Defensor Sporting vs Olimpia Asuncion
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Sudamericana game in Uruguay between Defensor Sporting. Hosts Defensor Sporting are one of the biggest clubs in Uruguay and thus the club expects success, although they’ve undoubtedly been overshadowed domestically in recent years by rivals Penarol and Club Nacional de Montevideo respectively. Olimpia Asuncion are a decent side in Paraguay but little more than that nowdays despite being the oldest club in Paraguay with a host of clubs that are better than they are so their presence in this competition is a little unwelcome currently, without wanting to be harsh on them.
Defensor Sporting would probably be the first to admit that they’ve not won their domestic competition often enough but the ability is rarely lacking. Famed for having one of the best academies in Uruguay, Defensor Sporting have consistently produced brilliant young talent in the vein of Diego Perez, Sebastian Abreu, Martin Caceres, and Dario Silva. For that reason, the spirit of Defensor Sporting is always strong so they’re a side not to underestimate. Despite winning the Primera Division back in 2008, they’ve failed to impress me consistently since then with their most recent campaign relying far too heavily on Risso in attack and De Souza in midfield. Both are very good players but the likes of experienced striker Taborda needs to contribute more to Defensor’s overall play, as does arising young talent Luna in attack. The experience of Fleurquin in central midfield is paramount to Defensor’s success against anyone and they’ll need that today as they’ve been without continental football for two years now. However, they do boast a strong record in continental football at home, as do most of the big Uruguayan clubs for reasons I’ve never been able to fathom. Most South American sides have altitude advantage but that simply isn’t the case in a fairly low-lying Uruguay. Consider that Defensor have won four out of their last six home games in continental competition with their only defeat coming here against a very good River Plate back in 2008. In that time, Defensor have beaten Paraguayan sides three times – Libertad Asuncion twice and Tacuary – so they know what they’re up against today. Defensor always bring goals to their games at home and that will be pivotal to their success tonight as Olimpia don’t defend well so the hosts really need to make it count in the first leg. I have my concerns about them not having played a competitive game of football since May but their talent is somewhat undeniable.
Visitors Olimpia Asuncion are an old club that used to have big traditions but they’re just not a genuine threat anymore. They change coaches so often nowadays that the magic of Olimpia Asuncion is no longer there. Recent years has seen them overshadowed by Cerro Porteno, Nacional Asunion, Libertad Asunion, and even Guarani Asuncion with Olimpia Asunion falling further down the pecking order each year. Olimpia Asuncion emphasised that point massively during their last domestic game which saw them utterly destroyed 4-1 at home by Rubio Nu. Much like their hosts tonight, Olimpia Asuncion haven’t featured in continental competition since 2008 but their record is distinctly worse with two away games played and two games lost, losing in Chile 4-0 against giants Universidad Catolica and losing 1-0 in Bolivia against Blooming La Paz. Paraguayan sides never travel well because they’re generally not as potent as their South American neighbours are and Olimpia are no exception to that ruling. The only advantage that I’ll give to Olimpia Asuncion for this game is that they’ve got match practice with their domestic campaign already three games in but in terms of actual ability, I think Olimpia are in the shallow end of the pool here and it really ought to show by the final whistle.
Although this game should be reasonably close because of a lack of competitive game practice for the hosts, I still think that the odds on the home win are a little generous. Defensor are a big side with big traditions and although their domestic form in recent years hasn’t been great, they remain a very capable side with plenty of experience to attack their opponents with. Olimpia’s only weapon is former River Plate attacker Nelson Cuevas, who basically poses a great threat to most South American opponents at all times but Olimpia rarely pose any kind of threat without him so if Defensor nullify him then this should be game, set, and match for Defensor. Either way, the home win looks good enough to take here with home advantage being something that Defensor always utilise well and with odds a little more generous than it should be.
Verdict: Defensor Sporting to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Anderlecht vs The New Saints – home win with -2.75 handicap at 7/5.
This is a bit risky because Anderlecht have already done the job by winning the reversal of this fixture 3-1 in Wales. Anderlecht are clearly the superior side here; none of you need me to tell you that! The New Saints have played well in European competition this year and should be treated with respect. However, I feel they’re going to try and attack Anderlecht not only because they have to but also because Anderlecht have looked weak in defence without Van Damme so The New Saints may take some false hope of progression into this game. However, Anderlecht welcome back starlet Romelu Lukaku into their squad following injury, which immediately increases the potency of Anderlecht’s attack dramatically and should have The New Saints trembling, frankly. Anderlecht demonstrated just how good they can be lately when they crushed newly-promoted Eupen 4-1 at Constant Vanden Stock despite playing an abject first-half – they simply annihlated their opponents in their second-half. They’re a frustrating side like that, Anderlecht, but with such great creativity and potency in this squad, you have to feel that backing them to beat a clearly inferior side with a -2.75 goal handicap at 7/5 is worthy of your consideration, even if they don’t have to do so today!
Verdict: Anderlecht to beat the -2.75 goal handicap at 7/5.
Universidad de Chile vs Guadalajara – home win at 5/6.
This bet follows a virtually identical line to the reversal of this fixture in Mexico last week, basically. This competition is the lifeblood of Universidad de Chile whereas it’s little more than shit on the bottom of a shoe to Guadalajara. I don’t recall the exact reason that Mexican sides dismiss this competition but I seem to remember it had something to do with there being greater financial rewards domestically and in the North American Champions League hence Mexican sides rarely doing well in this competition. Indeed, the only reason that Guadalajara are in this semi-final is because they simply had no other games to play following failure at domestic level. Since then, Guadalajara’s domestic competition has started again and they’ve sold star striker Javier Hernandez to Manchester United so all is not well in their camp at the moment despite talent still being present in their side.
The FA of both Chile and Mexco themselves show how much they support/oppose this competition tonight without the clubs’ input being required, to be honest! The Chilean FA allowed Universidad de Chile to postpone their weekend trip to face Cobresal in order for them to be prepared for this game whereas Guadalajara are now playing their fourth game in ten days, albeit one of which was a friendly against Manchester United. Guadalajara are struggling to adapt to life without Hernandez and they have no interest in this competition – why would they be fancied here at all? They’re going to be tired from so many games, not to mention the lengthy flight to the west coast of South America. Guadalajara have scored in two out of their last five away games in the Copa Libertadoes and Universidad de Chile is one of the most difficult sides in South America to beat at the moment so I really fancy the hosts here.
Universidad are generally a very tenacious and strong side with the likes of Iturra often roughing up their opponents with great success. However, Universidad have really impressed me by scoring a lot of goals on the continent this season and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Although the odds on the home win are a bit shorter than I’d hoped, there really should still be value here if Guadalajara are as uninterested and tired as I expect them to be tonight.
Verdict: Universidad de Chile to win at 5/6.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Aktobe Lento (7) 2-0
Anderlecht vs The New Saints (9) -2.75 handicap
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Rapid Vienna vs Beroe (7) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Universidad de Chile vs Guadalajara (6) 1-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Defensor Sporting vs Olimpia Asuncion (7) 2-0
Austrian Liga 1:
St.Polten vs First Vienna (6)
Hartberg vs Gratkorn (5)
SCR Altach vs Grodig (8)
Lustenau vs WAC/St.Andra (4) draw no bet
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
NSI Runavik vs B36 Torshavn (7) 2-1
AB Argir vs B68 Toftir (5) 1-0
Singporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Geylang United (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!