Frosinone vs Atalanta Bergamo
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Today’s secondary featured game is between Frosinone and Atalanta Bergamo in Italy’s Serie B. A cursive glance at the league table may suggest that this should be a straightforward away win but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a straightforward away win in this division so be wary here!
Frosinone are bottom of the table and the departure of goalkeeper Brison is unlikely to have helped them much as only Piacenza have conceded more goals in Serie B than Frosinone have. Indeed, only a handful of sides have conceded more goals than Frosinone at home so it’s easy to see where the problem lies. Frosinone aren’t great in front of goal themselves, admittedly, but they do tend to get their token goals so it’s not the most pressing area for them to address, really. Frosinone have only lost four times at home in Serie B this season but the most notable characteristic of that fact is that they’ve lost to Livorno, Crotone, Reggina, and Empoli, all of which are top seven sides so they’ve unintentionally set themselves a “ceiling” at home this season. Frosinone will encounter a similar issue against Atalanta tonight as Atalanta are one of the best sides in Serie B, in my view, so they know that they have an uphill task ahead of them. To make matters worse for the hosts, they’re missing two essential defenders tonight – Terranova and Bocchetti – as well as experienced striker Santoruvo, regular midfielder Bottone, and what was formerly their back-up goalkeeper Sicignano. It’s hard enough to be in Frosinone’s position at this stage of the season but with some important players absent for this game, I don’t envision a good night ahead of them.
So the signs look good for an Atalanta win here, right? Well, partially, but don’t go throwing your life’s savings on this one. Atalanta have a better side than Frosinone – that much is beyond debate – but can they score the necessary quota of goals to make it count? Ironically, goalscoring has been Atalanta’s problem on the road this season with defending being their strongest area which is contradictory to their somewhat flambuoyant style. Goalscoring will be their issue tonnight too with strikers Rupolo and Tribocchi both absent for this game, which is a hefty blow for the visitors, who also miss star defender Troest. However, Atalanta have a full squad available to them aside from the afore-mentioned and that does mean that their excellent midfield is available to them, fortunately. Atalanta’s midfield should be able to dominate this game as they’re very strong and also as Frosinone miss Bottone tonight. Their midfield is going to have to be at its best too, if Atalanta have any intention of winning this game as they’re bereft of attackers tonight. To their credit, Atalanta have won more away games in Serie B than the bulk of the Serie B sides have this season so they know how to win away from home. However, the absence of strikers means that caution must be utilised here!
Away games in Serie B are not a favourite of mine to bet on and that’s because they don’t often happen. However, bottom club Frosinone are missing too many important players here, especially in defence, so I have to hand the advantage to Atalanta tonight. If their midfield create the necessary chance then the visitors should edge this one tonight so that’s my call for this game although I’d leave it if the odds drop further.
Team news – Frosinone miss Biasi, Biso, Bottone, Catacchini, Santoruvo, Sicignano, and Terranova whereas Atalanta Bergamo miss Rupolo, Troest, and Tribocchi.
Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at evens.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Alki vs Ethnikos Achnas – home win at 5/4.
Larnaca minnows Alki have to fancy their chances here after their unprecedented derby victory over AEK Larnaca as morale will be high in the camp. Alki are yet to register their first “home” win of the season, however, with nine attempts all failing. This is largely due to the fact that they’re still sharing Anorthosis Famagusta’s ground for the current campaign but it’s become a bit of a mental bugbear for them as time goes by so Alki need to utilise the momentum taken from their heroic win last match in this game to shake off the mental doubts that they’re having.
Since their win against AEK Larnaca, Alki have even won at Enosis Neon Paralimni in the Cypriot Cup, which has not only taken them to two consecutive wins but also means that they’ve now kept two clean sheets so they are a capable outfit on their day and it’s refreshing to see that they’re finally demonstrating it.
Alki’s record can be considered to be quite harsh on them, really. They’re not a great side – don’t get me wrong – but they’re a decent side and they’re hard to beat when they’re in-form so I’ll give them their due respect here.
Visitors Ethnikos Achnas are a side that has a reputation of being hard to beat too so we can expect a resilient game from them today. However, they do have problems when it comes to scoring goals and I’m hoping that Alki can exploit that weakness today by scoring the first goal as Ethnikos Achnas have failed to win every game this season in which they’ve fallen behind. However, I’d generally avoid this game due to the relative equality between these two sides so why the hell am I getting involved in this one? Simple – absences. Ethnikos Achnas not only miss important Brazilian midfielder Pincelli and regular Schlichting but they also miss key defender Miliutinovic. Ethnikos Achnas work very well as a unit but the problem is against Alki that they can’t function at the same level of their usual unit due to players being absent who cannot simply be replaced from a quality perspective – they can only be replaced by quantity – so I have my doubts over the away side today.
Do approach this one with caution as Alki’s mental issues surrounding their failure to win “at home” this season may make strange things happen but whilst the price on Alki is 5/4 or longer, I think there’s value in taking the home win today.
Team news – Ethnikos Achnas miss Pincelli, Schlichting, Miliutinovic, and Ivanoski.
Verdict: Alki to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil U20
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today guys – sorry!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Uruguay vs Colombia (5) 1-1
Argentina vs Ecuador (7) 1-0
Chile vs Brazil (8) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki vs Ethnikos Achnas (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Chateauroux (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs VfL Bochum (6)
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Atalanta Bergamo (5)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Den Bosch vs Fortuna Sittard (6) both sides to score
Go Ahead Eagles vs Veendam (5)
Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Helmond Sport (5)
MVV Maastricht vs Emmen (6) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Racing Santander vs Valencia CF (4) 1-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Konyaspor (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!