Fram Reykjavik vs UMF Grindavik
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Anyway, first impressions says that the money today has to be in Iceland. There’s some criminially good odds out there tonight and I feel that the bookies could be really fucked over tonight if things happen as they should.
Today’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild game between Fram Reykjavik and UMF Grindavik. I’ve already earmarked UMF Grindavik as a side that I expect to be relegated this season and two defeats from two games certainly supports my theory. Fram are one of the better sides in the Urvalsdeild and they’ve shown it so far and thus I expect them to do so again tonight.
Fram Reykjavik have played two games this season, comfortably easing past IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-0 in their opening home game and coming from two down at Breidablik Kopavogur to draw 2-2 in their most recent game. In both games Fram have shown patience, determination, composure, and most importantly – potency. They bring good momentum into this game as a result and thus feed their usually strong home form well ahead of tonight’s game. Fram have beaten Grindavik in four out of their last six home games against them and have won their last four games against Grindavik at either ground consecutively so the gap between the two clubs is growing. Fram are already averaging scoring two goals per game, which just about lines up with their potency from last season so I expect a comfortable and efficient display from them tonight, particularly as they’re still the superior of the two sides.
UMF Grindavik have got problems. Big problems. They’ve leaked five goals in their first two games in this campaign, losing both games, and are the only Urvalsdeild side yet to score a goal. Worryingly for Grindavik, the two newly-promoted sides (Haukar and Selfoss) are both playing better than they are so they’re really going to have to pull it out of the bag to avoid the drop this season, in my opinion. Grindavik lost a hefty seven away games out of eleven games last season and look likely to further that record against an impressive Fram Reykjavik tonight. Grindavik’s opening day defeat was at Stjarnan Gardabaer, a good side but not a side that is capable of beating them 4-0 and yet that was the outcome. Grindavik committed footballing suicide by having a man dismissed after just a few minutes but even so – Grindavik really should know better. As a result, tonight’s visitors now enter this game demoralised and have it all to do against a superior Fram Reykjavik, a side which they don’t have a good record against as it is.
I really don’t understand why the bookies think that 4/6 for this game is a good idea (from their perspective). Fram Reykjavik have played well this season and are strong at home whereas Grindavik are arguably the weakest side in the division currently and all of the statistics support that fact. By my reckoning, Fram should be at least 1/2 for this game if not shorter so I can only recommend taking Fram to win this one today despite the odds not being as value-worthy as normal – the value level should still be there though!
Verdict: Fram Reykjavik to win at 4/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Diosgyori VTK – home win at 4/9.
I’ll copy and paste this one as it’s been moved to today from yesterday!
I simply feel that these odds are too long. Kaposvar’s recent form has been horrific; there’s no escaping that fact. However, Diosgyori VTK have got internal problems, they’ve sacked their manager – as I briefly touched upon the other day – and are already relegated. They’ve got nothing to play for here and they’ve shown no desire to amend that recently so I don’t know why the bookies are giving the hosts what can only be described as “long” odds. I could perhaps fathom it if Kaposvar didn’t need the points but with two games to go in the Soproni Liga, a win here guarantees them football in this division next year. Kaposvar are a better side than both paper and form shows and their inept defence does concern me a little but they’re a good deal better than Diosgyori, in my humble opinion, and really should make it count today. Kaposvar are conceding heavily but they are scoring in each game that they play in so they deserve some respect at least. Diosgyori lost here last year and look likely to do so again today with no particular motivation to do otherwise. The visitors have failed to score in their last four games, losing each game, and the hosts have scored in all six of their last six games so as long as Kaposvar can defend for a change then odds of 4/9 should be something of a bargain as I’d have put Kaposvar at 1/3 at least for this game.
Incidentally, in Kaposvar’s defence (no pun intended), they have faced five good sides in their last six games so he defeats are partially acceptable although such a run overall certainly isn’t. Kaposvar are finally facing a side that they can beat today and I thoroughly expect them to do so.
Verdict: Kaposvari Rakoczi to win at 4/9.
Keflavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik – home win at evens.
Keflavik are at evens for this game. Oh dear. In the list of monumental cock-ups by bookies, this ranks somewhere near the top.
