England vs USA
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup game between England and USA. The game is being played in Rustenburg, which is approximately 1500 metres above sea level. The altitude level is thus hard to deal with as both sides are largely unfamiliar with such excursions. Both sides have played a single game in these conditions over the past week or two and both sides were somewhat fortuitous to win so this game should be a real test for the two nations although I don’t think either nation will benefit from these conditions.
Now initially I had imagined England to have a very good World Cup given their highly impressive displays under Fabio Capello. As an Englishman, I think it’s safe to say that all we desire is a crack at the final and I believed we’d have the capability to make it there this year. I still have that belief although it’s lessened due to evens since the end of the English Premier League because England look extremely nervous. They’ve beaten Mexico and Japan in recent friendlies but have frankly deserved to win neither. You can put that down to impressive displays from their opponents or you can attribute it to England’s nervousness but either way, it’s safe to assess that England have problems. I personally feel that they needed a couple more games before this World Cup to get used to different altitudes, different styles, and to gel more, but who am I? Fabio Capello is the man who knows what he’s doing and he’ll give England the best possible chance of doing anything in this tournament. What I have to credit England with is scoring five goals in their last two games despite barely deserving to score two of them. It’s the likes of Crouch and Rooney that just have a natural ability to bring goals to them and that’s why I think England will be scoring at least once in this game. However, England’s football is fairly unproductive at the moment and their defence looks shaky as the fact that they’ve conceded in their last two games indicates all too clearly. The loss of Ferdinand from this side will hurt them because of his tremendous experience and ability and the baffling lack of quality right-back will no doubt only encourage sides to attack down our right-hand side. I don’t think I’m being biased here by saying that Wes Brown has done enough this season to earn a place in this squad but apparently not in the eyes of those whose opinions matter more than mine! Either way, England are heavily reliant upon their more talented players i.e. Gerrard and Rooney to provide creativity for the team because they’re not creating as a unit so there’s additional pressure on those two, which is never good! England have a reputation of choking when it counts – let’s hope an early goal will settle the England side down in this game or we could see nerves much earlier than expected.
My opinions on USA are almost identical to those I have of England currently as in that USA were set to have a great tournament and yet have looked bafflingly weak in friendlies. Admittedly, they are just friendlies but even so – they’re the platform for momentum and USA haven’t done themselves any favours, in my opinion, conceding six goals over their last three games. They somehow lost at home to an impotent Czech Republic before claiming edgy victories over Turkey and Australia respectively so I’m not convinced by the American side yet. They’re certainly a capable side and they’re very well-orgnaised when they want to be so this should be a very interesting game today. Take into considetation that ten of this side (eleven if you include Donovan for his stint at Everton) play in the United Kingdom so they know what is awaiting them today and they’ve done a hell of a lot of research as coach Bob Bradley has already admitted. USA are the underdogs here but they’re keen to beat their mother nation and in my experience, a motivated USA is a dangerous USA and one thing they’ve done well of late is score goals. They’ve got various different options with the likes of Buddle, Altidore, Dempsey, and Donovan all capable of scoring goals so I expect them to score at least once against a shaky England defence.
Although this game could melt into a tactical nightmare and remain goalless, I personally feel we’ll see an open game due to a lack of choice as both sides have looked unusually poor defensively of late. Both sides have gone over 2.5 goals in their last two games consecutively and both sides have the rivalry factor so the determination and motivation should be strong here. England are unquestionably the better of the two sides but I don’t expect it to show today against a resilient USA side so I won’t be touching an England win at 1/2. However, with the above information in mind, you have to feel that over 2.5 goals and both sides to score at evens are really rather good value bets so they’re certainly worthy of your consideration today. Beware though – I really don’t think this game will be as easy as the majority of England fans seem to think it will be although I’d love to be wrong!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens, both sides to score at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
South Korea vs Greece – South Korea to win at 9/5.
