De Graafschap vs Den Bosch
FreeEerste Divisie leaders De Graafschap today entertain high-flying Den Bosch with both sides undefeated in their last five games. Although I rate Den Bosch as one of the better sides in the division, De Graafschap were in the Eredivisie last year and are looking every inch the side that they were in that league, something illustrated well by the fact that they’ve won all seven of their home games this season, averaging nearly three goals scored per game. De Graafschap have also only lost once this season so to say that they’re strolling this league would be something of an understatement. Den Bosch got off to a slightly sluggish start but have looked the part ever since then as an impressive run of form has seen them climb to fifth in the Eerste Divisie table. Den Bosch will enter this game with a lot of momentum, much like their hosts, and have only lost once on the road this season. However, it’s difficult for me to look beyond just how good De Graafschap are at home, particularly with the quality available to them and the experience in their squad. Although I expect Den Bosch to give them a run for their money, the home win at 5/6 looks very good value indeed tonight.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch – home win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.
Hungary U21 vs Italy U21 – away win at 5/6. I’m sticking my neck out for this one, given the fact that Italy U21 have failed to win some silly games of late, but I’m confident in Hungary U21’s ability to not turn up! The hosts have won three of their last seven games with the only sides they’ve beaten being San Marino U21 and Luxembourg U21 (twice). If we take those out of the equation, Hungary U21 have lost 4-1 away to Wales U21, 8-0 away to Serbia U21, 1-0 away to Latvia U21, and 1-0 at home to Belarus U21. So that means that Hungary U21 have big problems scoring against sides that can match them, generally speaking. For all of Italy U21’s complacency issues, they’re more than capable of getting a goal out of this game regardless of how they play. Logic tells you that if one side can’t score and the other can then the away win at 5/6 has to pose considerable value!
Chacarita Juniors vs Newell’s Old Boys – away win at 21/20. Hosts Chacarita Juniors have only lost one of their last five games, which sees a bit of a break in their trend of poor form. Their defeat was an acceptable one, too, as they were crushed by Boca Juniors 3-0 away from home. Chacarita Juniors even managed a frankly heroic 3-0 away win against Lanus last match, a result that baffles me on various levels! Nonetheles, they’ve got another tough game today against a very in-form Newell’s Old Boys side that have easily got the best form in the Primera Division currently. They’ve won their last five games on the bounce and boast the best away form in the division with four wins on the road out of seven games, losing just once. Although Chacarita Juniors have played well lately, their home form shows how susceptible they can be with three defeats in six home games. They don’t score enough goals at home and Newell’s Old Boys almost certainly will. With all this in mind, the away win at 21/20 does look rather inviting in my opinion!
Lithuania U21 vs Republic of Macedonia U21 – away win at 5/2. This is is a very risky call given that there’s really not much quality difference between these two sides but there remains one fundamental difference currently; goalscoring. Lithuania U21 have lost eight of their last nine games, drawing the other game away to Republic of Macedonia U21 a few weeks ago, ironically. In that time, Lithuania U21 have scored just three goals, which is an average of a goal every three games a.k.a. not good enough! Visitors Republic of Macedonia U21 don’t boast the best squad in the world but they’re certainly plucky, tenacious, and free-scoring! Although without a win in their last seven games, Republic of Macedonia have gained three draws in that time. More importantly, however, they’ve scored five goals in their last three games, three of which were away from home and two of those games were against sides I consider to be better than them. Although I don’t expect this game to be one-sided, I do think that free-scoring Republic of Macedonia U21 have the greater impetus to win the game and the ability to do so. Frankly, I feel the bookies have over-priced Lithuania U21 with this in mind so the away win at 5/2 could be a very good bet today.
Spain U21 vs Finland U21 – under 2.5 goals at 5/4. This game is a replica of the group stage game played in Sweden earlier this year in the UEFA European U21 Championhips, a game which ended 2-0. Finland U21’s style is to be difficult to beat, something that was proven in the game between these two sides. There’s no real denial that Spain U21 possess the better U21 side between these two outfits, and probably one of the best in the world. However, much like their first team, Spain U21 do struggle to break down resilient defences and Finlnd U21 certainly have that if nothing else. Only one of Spain U21’s last six games has gone over 2.5 goals and that was against a poor Liechtenstein U21 side. Spain U21 have conceded a goal in those games and that looks unlikely to change against a defensive Finland U21 side. Finland U21 have looked quite poor lately, in my opinion, but nobody has scored more than two goals against them since 2006. With all this in mind, taking under 2.5 goals looks a real steal at 5/4.
Excelsior vs AGOVV Appeldoorn – home win at 3/4. Excelsior have finally begin to show their actual level ability with four wins in their past five games. They’re now fourth in the Eerste Divisie table with an unbeaten record at home that has seen them win five out of their seven home games. They’ve scored an average of nearly two goals per game at home and have only conceded four goals in their seven hom games. To put it bluntly; Excelsior are going to be a real force in this game. Visitors AGOVV Appeldoorn were immense at the start of this campaign but their run was ultimately brought to a halt, as was expected, because AGOVV Appeldoorn simply aren’t that good a side. AGOVV Appeldoorn have only lost one away game this season but their resolve will be sorely tested against a difficult Excelsior side here today, particularly as the better hosts have won this game for four seasons running now. For me, the home win at 3/4 has serious value today!
Stormvogels Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles – away win at 11/10. Hosts Stormvogels Telstar aren’t the best of sides even in the most biased of all possible opinions and their records this season do nothing to oppose this fact. They’ve achieved absolutely nothing, particularly as their away form dwarves their home form, which no side should ever be able to say! If it weren’t for RBC Roosendaal, Stormvogels Telstar would be the worst side in the Eerste Divisie when playing at home. In fact, the difference between the two sides is only marginal now! Four defeats in their last five games says that a nightmare clash with Go Ahead Eagles will be far too much for RBC Roosendaal. The hosts are amongst the highest names when it comes to conceding goals at home and with Go Ahead Eagles’ record indicating that they’ve won four of their seven away games, losing just once, the script for this game appears to already be written. All the statistics point to the away win and at 11/10 so do I!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Albania U21 vs Austria U21 (8) 0-2
Slovenia U21 vs Malta U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Hungary U21 vs Italy U21 (7) 0-1
Lithuania U21 vs Republic of Macedonia U21 (6) 0-1
Spain U21 vs Finland U21 (8) under 2.5 goals
Netherlands U21 vs Liechtenstein U21 (10) -1.75 handicap
Belgium U21 vs Ukraine U21 (6) 0-0
San Marino U21 vs Iceland U21 (8) -1.75 handicap
Northern Ireland U21 vs Germany U21 (8) 0-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs Newell’s Old Boys (8) 1-2
Tigre vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (5) 1-1
Belgian Second Division:
Eupen vs Red Star Waasland (8)
Greek B Ethniki:
Kerkyra vs Agrotikos Asteras (8)
International Friendly:
Paraguay vs Qatar (8) -1.75 handicap
Denmark U21 vs Poland U21 (6) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch (8)
Excelsior vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (8)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Veendam (5) over 2.5 goals
Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard (6)
Omniworld vs Haarlem (6)
Top Oss vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (8)
Zwolle vs Eindhoven (7)
MVV Maastricht vs Volendam (8)
RBC Roosendaal vs Helmond Sport (6)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles (7)
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Welshpool Town (6) 2-1
Neath Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Bangor City vs Airbus (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!