders battling valiantly against relegation.
Colchester United have been very strong at home this season, winning thirteen times in sixteen League One games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and only Millwall boast a better defensive record that tonight’s hosts. Only league leaders Norwich City have won more home games than Colchester so backing tonight’s hosts at home is becoming something of a common thing! Colchester have won their last four home games consecutively, scoring seven times and conceding just once. They appear to have the right blend of potency and defensive reliability, enough so for them to achieve promotion to the Championship this season if they continue as they are. Colchester play good football and are one of the top sides in the division so it’s no surprise to see them where they are. Colchester have won three out of their last five games, losing just once along the way, so their momenum is good too.
Visitors Brighton have a superb away record for reasons I’ve not really been able to work out yet! They simply score a lot of goals away from home and although they concede a lot of goals too, Brighton tend to end up avoiding defeat in their away games, having succumbed to just four defeats in seventeen away games. Only league leaders Norwich City have scored more away goals than relegation-battling Brighton & Hove Albion so the visitors are a threat in most away games which is why I suspect that the odds are so good for tonight’s home win when compared to the quality gap between the two sides. However, what he bookies have considered is that Brighton’s list of defeats on the road, small as it is, follow a similar pattern – they lose to sides that are better than they are by a substantial amount. Three of their four away defeats in League One this season have been on trips to Swindon Town, Norwich City, and Huddersfield Town respectively – all sides that are a lot better than Brighton. Although the visitors aren’t going to make life easy for Colchester United today, you have to feel that they’re going to be dealt with by their talented hosts in a similar way to their contemporaries before them.
Brighton are on a good run of form with no defeats in three games, winning twice along the way, but they’re facing a side that are a lot better than they are today. Brighton’s potency will be put to the test by a strong Colchester defence as they travel to one of the toughest sides in the division. Although the fairytale may continue for Brighton after this game, I can only see them losing to a Colchester side that is not only strong at home but is twice the side that Brighton are.
Verdict: Colchester United to win at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Colon de Santa Fe – away win at 5/4.
Hosts Arsenal de Sarandi boast a bizarre record in the Clausura this season; they’re the only side to have lost every home game without scoring a goal. It’s not like Arsenal have faced sides with the calibre of Velez Sarsfield for all three games either, although the first game was undeniably Velez Sarsfield, but the other two defeats were against Tigre and Chacarita Juniors – two of the weakest sides in the Primera Division. The fact that Arsenal have even failed to score against their contemporaries is frankly disgraceful and is sure to have damaged them mentally. That said, Arsenal won their last game 3-2 at Rosario Central so tonight’s hosts do bring some momentum into this game. However, goal-shy displays and atrocious defending tend to mean that the bigger sides beat you and that is what stares Arsenal in the face tonight.
Colon de Santa Fe are one of the better sides in Argentina currently and have shown it sporadically in their current campaign, winning three times in seven games. Colon have played four away games in the Clausura, winning once, drawing twice, and losing once. Colon’s biggest flaw is not scoring enough goals but that shouldn’t be an issue against an Arsenal side that cannot keep a clean sheet. Colon have played Velez Sarsfield, Banfield, Tigre, and Chacarita Juniors on the road so far so losing just once during those games looks a bit more respectable than the cold statistics alone suggest. Colon scored twice in each of their two games against the weaker opponents – Tigre and Chacarita Juniors – beating one side and drawing with the other. If Colon formulate their haphazard defence into any kind of shape ahead of tonight’s game then they’ll surely win the game because they’re twice the side that Arsenal are and they’re more than capable of scoring goals.
Although Argentina’s Primera Division has been somewhat frustrating lately, I’m hoping that comes to an end tonight. Arsenal de Sarandi are one of the weakest sides in the division and they’re hosting one of the better sides. With Arsenal yet to register a goal or a point in three home games and Colon de Santa Fe scoring goals for fun, you have to feel that the away win does bear considerable value tonight.
Verdict: Colon de Santa Fe to win at 5/4.
Sliven vs Cherno More Varna – away win at 5/4.
Sliven have fallen massively after their impressive A PFG campaign in recent times due to internal issues and player sales. Instead of competing for a European place they’re not trying their best to stay in the division – they’re struggling, too. Their first game back from the winter break saw them overcome Montana 1-0 in a nervous encounter. Sliven still have enough ability to overcome fellow relegation battlers like Montana so the result was not unexpected but they struggle against some of Bulgaria’s better sides i.e. Cherno More Varna. Sliven do have a good home record this season with four wins in eight games and boast a strong defensive record too. However, they average scoring just over a goal per home game so you can see that any solid defensive side will take points from this game as Sliven don’t score enough.
Cherno More Varna are one of those sides although their away form doesn’t reflect it. They’ve lost five out of eight away games this season, scoring just six times but conceding eleven times. However, Cherno More have had a rather bizarre season and their form has suffered as a consequance. However, a good win at home to rivals Chernomorets Burgas in their first game back from the winter break should hopefully spur them on to bigger and better things – starting today. Cherno More’s ability isn’t in question – only their consistency. Let’s not forget that Cherno More feature somewhat regularly in European football with appearances in the UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup for two seasons running, just in case you were doubting their ability! I have a lot of faith in Cherno More’s ability and although it’s a shade early to call whether they’ll continue in their haphazard ways or will build some kind of consistency up, I’m prepared to take the risk that they will as they’re the better of these two sides by some way.
However, there is an additional factor that should be taken into consideration before betting on this game but don’t worry – it should favour the selection! Bulgaria is one of the bigger places for corruption in football in Europe nowadays as has been proven numerous times in recent years and as a result you do get some rather fishy results from time to time. Generally, when head-to-head results follow in a certain pattern then they tend to continue in a pattern, let’s put it that way. Cherno More have won all three of their encounters with Sliven without even conceding a goal, winning twice at home and once away. Whereas I’m not suggesting for one second for legal reasons that this game is actually fixed, I’m saying that if there is fixing to be done then it could very well be in a game like this as past records do tend to support.
Anyway, the away win is good value and I think Cherno More have what it takes to do the damage today.
Verdict: Cherno More Varna to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Arminia Bielefeld, Valencia CF, Slavia Prague
Recommended bets:
Just the one for me today – Slavia Prague, Colchester United, Valencia CF, and Arminia Bielefeld at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors (5) 1-0
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Rosario Central (6) 2-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Colon de Santa Fe (7) 0-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Cherno More Varna (7) 0-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Ceske Budejovice (8) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs FC Nordsjaelland (6) 1-0
English Premier League:
Wigan Athletic vs Liverpool (7) 0-1
English League One:
Colchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (8)
French Ligue 2:
Laval vs Metz (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs Karlsruher SC (8)
Greek B Ethniki:
Ionikos Nikaias vs Doxa Dramas (6)
OFI Crete vs Kerkyra (7)
Italian Serie B:
Piacenza vs Reggina (5)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6) over 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs Volendam (7)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Oss (4)
Omniworld vs Go Ahead Eagles (6)
Zwolle vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7) over 2.5 goals
Helmond Sport vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
MVV Maastricht vs Eindhoven (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Emmen (5)
Telstar vs Excelsior (8)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs CD Nacional (5) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Brasov vs SC Vaslui (6) under 2.5 goals
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Universitatea Craiova (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Albirex Niigata (6) 0-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Valencia CF vs Racing Santander (8) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Thun vs Winterthur (6) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Galatasaray (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!