Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Greuther Furth
FreeToday’s featured game is the Bundesliga 2 game between Fortuna Dusseldorf and Greuther Furth. Fortuna Dusseldorf have had a good season so far and currently occupy fourth place in the table as a result. Visitors Greuther Furth have had a disappointing campaign by last season’s standards and find themselves in eighth place due to sporadic form.
Dusseldorf are currently the best home side in the Bundesliga 2 with ten wins from twelve games, scoring over two goals per home game on average whilst conceding an average of nearly one goal per every three home games. No other Bundesliga 2 side can get near this record; that’s how convincing Dusseldorf are at home. Their away form tends to underpin their overall performance but happily that’s not an obstacle for us tonight. Only Augsburg have scored more goals at home than Dusseldorf have this season but no side has conceded less than Dusseldorf have at home. Dusseldorf have won their last nine home games consecutively and haven’t conceded for five home games so to say Dusseldorf are well-placed to win this game would be understatement of the century!
Visitors Greuther Furth are a side that I rate highly but have disappointed me a lot this season as a result. Their home form hasn’t been as dominant this time around with tonight’s visitors having lost far too many home games this season. Their away form has been quite good but again they’ve lost too many games, games that they could and should have at least drawn. Greuther Furth are scoring goals but their problem is that they’re conceding too many goals so their goals scored tend to be more redundant in the overall outcome. Greuther Furth have already lost five out of eleven away games this season so they are vulnerable on the road against the right opponent. Greuther Furth have won their last two games so carry some momentum into this game. However, they’re facing a side that is of Bundesliga standard and I don’t think that they’re ready to take on that kind of force and could be taken apart by a rampant Dusseldorf tonight.
The efficiency and potency levels of Dusseldorf are frighteningly German in essence with the hosts being strong at home on such a consistent basis. It’s hard to envision a sporadic Greuther Furth side taking anything from this ground tonight on the basis that the hosts are unbelievable in front of goal and in regards to keeping other sides out. Quite frankly, these odds baffle me – this has to be one of the biggest bargains I’ve seen in recent times!
Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Slavia Sofia – away win at 9/10.
Lokomotiv Mezdra are one of those sides that frequently disappoint – the kind that you have to love to bet against! They’ve already lost eleven games out of their sixteen played in the A PFG and look destined for another long, hard battle against relegation. They’ve lost five out of eight home games, winning twice twice along the way. Lokomotiv Mezdra average conceding over two goals per home game and scoring just over a goal per game so it’s easy to see why they struggle. Lokomotiv Mezdra’s welcome back from the winter break was a 3-0 crushing at mighty Litex Lovech so they’re not in the best frame of mind as they enter this game.
Visitors Slavia Sofia haven’t proven themselves consistently on the road this season, however. There’s no doubt in my mind that Slavia are amongst the top six sides in Bulgaria currently but the fact that they’ve won just twice in eight away games illustrates why I am a little concerned ahead of this game. However, the fact that only Minior Pernik, Litex Lovech, and CSKA Sofia have conceded less goals than Slavia have on the road indicates how strong today’s visitors can be. Their problem has been goalscoring away from home, something that only newly-promoted Sportist Svoge have done less than Slavia this season. However, a win last match against Sportist Svoge will give Slavia Sofia some momentum as they enter this game as they’ve picked up right where they left off prior to the winter break and their ability isn’t in question so they’ve got a good chance of doing damage today.
I’m expecting a low-scoring game between these two sides for obvious reasons but I think Slavia Sofia have enough in their favour to make the away win good value today. They’re the better side and their momentum will surely improve their away form in due course and what better place to start than Mezdra today?
Verdict: Slavia Sofia to win at 9/10.
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki – away win at 7/5.
This is probably my riskiest call of the day but I do like the look of it.
