FC Copenhagen vs OB Odense
FreeToday’s featured game is the Danish Superligaen game between giants FC Copenhagen and title challengers OB Odense. FC Copenhagen are undisputedly the best side in Denmark and have been for some years now due to the surrender of Brondby. OB Odense have emerged as legitimate title contenders in recent years but still lack the class to really push FC Copenhagen, in my opinion.
FC Copenhagen have already won eight out of twelve home games this season and have only been beaten twice during that period so it’s fair to say that they’re a constant threat at home. They average scoring over two goals per home game and only just over a goal per every two home games conceded so they’re usually well-placed to win home games. They’ve scored seven goals in their last three home games and conceded just twice so they’ve been fairly assured since returning from the winter break. FC Copenhagen are basically a very capable and experienced side, easily the best in Denmark, and a win today sees them extend their gap at the top of the Superligaen to four points over second-placed OB Odense so they’ll be keen to see it done.
Visitors OB Odense have been great on the road this season with just one defeat in eleven away games, winning six times. They’re the most potent away side in the Superligaen with nearly two goals scored per away game but concede over a goal per away game on average too. I don’t normally go against OB Odense due to their potency but they’re looked dejected since returning from the winter break, winning just twice in five games. They’ve only won once in their three home games since their return, even losing at home to Midtylland last match so they’re looking a little unsteady at the moment. They’ve drawn at Midtylland and have overcome a lacklustre Esbjerg on the road since returning from the break and neither result convince me that they’ll do the business today, to be honest.
OB Odense have lost three out of their last four Superligaen visits here, drawing the other game, so they tend to suffer at the hands of the giants. OB Odense also suffered the indignity of being comprehensively beaten at home earlier this season by FC Copenhagen so they do look the weaker side here, as you’d expect. Whereas FC Copenhagen aren’t firing on all cylinders currently, they’ve got more than enough experience and ability to take three points from an OB Odense side that is conceding too many goals.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
GKS Belchatow vs Odra Wodzislaw – home win at 5/6.
Mysterious odds!
First of all, GKS Belchatow are twice the side that Odra Wodzislaw are. That’s not only factual but also reflected in the Ekstraklasa table. They’ve won six out of twelve home games this season and have only lost three times during that run so they’re a solid home side. They’ve not looked the same since striker Costly left for obvious reasons but still bear a presentable threat at home as their victory over Wisla here a few weeks ago proved. They played well against Lech Poznan here too, drawing 1-1. Defeat last match at home to Zaglebie Lubin was unthinkable and simply continued Belchatow’s poor run of form but to underrate them with such insulting odds baffles me. They’ve got a good number of players out of contract in the summer, players that will be fighting for a move to a bigger club so they’re going to have to perform well in games like this. Belchatow have beaten Odra for three out of Odra’s last four visits here and won at Odra earlier this season so with the above in mind, I can’t really fathom why Belchatow are longer than 1/2!
Odra Wodzislaw have been playing well since their return from the winter break and are actually unbeaten during that time. Their admirable performances have stemmed from strong defensive displays and Odra are feeling the benefits massively. They’ve been strong at home with no goals conceded in three consecutive home games (despite even hosting potent Lech Poznan) but have conceded in their last away game against lowly Korona Kielce so they’re looking a little more human ahead of this game. They’re missing a few important players ahead of this game, most notably experienced holding midfielder Cantoro, so they should be somewhat off the boil today. Odra have played well of late but there’s no escaping the fact that they’ve lost six out of ten away games this season and average conceding 1.5 goals per away game so why they’re rated so highly by the bookies is beyond me.
Honestly, if all Belchatow’s players died then I’d still expect odds of at least 1/2 on the home win here so I’m somewhat baffled to say the least. Belchatow’s dip in form of late does concern me but they’re traditionally strong at home and Odra are traditionally poor away and are missing some key players. I wouldn’t put my house on this outcome given Belchatow’s dip in form but the odds on the home win are too good to pass up on.
Verdict: GKS Belchatow to win at 5/6.
Bellinzona vs Grasshoppers Zurich – lay Grasshoppers Zurich at 10/11.
