Rubin Kazan’ vs Tom’ Tomsk
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Russian Premier League game between giants Rubin Kazan’ and minnows Tom’ Tomsk. Despite a vast amount of Russia being between these two sides, I think it’s as close a derby as these two sides can get in the current division but that’s the only explanation I can offer as to why the odds are as generous as they are.
True enough, head-to-heads show this game going over 2.5 goals more than under 2.5 goals but things have changed this season that weren’t as relevant last season. First of all, Rubin Kazan’ are in desperate need of a proper poacher in attack. Bukharov did a good enough job for them but his sale to Zenit St.Petersburg has rendered them utterly useless in front of goal with nothing more than average strikers to choose from. Their midfield is strong with experienced Turkish playmaker Karadeniz a real match-winner. Indeed, Noboa and Ryazantsev have done so well that Rubin haven’t missed Carlos Eduardo as much as I’d have expected them too so they’ve no problems there. Defensively, they’re still cast-iron with Navas being the general and plenty of experience alongside him. However, goalscoring is a real problem for them, which is why the only games in which they’ve scored two goals or more have been at home against two of the most likely sides to be relegated this season – Terek Grozny and FK Krasnodar, the latter of which are only in this division because they bought the rights to be there! They’ve failed to score in two of their five home games and have failed to overcome Amkar Perm’ and Spartak Nal’chik at home, which is beyond embarrassing, in my view. Rubin struggle to break sides down and struggle to score goals as a result and I expect more of the same today.
After a dire start, Tom’ Tomsk have started to play really well, surprisingly. They enter this game on the back of a home win against giants Zenit St.Petersburg so confidence is very high at the moment, especially after a seven-game unbeaten run. Three out of Tom’s five away games have gone over 2.5 goals this season but I’d argue that they’ve faced poor sides in doing so. Bizarrely, it’s midfielder Golyshev who has been carrying the team with a lot of goals rather than the likes of Bazhenov and that does seem to have boosted Tom’ Tomsk overall. They do have some talented players – they just weren’t threatening opposing goals at the start of the season, something that appears to have radically changed now.
I actually wouldn’t rule out Tom’ Tomsk sneaking a cheeky win here because they are bringing goals into this game and Rubin aren’t. However, Rubin’s defence is really strong and the visitors will have their work cut out to score here. Tom’ Tomsk’s defence isn’t great but nor is Rubin’s attack so I just can’t see many goals going in here. I’d totally avoid the 1×2 market but under 2.5 goals at 3/4 really appeals to me today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Torpedo Zhodino – home win at 5/6.
Not many bookies have Shakhtyor left at these odds – most have already realised their mistake!
Shakhtyor are simply a better side than Torpedo Zhodino. The visitors are such a pain to play against when they’re in-form as they battle for every ball, work very hard all over the park and consistently close down opponents. However, there are a few sides that can outclass them and an in-form Shakhtyor side are definitely one of them. They enter this game on the back of a rivalry victory at Dinamo Minsk and a 2-0 win against Dinamo Brest so confidence is high in the Soligorsk camp. Alumona and Komarovski are doing the business in attack as new striker Yurchenko continues to adjust following a pre-season move from Dnepr Mogilev. Shakhtyor do need to be scoring more goals if they intend to challenge BATE Borisov’s Vysshaya Liga dominance over the past few years and Yurchenko could be the answer to that but only time will tell.
Shakhtyor have won this fixture for two out of the last three seasons, beating Torpedo 4-1 last year. Torpedo will make them work hard here so I doubt we’ll see the same scoreline, especially with a lot of experienced players in Torpedo’s ranks and a great run of form leading them into this game. However, they are a battling side without any real talent and it’s in games like this where I expect them to be brought back down to earth by their superior hosts.
For me, there’s no way Soligorsk should be 5/6 here – they should be shorter – so there should be value here.
Verdict: Shakhtyor Soligorsk to win at 5/6.
KI Klaksvik vs IF Fuglafjordur – lay KI Klaksvik at evens.