TPS Turku aren’t the same as last season as I’ve explained in great detail over the past few weeks. Their form indicates it with TPS proving to be incapable of playing against the big sides i.e. Honka Espoo, IFK Mariehamn. TPS’ only “claim to fame” so far this season is beating bitter rivals Inter Turku, who are a big side but one I discount from the above ruling due to the fact that it is a derby. It took TPS Turku seventy minutes in their last Liiga Cup game to overcome a resilient but defensively unreliable FC Lahti with TPS winning the game 1-0. The performance and result weren’t impressive and I’m failing to see any real reasoning behind TPS Turku turning up tonight against the infamous HJK Helsinki, particularly with the hosts having avoided defeat here since 2003, winning four times and drawing once.
HJK Helsinki are still the best side in the country. It pains me to say that a little as I do favour Honka Espoo but HJK’s potency and efficiency is second to none and I thoroughly feel that they’ll win the Veikkausliiga again this season. The Liiga Cup, however, who knows? This competition is largely a testing ground for new players but it’s one that HJK appear to have taken very seriously this season and thus stand a good chance of winning. HJK have played at least three tough Liiga Cup games so far but managed to draw 3-3 at Honka Espoo (despite trailing 2-0 at one point), beat IFK Mariehamn somewhat convincingly, and conceded a late goal at home to Inter Turku to draw the game. HJK’s ability to score goals isn’t in question but the sides that tend to pose a problem for the giants of Finnish football are those that can either match their potency or keep them out. I don’t currently classify TPS Turku as being either of those two sides so the game today should be very interesting indeed.
TPS Turku won’t make this game easy for HJK Helsinki but with lessened ability and a new manager being their biggest handicaps currently, it’s hard to see TPS Turku taking anything from the game. HJK Helsinki’s current manager was in charge of TPS Turku last season so he’ll know his ex-players inside out. He’s doing well with HJK already this season and with the Veikkausliiga reigning champions having such a dominant record at TPS Turku, you have to feel that there’s value in the away win.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win at 7/5.
Cesena vs Sassuolo – home win at 6/5.
I’m a tad dubious about this call because I believe Sassuolo are better than Cesena but there’s enough to support the home side to considering back them tonight.
Cesena owe their entire season to being hard to beat. Following promotion from Serie C, Cesena have only been beaten five times in twenty-seven games, which is frankly an amazing record for them. Most newly-promoted sides burn out by now but the stern tactical displays of Cesena continue to roll onwards. Cesena have been strong at home this season with eight wins in fourteen games, drawing four times, and losing just once. Along with Empoli, they’re the lowest-conceding side at home in the whole of Serie B and also average scoring nearly two goals per home game. Cesena’s recent form hasn’t been as impressive as it could be but a win last match at home to Ascoli could give them the momentum that they’ve been lacking of late.
Visitors Sassuolo’s excellent run of form has well and truly been scythed from beneath their feet with three consecutive defeats. Worryingly for Sassuolo, two of those games have been at home. I can just about accept their defeat at home by Brescia but the defeat at home by Gallipoli and away to Mantova are simply not good enough. Sassuolo’s defending of late has been appalling with tonight’s visitors conceding six goals in three games, scoring just twice along the way. Their potency has nose-dived along with their defensive ability so Sassuolo are in a bad way currently. Sassuolo may have only lost two away games in Serie B this season but I doubt they’ll be much more likely to lose an away game than they are tonight in their current form (or lack of!) so there should be value in the home win.
Although Cesena have stuttered a little of late, they remain composed and strong at home for the vast majority of the time. This is not the kind of venue that a disorganised and demoralised Sassuolo side can travel too and hope to take points away from. To win here you must be in-form and spot on tactically, two things Sassuolo simply aren’t currently. I don’t rule out the possibility of a draw in this encounter but I think Cesena have enough in attack to exploit Sassuolo’s defensive ineptitude of late whilst keeping the visitors out with their usually strong defence.
Verdict: Cesena to win at 6/5.
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs MVV Maastricht – home win at 10/11.
AGOVV Appeldoorn have been fairly strong at home in the Eerste Divisie this season with seven wins in fourteen games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and whereas they can’t really compete with the “big boys” of the division, they’re certainly a competent side on their day. Fortunately for us, AGOVV are very much “on their day” currently with three consecutive wins leading into this game. They’ve not just beaten some menial relegation battlers for the duration of those three games either – they’ve battered Excelsior 4-2 and won at a strong home side – Volendam – without even conceding so AGOVV will have some strong momentum currently. They concede more than they should but their potency and momentum are unquestionable so they’re worthy of consideration tonight.