There’s not an awful lot I can preview about this World Cup game statistics-wise; I simply feel that the South Koreans are a better side overall. They’ve got some really talented players and should be able to dominate midfield with the likes of Ji-Sung Park, Chung Yong Lee, and Kim Nam-Il in here. The two wingers, Park and Lee, are very much capable of beating men and using pace to cause problems down the flanks and the experience of both Park and Nam-Il will be vital in South Korea’s attempted dominance of midfield, Nam-Il particularly so in keeping Greek playmaker Karagounis quiet. If they keep Karagounis quiet, this game should be a lot easier for the South Koreans as the Greek are ageing and show it with some slow and predictable attacks more often than not. Greece laboured to a draw against South Korea’s bitter rivals North Korea in a recent friendly, despite having led twice in the game. I hate to draw conclusions from such an encounter but South Korea are better than North Korea so they should be able to score a few against Greece today, given chance. The game against North Korea was the only one that Greece have scored in during their three friendlies, losing 2-0 against Ukraine and Paraguay respectively. Not only is their lack of goals scored a massive problem but their usually assured defence has leaked two goals per game in their last three games, which is a big, big problem. South Korea are feisty and energetic so I don’t expect to see much of the slow Greeks unless the Koreans allow them to be in the game. South Korea impressed me with a win at Japan, they contained the Spanish very well indeed, and only really let me down against Belarus so they’re capable of doing well today. Greece have been a big disappointment for me so far and I think they can be flattered to be tagged as favourites for this game because I certainly don’t have them down as favourites.
Although this is unquestionably a risky call, I don’t understand why Greece are favourites for this game. South Korea have far more in their lockers, particularly in terms of variety in attack, so they’ve got to be given respect here. Greece made a mistake by not bringing Olympiakos frontman Mitroglou because he’s a good player and has a knack of scoring important goals. Greece’s frontline looks very predictable and their only real advantage over South Korea here is height so set pieces should be their main threat. Either way, at 9/5, South Korea have got to be worth a punt today – they’re simply a better side, in my eyes, and have the potential to cause massive problems in the Greek defence today.
Verdict: South Korea to win at 9/5.
Argentina vs Nigeria – Argentina to beat the -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
I hate myself for calling this but there really should be value on the handicap today. I hate Maradona for the shit job he’s doing for a very good team but the ineptitude of Nigeria really should give them a comfortable victory today. By rights, Argentina shouldn’t be at this World Cup after their shambolic displays during the qualifiers but they’ve managed to get here and I’d be lying if I said I’d rather they weren’t here – World Cups wouldn’t be the same without Argentina. I have no faith in Maradona’s tactics, however, and I think they’ll struggle against good sides, unless little Messi carries them. However, Nigeria look impotent, weak in defence, and short of creativity so this is the perfect game to start off Argentina’s campaign – you know, facing a side that just isn’t good enough to face them! Nigeria have drawn with Colombia, and Saudi Arabia in friendlies before the World Cup before eventually winning a game against North Korea in rather nervy fashion, needing a late penalty to secure the win. Nigeria offer little in front of goal against good sides because Yakubu is unfit and Martins is sporadic at best. Who else is there to fear in this side? Kanu is too old to be effective in a game like this (who FIFA interestingly class as a midfielder!), Obinna is too young and not good enough as a finisher, and Utaka has great pace but hasn’t seen enough football this season. As ever, there is energy and stamina here but little else for the Nigerians.
The key here has to be midfield because unlike their African counterparts Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Ghana, for example, Nigeria do not have a dominant central midfielder. Yussuf is a good player who I like but they’re simply not good enough as a unit through the middle and frankly I think Argentina will tear them apart. I have little faith in Argentina but they should have enough chances on a plate today to win this game comfortably as a result due to the ineptitude of their opponents so backing Argentina on the handicap (as much as my instincts warn me otherwise!) seems a gift today.
Verdict: Argentina to beat the -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
EB/Streymur vs IF Fuglafjordur – home win at 6/5.
