Dinamo Minsk vs Belshina
FreeToday’s featured game is the Vysshaya Liga encounter between Dinamo Minsk and Belshina. Giants Dinamo Minsk have had a slow start to their campaign but are starting to emerge as the title contenders that they should be at last. Visitors Belshina have performed above all expectations this season following promotion and have earned plaudits from various sectors as a result so we should see quite a good game today.
Hosts Dinamo Minsk have remarkably been superb away from home and somewhat average at home this season – it tends to be the other way around for today’s hosts! Dinamo Minsk play a 4-5-1 formation that is usually very effective and sees them manipulate the ball well. They take time to get into their stride at the start of competitions, generally speaking, because this kind of formation isn’t one that allows for half-hearted effort or players lacking in match practice. However, Dinamo Minsk are very much coming into their own currently and are starting to look the force that they genuinely are again. Dinamo Minsk have only won once at home in five attempts due to a sluggish start but that one victory was their emphatic 5-1 demolition of a resilient and well-organised Torpedo Zhodino so it was an impressive one to say the least as that game is a nightmare one for sides not playing well. They won their previous game in equally impressive fashion by emerging victorious from their trip to face Dinamo Brest, which is a tough away game in the Vysshaya Liga so Dinamo Minsk’s momentum is strong and should prove a deadly addition to their overall ability.
Visitors Belshina go from strength to strength with each passing game thanks to a very well-organised side and strong momentum as a result. They don’t score anywhere near enough goals but frankly they do so well everywhere else that they tend to have enough to get by in this league. If goalscoring is all they need to sharpen up on then I think they can safely call the season ahead a success already. However, there are limits to the tenacity of Belshina and it’s going to be tested today in one of the toughest away games that a Belarusian side can make. They impressed me with their win at a difficult Dnepr Mogilev last match and have only lost once in five away games this season, winning three times along the way, so it’s easy to see why the bookies have priced this game so tentatively today – well, if they view the statistics from this season alone, that is. However, their one away defeat of the season came against giants BATE Borisov, showing that even the tenacity of today’s opponents has limits when encoutering real quality and I’m expecting a similar type of experience for them today. Belshina are very dangerous on the counter-attack but against a strong Dinamo Minsk side that love to defend, you have to feel they’re up against it to prolong their excellent run. Belshina have started to concede goals of late, something they hadn’t really done earlier in the season and this is the kind of game where conceding the first goal will hurt them. Belshina lost their first game of the season at home to Dinamo Minsk 2-0 so they know the task that is in front of them. As vigilant and tireless as Belshina are, I can’t see them being able to match the dominating quality of Dinamo Minsk today so I think they’re going to get another lesson in football by one of Belarus’ giants.
Dinamo Minsk have always been one of the top dogs in Belarus and it’s their excellent youth academy which has allowed that to be the case. Current prodigies Sergey Kislyak, Dmitriy Rekish, and Anton Putsilo are rapidly forming a deadly threesome in midfield for Dinamo Minsk, scoring goals for fun despite their tender age. Kislyak has impressed on the international scene for Belarus and takes a wicked set piece and is likely to move on in the forthcoming transfer window if the right offer comes along as the talent is already there. However, Dinamo’s manipulation of the ball allows players of their ability and promise the time to develop and it’s worked excellently for today’s hosts, which is useful as their lone target man Aleksandr Sazankov isn’t the best in the world but certainly puts in a shift. An early goal for Dinamo here is welcome as Belshina are a resilient side but a young side like Dinamo Minsk will take great encouragement from their excellent results of late and I fully expect them to overcome their hard-working but frankly inferior opponents today at odds that I believe the bookies have priced wrongly due to statistics based upon the current season alone – Dinamo should be 8/13 here really!
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Avai vs Fluminense – home win at evens.
Both of these sides have unfortunate reputations for being able to surprise sides. Both sides are frankly capable of beating anyone in this division on their day, which makes this a very dubious game to bet on.
