Espanyol vs Real Mallorca
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Espanyol and Real Mallorca in Barcelona. Hosts Espanyol have been immense at home this season, much like Mallorca last season, ironically. Visitors Mallorca, however, haven’t recovered from their sumemr changes and should struggle here.
Espanyol miss star striker Osvaldo for this game and will do for some time, unfortunately, as he suffered a bad injury a few weeks ago. Surprisingly, Espanyol have played quite well without him, which is no doubt due to the team spirit created by Argentinian boss Pochettino. They shouldn’t have to need Osvaldo though, to be fair, as long as Luis and Sergio Garcia both pull their weight, which they haven’t been for the majority of the season but both have stepped up reasonably well lately in Osvaldo’s absence. Argentinian defender Forlin is regrettably still absent for the hosts and he’s joined by midfielder Javi Marquez, which gives Espanyol a couple of issues here. Nonetheless, their confident win at home to Real Sociedad last match convinces me that momentum will support them here and let’s face it – they’ve got the firepower to score goals if youngster Alvro and Verdu step up to the plate so I’ll give the hosts a chance here.
I really wouldn’t read much into the recent form of Espanyol – they’ve never been an away side to begin with but they’ve had a run of unfortunate fixtures with their two home games in their last four games being against Villarreal CF and Real Madrid and their two away games being against in-form Almeria and an Osasuna team under a new boss – all difficult games. Espanyol should be back in business tonight though!
Visitors Real Mallorca have continually failed to impress me lately and I don’t expect to see anything different tonight. I like Laudrup; I think he’s a good manager and his teams tend to play well. However, Mallorca are simply not functioning under him, conceding too easily and not scoring anywhere near enough goals. You look at their team and you have to wonder where their goals will come from. Webo is a beast of a striker to handle on his day but he’s not a particularly gifted finisher and Nsue has somewhat disappointed since his promising burst onto the Primera Liga scene. There’s an over-reliance on Mallorca’s midfield, especially the superb Castro, although Pereira and De Guzman contribute too, it has to be said. De Guzman misses this game, however, which leaves the burden largely with Castro and partially with Pereira, which just isn’t enough, in my view. They’ll be happy to welcome Ramis back in defence for this game but there’s a reason that Mallorca have only scored twice in their last six away games and it’s because they’re simply not very good at it. In fact, had it not been for an uncharacteristically lacklustre Athletic Club de Bilbao display against Mallorca lately, Mallorca wouldn’t have won a game since the start of January and it’s that statistic that is most relevant here, I feel.
Espanyol already won 0-1 at Real Mallorca earlier this season and haven’t lost at home to Mallorca for four consecutive visits, beating them twice along the way. Espanyol have won nine out of twelve home games this season with only bitter rivals Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Villarreal taking three points from the Catalans. Visitors Mallorca have lost eight out of twelve on the road whilst averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game and scoring less than a goal per away game. Although Espanyol are missing a few important players, I simply feel that they should have too much for Mallorca here. Although I’ll concede that a 0-0 draw isn’t out of the question, I still think there’s value on an Espanyol win if their midfield show up.
Team news – Espanyol miss Osvaldo, Forlin, and Javi Marquez whereas Real Mallorca miss Victor and De Guzman.
Verdict: Espanyol to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sevilla CF vs Sporting Gijon – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Well, Manzano’s certainly got his feet under the table at Sanchez Pizjuan now, hasn’t he? Scrap the game at Atletico Madrid last match; you have to attack and score goals to get points off Atletico Madrid. What interests me is that Manzano has made Sevilla very defensive and that’s something that I had previously thought was quite impossible. Their game at Porto lately went under 2.5 goals. Their win at home to Hercules Alicante lately went under 2.5 goals. In fact, three out of Sevilla’s last four home games in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals and only a superb Porto goal took the one game over 2.5 goals. Sevilla still miss defensive rock Dragutinovic, unfortunately, and they also miss Sergio Sanchez tonight too. However, they’ve looked assured at the back lately and somewhat calmer in attack, losing their samba rhythm a lot and generally looking a lot more like the old Deportivo La Coruna side, in my view – winning games narrowly whilst focusing on defence. Kanoute returns for the hosts, as does goalkeeper Palop, so Sevilla are getting back to full-strength again, especially with star winger Navas back in business. However, I simply cannot overlook that Sevilla are now a defensive side and it should show again tonight.
