Granada vs Alcorcon
FreeToday’s featured game is the Spanish Segunda Liga game between Granada and Alcorcon. Both sides are newcomers to this division but it’s hosts Granada who have made the bigger impact with a particularly strong home record and it’s Granada who look the more likely out of these two sides to still be in the Segunda Liga next season too.
Granada have played eight home games in the Segunda Liga this season and have impressively won five of them, drawn twice, and lost just once, which was in their first home game of the season against giants Real Valladolid. Despite being “newbies” in this division, it’s also worth noting that only promotion favourites Real Betis Balompie have scored more goals at home than today’s hosts with Granada averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game. You’d think that Granada attacking in such a relentless fashion would damage their defensive record but no, that’s impressive too – Granada have only shipped six goals in eight home games this season! Granada owe their impressive goalscoring record predominantly to on-loan striker Geijo, who has already established something at Granada this season that we all knew anyway – he’s too good for the Segunda Liga! He’s bagged thirteen times in fifteen games this season and whilst he’s getting support from the likes of Chilean midfielder Orellana, Granada will remain a potent force. They’ve notched up eleven goals in their last three home games and although I’m a little dubious about sides carrying momentum over a winter break, I still really fancy Granada here.
However, I back Granada here with a heavy heart as I have a lot of passion for little Alcorcon, especially after they tore their illustrious local rivals Real Madrid apart in the Copa del Rey last season. I want Alcorcon to do well in this division and they’re partially doing so but only at home. Away from home, no side has a worse away record than Alcorcon in the Segunda Liga this season as they’ve lost six out of eight on the road, drawing the other two games. They average leaking two goals per away game and scoring just over a goal per every two away games. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t know if momentum carries over the winter break or not – it depends on the players/teams – but Alcorcon will be hoping that it doesn’t as they’ve lost four out of their last five games, drawing the other encounter. The experience of Fernando Sales, Carlos Martinez, and Quini in this Alcorcon side is irreplaceable and it’s those players that are keeping this side in with a chance of avoiding the drop. However, they can’t carry the side away from home and I’d be surprised to see them start doing so today, especially against such a potent host as Granada!
Therefore, I’m left with no option but to call the home win here at rather generous odds of 4/5. The -1.5 goal handicap option is tempting but I’ll give it a miss as neither side has played a competitive game for a few weeks now. Granada winning this game at 4/5 looks rather generously-priced, however, so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Granada to win at 4/5 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Melbourne Heart vs North Queensland Fury – home win at 4/5.
Melbourne Heart have finally got back on the winning trail with back-to-back victories and momentum is finally beginning to side with them as a result, rather than go against them. They miraculously (and deservedly) won 1-2 at in-form Adelaide United to start this little run off and won at sleeping giants Sydney FC last match to further their record so it’s not like they’ve faced mediocre sides either. Interestingly enough, Melbourne Heart welcome back striker Terra, which is a big boost for the hosts as it was previously veteran Aloisi and/or Sibon versus whoever lined up against them and neither of them are on the right side of thirty and thus pace and stamina isn’t really on their side! The Heart now have options in attack and a largely full squad to choose from and with two consecutive wins leading them into this game and in the knowledge that they’ve already beaten North Queensland Fury twice this season, I have to call the home win here.
It aids my cause that battling North Queensland Fury miss important midfielder Malik and squad rotation midfielder Cernak because the Fury operate as a unit and missing one key player does tend to do them a lot of damage. You’d do well to find a side in the A-League that fights harder than the visitors today but you’d also do well to find a side that emerges with less from games despite the effort that they put in than North Queensland Fury do. They’ve scored two goals in their last six A-League games, which pretty much explains why they’re struggling, so it’s no surprise that they’ve lost four of those games. They were a tad unlucky not to beat New Zealanders Wellington Phoenix in their last home game but that’s how luck goes sometimes and it’s massively against the Fury at the moment.
Odds of 4/5 on the home win didn’t appeal to me until I saw that Terra had returned because the Heart aren’t really good enough to command such odds, usually. However, the Fury’s inability to score goals and missing Malik means that the opportunity is there for the Heart to take three points today and with three good strikers now available to them, two of which are very experienced, I have to favour a Melbourne Heart victory at decent odds of 4/5.