Under 2.5 goals at 8/5 definitely appeals to me here as the odds are too long but knowing the strong wins around the Faroe Islands at this time of year, I’ll stick to laying the hosts instead.
KI Klaksvik have patchy form so far this season although it’s fair to simply be impressed by the newly-promoted outfit, especially after they humbled Meistaradeildin giants HB Torshavn in their own backyard last match, running out 1-4 winners. However, KI’s problem is that they don’t break sides down well – they just counter-attack very efficiently. That explains why they can win so convincingly at HB Torshavn and yet lose at the likes of 07 Vestur Sorvagur. Indeed, KI have only won once in four home games this season, losing the other three whilst scoring just one goal along the way. KI keep the ball well and are hard to overcome sometimes but if you sit on a lead against them then you’ll generally get the win; it’s the scenario whereby a team is forced to attack them that benefits them.
However, I don’t expect IF Fuglafjordur to be the sacrificial lambs here as they’ve not attacked anyone with any degree of effort this season so why would they start now? Three out of their four away games have gone under 2.5 goals and only one has resulted in a loss as IF sit deep and occasionally make a rare attempt to get out of their own half. Generally, the option of “launch the ball to Saric/Muomaife and see what happens” doesn’t tend to yield many goals, surprisingly(!). IF have some good players and they’re good at containing sides but they don’t win games and that will no doubt hinder their campaign this time around.
All things considered, I cannot begin to imagine how KI are as short as 6/10 to win what is a difficult game for even the likes of EB/Streymur when they’ve done nothing but prove how hard they find games against defensive units. IF are going to come here for the draw and they’re bloody good at getting it too. For me, laying KI at evens looks a really good price here.
Verdict: Lay KI Klaksvik at evens.
Dainava vs Suduva Marijampole – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This is a fairly risky one but it’s one I like a lot due to Suduva’s iron defence.
There’s no question that A Lyga giants Suduva are the better side here; hell, they’re the second-best team in Lithuania so there’s just no contest. However, unlike title rivals Ekranas, Suduva don’t play flambuoyantly and that was perfectly illustrated with a feeble 0-2 win against an unfit and poor Atlantas side in a recent away match. Unsurprisingly, Suduva lined up defensively during their titan clash with Ekranas in their most recent away game but ended up losing 1-0, courtesy of a penalty from powerhouse striker Velicka. To get an idea of how good Suduva’s defence is, however, consider that Velicka’s penalty is the only goal they’ve conceded away from home in five games this season. I appreciate they’ve not faced good sides barring Ekranas but even so – Suduva can keep sides out easily and they don’t like to go mad and score a lot of goals either so the foundation for under 2.5 goals is definitely there.
Newly-promoted Dainava aren’t a side to underestimate this season and that helps here. True enough, they’re not a particularly talented side but they’re the kind of side that has a lot of local support and they work harder as a result. Therefore, they pressurise sides a lot and play as if their lives depended upon them not losing their games. Unsurprisingly, four out of their five home games in the A Lyga have gone under 2.5 goals with this mentality as they don’t really have the quality to consistently score goals but they defend well enough to keep the scoreline respectable. Unsurprisingly, Dainava’s passion for the surrounding area means that all their players are Lithuanian – it’s almost like the Basque part of Spain in Lithuanian terms – and that makes games against the big boys of the A Lyga very important indeed.
I’ve no doubt that Suduva will win this game; they’re just too good. However, I think under 2.5 goals is generously priced at evens so that’s my call here.
Team news – Suduva Marijampole miss Radzius.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Spartak Nal’chik vs Terek Grozny – under 2.5 goals at 6/10.
Seven out of Spartak’s ten games this season have gone under 2.5 goals as they continue to fail without Krasnozhan as their boss, which isn’t a surprise at all – he built this team and they don’t function without him. Terek are better than Spartak but they’ve not shown any signs of that under tactical bumbler Ruud Gullit, which also isn’t a surprise. It has been suggested that Gullit is only there from a merchandising perspective and I have to agree with that ’cause this guy has zero ability in management. They’ve scored one goal in five away games this season and eight out of their ten games have gone under 2.5 goals as a result. Both sides are in a bad way for different reasons although both ironically relate to their managers. Neither side has a good attack and neither will want to lose this one. For me, this is a nailed-on under 2.5 goals game and I think the odds of 6/10 are a bit generous with the above in mind.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/10.