However, I’m siding with Avai today. I was disappointed by their lacklustre defeat at newly-promoted Ceara last match but we must remember that Avai’s strength is their home form as just three defeats in nineteen home games indicated last season despite that season being their maiden voyage in Serie A. Avai aren’t the best side defensively but they compensate for that fact by scoring a lot of goals and let’s face it – that’s a pretty damn good philosophy and they tend to enjoy a lot of success and respect because of it. Avai have continued their innate ability at home this season with two wins and one draw from three home games, notching up eight goals along the way but surprisingly only conceding once. Either way, the trip to face Avai is not an easy one at all and that works in the favour of the hosts an awful lot, hence their home dominance, which is why I have to give them a chance tonight at good odds.
Visitors Fluminense are a side I respect a lot. Don’t judge them on last year; it as a one-off bad campaign and one that is better remaining in the past. They’re a big side and a good side to boot. They don’t score enough goals, arguably, but their resilience is one of the strongest in Brazil in my opinion and that counts for a lot in a league where all of the players are trying to escape to another league as it can lead to lacklustre and withdrawn displays from opposing sides. Fluminense were unlucky to lose at Corinthians lately after a solid display but have made up for it since with three consecutive wins against bitter rivals Flamengo, a visit to an Atletico Mineiro side that is only strong at home (coming from a goal down to win 3-1!), and a home win against Vitoria. Fluminense’s resilience is not to be underestimated at any point and nor is their ability to find goals when they need them, which is why I was dubious about backing Avai tonight.
However, despite this bet being risky, whilst the odds are at evens or above, it’s worth a shot. Fluminense’s weakness is on the road and whereas I respect the visitors an awful lot, they do tend to get exposed on the road. They lost here 3-2 last season and to be honest a similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise me. Expect a great game with plenty of goals but whilst Avai are at good odds like this, they’re worth a punt.
Verdict: Avai to win at evens.
AC Oulu vs FC Honka Espoo – under 1.5 goals at 11/5.
This is quite a daring bet but one that could be fruitful and thus is worth a punt.
Read a lot into AC Oulu’s win at Inter Turku at your own peril; I expected them not to lose that game because Inter Turku weren’t playing well and it duly happened. AC Oulu are always a horrible opponent to face when an out-of-form side faces them because AC Oulu possess a tenacity that no other Veikkausliiga side can match; that of a side which is desperate for survival. That in itself is hard to play against on a regular basis, let alone when you’re out of form as Inter Turku were. However, AC Oulu are facing a very good FC Honka Espoo side today and on that basis alone I don’t expect the hosts to score. However, despite Honka’s blatant superiority, they’ve been dreadful away from home in the Veikkausliiga this season. I don’t know if it’s because they started the campaign without talismanic striker Vuorinen or whatever by frankly scoring one goal in three away games isn’t the mark of a top two side. This record won’t last, of course – Honka are capable of scoring three goals in every away game in the Veikkausliiga and at somepoint they will start to do that. However, my bet relies upon them remaining in the doldrums a tad longer than I’d like (as an actual Honka supporter of sorts!) but that is likely given that they failed to score in a drubbing at HJK Helsinki in the Suomen Cup and failed to score against lowly VPS Vaasa at home of late so they’re going to be a bit nervous about this game today.
AC Oulu will make this game hard for Honka but I don’t envision the hosts scoring – I just don’t think they’re good enough. Will Honka score? Maybe. 4/5 is quite tempting for the away win but I’m ignoring that in favour of calling under 1.5 goals because I’m not confident that Honka will score. Either way, this call looks a good value one if things happen as I expect them to.
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 11/5.
Hameenlinna vs PS Kemi Kings – away win at 13/10.
We got fucked over by backing Kemi Kings in their last away game but I’ll give them one more chance as the odds are too good to turn down.
