Fiorentina vs Siena
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Today’s secondary featured game is between struggling Fiorentina and newly-promoted Siena. Neither side has impressed much this season but this is a big game for both sides and the three points are very much required so I think we’ll see 100% focus at long last.
Fiorentina may have parted with misfit Gilardino in the current transfer window but they’ve snapped up big Amauri from Juventus at a bargain price. I really rate Amauri – he’s big, strong, good in the air, and surprisingly skilful, especially when it comes to finishing. He may be a touch on the rusty side but I think he’ll fit right into Fiorentina’s squad rather well. The pressure should be lessened on Montenegrin star Jovetic as a result, which should see a better balance of play in the Fiorentina camp as a result. Rossi has the luxury of sitting Cerci and Jovetic either side of Amauri and thus Fiorentina finally have a legitimate attack, in my view – all that they need now is a creative midfield! There’s plenty of pace and energy in Fiorentina’s midfield but only Montolivo makes something happen so that is a problem that Fiorentina will have to overcome. Still, I feel that they can do that here and thus I’m keen on the home win today.
Helpfully, Siena are not the best away side in Serie A. In fact, they’re pretty far from being the best away side in the division. To their credit, they’re not an easy side to score against but that can be countered by the fact that they don’t score goals on the road. Only Palermo have scored less away goals than Siena have this season with today’s visitors averaging scoring less than a goal per every two away games. Have they done anything in the transfer window to resolve their attacking issues? No, they’ve not. Their attack as it currently stands is not good enough to keep them in the division, in my view. They’ve got some experienced heads out there and that absolutely counts in their favour but their lack of threat in front of goal must be a big concern for them, especially in a huge game like this. Siena have only evaded defeat once on the road this season after falling behind and that doesn’t bode well today with Fiorentina likely to improve in front of goal.
Despite a morale-boosting win at Chievo Verona last match, I think Siena will lose this one. Fiorentina need to do a lot more to become the force that they once were but I think that they’ve got more than enough at their disposal today to win this game which is why my call is the home win at 5/6, especially with Siena’s number one goalkeeper Brkic absent for this game.
Verdict: Fiorentina to win at 5/6.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
AC Milan vs Cagliari – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I have to fancy over 2.5 goals at the San Siro today. We all know how good AC Milan are at attacking, at scoring goals, and the experience that they possess makes them a very dangerous side to face. They’ve just clinched the signing of Argentinian target man Maxi Lopez from Catania to bolster an already impressive attack so they’ve got plenty of options to choose from here. They need them, too, with Milan’s list of absentees as huge as ever with long-term casualties Gattuso, Cassano, and Flamini being joined on the sidelines by Pato, Boateng, and Aquilani for this game. Nonetheless, you still have to fancy Milan at home, though – Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and now Lopez are all capable of destroying sides and they’ve got plenty of support from midfield to help them too. Defensively, Milan haven’t been at their best this season with continual interruptions preventing their back four from playing together and solidifying. Mexes has been out for a long time, Nesta has injury problems (as ever), and Yepes is absent today so only reliable Thiago Silva is a certainty at the heart of the defence. Milan are still very composed at the San Siro and they’re hard to handle but I think they’ve got a tough game today.
Cagliari are just one of those sides that will lie down for nobody. I watched them at the Juventus Arena lately and they more than deserved their point. True enough, goalscoring is a big issue for Cagliari but they’ve got so much tenacity that a slow-passing side like Milan may find this a much harder game than most anticipate. Colombian striker Ibarbo has a lot to learn about finishing but he’s very strong and hard to play against as a result. They’ve signed Pinilla from Palermo to bolster their striker options, which should help, and they’ve also signed Dessena to improve their creativity. I like both of those signings as they’re players with Serie A experience and will help the Cagliari battle. Cagliari have to deal with their absentees too, though – defender Ariaudo sits this one out and he’s a bit of a blow for them. I like the prospect of them making Milan work hard here, though – Cagliari can score goals with the alternatives that they now possess and Milan are far from at full-strength today.
Therefore, I’m going for over 2.5 goals here. We could see a Milan masterclass sweep Cagliari away or we could see a battling open game with plenty of goals but either way I do think that over 2.5 goals is worth taking at 4/5, especially as three out of the last five games between these two sides have easily gone over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Real Sociedad vs Sporting Gijon – home win at evens.
