Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Honka Espoo
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Finnish Veikkausliiga encounter between Haka Valkeakoski and FC Honka Espoo. Although not many people seem to know it – based on the odds – there’s worlds of difference between these two sides and it should show today.
Haka were a good side that were going places with hefty financial backing last season. However, that financial backing was removed and all their good players were sold. I wish I was exaggerating but they literally don’t have any good players any longer. What they do have is hard workers and a great man-motivator in Sami Ristila so they’re not a side to write off immediately. However, if a good side turns it on against them, you can generally expect them to lose.
Haka lost their last game 4-2 at in-form JJK Jyvaskyla. It was an interesting game in the sense that it shouldn’t have had anywhere near as many goals as it did but it happened because Haka forgot how to defend in the first-half and were duly punished by a ravenous JJK attack. If Haka defend well, then it’ll take something special to score against them ala the exquisite finish from Tommi Kari in the game against JJK Jyvaskyla. However, Haka defended so badly that a man with no legs wouldn’t have had many problems in that game. It was a fairly uncharacteristic display from Haka, however, and that’s extremely visual from the fact that they not only scored in that game but scored twice! In fact, what’s even more puzzling was that neither was from a set piece! No, one was a wonder strike from Irish midfielder Shane Robinson – the second time he’s produced a superb finish in the Veikkausliiga this season – and the other was from Pekka Sihvola, who was almost embarrassed to score such an easy goal as the ball was hammered at his own goalkeeper by a retreating defender with Sihvola scoring the rebound. In a loose way, that really does sum Haka’s goal threat up quite well – a piece of magic, stupid defending, or set pieces. Magic is few and far between in this team so it’s the latter two options that tend to give Haka their opportunities to score goals – it’ll rarely be anything else.
Unfortunately, Honka are the kind of side that defend badly enough to give them those chances. I’ll never quite understand how Honka can attack so well and defend so badly on such a consistent basis but whatever – that’s just how they play, I suppose! They have a very youthful team, which doesn’t help them on the composure front. Nonetheless, irrespective of their age, they have one of the most deadly attacks in Finland with skilful Demba Savage and powerful Dudu up front, not to mention ex-Manchester United academy boy Puustinen. They do lack something in their team in the form of experience but if your side scores a lot of goals then it doesn’t tend to matter, which is largely what this bet hinges upon.
Honka’s results haven’t really told the full story thus far. Their 0-0 draw at home to JJK Jyvaskyla should have been 3-3 but goalkeeping heroics made it not so. Their 4-0 defeat at Inter Turku was really very harsh although it’s the sides that score goals that win games and we do have to point out the poor defending that led to Honka having Aalto dismissed in the first minute of the game as he clumsily clattered into one of the Inter Turku players. Since then, Honka have actually started taking their chances again, winning 0-1 at MyPa Anjalankoski and 1-0 against RoPS Rovaniemi. The 0-1 win at MyPa was exactly as you’d expect it – few chances on a bumpy pitch but all of them going to Honka and they eventually took one mid-way through the second-half. The 1-0 win against RoPS Rovaniemi was a bit of a joke, really – Honka played them off the park and wasted a host of good chances, striking the bar when it was easier to score in one of them. Honka’s firepower is finally beginning to show again and a tad more form in their last game would have turned it into a rout, in my view.
Therefore, we have one side that is battling against the drop and another that is easing into their stride. Make no mistake – Honka will be in the top three at the end of the season and I don’t think Haka have the capacity to stop them here. I expect a similar game to the MyPa vs Honka game from a couple of weeks ago with Honka claiming a scrappy win here. Either way, odds of 9/10 on the away interest me as I don’t see Haka being able to score enough to get anything off Honka here.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 9/10.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Heracles Almelo vs Groningen – home win at evens.
Heracles Almelo interest me a lot here but not nearly as much as they interest me in the battle for the UEFA Europa League place overall. Unlike their rivals, Heracles have only woken up in the second-half of the season and they’re still riding the crest of a wave as far as momentum goes as a result whilst sides like ADO Den Haag and even Groningen are floundering a bit.