Keflavik didn’t have a great Urvalsdeild campaign last season due to their atrocious away form. However, one thing you can always rely on Keflavik for is solid home displays. For the last two seasons consecutively, Keflavik have won at least eight out of their eleven home games, and one of those seasons was quite poor by their own standards! They’re such a well-oiled machine that they rarely concede goals at home and tend to win in a boring but efficient style. Both of Keflavik’s performances so far this season have done nothing but echo my comments above with Keflavik winning both games away from home 1-0, one against a fairly wealthy Breidablik Kopavogur, and once against a relegation-threatened UMF Grindavik. Keflavik don’t do scoring a lot of goals – they just win games in a machine-like fashion, which is why they’re one of the few sides in the Urvalsdeild with a good record against giants FH Hafnarfjordur. Ultimately, Keflavik are a damn good side in this division without scoring a lot of goals so underestimate them at your peril.
Fylkir Reykjavik are another good Urvalsdeild side but they’re not at the level of Keflavik, in my humble opinion. They’re started the season with two consecutive wins, which naturally gives them good momentum to bring into this game. However, despite their flambuoyancy in attack, they’re lacking defensively and that should be exposed today by Keflavik. I like Fylkir but have they really won any difficult games this season? No. They’ve beaten a Stjarnan Gardabaer side that is abysmal on the road and they’ve won at newly-promoted Selfoss. Fylkir are always a threat in front of goal and were good on the road last season too but they constantly stutter at Keflavik, losing here for three consecutive visits – ever since Keflavik became a permanent fixture in the Urvalsdeild title race, in fact!
Basically, Keflavik are still the better of these two sides and frequently show it at home with workmanlike, low-scoring home wins. Fylkir won’t make it easy for them on a general level but their defending probably will, which is fortunate or I’d be concerned for Keflavik being able to break through. Either way, the value is on the home win tonight for a superior Keflavik to grind out another win with another clean sheet!
Verdict: Keflavik to win at evens.
Valur Reykjavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur – home win at 11/10.
Well, it’s “instinct” time again guys! It paid off last time with Kalmar winning against Orebro – will it happen again? Who knows?
I’ve tried my best to ignore this game but I simply can’t because Valur Reykjavik are the better of these two sides. Money hasn’t aided Breidablik in the way that they’d have liked and Valur have been wasteful this season, particularly in front of goal, which is why both sides are yet to win a game. Valur heroically drew at home to FH Hafnarfjordur on the opening day of the season but then stuttered by somehow drawing at home to newly-promoted Haukar. That’s the sporadic type of display that Valur show which is why I don’t back them consistently. However, they’re facing a disjointed and unconvincing Breidablik side tonight and I fancy them to win it as a result. Breidablik have not only failed to win their two games so far but have also thrown away a two-goal lead during that time, which does affect morale, if only a little.
I just don’t see an able Valur side doing anything but beating Breidablik tonight and 11/10 on the home win is odds I simply couldn’t overlook despite not being able to coherently explain why I’m backing Valur!
Verdict: Valur Reykjavik to win at 11/10.
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs KR Reykjavik – home win at 19/10.
This is the riskiest call of the day if exclude my instinct bet because KR Reykjavik are the better of these two sides. However, there is method in the madness, as ever!
Stjarnan Gardabaer earned themselves a reputation last season of being a phenomenal home side. Well, I should hasten to point out that their success was largely confined to the earlier parts of the Urvalsdeild season due to burn-out towards the end of their campaign. However, six wins out of eleven home games in your first Urvalsdeild season does command respect and Stjarnan are no mugs. They won their first home game this season against relegation favourites UMF Grindavik. It wasn’t so much the outcome that impressed me but the relentless desire to continue pummelling their opponents, scoring four goals when two was really adequate against their ten-men opponents. Stjarnan have since suffered a typical away defeat against in-form Fylkir Reykjavik but now have home comforts to look forward to again. Stjarnan won six out of their first seven home games last season and that excellent start kept them in the division, something they’re clearly looking to emulate this season. Interestingly enough, KR Reykjavik were the first side to take points off Stjarnan away from home, drawing 1-1 here. However, Stjarnan are just as strong as last year whereas KR haven’t really got going yet, hence my call today.