I was surprised when Real Sociedad were thumped by Atletico Madrid last match but Atletico Madrid look to be entering a new era under Simeone so I will discard that result as it certainly doesn’t fit the ways of Real Sociedad if we observe their home record. Aside from Atletico Madrid, only Barcelona, Real Madrid, and bitter rivals Athletic Club de Bilbao have scored at Anoeta, which is testament to the passion and organisation that Sociedad demonstrate at home. They’re a shade short on firepower but what they lack in finesse they make up for in creativity and determination with Xabi Prieto, Mariga, and Griezmann all capable of producing something special whilst Aranburu and Gonzalez provide the die-hard spirit for Real Sociedad. As much as it pains me to say it as an Athletic Bilbao enthusiast, I do like this Real Sociedad side when playing at home – they’re a very well-organised unit.
Sporting Gijon are living on borrowed time at the moment. I have faith in Preciado’s ability to save the club from relegation – nobody else could do it, after all – but they are short on ability. The look utterly incapable of getting a result away from home due to a lack of firepower and leadership at the back. I like them when they’re at home as they surrender to nobody and they do play better football than they’re given credit for. However, their heads do drop when they fall behind and they tend to fall behind in their away games so this trip to the Basque country will not be an easy one for them, especially as their one strength over the average Primera Liga side (tenacity) will not be an advantage against Sociedad as they bring the same to the table.
I’d argue that Sociedad have a marginally better squad than Sporting and they’re in the perfect position to demonstrate it. For me, there’s value on the home win at evens today.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Porto, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Trabzonspor, Fenerbahce.
Recommended bets:
Fiorentina, Trabzonspor, and Porto at around 8/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Libya vs Senegal (7) 0-1
Equatorial Guinea vs Zambia (5) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Heart (5) over 2.5 goals
Adelaide United vs Perth Glory (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-1
Mons vs Club Brugge (5) 0-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Colo Colo vs Deportes Iquique (7) over 2.5 goals
Cobresal vs Union San Felipe (7) 2-1
Union La Calera vs Universdad de Concepcion (6) 1-0
Audax Italiano vs Union Espanola (5) 2-2
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportes Quindio (7) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Boyaca Chico (5) 0-0
La Equidad Bogota vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 2-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Millonarios Bogota (4) 1-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia vs Apollon Limassol (6) 1-0
AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis (6) 1-0
English FA Cup:
Sunderland vs Middlesbrough (7) 1-0
Arsenal vs Aston Villa (7) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 2-1
Valenciennes vs AC Ajaccio (6) 1-0
Stade Rennais vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 0-0
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg (6) 1-0
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 0-1
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis (7) 2-0
PAS Giannina vs Panaitolikos (4) 1-1
Aris Salonika vs Levadiakos (8) 2-0
Doxa Dramas vs Panathinaikos (5) over 2.5 goals
AEK Athens vs PAOK Salonika (6) 0-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Fiorentina vs Siena (7) 1-0
Cesena vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 1-1
AS Roma vs Bologna (7) 2-1
Lecce vs Internazionale (6) 0-1
Chievo Verona vs Lazio (4) 1-1
Genoa vs SSC Napoli (6) 2-2
Palermo vs Novara (7) 2-0
AC Milan vs Cagliari (7) over 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara (5) 2-1
Tijuana vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
RKC Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo (5) 1-0
Twente Enschede vs Groningen (7) 2-0
NEC Nijmegen vs ADO Den Haag (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Pacos de Ferreira (4) 1-1
Vitoria Setubal vs Olhanense (4) 0-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Beira-Mar (8) 1-0
Gil Vicente vs Porto (8) 0-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Granada (6) 2-1
Real Sociedad vs Sporting Gijon (6) 1-0
Levante vs Getafe (4) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Valencia CF (6) 0-1
Malaga vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cordoba vs Elche (6)
Deportivo La Coruna vs Cartagena (7)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Almeria (5) both sides to score
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Manisaspor (6) 1-0
Eskisehirspor vs Orduspor (6) 2-1
Samsunspor vs Istanbul BB (5) 1-0
Gaziantepspor vs Sivasspor (6) 1-1
Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor (8) 0-2
Fenerbahce vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!