Germinal Beerschot vs Anderlecht
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between Germinal Beerschot and Anderlecht. Generally speaking, Germinal Beerschot are a good home side and shouldn’t be underestimated on their own turf but I’m going to do exactly that here and I’ll explain why.
Ok; let’s understand how Germinal operate. They attack at home and gain as many points as possible to compensate for the inevitable points they drop with disappointing but entertaining away displays. However, I think it’s fair to say that they’re not very good at anything, really. They have a great work ethic and believe in themselves an awful lot quality-wise they really tend to struggle.
Now, let’s consider that arguably their two best players left the squad over the winter break and let’s see what that has done to Germinal. Huge striker Sidibe has left the club and nobody seems to know where he is – they can’t can’t attack with any kind of purpose without him and it really shows. The other big departure was defender Kagelmacher, who has gone to ply his trade in Germany. Germinal hardly specialised in defending anyway but he was by far their best defender and without him I really expect them to struggle at the back. Ultimately, those two players moving on should make Germinal slide rather rapidly down the table and thus I expect them to really struggle here.
Anderlecht are going from the strength to strength and I’m quite serious when I say that I don’t believe anyone can stop them. They have too much ability, too much firepower, and way too many options for other Belgian sides to contend with. Biglia, Canesin, de Sutter, Mbokani, Jovanovic – the list goes on and on. This bunch of players is too hard to play against and an under-strength, average Germinal Beerschot should have a horrendously tough game today if Anderlecht see fit to enforce it.
Anderlecht have been especially impressive lately, absolutely ripping Gent to shreds in their most recent game, not that the scoreline eluded to exactly how much Anderlecht dominated the game. They create a lot of chances and tend to score a lot of goals as a result. Jacobs wisely spent the money that the club raised from selling Lukaku and it’s paying huge dividends right now. Yeah, Anderlecht are perhaps a bit slow and clumsy at the back but when you score goals like they do it just doesn’t matter.
Anderlecht aren’t often the side away from home that they are at home and I am conscious of that fact. However, they’re more than good enough to win this game comfortably and they’re playing particularly well so I’m happy to take the chance here. I’ve taken the Asian Handicap rather than the European Handicap for the insurance of Anderlecht conceding a sloppy goal or not playing at 100% capacity. However, I can’t deny that the odds on Anderlecht beating the -1 Asian Handicap are far too good to overlook and thus that’s my call today.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Kortrijk vs Zulte-Waregem – away win with draw no bet at 9/5.
Kortrijk with seven home wins from ten games this season and Zulte-Waregem with no wins in ten away games this season? I imagine a few eyebrows are raising about now!
However, I really, really like this one. I respect Kortrijk a lot because of their enthusiasm and determination to play attacking football at all times. Their financial problems are getting the better of them, though. The only word that comes to mind to sum up their recent displays would be “unconvincing” and given that their strength is scoring goals rather than keeping opponents out, there’s definitely an accident or two waiting to happen whilst they struggle onward. Goals are not coming freely to them right now but they’re still conceding soft goals and to me, that makes them vulnerable.
Can Zulte-Waregem take advantage of that and claim their first three points of the season? I think so, yes. The fans’ favourite manager Dury is back at the helm and it’s no coincidence that their results have improved since he’s returned. Additionally, French playmaker Berrier returned to Zulte-Waregem following an unsuccessful move to Standard de Liege and he gives them that something special that they’ve lacked this season. Zulte-Waregem are a much better side than their league placing indicates and although only their record of being hard to beat this season backs up what I am saying, I’m confident that you’ll see more positive results from them as the season winds out. Zulte-Waregem totally outplayed Germinal Beerschot last match and the scoreline should have been higher, in my view.
My only crib is that Zulte-Waregem don’t take enough of their chances but Kortrijk’s defending is not convincing at any time so the opportune moment is there for the visitors. They’re good enough to capitalise on it and I don’t think they’ll lose this one based on how the two clubs have played lately so I feel there’s a lot of value with the away win draw no bet odds of 9/5.
Verdict: Zulte-Waregem to win with draw no bet at 9/5.