KR Reykjavik, much like rivals Valur Reykjavik, enjoy being unpredictable. They’ve faced two home games so far in the Urvalsdeild against newly-promoted opposition and have mystically failed to win either. Somehow, both sides have avoided defeat here with Haukar obtaining a 2-2 draw here and Selfoss somehow winning here 2-1. What does this tell us about KR Reykjavik? Well, they’re still a very good side but their defence definitely hasn’t improved. They had a nasty habit last season of conceding unnecessary goals due to woeful defending and they’ve not resolved that issue over the break. However, KR have also become a lot more wasteful in front of goal, which is naturally causing them problems because they’re not scoring enough to beat their opponents, or even draw with them in some instances. The likes of Baldvinsson in attack is a good and experienced option but youngster Finnbogason is a similar type player so KR aren’t bringing anything new into the game with either striker and the Urvalsdeild is naturally a typically physical league so KR really need to explore other options in attack or continue failing to find the net. New signing Lars Iver Moldskred of Norway was dismissed last match so he’ll miss this game leaving new signing Thordur Ingason making only his second appearance for the club. As if their defensive issues weren’t big enough already but a new goalkeeper trying to boss around a poor defence equals disaster.
Although KR realistically should walk this game if they’re in-form, they should really struggle tonight. They’re defending terribly, they’ve got a new goalkeeper with no cohesion with his mediocre defence, and they’re travelling to face a strong and well-organised home side. The visitors aren’t scoring goals but the hosts are and should do so various times tonight against a weak KR defence and so long as KR’s attack fail to turn up again, you have to favour Stjarnan to “do a job” on them tonight, particularly at very generous odds of 19/10.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 19/10.
France U21 vs Japan U21 – home win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
France U21 were superb in their opening game of the Toulon Tournament as they overcame Colombia U21 2-0, a result which could have been a lot worse for the South Americans. Colombia started the game well and took advantage of France’s nerves but after the first twenty minutes, France began to dominate. They scored two fabulous goals in this game as they exposed Colombia’s inability to defend in the air but created numerous chances and would probably have scored again had they not had to “shut up shop” due to a petulant N’Diaye lashing out and getting himself sent off. France U21 played well overall though and the crowd got behind them in that game as you’d expect so I expect another strong performance from them today.
Japan U21 were annihlated in their opening game by a fairly unproven Ivory Coast U21 side. The Ivorians are rising rapidly in world opinion on every level so it’s only natural progression that their U21 side does too but to overcome Japan U21 3-0 was a fairly unbelievable scoreline, a scoreline that was assisted by Japan’s inability to defend. The traditional Japanese issue is that their players, on average, are too small and cannot defend aerially, something that France have already exposed against Colombia although Colombia’s issues largely came from them not knowing when to head it and when to not as opposed to Japan’s issues of being physically too short. Japan offered little in the way of innovation and a solid French backline really shouldn’t be troubled by them tonight.
Ultimately, France should walk this game. I expect at least a 2-0 scoreline if France show up as they did in their opening game and thus make the handicap tonight a good value bet.
Verdict: France U21 to beat the -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
FH Hafnarfjordur, Fram Reykjavik, Kaposvari Rakoczi.
Recommended bets:
Keflavik, FH Hafnarfjordur, and Fram Reykjavik at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Estonia U21 vs Armenia U21 (6) 0-0
Copa Libertadroes:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Internacional (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Universidad de Chile vs Flamengo (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Tweede Klasse Play-Offs:
KVSK United vs Eupen (6)
Roeselare vs Mons (5)
Danish 1st Division:
Braband vs Naestved (7) under 2.5 goals
English League Two Play-Off:
Morecambe vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soponi Liga:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Diosgyori VTK (7) 2-0
MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 1-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Keflavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) under 2.5 goals
FH Hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (9) -1.75 handicap
Selfoss vs Haukar (6) 1-1
Fram Reykjavik vs UMF Grindavik (8) 2-0
Valur Reykjavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 1-0
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs KR Reykjavik (6) 2-1
International Friendly:
Congo DR vs Saudi Arabia (5) 2-1
International Friendlies – Toulon Tournament (played in France):
Colombia U21 vs Ivory Coast U21 (6) 2-1
France U21 vs Japan U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Mexican Primera Division:
Santos Laguna vs Toluca (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!