At what point can bookies justify giving 4/6 on an away side that has only won three away games in twelve games?! Unthinkable. Grasshoppers are a big side but haven’t shown it in recent years. This is arguably their best season for at least two years so I’ll respect their form, particularly since their return from the winter break. However, eight defeats in twelve away games, an average of just over a goal scored per away game whilst conceding two goals per away game doesn’t fill me with confidence. Grasshoppers are a capable side but rarely show it on the road so these odds are way too short for them, in my opinion. Bellinzona aren’t a great side; they’re average at best. However, one thing they’ve always done in the Super League is been hard to beat at home. Don’t get me wrong, their home record this season is the poorest it’s been for some time but they still make life hard for sides so I don’t think this will be as clear cut as the bookies seem to think it will be. Grasshoppers have never won at Bellinzona and although they won at home to Bellinzona last match, this is a very different game indeed. It’ll take a special performance from Grasshoppers to take three points from this game and I feel the value is in laying them tonight as a result of the likelihood of that occurring.
Verdict: Lay Grasshoppers Zurich at 10/11.
Le Mont vs Yverdon Sport – away win at evens.
I feel a bit harsh on Le Mont sometimes because I just don’t rate them at all. However, their record speaks for itself, particularly at home – six defeats in ten games. Le Mont have struggled to adapt to the Challenge League following promotion and their form following their return from the winter break suggests that their stay in this division may be cut short. Le Mont average conceding over two goals per game at home and have lost their last four games consecutively, conceding twelve goals during that run – an average of three goals per game, which shows their defending is getting even worse. They’ve scored three goals during that run but they’re just conceding too many goals to stand a chance against potent sides.
Cue the entrance of Yverdon Sport. They’re not amongst the best in this division and they’re not amongst the best on the road but they do enjoy scoring a lot of goals. In fact, only high-flying Lugano have scored more away goals than Yverdon Sport have despite Yverdon Sport only occupying fifth place. Yverdon score nearly three goals per away game and it’s generally their defensive record that hurts them on the road with an average of nearly two goals conceded per away game, which explains why their away form is so haphazard. However, conceding goals shouldn’t be a great concern of Yverdon’s tonight as they’re facing a side that barely averages scoring over a goal per home game. Yverdon have won three out of their last five games, winning their last two away games consecutively during that time whilst scoring six times and conceding three times. Yverdon have been consistent on the road and bring good momentum into this game so the away win should really occur tonight.
There’s a bit of a class gap between these two sides and a massive potency gap with both of those gaps favouring the away side. Yverdon have been reliable on the road and their away games tend to be rather predictable of late with Yverdon conceding but ultimately outscoring their opponents. I can see a scoreline of 1-2 or maybe even 1-3 tonight as I expect a potent and in-form Yverdon Sport to do the damage tonight at very generous odds of evens.
Verdict: Yverdon Sport to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Hamburger SV, Once Caldas Manizales, Corinthians, AB Copenhagen, AC Horsens, Vestjaelland, Vikingur Gotu, HB Torshavn, EB/Streymur, Basel.
Recommended bets:
FC Copenhagen, Hamburger SV, and Vestjaelland at 4/1.
GKS Belchatow, AC Horsens, and Basel at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Fulham vs VFL Wolfsburg (6) 2-1
Hamburger SV vs Standard de Liege (8) 2-0
Valencia CF vs Atletico Madrid (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
SL Benfica vs Liverpool (5) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito (6) 1-0
Corinthians vs Cerro Porteno (9) 2-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Nacional Asuncion (8) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Nordsjaelland (6) 2-1
Brondby vs Silkeborg (5) 1-0
HB Koge vs Randers (6) 1-2
FC Copenhagen vs OB Odense (7) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Fredericia (6) under 2.5 goals
Fyn vs Lyngby (5) over 2.5 goals
Frem vs AB Copenhagen (8)
AC Horsens vs Naestved (8)
Vestjaelland vs Skive (8)
Vejle vs Thisted (4)
Braband vs Roskilde (5) over 3.5 goals
Kolding vs Hvidovre (5) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton (5) over 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs AB (8) 2-0
HB Torshavn vs Suduroy (9) -1.75 handicap
EB/Streymur vs B36 (8) 2-1
B68 vs B71 (4) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (7) 1-1
GKS Belchatow vs Odra Wodzislaw (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-0
Home United vs Geylang United (7) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Sion (8) 2-0
FC Zurich vs St.Gallen (6) 2-1
Bellinzona vs Grasshoppers Zurich (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Le Mont vs Yverdon Sport (6) over 3.5 goals
Schaffhausen vs Thun (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!