For me, that’s a good enough foundation here but let’s look more closely at Heracles. Traditionally, they’re a strong home side due to their artificial turf and ability to score goals. A large portion of this team has played together for some time, hence their strong cohesion, which makes them harder to play against. Everton and Overtoom are consistent performers in attack, usually bagging at least ten each per season, especially Everton. Last season, Dost joined in a lot but Heerenveen signed him in summer and subsequently, Swedish youngster Armentaros has stepped up to the plate. I admire that about Heracles – nobody is irreplaceable. If they have a flaw then it’s perhaps being a bit slow in defence but their firepower more than makes up for it, in my eyes.
Consider that only two sides have won at Heracles this season and those two sides are PSV Eindhoven and AFC Ajax Amsterdam respectively and you’ll get an idea of how strong Heracles are. I think that’s even more impressive than it looks considering how dire Heracles were performing in the earlier stages of their Eredivisie campaign. They’ve been absolutely immense since the turn of February, however, winning six out of seven home games, losing the other game 0-2 against PSV Eindhoven. They’ve scored twenty goals in those six games and conceded just four despite facing some capable sides along the way ala Heerenveen, Vitesse Arnhem, and UEFA Europa League rivals ADO Den Haag and Roda JC Kerkrade. For me, Heracles must be taken seriously here – they’re not showing sides of fatigue, unlike other sides, and they’re always strong at home – why not again today?
Visitors Groningen are a very interesting side. They’re utterly dominant at home, much like their hosts, but struggle a lot away from home. They score a lot of goals away from home but poor defending tends to cost them big time. They’ve lost four out of their last six away games, which takes their tally to eight defeats on the road in the Eredivisie this season. It’s not a bad record, I suppose you could say, but the fact that they average conceding nearly two goals per away game has to be a point of concern for Groningen. In Slovenian striker Tim Matavz, they have one of the most promising strikers in the Eredivisie and he’ll be a constant threat tonight. They do have other decent attackers but the Slovenian hitman stands head-and-shoulders above the others, in my view. Groningen rely a lot on their support from midfield with the likes of Enevoldsen, Sparv, and Andersson duly obliging. Defensively, they tend to keep the same back four, which you’d think would help but their all out attack tactics tend to harm them at the back. That back four will be a least partially broken up in summer, however, with Swedish full-back Stenman having already agreed a move to Belgian giants Club Brugge. What Groningen will do after that remains to be seen but even with their defence entact, I just don’t see them getting anything here.
Heracles haven’t lost in their last three home games at the Polman against Groningen, winning their last two consecutively. Heracles even won 1-4 at Groningen earlier this season in a very much shock win as Groningen are incredibly strong at home. These two sides tend to score a lot of goals against each other and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that occur tonight but given the recent form of Heracles and the consistent ability that Groningen have to concede goals on the road, I think that the home win represents value at evens.
Verdict: Heracles Almelo to win at evens.
Sogndal vs Lillestrom – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I feel quite sorry for Sogndal, sat at the bottom of the Eliteserien table! They’re there because they can’t score goals – they average scoring less than a goal per every two games currently. However, their defensive record is bettered only by Fredrikstad and league leaders Tromso so this side isn’t one to be taken lightly. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four Eliteserien games, scoring once and conceding once during that four-game run. The introduction of Eirik Bakke into midfield has added some much needed experience to their game although new striker Hansen, also signed from Brann Bergen, is not having the same impact with no goals scored in seven games. As a unit, Sogndal perform well and are easy for no side to overcome. In terms of depth and attacking quality, however, there’s a very good chance that this side will be battling relegation at the end of the season. Importantly, they miss midfield engine Kader for this game, which doesn’t help their plight, but they should still be secure at the back.
