Dinamo Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
FreeToday’s featured game is the Vysshaya Liga game between Dinamo Minsk and Torpedo Zhodino. The illustrious hosts haven’t had the best of campaigns whilst playing at home but have fared well on the road. Visitors Torpedo Zhodino have been getting under everyone’s skin (as usual!) and generally look as a much of a nuisance as ever to overcome.
Dinamo Minsk have been really caught out at home this season because they can’t break sides down. On the counter-attack – sure, they’re lethal – they always have been. This is the side which produced striker Leanid Kovel, one of the fastest but most fairly useless Belarusian strikers ever to exist! However, Dinamo are looking weaker than ever when it comes to grinding out home results as their tally of just one goal scored in four home games indicates this season, particularly as they’ve lost twice and drawn twice along the way. The only side to match this paltry goalscoring record is bottom club Partizan Minsk so Dinamo know that they’ve got problems currently. Defeat at home to BATE Borisov was acceptable if only a tad painful for loyal fans but failing to beat any of the other three sides that they’ve hosted was virtually unforgivable. Naftan Novopolotsk are well-organised but don’t travel well, FC Minsk are half the side that Dinamo Minsk are, and Vitebsk only need to concede to start stuttering so it’s fair to say that Dinamo really aren’t doing the business at home this season. Away from home, however, they’re superb! They’ve won at three strong home sides – Neman Grodno, Shakhtyor Soligorsk, and Dinamo Brest respectively – and are currently the only side to win at newly-promoted Belshina this season so they’ve got their tactics spot-on away from home. Unfortunately for Dinamo Minsk, they’re facing yet another resilient, well-organised side today – Torpedo Zhodino – which I think it’s fair to say is one of their bogey sides.
Dinamo Minsk have beaten Torpedo Zhodino just once in their last six attempts at either ground, drawing four times and losing the other game along the way. They’ve not won any of their last three home games against Torpedo with Torpedo having managed to keep a clean sheet in all three encounters. In fact, Dinamo haven’t scored against Torpedo in four out of their last five meetings at either ground so this should give you an idea of what kind of game we’re in for today. As I touched upon briefly earlier, Torpedo Zhodino are the side that nobody likes to play against. They’re gritty, they love to be the physical team, they’re well-organised, and they love taking points from games that they have no right to. Their away record of one win, one draw, and two defeats on the road this season may not be too flattering but I would urge a bit of a double-check with this side because not only have they scored in every away game that they’ve played in this season but they’re also unbeaten in their last two away games consecutively, claiming an impressive draw in Novopolotsk against Naftan and a win last match at a tricky Vitebsk side. The only two sides to beat Torpedo Zhodino at home this season have been a strong Dinamo Brest side and a then in-form FC Minsk side, both of which had to really battle to win each game, each side winning by just a single goal. Torpedo Zhodino are not afraid to “put it about” whatsoever and I thoroughly expect them to give Dinamo Minsk a very uncomfortable ride indeed today.
Dinamo Minsk’s run can’t last forever and they’re certainly the better of these two sides so do approach with caution. However, I can’t fathom how a side yet to win any of their four home games would be 2/5 to beat a side that they’ve not beaten in their last three attempts at home, let alone managed to score against. Zhodino will make this very difficult for Dinamo and as long as they don’t concede an early goal then I expect them to take something from this game. Incidentally, Torpedo’s star striker Pavel Beganskiy, somewhat nomadic though he is, was a BATE Borisov striker for five years if we go back far enough – I wonder how much he’d love to score against BATE Borisov’s title rivals Dinamo Minsk…
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Minsk at 6/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Diosgyori VTK – home win at 4/9.
I simply feel that these odds are too long. Kaposvar’s recent form has been horrific; there’s no escaping that fact. However, Diosgyori VTK have got internal problems, they’ve sacked their manager – as I briefly touched upon the other day – and are already relegated. They’ve got nothing to play for here and they’ve shown no desire to amend that recently so I don’t know why the bookies are giving the hosts what can only be described as “long” odds. I could perhaps fathom it if Kaposvar didn’t need the points but with two games to go in the Soproni Liga, a win here guarantees them football in this division next year. Kaposvar are a better side than both paper and form shows and their inept defence does concern me a little but they’re a good deal better than Diosgyori, in my humble opinion, and really should make it count today. Kaposvar are conceding heavily but they are scoring in each game that they play in so they deserve some respect at least. Diosgyori lost here last year and look likely to do so again today with no particular motivation to do otherwise. The visitors have failed to score in their last four games, losing each game, and the hosts have scored in all six of their last six games so as long as Kaposvar can defend for a change then odds of 4/9 should be something of a bargain as I’d have put Kaposvar at 1/3 at least for this game.
Incidentally, in Kaposvar’s defence (no pun intended), they have faced five good sides in their last six games so he defeats are partially acceptable although such a run overall certainly isn’t. Kaposvar are finally facing a side that they can beat today and I thoroughly expect them to do so.
Verdict: Kaposvari Rakoczi to win at 4/9.
AEK Athens vs Olympiakos Piraeus – home win at 5/6.