The other side to this is that MVV Maastricht are utterly horrendous away from home. They’ve not lost in their last two away games, admittedly, but to whom – Omniworld and Volendam? I respect their draw at Volendam but defeat at Omniworld is one of the lowest things that a side in this divsion can do, in my opinion! MVV have already lost nine out of fourteen away games in the Eerste Divisie this season, a record only beaten by that of Fortuna Sittard and Omniworld, so MVV certainly do have issues. It’s a shame because they’re a good side in essence but consistently fail to produce on the road. MVV average conceding well over two goals per away game and although they’re not goal-shy themselves, they do tend to be outscored.
Although MVV are unbeaten in four games, I’m yet to be convinced that they’re back to their best. They’re still an atrocious away side so an in-form AGOVV home win has to be taken seriously tonight.
Verdict: AGOVV Appeldoorn to win at 10/11.
Eindhoven vs Emmen – home win at 4/5.
Eindhoven have impressed me a lot in the past few weeks with a ruthless attacking style of football. They’ve won seven out of their last nine Eerste Divisie games whilst scoring twenty-one goals – an average of over two goals scored per game. They’ve won some tough games too, winning at Go Ahead Eagles and at home to Cambuur Leeuwarden, so this appears to be more than a temporary burst of form. Eindhoven are virtually brainless in defence but their attacking potency has long been a strongpoint of theirs irrespective of their league placing. Only a handful of sides have scored more than Eindhoven have this season so Emmen will have to be either very potent or very strong defensively tonight, two things that I personally think that they’re incapable of!
That said, in Emmen’s defence, they’ve scored ten goals in their last four games so they’ve certainly been able to find the net in recent times. However, Emmen have already lost eight out of thirteen away games this season and their average of conceding nearly three goals per away game is doing them a lot of damage. They only just average scoring a goal per away game so the contradicting records indicate just why Emmen fare so badly on the road. A disappointing draw at home to Oss last match should really have ended their momentum run and I expect them to struggle against an in-form and potent Eindhoven tonight as a result.
Although there’s not much between these two sides quality-wise, the incredible potency of Eindhoven cannot be denied and I fancy them to do the job tonight against Emmen with plenty of goals being scored!
Verdict: Eindhoven to win at 4/5.
Bala Town vs The New Saints – away win at 5/6.
Now these odds I like! Bala Town may have been on a good run of late but the newly-promoted side are now facing another of Wales’ “big three” and will have to produce a superb display to do anything but lose this game.
Bala Town have already won five out of ten home games in the Premier League, losing just twice. They’ve done well following promotion but this has largely hinged upon their reliable defence as their displays have been somewhat goal-shy, a factor which will most likely come back to haunt them in the latter stages of this season. Bala Town remind me a little of Prestatyn Town when they were first promoted so there’s hope for Bala Town looking at how difficult Prestatyn are to beat now. However, the fact is that there’s a massive gulf in class between Bala Town and the “big three” in Wales, something which was illustrated perfectly in their 5-2 drubbing at Rhyl last match.
The New Saints haven’t been good enough on the road this season in my opinion with just four wins in nine games. They’ve been superb defensively with just four goals conceded in nine games – the best defensive record on the road in the Premier League – but their abysmal tally of just seven goals scored in nine games appears to be hindering their progress substantially. Indeed, only lowly Porthmadog have scored less away goals than The New Saints this season so goalscoring is most certainly a concern of theirs. However, their level of ability is unquestionable so you’ve got to fancy them to take down Bala Town tonight.
I’ve been waiting for a little while now to see Bala Town host one of the bigger sides as I hoped the bookies might overrate the hosts, which appears to the case ahead of tonight’s game. I’m a bit disappointed that they’re hosting The New Saints before Rhyl or Llanelli as those two sides are far more potent and thus dangerous but we’ll have to make do with what we have. Don’t expect many goals here tonight but the gulf in class should leave us with a good value away win.