Visitors Lillestrom are a bit of a funny side, really. Henning Berg’s boys drift between being outrageously good in front of goal and being non-existant tactically in a rather frustrating manner. This side are the leading goalscorers on the road in the Eliteserien thanks to their bizarre 0-7 win at Stabaek on the opening day of the season and their strange 3-3 draw at the Lerkendal against Rosenborg BK in their following away game. Since then, they’ve settled down a bit in their away games into a run that makes a lot more sense, drawing 1-1 at Valerenga Oslo and Fredrikstad respectively. Nigerian hitman Ujah is proving to be a roaring success in the Eliteserien with eight goals in seven games, as is his fellow countryman Igiebor in midfield, both of which have improved even moreso from last season’s excellent showing. Defensively, Lillestrom can be caught out, more often than not by pace with ex-Liverpool defender Kippe at the back not being the quickest of defenders! That said, his boss wasn’t a particularly quick defender either but he was still a very good tackler. Either way, I don’t see enough firepower in the Sogndal ranks to trouble Lillestrom unduly today.
I expect this to be one of Lillestrom’s more tactical games this season. Sometimes they’ll just go gung-ho but I don’t think that’ll do much against a strong Sogndal defence. No, both sides need to be smarter here to win this one and I’m not sure either of them are capable of it. Lillestrom have better players and more individual talent when it comes to winning the game but I just can’t see many goals here so my call is under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Team news – Sogndal miss Rudolfsen and Kader.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Tromso vs Viking Stavanger – home win at 4/5.
A lot of people call the Gutan a lucky team but I’m not so sure I agree with that tag. I’d argue that any side needs luck to win a football game but Tromso are simply very efficient in front of goal. I’d agree with the sentiments that they don’t create enough chances in general, to be sure, but I cannot help admiring how ruthless they are when they do get a chance. Tromso have won three out of four at the Alfheim this season already, drawing the other game whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game. Admittedly, they’ve not faced the likes of Rosenborg BK at home yet but if their home record thus far is based entirely on luck then I’d love to see what they do when they’re playing well! Mostafa Abdealloue has proven to be a useful signing in midfield from Valerenga Oslo and although Tromso do look lost without veteran target man Rushfeldt in attack, he’s happily still in the team and producing the goods so that’s not a concern today! The Alfheim’s artificial turf has felled many good teams, as has the “luck” of Tromso, but whatever it is, I can only back the home team here.
Viking Stavanger are a good side, especially with ex-Manchester United striker Nevland leading the line. The problem is that aside from him, only hot prospect Berisha provides any kind of goal threat with Saeternes looking well past his best. Icelandic winger Bjarnason does his best but there’s not a lot of options for him in attack and subsequently, Viking Stavanger fail to score goals on a fairly regular basis. They’ve scored one goal over three Eliteserien away games this season and although they don’t concede many, when they do concede, it tends to be quite fatal due to their lack of alternatives in attack. Viking have gone on a four-game unbeaten run lately so momentum is good as they enter this game. However, only two of those games resulted in wins and both were against non-league opposition in the NM Cupen so let’s not read too much into it!
Viking lost on their visit to Tromso last season and I think they’ll do the same again today. This is their fourth game in ten days and considering that Tromso is the furthest trip north an Eliteserien side can make, I think they’re in for a rough ride here. Viking don’t have great strength in-depth and they’re not great in front of goal either. I therefore feel that the Gutan will defeat them at the Alfheim today – too many things favour the hosts and although I expect a fairly dour encounter, Tromso are very much “backable” at 4/5, although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Tromso to win at 4/5.
Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
The odds are long here for a reason so do approach with caution!
Nonetheless, I still really like this bet. Sarpsborg 08 have refused to be a nervous and defensive side since earning promotion to the Eliteserien, continually attacking and causing problems for all kinds of sides, especially when playing at home. Indeed, they average scoring two goals per home game currently and have won three out of three on their own turf. I don’t rate their attack as being particularly good with ex-Odd Grenland Skien frontman Wiig and experienced Hoas leading the line but hey, it’s working; who are we to criticise? Sarpsborg 08 do enjoy the support of their pacey full-backs too, which is a key part of their expansive game and they’ll look to stretch Aalesund today, especially on a grass pitch as Aalesund hate to play on natural grass usually. Sarpsborg have scored six goals and conceded eight over their past four games in the Eliteserien so you can see where the foundation for this bet comes from.