Hameenlinna are not as bad as the Ykkonen table makes out; fact. They don’t score enough goals but when they’re in-form, they’re a damn hard side to beat. However, the fact is that this season hasn’t been kind to them. Only a weak TPV Tampere side have conceded more goals than Hameelinna with today’s hosts averaging conceding over two goals per game. Most of those goals have been leaked on the road but Hameenlinna’s ever-impotent attack has scored just twice at home in this campaign so they’ve still lost two out of their three home games despite not conceding that many. Hameelinna’s record is misleading with with momentum against them as well as goals against them, it’s hard to do anything but oppose them at the moment.
Visitors PS Kemi Kings are one of the few sides in this division with genuine ability. They’re one of just four Ykkonen sides yet to lose an away game so they’re certainly capable of playing football away from home. They do tend to lack scoring goals away from home, which is a tad concerning against an occasionally able Hameenlinna defence, particulary with the visitors entering this game on the back of two games without scoring. However, ability-wise, Kemi Kings are certainly capable of doing it and I’ve probably got a bit too much faith in them to do so but odds of 13/10 are good value to back a good side to win a game anywhere, frankly. Kemi Kings have a nightmare list of head-to-head encounters with Hameelinna but that should spur them on rather than hinder them as they’ll seldom get better opportunities to overcome today’s opponents so I’ll give them a chance of taking three points from this game today.
Verdict: PS Kemi Kings to win at 13/10.
Netherlands vs Hungary – both sides to score at 11/10.
A lot of people are fawning over the idea of the handicap here and I won’t deny that Netherlands are capable of achieving it but I’m just not convinced because they concede too many goals at the moment. “Total football” is very pleasing on the eye and respectable but it does leave your defence open and Netherlands have found that in every game of late, conceding against Mexico, Ghana, and USA respectively but only beating the -1.75 goal handicap once against samba-defending Ghana and frankly that was fortunate after Netherlands conceded with approximately ten minutes remaining as the scoreline went to 2-1. There’s not even a pattern to the sides that are scoring against them; there’s no particular weakness to expose other than that Netherlands are simply weak at the back due to their attacking exploits. It’s commendable but they’ll be hurt on a bad day. Hungary are better organised than any of those sides that Netherlands have faced, in my opinion, so they should be treated with respect here. I don’t envision them conceding heavily barring a very abject display that I don’t believe they’re capable of making here so I’d be very wary of the handicap. However, I do think Hungary can score here as everyone else has against Netherlands of late and Hungary certainly have the ability to do so so why not?
I ultimately expect Netherlands to win the game but the only value I can see in the game is backing both sides to score as that’s happened in all of the Netherlands’ last three games consecutively despite facing inferior opponents each time so I don’t see why an able Hungary can’t score against them today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
South Africa vs Denmark – under 2.5 goals at 4/6.
4/6 is far from what I deem good value generally speaking but this looks damn good value to me on the basis that South Africa can’t score with a penalty and that Denmark don’t enjoy scoring or conceding goals…ever, really. There’s even potentially some value in a Denmark win here despite them being the away side because although South Africa enter this game on the back of a good run of form, they’ve played some samba sides that cannot defend and have scored largely from penalties so I really wouldn’t reach much into their form. I expect even a half-arsed Denmark side to at least keep a clean sheet here but a resolute Denmark should win this by a goal or two at most. Denmark’s last two games have gone under and South Africa are frankly impotent so going under 2.5 goals at 4/6 should be good value on the basis that I’d expect it to be a lot shorter for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/6.
Romania vs Honduras – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
One word; pitch. Austria isn’t a country you’d associate with a monsoon season but frankly I can’t describe the weather there currently as anything other than monsoon-esque. As a result, a hell of a lot of the games are going under 2.5 goals because nobody can play football on the quagmire pitches as a result, naturally. Romania have enough problems internally as it is with a real lack of quality and Honduras have the problem that they’re facing sides that can defend against them rather easily (as Azerbaijan discovered last match) so we have two fairly impotent sides meeting here with a very good chance of this game being 0-0 or 1-0. Don’t get me wrong – Romania are capable of blowing Honduras away here but they’re not in the right mindset to do so and have no motivation to do so so I’d expect a very under 2.5 goals game here and a very boring game too as a result – I’m just surprised that the odds are so generous on that selection.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Stromsgodset vs Tromso – away win at 8/5.