Hammarby vs Degerfors – home win at 4/5.
Four wins from four Superettan home games says that Hammarby are too good to be in this division and I’d agree with those sentiments. Hammarby are a huge club and it’s about time they were back in the Allsvenskan. However, their displays haven’t been as highly-polished as the statistics suggest and they will need to improve if promotion is to remain a realistic possibility. That said, with Assyriska Sodertalje’s manager leaving to manage Malmo FF soon and Atvidaberg floundering a little, the opportunity is definitely there for Hammarby and it’s games like this that they must take advantage of as home wins mean a great deal in any league but especially in this one where most clubs can match one another.
Hammarby welcome back journeyman striker Runstrom for this game and although he’s not shown terrific form thus far, you know that the capability is there and that’s useful for Hammarby. Even so, Paulinho Guara, Ayranci, and even Castro-Tello have all demonstrated their worth in front of goal in Sweden so Hammarby definitely have goals in them. They’re conceding too many soft goals at the moment and that will hurt them ultimately but after a good run of late, I’m happy to give them a chance here.
Another large part of this tip is that I believe Degerfors are over-achieving. Three wins from four away games in the Superettan with that team? With no starlet Bertilsson anymore to carry them? I don’t buy it. Credit to them for their wins, of course, especially the three points miraculously taken from their trip to Atvidaberg. However, they have been brought back down to earth lately with back-to-back defeats at Angelholm (3-0) and at home against Ljungskile so they’re no longer riding a wave of momentum. This is a very well-organised side and they do have a star in their midst in midfielder Lallet, who has scored four goals and created three this season already. However, Degerfors aren’t as good as their form suggests and I don’t see them taking anything from a very potent Hammarby side today as a result, especially with Hammarby’s dominant home form.
For me, there’s some value in Hammarby at 4/5, especially with regular midfielder Eriksson absent for Degerfors today. I’d not touch it at 4/6 or lower as there are few games in the Superettan worthy of taking at such odds. However, 4/5 for a superior Hammarby to do what comes naturally to them appeals to me today.
Team news – Degerfors miss Eriksson.
Verdict: Hammarby to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Levski Sofia, Suduva Marijampole, Ekranas Panevezys, Home United.
Recommended bets:
Under 2.5 goals in Rubin Kazan’ vs Tom’ Tomsk and Spartak Nal’chik vs Terek Grozny at nearly 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Nations Cup:
Wales vs Northern Ireland (7) 2-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Belshina Bobriusk vs Dinamo Minsk (5) 2-2
Vitebsk vs Dinamo Brest (6) 1-1
FC Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (7) 2-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (7) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Montana (8) over 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
KI Klaksvik vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 0-0
B36 Torshavn vs Vikingur Gotu (5) over 2.5 goals
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs EB/Streymur (7) 0-1
B68 Toftir vs NSI Runavik (6) 1-2
B71 Sandur vs HB Torshavn (7) 0-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu vs KPV Kokkola (4)
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Dijon FCO (7)
Clermont Foot vs Boulogne (6)
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Metz (6)
Istres vs Chateauroux (5)
Stade Lavallois vs Reims (6)
Le Havre vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Le Mans vs Nantes (7)
Nimes vs AC Ajaccio (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Tours (5)
Troyes vs Vannes OC (4)
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Banga Gargzdai (5) 1-1
FBK Kaunas vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 0-1
Dainava vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 0-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Atlantas (10) -2.5 handicap
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nal’chik vs Terek Grozny (7) 0-0
Rubin Kazan’ vs Tom’ Tomsk (6) 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala (7) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Tanjong Pagar (9) -1.5 handicap
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Degerfors (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!