Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Zaporizhya
FreeToday’s featured game is the opening game of the season for Arsenal Kiev and Metalurg Zaporizhya. Arsenal Kiev had a great season last year, finishing seventh in the table, and will look to build on that this season as they’re an ambitious and determined team. Metalurg Zaporizhya had their limelight a couple of seasons ago and are now in decline as they showed more often than not last season so I expect more of the same from them this season.
What I admire most about this Arsenal Kiev side is their ability to perform without individual creativity or particultar flambuoyancy. They’re not a great footballing side but their well-organised team is hard to defeat without an early goal and/or superior players. I liked their ability to take their chances last season with Romanian target man Mazilu hard to handle; not to mention experienced ex-Shakhtar Donetsk striker Andriy Vorobey in attack with him, both of which were capable of scoring goals for Arsenal Kiev. The departure of Vorobey this season will be a blow for them, no doubt, much moreso than their various other departures. However, I still expect Arsenal to be the constant threat at home this season that they were last season where only the eventual top five (Shakhtar Donetsk, Dynamo Kiev, Metalist Kharkiv, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, and Karpty Lviv) won more home games than they did. Arsenal owe that fairly impressive home record to their ability to score goals, something they averaged doing over 1.5 times per home game. Arsenal have a very good home record against Metalurg Zaporizhya too, winning their last four meetings with today’s opponents whilst playing in Kiev, and that includes their game against Metalurg when they had their season to never forget! I’d be a tad hesitant in bluntly stating that Arsenal Kiev are the better side because Metalurg Zaporizhya can be a decent side on their day but what I would say is that the hosts have a lot going for them at the moment so I favour them an awful lot here today.
Of course, it always helps if the side you’re opposing doesn’t score goals – cue the entrance of Metalurg Zaporizhya. Frankly, I just don’t rate their attack, which is where their whole tactical setup fails, in my opinion. Chidi and Modebadze are sporadic at best and Tsigirlash just isn’t good enough. I simply cannot see where their goals are going to come from this year. They were the lowest scoring side in the top nine of the Ukrainian Premier League last season and I see little has changed at all that could improve that. For me, Metalurg’s best weapon is defence, particularly with ex-Dinamo Minsk defender Jan Tigorev there, who should really have moved on to a bigger club by now. He’s a good, solid player and helps the side keep others out – at home, at least. Metalurg were atrocious away from home last season because of how many times they were destroyed defensively, conceding an average of over two goals per away game, which is a horrific average in a low-scoring league like the Ukrainian Premier League. It didn’t help that their impotent attack failed to average scoring a goal per away game either but the two statistics combined led to a terrible record of ten defeats in fifteen away games, a record “bettered” only by newly-promoted Obolon Kiev and the now-relegated Zakarpatty Uzhhorod. Only Illichivets Mariupol conceded more on the road than Metalurg did last season so they really have to be careful this year that they’re not dragged into a a relgation battle because if they go down then ic an’t see them coming back up anytime soon.
Odds of 7/10 on the home win here aren’t spectacular but they should be shorter with the above in mind. This game shows two clubs going in opposite directions with Arsenal Kiev looking the far sharper of the two outfits with far more going in their favour. Ukrainian Premier League odds are traditionally too short to touch which is why I’ve got such an interst in this game because to be honest, Arsenal Kiev could and probably should be about 1/2 for this game, which makes 7/10 decent value, in my opinion.
Verdict: Arsenal Kiev to win at 7/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Rubin Kazan vs Krylya Sovetov Samara – under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Reigning champions Rubin Kazan have failed to really settle this season. They’ve performed so well and efficiently over the past two seasons that it’s a little odd to see them struggling. Nonetheless, they’re still third in the table because they’ve got the best defence in the division currently with just three goals conceded in eleven games. It’s fortunate that they have such a good defence, really, as their goalscoring tally is very low too with only Saturn Moscow Oblast, Amkar Perm, and today’s opponents Krylya Sovetov Samara having scored less goals than they have. It’s no wonder that Rubin Kazan are launching an impudent bid to try and sign Bayern Munich outcast Miroslav Klose with a paltry goalscoring record like theirs. They’ve simply never replaced Dominguez since his departure and I think that was a big mistake that perhaps they’re finally learning from. Nonetheless, Rubin still control the games that they play in but a lack of goalscoring potential accompanied by a solid defence tends to lead to boring, low-scoring games, which is why Rubin’s games average just 1.09 goals per game so far this season, which is the worst average in the division, unsurprisingly.
