Guarani Asuncion vs Estudiantes De La Plata
FreeFor membership details, go here.
Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Paraguay between Guarani Asuncion and Argentinian side Estudiantes De La Plata. Both sides are familiar names on the South American circuit so I don’t expect any cricket score game ala the other game in Paraguay this week between Libertad Asuncion and Universidad San Martin last night!
Let’s be realistic here though – Guarani Asuncion are not having a great campaign yet. They’re looking shaky at the back and they’re not convincing at all in front of goal at the moment. They shipped four goals at Olimpia Asuncion in one of the big Asuncion derbies last match and shipped four in Brazil against Cruzeiro in their last Copa Libertadores game so confidence can’t be great currently. Unfortunately for Guarani, their record on the continent isn’t great either at home or away so they’re unlikely to find any salvation of their form here. Indeed, the only side that they’ve beaten during their last ten continental games was River Plate Montevideo in a 2-0 win the Copa Sudamericana so they’re not awe-inspiring, even on their own turf. Guarani tend to have the ability to find the net in their home games but they also have an uncanny ability to ship goals, a record which has led to them losing three out of their last four Copa Libertadores home games. The reasoning behind Guarani’s unconvincing displays, in my view, is a lack of experience on a grandiose scale and a lack of ability outside of Paraguay. They might have had a better chance in this game had they not been so foolhardy during the transfer window but they ploughed ahead nonetheless and sold star Brazilian striker Rodrigo Teixeira to Barcelona Guayaquil in Ecuador and essential attacking midfielder Fabbro to bitter rivals Cerro Porteno, two transfer which are probably going to cost them their continental place in the forthcoming Copa Sudamericana if things continue as they are. Guarani’s defence isn’t very good, as I’ve mentioned earlier, but with those two key attacking players having moved on from the Paraguayan hosts’ in the transfer window, I find their chances of them beating a superior Estudiantes side tonight rather slim.
Don’t get me wrong here – Estudiantes aren’t firing on all cylinders either so I wouldn’t go crazy with this tip. They’ve impressively managed to battle along quite nicely lately despite the bizarre departure of boss Sabella at the start of their domestic campaign and despite the fact that they’re playing in different stadiums most of the time so full credit goes to Estudiantes there. The 5-0 defeat in Brazil against Cruzeiro demonstrated that Estudiantes aren’t yet the same team that they were last year as ex-River Plate defender Berizzo looks to get his feet under the table at the club. However, his defensive intelligence has shown as despite Estudiantes being in something of a transitional period, they’ve still adopted their manager’s battling style and keep more clean sheets than most South American sides do. Just look at how well they’ve actually done lately, considering the turmoil that they’ve been in – they faced Quilmes “away”, with whom they’re sharing their stadium for a season – Estudiantes won 0-1. They faced a patient Deportes Tolima in the stadium of De La Plata, the first time they’ve used it in a long time – they won 1-0. They played the De La Plata derby at Gimnasia last match – they won 0-2. You can see the pattern emerging here – Estudiantes keep clean sheets and due to having playmaker Veron controlling the game in the middle of the park, they tend to fashion a few chances, score them, and win the game. It all sounds very easy and Estudiantes make it look so, despite it being rather difficult, so again, credit must go to Estudiantes here.
Do Estudiantes have what it takes to win this game? I’d say so. Paraguay isn’t a formidable away game for any side – there are no geographical advantages here and their sides are not particularly good nowadays. Estudiantes need to adjust to their new manager Berizzo’s tactics and that could take some time as a whole but for the present time, they look good. Estudiantes need the creativity of Veron and Barrientos to win games like this, as well as the finesse of the pacey Fernandez in attack, but as long as they have those assets then Estudiantes should really win this game. Odds of 5/6 away from home in this tournament are rarely good odds but I can see some value in the selection with the above in mind although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at 5/6.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Tottenham Hotspur vs AC Milan – home win with -1.5 handicap at 3/1.
I like this call far, far more than I probably should but I’m going to ride it, despite odds of 6/5 on a Spurs outright win looking good value too.
