Genoa vs Valencia
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Genoa and Valencia. The Italians enter this game knowing that they need at least a point to qualify for the latter stages of this competition although they’ll realistically require all three of those points. Visitors Valencia will reach the latter stages of this competition if they do anything but lose this game.
Hosts Genoa are traditionally strong at home in any competition and have won both of their home encounters in the UEFA Europa League so far this season. They’ve already scored five times at home in the Europa League this season and average scoring 2.5 goals per home game in Serie A. To put it bluntly, Genoa play very attacking football and they play it very well too, scoring a lot of goals along the way. Genoa scored twice in Spain against Valencia in their 3-2 defeat there in the reversal of this fixture so they know how to find their way past the Spaniards already.
Visitors Valencia are a similar side to Genoa in terms of employing attacking football at all times with little care or ability for defence. Valencia have scored in both of their away games in Europe this season, drawing both but scoring three times. Valencia have scored over two goals per away game in the Primera Liga this season and have been playing some lovely attacking football so I’d be surprised if they don’t score in this game. Valencia don’t need to win this game; they simply need to avoid defeat so they’re going to have to score at least once as I’m confident that Genoa will score too.
With Genoa needing to win this game and Valencia likely to score in this game, it seems logical that this game will better the over 2.5 goals mark as it did in the reversal of this fixture.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Anderlecht – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This game follows a very similar pattern to my opening preview ahead of today’s games. We basically have two very attacking sides that score plenty of goals domestically and a sufficient amount in Europe for this bet to bear value. Anderlecht need to take something from this game whereas Ajax don’t so we should see a very open and goal-filled game tonight!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
SL Benfica vs AEK Athens -1.75 handicap at 8/5.
Hosts SL Benfica have gone off the boil a little lately results-wise but they’ve still notched up eight goals in their last three competitive games. They’re a very attacking side with tremendous potency and have already scored eleven goals in five UEFA Europa League games in their current campaign. Benfica have a tremendous wealth of attacking ability to choose from and tend to exemplify that very well, particularly domestically where they’ve averaged scoring over four goals per home game, which is frankly tremendous! Although Benfica have no need to play well in this game, it’s in their nature to attack and score goals so I thoroughly expect them to do so.
Visitors AEK Athens are already out of this competition and have nothing to play for. Their somewhat unstable and slow defence tends to be exposed by incisive sides and AEK tend to struggle as they’re not big goalscorers. They’ve conceded just under two goals per game in European football so far this season and now face a trip to what is effectively the Lion’s Den. AEK are amongst the biggest conceding sides in their domestic league too so it’s almost fate that they’re going to concede goals here. They’ve scored just one goal on the road in Europe this season so the home win looks likely here.
I can’t see beyond a home win here and the value looks to be in handicapping the hosts in a game that they’re more than capable of strolling to win.
Verdict: SL Benfica to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 8/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Anderlecht (7) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Zagreb vs FC Poli Timisoara (8) -1.75 handicap
LOSC Lille vs Slavia Prague (8) 2-0
Genoa vs Valencia (6) 2-2
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Hamburger SV (5) 1-1
Rapid Vienna vs Celtic (6) 2-1
Lazio vs Levski Sofia (7) 1-0
Villarreal vs Salzburg (8) 2-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Twente Enschede (6) 1-1
Fenerbahce vs Sheriff Tiraspol (8) under 2.5 goals
SL Benfica vs AEK Athens (8) 2-0
Everton vs BATE Borisov (5) 1-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Deportivo Pereira vs Atletico Bucaramanga (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!