I hate myself for this bet as I like both of these sides a lot and you’ll probably never see me go against Stromsgodset again this season whilst they play at home but I cannot possibly overlook these odds today.
The Gutan are in tremendous form and top the table deservedly thanks to unbelievably efficient displays and thus travel to Drammen today with tremendous confidence and momentum. They’ve won three out of six away games already this season thanks to a cast-iron defence. Tromso are notorious for not scoring goals but their 1-0 and 2-1 wins are enough; three points are making their way to Tromso more often than not so they have to be taken very seriously here today. Stromsgodset are a difficult away side to play at the best of times because their fortress in Drammen has kept them in the Eliteserien for some time now. They’ve won five out of seven home games this season and score nearly two goals per home game on average so they’re a tough side to overcome on their own turf. However, recent form has persuaded me to take the risky away win here because Stromsgodset’s young side are showing their immaturity and defensive inability by losing four consecutive Eliteserien games, conceding a hefty seven goals in their last two home games alone! Stromsgodset will always be a threat at home but they’re conceding so heavily and thus are playing demoralised football and will therefore lose more than they win, which is exactly what has happened of late and is exactly what I expect to happen today.
Tromso have a good record at the Marienlyst Stadion with three wins in their last four visits so they know how to overcome their hosts today. If Stromsgodset fall behind in this game then I genuinely feel they’re doomed because Tromso are untouchable in defence. Stromsgodset look increasingly likely to fall behind too due to inept defending so you really have to feel that Tromso can grind out a win against their out-of-form hosts today and at 8/5 it’s certainly worth a punt.
Verdict: Tromso to win at 8/5.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Nomme Kalju, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, Trans Narva, Netherlands, Suduva Marijampole, Vetra Vilnius, Ekranas Panevezys, Real Betis Balompie.
Recommended bets:
Dinamo Minsk, Netherlands, and BATE Borisov at 2/1.
Nomme Kalju, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, and Trans Narva at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Belshina (7) 2-0
Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Minsk (6) 1-0
Partizan Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (5) 0-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Brest (6) 2-1, draw no bet
BATE Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino (8) -1.75 handicap
Vitebsk vs Neman Grodno (6) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Avai vs Fluminense (6) over 2.5 goals
Flamengo vs Goias (6) 2-1
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense (7) 2-0
Danish 1st Division:
Fredericia vs Vestjaelland (7) over 2.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Kuressaare (8) 2-0
Flora Tallinn vs Tulevik Viljandi (9) -1.75 handicap
Flora Paide vs Levadia Tallinn (9) over 2.5 goals
Lootus vs Trans Narva (8) 0-2
Sillamae Kalev vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (4) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
AC Oulu vs FC Honka Espoo (7) under 1.5 goals at 11/8.
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs PS Kemi Kings (6)
International Friendlies:
Netherlands vs Hungary (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
South Africa vs Denmark (5) under 2.5 goals
USA vs Australia (6) 1-1 (played in South Africa)
Ghana vs Latvia (7) 2-0 (played in England)
Slovakia vs Costa Rica (6) 1-0
Algeria vs United Arab Emirates (5) 1-1 (played in Germany)
Romania vs Honduras (6) 1-0 (played in Austria)
Serbia vs Cameroon (5) under 2.5 goals
Switzerland vs Italy (5) under 2.5 goals
Latvian Virsliga:
Tranzits Ventspils vs Blazma Rezekne (6) 0-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 1-2
Mazeikiai vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-2
Ekranas Panevezys vs Klaipeda (9) -1.75 handicap
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stromsgodset vs Tromso (6) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Woodlands Wellington (5) 1-0
Geylang United vs Etoile (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Castellon vs Salamanca (4) under 2.5 goals
Albacete vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Villarreal II vs Huesca (5)
Cadiz vs Real Sociedad (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5) under 2.5 goals
Elche vs Real Murcia (6)
Las Palmas vs Girona (6)
Real Betis Balompie vs Numancia (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!