Why am I going for such an outlandish bet? One word; midfield. AC Milan didn’t dominate the midfield game in the first leg in the San Siro and it cost them the game as Spurs played on the counter-attack and took their chances. Every time Lennon broke forward down the flank, Spurs looked likely to score although the frustrating winger managed to misplace a good number of crosses. However, Welsh winger Bale should return for this game and if they have both of them running down the flanks then an AC Milan side that must attack here will have a great deal of problems as they hate trying to contain pace – it’s something they’re generally not very good at.
The other part of the midfield battle is of course in the middle. Generally, you’d have either Gattuso or Ambrosini protecting their centre-backs, or even new signing Van Bommel. However, all three of those players miss this game tonight and that’s suicide against a midfield-driven side like Spurs as only Flamini remains in the middle of the park do to a very important job in this game. If Spurs play their quickest midfielders then I can see them running riot here because I can’t see how AC Milan will prevent them from doing so. It’s very good to point out AC Milan’s classy attackers such as Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and the tempremental Pato, but they’ve got to get the ball first and I’m not sure Redknapp’s team will allow them to do that here.
I’ve seen people posting thoughts on Spurs sitting back and containing AC Milan tonight and I just think to myself “Eh?”. Redknapp’s side is not good at conserving leads because their strength is attacking so I’ll be very surprised if that isn’t what they do here. They’ve not managed to that well in any of their Champions League games thus far, hence Spurs continuing to attack in each game and being one of the leading goalscoring sides in the tournament as a result.
Supposing that AC Milan do manage to somehow contain a Spurs midfield that few other sides have managed to contain so far this season – who is going to do the playmaking? Pirlo is absent for this game, which leaves another gaping hole in Milan’s midfield. I simply cannot envision a scenario where this game ends favourably for AC Milan and although it’s a bold thing to say about such a talented side, I’ll be amazed if AC Milan get anything here.
I feel that the odds of a Spurs handicap at 3/1 are too long here, to be blunt. This game can go two ways, in my mind – either AC Milan will play it safe in the first-half, get to half-time at 0-0, and attack in the second-half whilst conceding goals against the lightning pace of Spurs’ counter-attacks or Spurs will attack from the word “go” and rip AC Milan apart with their pace, scoring a lot of goals in the process. I’m open to being proven wrong but I can’t see anything but one of those two scenarios here. Therefore, taking Spurs to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 3/1 really appeals to me so that’s my call for this game tonight.
Team news – Tottenham Hotspur have doubts over Bale and Van der Vaart whereas AC Milan miss Gattuso, Pirlo, Ambrosini, Cassano, Van Bommel, and Inzaghi whilst having doubts over Boateng.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 3/1.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Accumulator fodder:
Deportivo Quito, Partizan Belgrade, Rad Belgrade, Red Star Belgrade.
Recommended bets:
Estudiantes De La Plata and Deportivo Quito at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Tottenham Hotspur vs AC Milan (7) -1.5 handicap
Schalke 04 vs Valencia CF (4) 1-2
Copa Libertadores:
Oriente Petrolero vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (4) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Penarol vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-1
Universidad Catolica vs Caracas (5) 0-0
Guarani Asuncion vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 0-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Wacker Innsbruck (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Imbabura (6) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Independiente (6) 1-0
Deportivo Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-1
LDU Loja vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) under 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Everton vs Birmingham City (6) 1-0
Finnish Liiga Cup:
KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa (7) 2-1
Tampere United vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 1-1
Greek Super League:
PAOK Salonika vs Ergotelis (5) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs 3 de Febrero (6) 2-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Sol de America (4) 1-0
Serbian Super Liga:
Smederevo vs Jagodina (6) 0-0
Borac Cacak vs Cukaricki (7) 1-0
Hajduk Kula vs Partizan Belgrade (8) 0-2
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs BSK Borca (7) 1-0
Rad Belgrade vs Metalac GM (8) 2-0
Spartak Subotica vs Javor Ivanjica (6) 1-0
OFK Belgrade vs Sevojno (5) 1-2
Red Star Belgrade vs Indija (8) -1.5 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!