Team news – North Queensland Fury miss Malik, Cernak, and Ham for this game.
Verdict: Melbourne Heart to win at 4/5.
Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Adelaide United welcome back captain Dodd and number one goalkeeper Galekovic for this game so they’re at least re-inforced for this top of the table clash with in-form Brisbane Roar. Indeed, Adelaide will have been pleased to finally get some points on the board after a disappointing run of form saw them lose three consecutive wins. However, the 2-0 win at home to Sydney FC recently will have done them the power of good and let’s face it – they needed to win it or risked being left behind by today’s opponents. Adelaide not only have their number one and captain back but are also sat happily in the knowledge that their Flores/Van Dijk duo in attack are both very much fit and available for this game and will be sure to wreak havoc as they usually do. Four out of Adelaide’s last six A-League home games have gone over 2.5 goals because they’ve got arguably the best attacking duo in the division but are prone to conceding silly goals and I expect more of the same today as a result.
I was actually fairly tempted to back Brisbane Roar to win this game as they’ve hardly stuttered at all but Brisbane miss captain McKay due to international committments and that’s put me off, to be honest. It’s in games like these that you need your leaders so I’m not convinced that they’ll get the result that they seek here. However, they welcome back rapid attacker Henrique Silva after his five-week absence, which bolsters their already potent attack so hosts Adelaide may well be shaking in the boots after some very unconvincing defensive displays of late. Let’s face it – Brisbane Roar are still massively in-form somehow and the fact that they’ve only lost once in twenty-three games illustrates that point perfectly. Four out of their last seven away games have gone over 2.5 goals due to their own lethal finishers (Barbarouses, Reinaldo, and Solorzano respectively) and with the visitors having already won fifty percent of their away games this season, it’s more than apparent just how able this Brisbane side truly is.
Bluntly, I’m expecting a very good game between what is currently the best two sides in Australia. Brisbane Roar play a more open attacking game than Adelaide United but with the hosts leaking stupid goals lately, they’re more than likely going to be encouraged to come out of their shells to attack their opponents to get a result so we should see a fairly open game here. This game doesn’t have a tendency to go over 2.5 goals, unfortunately, but I’d counter that with the fact that neither of these two sides are usually playing as well as they are now. Therefore, my call for this game is for there to be over 2.5 goals, especially given the magnitude of the game in the A-League standings.
Team news – Adelaide miss Mullen, Leckie, and Costa whereas Brisbane miss McKay.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Rangers vs Celtic – home win at evens.
For the first time in a while, I’m going to get involved in the Glasgow derby between Rangers and Celtic because I feel the odds on the home win are rather generous.
Rangers welcome back Lafferty and are hopeful that Naismith will return for the Old Firm derby too but to be honest, with Kenny Miller in such good goalscoring form, I don’t think either are particularly necessary although options are always welcome for every manager! On-loan Slovakian winger Weiss is finally beginning to show the maturity and experience that he needs to succeed and is finally looking like the talented winger that we all knew he could be. It’ll be interesting to see if Manchester City play him when he returns there next season as they really should give him a try – he’s definitely earned that chance, in my opinion. You could have been forgiven for thinking that Rangers may have been a tad rusty after two weeks without a competitive game of football, as indeed I did, prior to their tricky trip to Motherwell. However, they showed no signs of being rusty whatsoever, drubbing Motherwell 1-4 in impressive fashion. Now they welcome bitter rivals Celtic to Ibrox in hope of making it four consecutive home wins against the Hoops and to be honest, they’re extremely well-placed to do so.