Due to a massive injury list at the start of their campaign, Krylya Sovetov Samara started their season badly. They’re not as good as they were a couple of years ago as it is but their casualty list left them beaten from pillar to post by every opponent that they faced. However, their reasonably strong defence is back and although they still suffer the odd lapse defensively (i.e. their bizarre 4-1 defeat at Sibir Novosibirsk) they’re still a fairly well-organised unit. Let’s face it – if they weren’t, they’d have definitely been relegated by now as goalscoring has long been an issue of theirs. Krylya have never really replaced Czech veteran striker Jan Koller in attack, which is where their problems stem from. Their best attacker nowadays is Savin and he’s not particularly good, in my eyes! If you don’t have a good striker in Krylya’s 4-5-1 formation then the ball is always coming back and eventually your defence buckles. I mean, consider that Krylya have now played eleven games this season and nobody in their side has scored more than once yet. That’s not goals being shared throughout their team – that’s pure impotence, from the core to the exterior. It’s no wonder that Krylya have lost four out of five on the road this season as a result and average conceding twice per away game too!
Rubin should really win the game today but there’s little value there for me. A lack of match practice for both sides and a large degree of impotence in front of goal means that anything but under 2.5 goals in this game would be a huge surprise. The odds on this selection are far too generous given the above information so my recommendation for today’s game is under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Zenit St.Petersburg – under 2.5 goals at 19/20.
Alaniya’s home record since promotion has been much stronger than I’d expected it to be, to be honest, so credit must go to them. They’ve only lost once in six home games and they’ve won twice so they’re certainly no pushovers at home. They’ve done well at home because they score over 1.5 goals per home game, which allows their leaky defence a bit of leeway. Only two out of their six home games have gone over 2.5 goals and those were in 1-2 defeats against CSKA Moscow and Rostov-na-Donu respectively. Basically, if Alaniya score, be concerned because they always have the capability to concede goals against anyone.
However, I’m banking on a solid Zenit St.Petersburg defence to not concede here today, hence the under 2.5 goals selection. It’s been a long break and Alaniya will be lacking match practice, no doubt, whereas Zenit played Anzhi at home a few days ago in the Premier League and won 2-1. Zenit have only conceded once in six away games this season, winning five times and drawing once, which makes them a very hard side to score against. They’ve already won at both CSKA Moscow and Dinamo Moscow this season so there quality cannot be questioned here. They don’t score many goals but they often score enough to win with such a resolute defence.
Ultimately, Zenit are twice the side that Alaniya are – fact. Zenit’s watertight defence barely concedes against anyone so even a potent Alaniya side will struggle today. I expect Zenit to grind out a low-scoring win today and the odds of under 2.5 goals as a result look rather interesting to me, although I can’t deny that I do fear that token goal that Alaniya seemed to get quite a lot before the mid-season break. However, I’ll take the chance because it’s been a while since they played so I’ll call under 2.5 goals here today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 19/20.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
African Nations:
Togo vs Malawi (6) 1-0
Botswana vs Chad (6) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Olmedo Riobamba vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs Hameenlinna (6)
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Sporting Fingal (6) 1-1
Drogheda United vs Bohemians (7) 0-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs UCD (7) 2-0
Sligo Rovers vs Galway United (5) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) under 2.5 goals
Rubin Kazan vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) under 2.5 goals
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Dinamo Moscow (4) 1-1
Rostov-na-Donu vs Spartak Moscow (5) 1-1
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Avangard Kursk (6) over 2.5 goals
Luch-Enerigya Vladivostok vs Salyut Belgorod (7)
FK Khimki vs Rotor Volgograd (6) under 2.5 goals
Kubran Krasnodar vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (6) under 2.5 goals
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Mordovia Saransk (7)
Irtysh Omsk vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (6) under 2.5 goals
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs FK Krasnodar (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Baltika Kaliningrad (5)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (5)
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Balestier Khalsa (6) 1-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Sevastopol (6) 1-0
Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (7) 2-1
Illichivets Mariupol vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 1-1
Obolon Kiev vs Dynamo Kiev (8) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!