Visitors Sporting Gijon are battlers, to be blunt, just like almost all northern Spain sides. It’s the southern sides like Sevilla that tend to take a more relaxed and “samba” approach to their games but Sevilla have adopted a much more northern style to their game lately, which is a tad bemusing. Gijon will come here to take a point and they’ll do well to do so as they don’t score goals away from home. They’re rarely embarrassed on the road, conceding approximately 1.5 goals per away game, but their average of scoring less than a goal per away game has previously and continues to hurt them. Nonetheless, they’ve only lost half of their away games in the Primera Liga this season, which only Getafe and Real Zaragoza outside of the top four Primera Liga clubs can better, so don’t necessarily go leaping all over the Sevilla win here. I’ve made the mistake of underestimating the tenacious Gijon before and I won’t be doing so again in the near future.
Gijon are actually unbeaten in three consecutive games now, drawing at home with Barcelona, away with Valencia CF, and at home to Zaragoza last match. I see no reason for Gijon to change tactics tonight as it simply wouldn’t make sense for them to do so. All three of those games went under 2.5 goals, incidentally, because Gijon lock up tight away from home and keep men behind the ball. Seven out of Gijon’s twelve away games in the Primera Liga this season have gone under 2.5 goals and with Manzano unlikely to unleash the beast that is Sevilla, I think under 2.5 goals looks favourable here at decent odds.
Team news – Sevilla CF miss Sergio Sanchez and Dragutinovic whereas Sporting Gijon miss Javi Poves.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Accumulator fodder:
Novara.
Recommended bets:
Espanyol and Novara at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Penarol (5) 1-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Colo Colo (5) 1-1
Asian Champions League:
Jeju United vs Tianjin Teda (6) 2-1
Gamba Osaka vs Melbourne Victory (6) over 2.5 goals
Hangzhou Lucheng vs Nagoya Grampus (4) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Nasr (5) under 2.5 goals
Esteghlal vs Al Sadd (6) 1-0
Al Jazira vs Al Gharafa (6) 1-1
Al Hilal vs Sepahan (7) 2-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs Rapid Vienna (6) under 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Zadar (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Manchester United (5) 0-0
English Championship:
Portsmouth vs Scunthorpe United (7)
Middlesbrough vs Nottingham Forest (4)
Derby County vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
English League One:
Brentford vs Notts County (6)
Exeter City vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Colchester United (4)
Walsall vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Yeovil Town vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Charlton Athletic vs Carlisle United (5)
Hartlepool United vs Huddersfield Town (6)
English League Two:
Lincoln City vs Oxford United (3) over 2.5 goals
Cheltenham Town vs Stockport County (6)
Torquay United vs Rotherham United (5)
Aldershot Town vs Gillingham (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bury (6)
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Chesterfield vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
English FA Cup:
Everton vs Reading (4) 1-1
Estonian Super Cup:
Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie B:
Varese vs Crotone (6) under 2.5 goals
Piacenza vs Empoli (4) under 2.5 goals
Reggina vs Frosinone (6)
Cittadella vs Livorno (5)
Albinoleffe vs Modena (6)
Grosseto vs Padova (5)
Sassuolo vs Pescara (6)
Novara vs Portosummaga (8) under 2.5 goals
Siena vs Triestina (7)
Ascoli vs Vicenza (6)
Russian Cup:
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Dundee United (5) 1-1
Hamilton Academicals vs Hibernian (5) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Etoile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Real Mallorca (7) 2-0
Sevilla CF vs Sporting Gijon (7) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Numancia (4)
Barcelona II vs Cordoba (6) over 2.5 goals
Cartagena vs Tenerife (5)
Salamanca vs Villarreal II (6)
Girona vs Granada (6) both sides to score
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Atletico Venezuela vs Carabobo (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!