All may not be rosy at Ibrox but Rangers are certainly a lot better off than Neil Lennon’s Celtic side. Celtic have been dismal in recent times and have been beyond fortunate to win the last couple of games. Celtic have actually played five home games in a row ahead of this away game – which is their first away game since mid-November, incidentally – and have only won twice, which is a scandalous record when you consider that Celtic are supposedly one of the top two sides in Scotland but haven’t even faced Rangers during that run and yet have still failed more than they’ve succeeded. I understand that a big side cannot win every game but to not beat Dundee United, Inverness Caledonian Thistle, and Kilmarnock at home in three successive home games is an absolute joke. They managed to beat St.Johnstone 2-0 at home recently and I’ve no idea how they managed that with two very late goals bailing them out and then somehow battled to a 1-0 win against managerless Motherwell, barely deserving that victory too. Celtic are “cruising for a bruising”, to add a bit of slang to the preview! They’re not playing well and I personally feel that if Celtic lose this game then they could say goodbye to Neil Lennon because statistically speaking, they’re still in the title race but if they continue playing as they are then they’re not going to be in it by the time February comes around. Celtic may use this game to hide that fact behind if they do sack him but I think Lennon is under real pressure here.
Amusingly, Celtic boss Neil Lennon had these comforting words for Celtic fans ahead of this massive game (which they’re not playing well enough to win, currently!) – “We’re not going to defend for 90 minutes because I don’t think we can do that that well”. Neil – what makes you think that you can attack well?! I certainly don’t; not based on their recent displays. There’s a chance that lanky Samaras can return for Celtic today but there’s more problems behind the scenes here than one man’s return can resolve, in my view. Celtic have signed ex-Arsenal winger Ljungberg in a desperate bid to improve their ailing attack and to their credit, he’ll probably do quite well here. I still don’t think it’ll resolve the problem, though – the problem is Lennon!
Crucially, Celtic miss holding midfielder Brown for this game. The lunatic got a second bookable offence at the end of Celtic’s win over Motherwell and although Lennon has ranted about how he didn’t deserve the red card, I still think that was covering up for the fac that he knows Celtic are really going to struggle without him in this derby. For me, in-form Rangers beating Celtic in front of their own fans whilst their opponents flounder in front of goal is something that really should occur here. Celtic without Brown lessens their defensive ability as a unit and given that half of the Scottish Premier League have scored more away goals than Celtic have this season, I really don’t rate their chances here. For me, this game has a home win written all over it so that’s my call as it’s generously priced at evens.
Team news – Rangers have doubts over Naismith whereas Celtic miss Brown, Kapo, and Murphy for this game.
Verdict: Rangers to win at evens.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Deportivo La Coruna – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’m a massive fan of Athletic Club de Bilbao but they’re simply priced too short here. Before the winter break fortuitously came alone, Los Leones were looking tired and stretched. Youngster Iker Muniain is beginning to find weekly football tough as he’s still a kid and the pressure on Javi Martinez as the club’s only genuine playmaker following Yeste’s exit in summer is starting to take its toll with Martinez looking a bit jaded. Primera Liga-wise, Bilbao have won two consecutive games although I’m not sure how they won either, trailing Espanyol for the majority of their home game and being outplayed and outfought by Levante in the away game. I suppose you have to credit Athletic’s battling spirit and ability to put the ball in the net but they’re not playing well and to be honest, if you take them to win at these odds then you’re a clown! Let’s not forget that Bilbao have a massive game in a few days against bitter rivals Barcelona in the Copa del Rey after they claimed a vital 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp in the first leg and make no mistake here – Bilbao will prioritise the cup over this game because they love the cup and they hate Barcelona. Therefore, expect Amorebieta, San Jose, and Llorente to miss either part or all of those game as all three have been injured lately and will most likely not be risked here. I don’t envision Caparros allowing little Muniain to play ninety minutes as I don’t think he’ll have the stamina to cope although he’ll undoubtedly want to play every minute of each game, such is his desire to play football. In short – I expect fringe players to be the majority of this Bilbao team today and their fringe players obviously aren’t as good as the regular starters so I think we could see a rather open game here aas I don’t see Bilbao dominating like they usually would at San Mames.
Unfortunately, Deportivo aren’t a particularly good away side and have proven so on numerous occasions over the years. Nonetheless, Basque-born manager Lotina will be keen to do well in this one as Athletic are the Basque club to beat so Lotina will have his players motivated here. Despite also having a Copa del Rey game next week, Deportivo should pay more attention to this game as they prioritise staying in the division over the cup and understandably so after their dismal start to the Primera Liga campaign. They welcome back more players from injury for this game and as a result, they only miss Guardado and Riki from the starting eleven, the latter of which has been out for the majority of the season anyway. Depor are getting stronger and stronger and although I don’t rate them away from home, they do tend to play very well at San Mames, hence having lost just once here in their last six visits, winning three times along the way – they’re one of only a few clubs that boast such a strong record here! It’s a shame that Riki’s comeback against Cordoba a couple of weeks ago has left him injured again as Depor really miss him but they should still be able to fashion a goal here today, especially as Bilbao are likely to rest at least one defender here.