Bolton Wanderers vs Swansea City – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
I like this one a lot more than I should when you consider that Bolton bring a lot of momentum into this game following their 3-1 win against Liverpool but I’ll explain why I’m opting for it.
First of all, approach this one with caution. You never know what changes managers will make for the FA Cup and both sides have limited squads whilst focusing on avoiding the drop so perhaps wait for the line-ups to take the bet, if you intend to do so.
I really, really fancy Swansea to win this one though. Their ability to keep the ball is like nothing I’ve ever seen from a side that’s only just been promoted from the Championship. Rodgers has done a terrific job there and this Swansea side has a great understanding. Their biggest problem is not having strikers worthy of being in the Premier League, which is why they’ve lost every away game in the Premier League this season in which they’ve fallen behind in. Their midfield is excellent and their defence is surprisingly reliable too but their strikers are just weak.
However, they’re up against Bolton, who easily have the worst defence in the league for me. Bolton’s defence is pure Championship at best and I think they’re going to have a nightmare trying to deal with Swansea today. Even Graham should be able to run amok amongst an unfamiliar and highly unconvincing Bolton defence. Bolton’s sole strength is attacking but they need the ball to do that and Swansea keep the ball extremely well. With midfield reinforcements a-plenty arriving for Swansea in this transfer window, I think there’s a chance that Swansea will field a stronger side than Bolton here, just because they can.
For me, Swansea are far, far more consistent than Bolton. They keep the ball better, they play better football, and if they take their chances then taking Swansea to win this one with draw no bet cover looks a steal at 11/10.
Verdict: Swansea City to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim – home win to nil at 21/20.
Dortmund’s drubbing of Hamburg lately leaves them in good stead for the Bundesliga title push and they’ve got an ideal game today, in my view. Hoffenheim can be a tough side to break down but they’re not a goalscoring side. Indeed, they’re a blatant “feeder club” as I call them – they just sell all their talent and don’t try to build for the future. They’ve inexplicably let Sigurdsson leave on-loan in this window and have now sold their only reliable striker Ibisevic, who has scored over a quarter of their Bundesliga goals this season. Hoffenheim might be hard to break down due to their organisation but they’ve made themselves very vulnerable by drastically reducing their goalscoring threat. Dortmund are very good at winning games at home whilst keeping clean sheets and I think that they’re more than capable of doing that against an under-strength and unadventurous Hoffenheim side today at decent odds of 21/20.
Verdict: Bv09 Borussia Dortmund to win to nil at 21/20.
Heerenveen vs FC Utrecht – over 3 goals at 4/5.
Can’t defend vs won’t defend? I’m all over this one. These two sides find it hard to keep clean sheets against…well, anyone. In fact, I don’t believe that Utrecht have kept a clean sheet this season! Integral centre-back Zomer is out for Heereveen but their lethal threesome are still together in attack and they should have a field day against a horrendous Utrecht defence. I expect both sides to score and most probably a convincing Heerenveen win. However, rather than entering the 1×2 market that is utterly devoid of value, I’m far happier to take over 3 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Rio Ave vs Academica de Coimbra – home win at 6/5.
I’m normally a bit of an advocate for Academica because they do play some nice football from time to time. However, those times have been few and far between lately and they’ve looked very disorganised and lacking in motivation. It’s no surprise, really – they’ve got a big cup game soon and that will undoubtedly hold all of their focus. They’ve drafted youth players into the squad to replace departed players but it’s naturally taking time for them to gel. Defending has never been a strong point of Academica and given that they’re not doing well in attack at the moment, I have to favour the hosts here. Rio Ave are nothing special but they’re consistent and reliable, especially at home. In front of their home fans on a difficult pitch, I think Rio Ave are priced generously at 6/5, especially with the focus of Academica likely to be elsewhere.
Verdict: Rio Ave to win at 6/5.
Rangers vs Hibernian – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I’d probably not take Rangers to beat this handicap against anyone else in the SPL right now given their striking absentees but disappointing display after disappointing display from Hibernian leave me with no option. Rangers are the better side here, as we all know, and they should make it count against a Hibs side that struggles to keep the ball, create chances, and even struggles to defend. I think there’s a complete mismatch on show here and at Ibrox I’ll be surprised if Rangers don’t make it count, irrespective of their absentees up front.
