Flamengo vs Bahia
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between Flamengo and Bahia in Brazil.
Flamengo have done well this season but have struggled to make ends meet lately and my personal view is that they’re simply not good enough to maintain their excellent start. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that they started brightly after signing world-class midfielder Ronaldinho as he’s still way too good for Serie A. However, at the core, Flamengo are still a big club with an average team and that’s why when Ronaldinho doesn’t produce the goods/isn’t available, they struggle. Flamengo have actually scored just two goals over their past three home games and with just fifteen goals scored in ten home games in Serie A this season, it’s not a secret just how much they rely on Ronaldinho. Indeed, only newly-promoted Figueirense out of the top eight have scored less goals at home than Flamengo and with Flamengo winless for five consecutive games now, including a 0-0 draw with Vasco da Gama at home, I can’t see them doing well here tonight. We must be fair to Flamengo, though – they are an average team but they’re missing a number of important players even from their average team with attacker Luiz Antonio, midfielder Airton, holding midfielder Maldonado, and defender Alex Silva all absent for this game. Flamengo may win this one but with just a 50% win ratio at home so far this season and a lot of important absentees, I find it hard to believe the odds on the home win here.
I’ve got a real soft spot for Bahia, admittedly – I really admire their tenacity and desire to play good football. However, they’ve got a big obstacle to overcome tonight with boss Rene Simoes having recently left the club. Clubs from Vitoria all play with great heart, however, so I’m hoping it won’t hurt their game too much. I mean, Bahia are obviously short on quality in their squad as they’re still new to the division. Reinaldo, Ricardinho, and Lulinha are good players but they lack depth and their lack of attention to defending can hurt them. However, there have been only a handful of games this season where Bahia haven’t played good football and I think they’d love to do that against one of the biggest clubs in Brazil tonight. They’ve already frustrated the hell out of Palmeiras, Fluminense, and Vasco da Gama away from home this season – why not under-strength Flamengo too?
This is not a banker bet, quite obviously. However, it’s one I like the look of because Flamengo are not themselves and Ronaldinho’s absence harms them in a big, big way here. Bahia are a spirited bunch and if they play to their best then I think they can spring a surprise draw. If they do lose the game then I don’t think think there’ll be much in it due to Flamengo’s absentees. Therefore, the Bahia win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10 appeals to me a lot tonight.
Team news – Flamengo miss Ronaldinho, Airton, Maldonado, Alex Silva, and Luiz Antonio.
Verdict: Bahia to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Belshina Bobriusk vs Gomel – draw at 21/10.
I very rarely tip draws, as you all know, but this game has draw all over it. They’re two well-matched sides with Gomel playing the exact same style of football that Belshina Bobriusk themselves played last season, which was their first season back in the Vysshaya Liga, just as it is for Gomel. Neither side are adventurous; both are shrewd and calculating. A draw suits both sides at this stage of the season and both are amongst the most consistent drawing sides in the Vysshaya Liga. The only sides to beat Belshina in Bobriusk this season are the two sides that you’d expect to win there – reigning champions BATE Borisov and giants Dinamo Minsk. Aside from those two games, Belshina have won twice and drawn seven times at home in the current campaign. Gomel’s story away from home is similar with just two losses in ten away games, drawing seven of the remaining eight. They’re the worst goalscoring side in Belarus away from home but counter that with only BATE Borisov boasting a better defensive record on the road. This is a tight, tight game between two defensive sides and for me, 21/10 is well worth a flutter on the draw here.
Verdict: Draw at 21/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Zimbabwe, Randers.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations Qualifiers:
Madagascar vs Nigeria (4) 0-1
Comoros vs Zambia (5) 0-1
Zimbabwe vs Liberia (8) 2-0
Burundi vs Benin (6) 1-1
Central African Republic vs Morocco (6) 0-0
Niger vs South Africa (5) 1-1
Congo vs Sudan (6) 2-1
Angola vs Uganda (6) 2-1
Togo vs Botswana (5) 0-0
International Friendly:
Mexico vs Chile (5) 2-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Martin de San Juan vs Argentinos Juniors (6) 1-1
Union de Santa Fe vs Atletico Rafaela (6) 2-1
Independiente vs Boca Juniors (4) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Olimpo vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 0-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Belshina Bobriusk vs Gomel (7) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (6) 2-1
Flamengo vs Bahia (4) 1-1
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense (4) 0-0
Coritiba vs Corinthians (5) 2-1
America Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama (6) 1-1
Ceara vs Internacional (5) 0-0
Colombian Primera A:
Once Caldas Manizales vs Millonarios Bogota (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cucuta Deportivo vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huila vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Skive vs Viborg (7) at least one red card in this game
Roskilde vs Fredericia (6)
Randers vs Hobro (8)
Hjorring vs Vestjaelland (5)
Naestved vs Bronshoj (5)
AB Copenhagen vs Esbjerg (7)
Mexican Primera Division:
San Luis vs Morelia (6) 1-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Guarani Asuncion vs Sol de America (7) 2-1
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan vs Nieciecza (5)
Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Dolcan Zabki (4)
Wisla Plock vs Flota Swinoujscie (5)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Hougang United vs Etoile (7) 0-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Numancia vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5)
Cartagena vs Barcelona II (6)
Deportivo La Coruna vs Hercules Alicante (7)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Swedish Superettan:
Degerfors vs Hammarby (5)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Angelholm (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Rentistas vs Cerro (6) 1-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (6) 1-0
Rampla Juniors vs Danubio (7) 0-1
Liverpool Montevideo vs Bella Vista (7) 2-0
Montevideo Wanderers vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Airbus UK (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!