Rather than enter a rather complex 1×2 market between these two battling sides, I’m opting for both sides to score as it’s priced quite generously at 4/5. Both sides have scored in this fixture at San Mames in four out of the last six meetings and I think we’ll see another case of that today. This game should mean more to Depor than Bilbao and if the visitors take their chances then I expect this bet to come in as Bilbao really should score in front of their own fans – they almost always do!
Team news – Athletic have doubts over Amorebieta, San Jose, and Llorente whereas Deportivo miss Guardado, Riki, Michel, Ze Castro, Seoane, and Urreta.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Barcelona vs Levante – Levante to score a goal at 5/4.
This is a very cheeky bet, especially considering how well Barcelona were playing prior to the winter break. However, the news that they’re missing both central defenders Pique and Puyol means that only fit-again Milito is their only recognised centre-back available for this game. Well, I say “fit-again” – I don’t think he’s been fit in years – he’s always had injury problems. We also have to bear in mind that Barcelona have a big game with Athletic in a few days time and much like their Basque hosts in that game, the Catalonians will prioritise that fixture over this one, which probably explains the rumours that Messi will be absent here. I still think that Barcelona will field a side strong enough to win the game with some ease but I also think Levante can score here. Caicedo is back from his injury and with seven goals in twelve games, the Ecuadorian striker is very much in-form at the moment so I think they can nick a goal here. Indeed, Levante usually do away from home, having failed to score just once away from home in eight Primera Liga away games this season. Therefore, I think it’s worth a cheeky bet on Levante to score a goal in this game at 5/4!
Team news – Barcelona miss Puyol and Pique whereas Levante miss Javi Venta.
Verdict: Levante to score a goal at 5/4.
Sevilla CF vs Osasuna – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This one speaks for itself for anyone who has watched Sevilla games lately! Manzano has fucked up their defence royally and they miss Dragutinovic more than ever. The only way this side wins games is if they score a lot of goals because they concede against anyone and everyone, as a 1-3 defeat at home to Almeria in their last Primera Liga home game and a 5-3 win against Malaga in the Copa del Rey in their last home game indicates all too well. Five out of Sevilla’s last six Primera Liga home games have gone over 2.5 goals due to their apparent inability to defend and although Jesus Navas is fit again to boost their squad in attack, their defence still needs a lot of work – well, either that or they need a new manager! There can be no doubting Sevilla’s ability as a goalscoring side but their defence is shambolic and even goal-shy Osasuna are capable of scoring here, in my view, especially if Almeria can bag three here! Remarkably, Osasuna bagged three times in their last away game, drawing three times at the Mestalla against Valencia CF, so they’ll bring some confidence into this game despite that game being played back in mid-December. Osasuna don’t have Copa del Rey committments so they’ll field a full-strength side here and if they take their chances against Sevilla’s woeful defence then this game should easily go over 2.5 goals. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals here as it’s rather generously priced at 4/5, even with Osasuna rarely contributing on the goalscoring front away from home.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Girona vs Cartagena – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
This is one of those games where you just need a bit of luck on your side because the bookies have priced it wrongly but you need both sides to do what they do best to make it come in.
You see, from a footballing perspective, these two sides play some of the best football in the division, especially when it comes to attacking. Neither are great in defence either, especially Girona, hence their league placing. However, both will attack freely and if they convert their respective chances then this game should easily clear over 2.5 goals.
Statistically speaking, Girona average scoring two goals per home game and conceding a goal per home game whereas Cartagena don’t contribute anywhere near as much to the over 2.5 goals call as they average scoring a goal per away game and conceding just over a goal per away game. However, I would point to those statistics being largely related to the atrocious start that Cartagena had to their Segunda Liga campaign rather than their “recent” displays. Since they found their form back in November, Cartagena have not only won four out of their five games but three out of their five games have gone over 2.5 goals as they push on to boost their league placing. In their last game before the winter break, Cartegena beat Las Palmas 5-2 so you can see where they should be at currently.