Verdict: Rangers to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Brisbane Roar, Omonia Nicosia, Olympique Lyonnais, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, Olympiakos Piraeus, Heracles Almelo, SL Benfica, Rangers.
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht -1 AH, Heracles Almelo, and Olympiakos Piraeus at around 8/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Botswana vs Guinea (6) 0-0
Ghana vs Mali (7) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs Anderlecht (7) 0-2
Racing Genk vs OH Leuven (5) 2-1
AA Gent vs Sint-Truiden (7) over 2.5 goals
Lokeren vs Mechelen (7) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Zulte-Waregem (4) 0-1
Westerlo vs Lierse SK (6) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Rangers vs La Serena (4) 1-0
Palestino vs Universidad Catolica (5) 1-1
Huachipato vs Santiago Wanderers (7) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Envigado vs Cucuta Deportivo (6) 2-1
Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin (5) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Real Cartagena (7) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Anagennisi Deryneia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (5) 1-2
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Ethnikos Achnas (4) 0-1
Ermis vs Omonia Nicosia (8) 0-2
AEL Limassol vs Aris Limassol (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Reading vs Bristol City (6)
Peterborough United vs Portsmouth (5)
English FA Cup:
Queens Park Rangers vs Chelsea (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs Manchester United (6) 1-1
Blackpool vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Stoke City (4) 1-2
Bolton Wanderers vs Swansea City (4) 1-2
Leicester City vs Swindon Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield United vs Birmingham City (5) under 2.5 goals
Hull City vs Crawley Town (4) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Norwich City (5) 1-1
Millwall vs Southampton (5) 1-1
Stevenage vs Notts County (5) 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United (5) 1-0
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 0-1
Lorient vs Sochaux (7) 2-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Dijon FCO (8) over 2.5 goals
OGC Nice vs Montpellier HSC (6) 0-1
Toulouse vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 2-1
LOSC Lille vs Saint-Etienne (6) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim (8) 2-0
Bayern Munich vs VfL Wolfsburg (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Werder Bremen vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4) 1-1
Augsburg vs Kaiserslautern (6) 1-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Hamburger SV (6) 0-1
Koln vs Schalke 04 (6) 1-1
Greek Super League:
OFI Crete vs Xanthi (6) 1-0
Panionios vs Kerkyra (7) 2-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ergotelis (8) 2-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Haifa (4) 1-0
Ashdod vs Hapoel Acre (7) over 2.5 goals
Bnei Sakhnin vs Bnei Yehuda (6) 2-1
Ironi Ramat Hasharon vs Maccabi Petach Tikva (7) under 2.5 goals
Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (7) 2-0
Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Beitar Jerusalem (5) 0-1
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Parma (7) 1-0
Juventus vs Udinese (4) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Puebla (6) 1-0
Tigres UANL vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 2-1
Pachuca vs Queretaro (7) 2-0
Atlas vs Toluca (6) 0-1
San Luis vs America (5) 0-0
Atlante vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heerenveen vs FC Utrecht (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap (7) 1-0
Heracles Almelo vs Excelsior Rotterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
Roda JC Kerkrade vs AZ Alkmaar (4) 2-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-0
Feirense vs SL Benfica (8) 0-2
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Dunfermline Athletic (7) 2-1
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Mirren (5) 1-0
Motherwell vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-0
Rangers vs Hibernian (8) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) 0-2
Real Madrid vs Real Zaragoza (9) -1.5 handicap
Villarreal CF vs Barcelona (7) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcoyano vs Real Valladolid (6) both sides to score
Hercules Alicante vs Villarreal II (7) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona II vs Huesca (7) over 2.5 goals
Sabadell vs Deportivo Xerez (5)
Alcorcon vs Las Palmas (7) over 2.5 goals
Guadalajara vs Numancia (4)
Girona vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Real Murcia vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 2-1
Bursaspor vs Galatasaray (5) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!