This isn’t the main Athens derby nowadays but Olympiakos are going to have to get used to it being the biggest game of their season if they continue to fall into Panathinaikos’ shadow. Olympiakos, unthinkably, haven’t qualified for the UEFA Champions League next season and it’s due to different managers being installed and thus an overall lack of consistency. Their story in this group stages tells you everything that you need to know as they’ve scored just twice in five games and they’ve already lost their two away games, both of which without scoring. The sought-after striker Kostas Mitroglou (who I like a lot) and versatile defender Vassilis Torosidis look likely to exit Olympiakos this year due to their lack of UEFA Champions League football next season and who can blame them? Champions League football for both Olympiakos and Panathinaikos should be second nature to them by now – performances like the ones that they’ve shown in the group stages of the Super League are simply not good enough at this level. Olympiakos are better than AEK but I’m still backing the home win today despite the odds being a bit short because I’ve got so much faith in Olympiakos not turning up at the present time that it’s unreal. They’re not scoring goals, they’re not playing good football, and they’ve no reason to change that around today – they just want to get to next season and try to regroup, and who can blame them? Key defender Michal Zewlakow misses this game through suspension and you need your best players in games like this so it’s yet another stumbling block for Olympiakos. AEK have won once and drawn once at home in the group stages of this competition but are looking so much better than Olympiakos due to work ethic that I can only respect them. AEK don’t have a good home record against Olympiakos nowadays because they’re not as good as they used to be due to financial difficulties and due to Olympiakos having far bigger resources to tap into. However, for those exact reasons, I expect this game to mean a lot to AEK and I expect them to kick Olympiakos whilst they’re down, get a bit of derby pride back for them.
Basically, I can’t see Olympiakos turning up but I can see this game meaning a lot to AEK so the home win at 5/6 looks a decent bet for me today.
Incidentally, I’ve just heard from one of our loyal posters here Vassilis that Olympiakos are missing approximately twelve first-team players for this game so I’d jump aboard before the bookies catch on – cheers Vassilis!
Verdict: AEK Athens to win at 5/6.
Austria vs Croatia – away win at 5/4.
I always find it hard to write previews for international games because there’s not an awful lot you can write about, particularly for friendlies. I’ll cut to the chase, however – Croatia are simply better than Austria. They’ve got a fantastic manager and they’ve got great attacking options. Croatia are only missing Eduardo, Kranjcar, and Olic for this game – aside from that they have a full squad of talented players. Their defence is looking a little old but their overall performances are very good and Slaven Bilic is reportedly treating all three of Croatia’s upcoming friendlies very importantly indeed. Austria are a compact side but they have a massive fundamental problem in that they don’t score enough goals. They play some good football and they can be hard to beat but they just don’t score enough goals. I personally attribute their flaw to their one-dimensional attack. The likes of Janko and Maierhofer are very good if you have a pacey striker with them but the likes of Wallner just aren’t good enough at international level, as proven as he is in the Austrian Bundesliga. Austria then have the problem of consistently conceding at home, something they’ve done for seventeen consecutive home games in all competitions/friendlies, which just isn’t good enough, particularly as that run included hosting the likes of Faroe Islands and Lithuania along the way. Austria have a horrendous record against Croatia as it is, losing every meeting that they’ve ever had against them, including two at home, and I’ve not seen any reason as to why they’ll have changed that today.
Ultimately, Croatia are going to be scoring goals in this game and Austria are going to be conceding goals. You can take over 2.5 goals if you feel happier doing so but Croatia are just too good for Austria and as long as they defend with an ounce of sense, then they’ll make odds of 5/4 on the away win look very generous indeed. Incidentally, a small stake on in-form striker Mladen Petric to score at anytime is also worthy of consideration!
Verdict: Croatia to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Debreceni VSC, Skonto Riga, Chile U21, Zalgiris Vilnius.
Recommended bets:
BATE Borisov, Debreceni VSC, and Kaposvari Rakoczi at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:
Croatia U21 vs Slovakia U21 (5) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Argentinian Play-Out:
All Boys vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (4) 0-0
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Brest (8) under 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Tolima (5) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Independiente Medellin (7) 2-0
English League Two Play-Off:
Rotherham United vs Aldershot Town (6) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Aris Salonika vs PAOK Salonika (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
AEK Athens vs Olympiakos Piraeus (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Vasas Budapest vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) 2-2
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Diosgyori VTK (7) 2-0
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus vs Szombathelyi Haladas (7) 1-1
MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 1-1
Paksi SE vs Budapest Honved (5) 1-0
Fehervar vs Ujpest (5) 2-2
Debreceni VSC vs Gyori ETO FC (8) under 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Austria vs Croatia (7) over 2.5 goals
Gabon vs Togo (7) 2-1
Belgium vs Bulgaria (6) 1-1
International Friendlies – Toulon Tournament (played in France):
Chile U21 vs Qatar U21 (8) under 2.5 goals
Denmark U21 vs Russia U21 (6) 0-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Tranzits Ventspils vs Skonto Riga (8) 0-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Atletlas (9) -1.75 handicap
Tauras Taurage vs Kruoja Pakruojis (7) 2-1
Klaipeda vs Suduva Marijampole (7) 0-2
Siauliai vs Mazeikiai (7) 1-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Vetra Vilnius (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Beijing Guoan (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!