Therefore, my call for this game is over 2.5 goals today. I expect a pretty good game here too so if you get chance then I would encourage watching it too as both sides should show up and play their usual respective attacking games!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Port Talbot Town vs Neath Athletic – away win at 11/10.
Port Talbot are a funny side! They can hold a lead but they absolutely cannot come from behind for shit! They’ve not come from behind to win any of their home games this season. In fact, they’ve fallen behind five times at home, losing three times and drawing the other two. However, when they take the lead, they tend to win, hence their three wins this season all coming when they’ve taken the lead. The only time they’ve let a lead slip was against a vastly superior Bangor City, in which they lost 1-2. Just to give you guys an idea about Port Talbot!
Most sides have scored more goals at home than Port Talbot because the hosts are a rather defensive side. As I mentioned in the above paragraph, they can hold a lead rather well but if they fall behind then they have to come out of their shell and they usually concede at least another goal. This makes Port Talbot a rather useful side to bet on (or against) depending on the opponent!
Happily, they’re facing a side today that they really should fall behind against – Neath Athletic. Port Talbot have a remarkably good head-to-head record against Neath Athletic but Neath Athletic have something in their arsenal now that they’ve not had for their other encounters with Port Talbot – the one and only Lee Trundle! This guy has single-handedly dragged Neath into vaguely competing for the top spot in the Welsh Premier League by bagging eight goals in thirteen games and it’s his presence that has made Neath into a goal machine this season. He’s had assistance from Jones, Hughes, and Bond but the ex-Swansea hitman is the top dog here and they know it – his mere presence is doing Neath a lot of good, let alone his goals tally!
The above is why only Bangor City and The New Saints have scored more goals than Neath Athletic this season and why it’s likely to remain that way too. No side has scored as many as Neath have on the road in the Welsh Premier League this season with an average of over two goals scored per away game and although they enjoy conceding goals too, they remain a very potent side away from home. They’ve won four away games from nine this season, which isn’t a great record but they should still have enough to win this game today.
I’d hesitate before saying that Neath are a vastly better than Port Talbot because I don’t believe that they are. However, I do think that they are better than Port Talbot and their cutting edge in front of goal gives them a massive advantage so I really fancy Neath to win this one today, especially at generous odds of 11/10!
Side-bet – Got a spare bit of money lying around? Why not give a thought to Neath -1.5 at a very generous 11/4? Whenever Port Talbot have conceded a goal in the Premier League this season, they’ve followed it up by conceding at least one more goal as they’re shit when they come out of their shells. Neath aren’t great defensively but they’re capable of scoring two or three here! Just a thought…
Verdict: Neath Athletic to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Barcelona, Real Betis Balompie.
Recommended bets:
Barcelona, Granada, and Rangers at 4/1.
Neath Athletic, Melbourne Heart, and Real Betis Balompie at 4/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendlies:
Iraq vs China (6) 0-0
United Arab Emirates vs Syria (7) 2-0
Jordan vs Uzbekistan (5) 1-1
Iran vs Angola (7) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs North Queensland Fury (6) 2-1
Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Aston Villa (7) 2-0
Wigan Athletic vs Newcastle United (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Celtic (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) 2-1
Barcelona vs Levante (8) -1.5 handicap
Sporting Gijon vs Malaga (6) 1-1
Sevilla CF vs Osasuna (5) over 2.5 goals
Valencia CF vs Espanyol (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Granada vs Alcorcon (7)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Celta de Vigo (5) under 2.5 goals
Real Betis Balompie vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (8)
Villarreal II vs Elche (6)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Huesca (6) under 2.5 goals
Real Valladolid vs Tenerife (5)
Albacete vs Cordoba (7)
Ponferradina vs Numancia (6)
Las Palmas vs Barcelona II (5)
Girona vs Cartagena (4) over 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Airbus UK (6) 1-1
Port Talbot Town vs Neath Athletic (6) over 2.5 goals
Prestatyn Town vs Bangor City (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!