Verdict: The New Saints to win at 5/6.
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Prestatyn Town – away win at 11/10.
Connah’s Quay Nomads are just one of the five “bottom clubs” in the Premier League which just lose to the majority of their fellow Premier League sides and tend to only take points off each other. Connah’s Quay Nomads may have only lost four out of nine home games this season but the fact that they don’t even manage to score a goal per home game on average spells trouble for the hosts tonight. They’ve lost their last three games consecutively so momentum is dry and they’ve not scored in any of those games so goals are somewhat dry too. They were crushed 3-0 by Aberystwyth Town in their last home game and that result will have hurt them the most considering their supposed home strength. I suspect Connah’s Quay Nomads may be somewhat demoralised from their barren run and look likely to struggle tonight with goal-shy displays dominating their results.
Prestatyn Town are generally a home side but I expect them to do well against lesser opponents tonight. Prestatyn used to make a living out of stopping other sides scoring but havechose to become rather potent this season, which is a useful asset to boast. You could possibly have viewed Prestatyn Town as a Stoke City of the Welsh Premier League last season but this season they’re more like Wigan Athletic in the sense that they attack recklessly and score a lot of goals but tend to forget about defending! Prestatyn are in a good vein of form however as they’ve gone four games without defeat in the Premier League. They’ve had two very impressive away games lately with a credible draw at Neath Athletic and the 5-0 demolition of Welshpool Town so Prestatyn are gradually becoming better on the road. They’ve won four out of eleven away games this season, losing four times too, but scoring an average of nearly two goals per game so it’s only a matter of time and application before they become reliable on the road. Prestatyn do concede a lot of goals but I can’t envision that being an issue against a goal-shy Connah’s Quay Nomads tonight, particularly with the visitors in such fine form!
I’m not usually a fan of taking Prestatyn Town to win on the road but there’s enough in their favour to day to make this bet a good value bet in my book! They’re scoring goals for fun and they’re on a good run of form so outscoring goal-shy Connah’s Quay Nomads tonight should be a somewhat simple affair.
Verdict: Prestatyn Town to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Fortuna Dusseldorf, Bohemians, Excelsior, Go Ahead Eagles, Wisla Krakow.
Recommended bets:
Fortuna Dusseldorf, Wisla Krakow, and AGOVV Appeldoorn at 5/1.
Bohemians, Go Ahead Eagles, and Prestatyn Town at 5/1.
Excelsior, The New Saints, and Eindhoven at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Austrian Liga 1:
Salzburg II vs Austria Vienna II (7)
First Vienna vs Hartberg (5)
Dornbirn vs Austria Lustenau (6)
Lustenau vs SCR Altach (6)
St.Polten vs Gratkorn (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Slavia Sofia (7) 0-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki (6) 1-2
French Ligue 2:
Strasbourg vs Angers SCO (5)
Chateauroux vs Bastia (6)
Clermont Foot vs Brest (5)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7)
Arles vs Istres (6) under 2.5 goals
Laval vs Metz (8)
AC Ajaccio vs Vannes OC (6)
Le Havre vs Dijon FCO (6)
Guingamp vs Nimes (6)
Nantes vs Tours (4)
German Bundesliga 2:
Hansa Rostock vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (5)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Koblenz (6)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Greuther Furth (9)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Sporting Fingal (8) 2-0
Bray Wanderers vs Dundalk (6) 0-0
Drogheda United vs UCD (7) 2-1
St Patrick’s Athletic vs Galway United (6) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Cesena vs Sassuolo (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs MVV Maastricht (7) over 2.5 goals
Veendam vs Omniworld (6)
Excelsior vs Oss (9) -1.75 handicap
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport (6) over 2.5 goals
Eindhoven vs Emmen (7) over 3.5 goals
Volendam vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar (5)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Dordrecht ’90 (8) over 2.5 goals
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Zwolle (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Polonia Bytom (5) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Arka Gdynia (8) under 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Leixoes (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Rapid Bucharest vs FC Poli Timisoara (6) 0-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Salamanca (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs The New Saints (7) 1-2
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Prestatyn Town (7) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!