Gloria Bistrita vs Vaslui
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Romanian Liga encounter between Gloria Bistrita and Vaslui. The hosts have enjoyed upsetting the odds from time to time this season whereas Vaslui have been more than a match for everyone that they’ve faced so we should see an interesting game here.
Gloria Bistrita enter this game on the back of a fairly surprising 0-1 victory at Brasov last match. It was only their second win of the season and Brasov’s second home defeat of the current campaign so it was a surprise to say the least. However, Gloria Bistrita have proven this season that they’re a side not to underestimate, especially at home, where they’ve lost just three times in thirteen home games, winning six times along the way. However, their problem is inconsistency, which is undoing all of their good work. They can win at difficult places like Brasov but lose 2-4 against Universitatea Cluj and 2-0 at Targu Mures – it just doesn’t make sense. Additionall, their home record looks strong on paper but when examined more closely, it looks a lot more logical:
Gloria Bistrita 3 Rapid Bucharest 2
Gloria Bistrita 3 Poli Timisoara 3
Gloria Bistrita 0 CFR Cluj 3
Gloria Bistrita 1 Steaua Bucharest 0
Gloria Bistrita 0 Dinamo Bucharest 2
Notice the pattern here? Aside from under-achieving Steaua Bucharest, all of the Romanian heavyweights have scored a lot of goals here. Ten out of their sixteen goals conceded at home this season have been against the giants of the division over five games, which is an average of two goals conceded per home game. I’m partially inclined to remove Steaua Bucharest from that list because they were playing as poorly as Sportul Studentesc at the time but I’ll keep them in for now!
Therefore, we’ve found the weak spot of Gloria Bistrita; defending against the better sides in the division. That flaw isn’t aided by the absence of defenders Tudose and Cafasso today, which should prove to be a large problem for the hosts here. In addition to that issue, they also have the problem of goalscoring with only Cavalli in attack due to the continued absence of Coroian and the fact that he’ll need to do it with half of Gloria Bistrita’s midfield missing with Marginean and Predescu both absent today too. Summarised; Gloria Bistrita are missing five of their starting eleven and against one of the best sides in Romania right now, that could spell trouble.
Vaslui aren’t notorious for their goalscoring, sadly, and that my give them issues here too. They’ve got the perfect opportunity to make it three wins from their last three visits to Gloria Bistrita today but may struggle with strikers Wesley and Bello both absence, leaving the goalscoring duty with Adailton and Pouga. However, on the back of a morale-boosting victory against Dinamo Bucharest, you have to fancy the visitors to be confident about securing three points today. Hell, they’ve scored six goals on their last two visits to Bistrita and they’ve only conceded once during their last three visits so they know how to win here.
Goalscoring does remain Vaslui’s biggest enemy, however. I’m banking on Gloria Bistrita’s defensive absentees to help Vaslui out here but the odds are still tempting as long as they don’t dive below evens. The visitors are simply the better of these two sides and with their hosts missing so many regulars, I can’t help but side with a Vaslui victory today.
Team news – Gloria Bistrita miss Cafasso, D’Agostino, Tudose, Predescu, Coroian, and Marginean whereas Vaslui miss Gladstone, Wesley, and Bello.
Verdict: Vaslui to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Manchester United vs Chelsea – home win at 13/10.
I’ll be previewing a game about my beloved Manchester United for the first time in a while as I think that there’s finally value back in doing so!
United have emerged very strongly since back-to-back defeats against Liverpool and Chelsea respectively and now look almost unbeatable again. They play well tactically with their defence allowing few chances against them and their strikers being incisive no matter who is fielded. It’s no coincidence that United have improved dramatically since Valencia’s return with the pacey Ecuadorian causing no end of problems for each side he’s played against. I’m not saying that he’s the hearbeat of the team; he simply relieves Nani of all the creativity, which makes it harder for clubs to defend against United, especially as they have no idea which flank they’ll go down. This continued threat means that United attack more, score more goals, and ease the pressure on their defence, which in turn has made their defence stronger. The return of Ferdinand brought back leadership and confidence at the back, which again makes Manchester United very strong. I’ve not seen United play as well as they are currently all season long so I have to side with them here.
Additionally, United are at home. I’ve been critical of United this season because they’ve been inconsistent and frustrating. However, United at home have been as daunting as ever and when they play at home, you generally have to expect them to win. How many other sides could play the weekend after a vital Champions League game and drop eight players and still win the weekend game comfortably with a rotated team? I love Barcelona to pieces but even they couldn’t do that! United’s depth is a massive boost and with all their players fresh, confident, and very much in-form, I have to side with the hosts here.
Visitors Chelsea often struggled at United, just as United often do at Chelsea. Home advantage plays a big part in the meetings between these two sides and it should prove to be the same again tonight. Chelsea are under more pressure than United with world-class striker Torres still struggling to rediscover the form we saw from him at Liverpool. His talent is undeniable, however, so it’s only a matter of time, I’m sure. The problem I have with Chelsea is Ancelotti, however. I said when they appointed him that I didn’t think he was right for the job and I stand by that statement. In my view, Chelsea haven’t progresssed under his management and it was substitutions like Anelka replacing Drogba at Stamford Bridge last week that confirmed my thoughts even moreso. Drogba was playing well against United whereas Anelka was to be partnered by Torres – two strikers that play the same game! The most concerning factor for Chelsea was that they only tested United two or three times in the game – they were lapping against the shore of the United defence and I expect more of the same tonight, especially as they must attack United, which is always dangerous at Old Trafford.
Nobody doubts that Chelsea have the firepower to do damage here. They’ve got some of the best strikers in the world at their disposal and it’d be foolish to write them off here. However, United’s defence is very strong and given how deadly the hosts are on the counter-attack and at home, especially with so much pace on the flanks and so many attacking players in form, my call here has to be the home win at 13/10.
Team news – Manchester United miss Hargreaves and Fletcher whilst having doubts over Rafael whereas Chelsea have doubts over Alex and Benayoun.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Liga de Quito, Dinamo Bucharest, Celtic.
Recommended bets:
Vaslui and Dinamo Bucharest at under 2/1.
Manchester United and Celtic at just under 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Manchester United vs Chelsea (6) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Barcelona (6) 1-2
Copa Libertadores:
Penarol vs Independiente (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Liga de Quito vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (8) 2-0
Colo Colo vs Deportivo Tachira (7) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Al Ain (6) 1-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Lustenau vs First Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Admira Wacker vs Grodig (7)
Hartberg vs WAC/St.Andra (6)
St.Polten vs Lustenau (4)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 0-0
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Hull City (6)
Millwall vs Bristol City (6)
Derby County vs Leeds United (4) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield United vs Cardiff City (7)
Leicester City vs Crystal Palace (6)
Portsmouth vs Coventry City (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Preston North End (5)
Scunthorpe United vs Reading (6)
Barnsley vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley (5)
Watford vs Norwich City (6)
Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough (5)
English League One:
Leyton Orient vs Carlisle United (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Yeovil Town vs Notts County (6)
Rochdale vs Southampton (6) over 2.5 goals
Walsall vs Brentford (5) both sides to score
English League Two:
Bury vs Burton Albion (7)
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest vs Unirea Urziceni (8) 2-0
Gloria Bistrita vs Vaslui (6) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Balestier Khalsa (4) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!