The giants of Faroese football, EB/Streymur, today host over-achieving IF Fuglafjordur and they’ve picked a good time to play them too! Their opponents threw away a 3-1 lead to lose 3-5 against a strong NSI Runavik side last match so morale has taken a blow. Consider that this game was a few weeks ago, which means that IF have been sitting on this result for a while, and now they have to face a stronger side than themselves that are gradually entering their stride. With that in mind, IF have got a big hill ahead of them to climb to get anything today. EB have struggled to get into this season but remain the better of these two sides despite the dramatic improvement of today’s visitors. EB have won this fixture for five out of the last seven times it’s been played at home and they’re certainly capable of doing so today. They’ve won three out of their five home games this season, drawing twice, and are unbeaten in their past four games, winning three times along the way. Momentum favours the hosts and although it should be a tight game, I think IF should get their second wake-up call of the Meistaradeildin season as they take on yet another giant of the Faroese league with their good results of the season so far nothing but a distant memory currently.
I expect a tight game and possibly even a rare under 2.5 goals game in the Meistaradeildin as neither side scores many goals. However, I think the bookies have given IF too much respect following a good start to the season – EB/Streymur are the better side and shouldn’t be above evens for this game so I think there’s value in the home win.
Verdict: EB/Streymur to win at 6/5.
FC Lahti vs AC Oulu – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Very risky call but potentially worthwhile. FC Lahti have stopped losing, which is no doubt a bonus for them. However, three consecutive 0-0 draws says that goalscoring problems are still rife in their side. Lahti remain the lowest goalscoring side in the Veikkausliiga currently and although their defence can be solid (and has been very much so of late) they still look vulnerable because they offer nothing in front of goal. Although Lahti’s record of one draw and three defeats in their four Veikkausliiga home games this season is a tad harsh for such a big side, they’ve earned it by scoring just once goal during that run and conceding six times! I mean, consider that they’ve scored more and conceded less away from home than they have at home and you’ll see what I mean. Nonetheless, a side that isn’t scoring goals isn’t a side I can accept have a chance of winning a game of football although that record will have to end sometime – I just don’t envision it happening today.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking AC Oulu are the better side here – they’re not. They’re one of the weaker sides in the division quality-wise. However, the compensate for that fact by being the most tenacious side and are particularly dangerous with momentum behind them as they approach games with the nothing-to-lose and fight-for-everything mentality that makes them a terrible side to face when you’re out of form. Unfortunately for Lahti, they’re hosting an AC Oulu side that has claimed back-to-back victories over two of the best sides in the Veikkausliiga, beating Inter Turku 2-0 away from home and beating FC Honka Espoo 2-0 at home, two utterly phenomenal results for the northern minnows and their confidence is sky-high as a result. I don’t rate their attack as better than average but they’re such a completely different side when they’ve got good results under their belt so I’m confident that they’ll give Lahti a really tough game today.
Ideally, I’d have preferred to lay Lahti today and although odds of 4/6 were tempting, I still felt that they were a tad short so I’ve opted for draw no bet. I genuinely believe that an inspired AC Oulu can score once or twice here today despite Lahti’s strong defence of late but with the hosts not scoring goals at the moment, taking the visitors to win with draw no bet at evens could be a good value bet today.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win with draw no bet at evens.
HJK II vs PK 35 Helsinki – away win at 7/4.
I think the bookies have priced this incorrectly. Away wins in the Ykkonen have crippled me of late so it’s taken a lot for me to consider this one but I have to give it a shot purely because PK 35 are the better of these two sides. There’s not masses in it so I can understand odds being quite generous but 7/4 is too generous; dangerously so. PK 35 haven’t had a great campaign in the Ykkonen so far but what they have done is scored goals. Their away form of one win and two defeats so far is actually far better than it looks with their defeats coming at giants RoPS Rovaniemi (as expected for any side heading north this season!) and at inspired PoPa Pori, eventually succumbing to a 4-3 defeat. They’ve won their other game so I don’t think the statistics have been kind to PK 35 Helsinki so far this season. A win last match at home to promotion hopefuls KPV Kokkola will hopefully have given PK 35 the mental boost that they need to get their able side going and I think it’s worth a shot on calling them to do so against an abject and defensively-weak HJK II side. HJK II have leaked six goals during their last two home games and are without a win in four games, losing three along the way so momentum isn’t on their side currently. I rate the hosts as a presentable side but I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I thought PK 35 were the better side. Both sides are from Helsinki but there’s no fierce rivalry between the two sides so I don’t expect that to affect the outcome of this encounter much, if indeed at all.
As I’ve mentioned previously – I just think that the bookies have priced this wrongly. The visitors are the better side and they’re certainly a capable side on the road, as they’ve demonstrated fairly well of late despite results not going their way. The hosts have started their usual slump and are conceding heavily so I think it’s worth a small punt on the away win today.
Verdict: PK 35 Helsinki to win at 7/4.
FK Khimki vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi – home win at 7/5.
I can’t fathom these odds at all! Don’t expect a great game here as both sides value defence far more than attack but there’s no way Khimki should be above evens when hosting a newly-promoted side! Khimki are good enough to finish in the top four of the Division 1 this season and I thoroughly expect them to do so. They’ve already won five out of seven home games this season because sides find it hard to score against them. Their opponents don’t score many on the road either and owe their decent away form due to not conceding goals. Suffice to say that this won’t be a classic game of football today but there’s still a quality gap that favours the hosts here. The visitors have lost their last two away games consecutively 1-0 against a good Salyut Belgorod and an average Avangard Kursk so they’re certainly capable of losing against a superior Khimki side today. My fear is that the low-scoring hosts may be kept out but I expect defeats to have hampered Zhemchuzhina’s momentum a considerable amount of late and the the hosts should be able to score what would ultimately no doubt become the winning goal. Either way, the home win is definitely worth a punt at 7/5 as it shouldn’t be above evens, in my opinion – this is Premier Division quality hosting an average Division 1 side here today! I can’t see these odds lasting long as a result!
Verdict: FK Khimki to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Argentina, Levadia Tallinn, Maag Tammeka Tartu, Sillamae Kalev, Trans Narva, NSI Runavik, Vetra Vilnius, Ekranas Panevezys, Liepajas Metalurgs, Salyut Belgorod, Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod.
Recommended bets:
Levadia Tallinn, Maag Tammeka Tartu, Sillamae Kalev, and Trans Narva at 2/1.
EB/Streymur & NSI Runavik at 2/1.
FK Khimki, Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod, Ekranas Panevezys, and Liepajas Metaulurgs at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup:
South Korea vs Greece (6) under 2.5 goals
Argentina vs Nigeria (8) -1.75 handicap
England vs USA (6) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs El Nacional Quito (5) 1-0
Liga de Quito vs Deportivo Quito (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (8) over 2.5 goals
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Paide (8) 2-0
Viljandi Tulevik vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 1-2
Lootus vs Flora Tallinn (7) under 2.5 goals
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare (9) -1.75 handicap
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
EB/Streymur vs IF Fuglafjordur (7) under 2.5 goals
NSI Runavik vs Suduroy (9) -1.75 handicap
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs AC Oulu (5) draw no bet, under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu vs Hameenlinna (6) under 2.5 goals
HJK II vs PK 35 Helsinki (6)
Italian Play-Offs:
Triestina vs Padova (5)
Latvian Virsliga:
Blazma Rezekne vs FK Jurmala (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Jauniba vs RFS/Olimps Riga (6) 1-0
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Tranzits Ventspils (9) 2-0
FK Ventspils vs Skonto Riga (6) under 2.5 goals
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 1-2
Ekranas Panevezys vs Mazeikiai (9) -1.75 handicap
Russian Division 1:
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Energia Khabarovsk vs Mordovia Saransk (6)
Irtysh Omsk vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (6)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Baltika Kaliningrad (4) under 2.5 goals
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Dinamo Bryansk (8)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (5)
Avangard Kursk vs Rotor Volgograd (6)
FK Khimki vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (7) under 2.5 goals
Salyut Belgorod vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (8)
Kuban Krasnodor vs FK Krasnodor (6) at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Numancia vs Villarreal II (6) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Osters vs Angelholm (6)
Ljungskile vs Brage (6) under 2.5 goals
Vasby United vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping (6)
Orgryte vs Trollhattan (4) under 2.5 goals
Falkenberg vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!