However, the missing piece of the jigsaw lies in Aalesund. I have to hand it to outspoken boss Rekdal – this guy could motivate a deaf team of players with no ability whatsoever into winning a game of football and I’ve no idea how he does it. Aalesund sold experienced target man Aaroy pre-season, which was a hefty blow for them as he was a pivotal part of their attack. Aside from him, they also parted with a good number of first-team regulars so the pre-season concensus was that Aalesund had a good chance of going down this season and who knows – maybe they still will. However, Rekdal has other ideas and he swiftly signed players that he believed could add to his team. Creative Jamaican midfielder Morrison was signed from Hungarian giants Ferencvaros and pacey Nigerian attacker Okoronkwo was signed from the now-defunct Russian side Saturn Moscow Oblast. Okoronkwo hasn’t done enough to impress Rekdal as of yet and it was enough for him to see his side for one competitive game this season to decide that they needed a new goalkeeper and a new target man. He subsequently signed Swedish goalkeeper Sandqvist the following day (to remind young Grytebust to continue to work hard or be replaced) and Estonian target man Post from Flora Tallinn. Post has been a fantastic signing for Aalesund as he continues to score and brings players into play and considering the pace that Aalesund have in their midfield supporting the Estonian, they’ve suddenly become a very good side again – all thanks to Rekdal and his wonderful ways! Aalesund have now gone seven games without defeat in all competitions and they’ve won their last five in a row. They’ve gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last four Eliteserien games as they continue to attack without fear but concede freely due to not signing adequate defensive replacements for the retired Fredrikson. Either way, Aalesund are a lot more entertaining than normal this year and given how well they’ve attacked of late, I think they’ll trouble their hosts significantly today.
Therefore, I think over 2.5 goals is absolutely worth a shot here. The odds are long as traditionally, neither of these two sides are notorious for being over 2.5 goals sides. However, recent form and the attacking ability of both sides in this situation looks strong enough for there to be goals here. Natural grass doesn’t suit Aalesund usually and that may go against them here but I still think the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Team news – Aalesund miss Herrera and Carlsen.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Molde FK vs Fredrikstad – home win at 4/5.
A lot of people are siding with Fredrikstad for this one and I’m not entirely sure why. I mean, Fredrikstad have absolutely impressed in the Eliteserien since being promoted from Divisjon 1 with the likes of Borges and Elyounoussi setting the division alight, not to mentioned youngsters Tveter and Jabbie. They’ve got a very good core, Fredrikstad – their players generally know one another well and work hard for each other. However, they can be undone in defence and that has been a constant factor in their displays lately. Fredrikstad have good firepower in their ranks but outscoring Molde FK is another matter entirely. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men have fought hard to get used to one another and their results have shown that transitional period quite well with bizarre results plaguing today’s hosts since the start of the campaign. However, there’s been a change in their style lately; there’s more cohesion in their team. Of course there can’t be 100% cohesion yet but they’ve looked a lot better lately, hence three Eliteserien wins from their past four games, losing the other game 0-2 against reigning champions Rosenborg BK. Molde enter this game on the back of a convincing 0-3 win at Lillestrom and have beaten rivals Brann Bergen and Stabaek prior to that so their momentum is good. Their defence still needs a lot of work but their attack looks very promising indeed with African youngsters Angan and Chima complimenting experienced Diouf and Thioune well. There’s a lot of creativity in midfield in old hands Hoseth and Berg Hestad, not to mention emerging midfielder Eikrem, so I think Molde have more than enough to trouble Fredrikstad today.
Expect plenty of goals in this one but having seen Fredrikstad implode at a fairly impotent Stabaek side in their last away game, I have to favour the hosts here. Backing both sides to score looks a good call too but for me, the value is in the home win at 4/5.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
HJK Helsinki, Atvidaberg.
Recommended bets:
FC Honka Espoo and HJK Helsinki at over evens.
Heracles Almelo and Atvidaberg at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Universidad Catolica vs Penarol (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cerro Porteno vs Jaguares (6) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs AC Horsens (7) 1-0
FC Copenhagen vs Midtylland (6) 2-1
SonderjyskE vs Esbjerg (6) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Hobro (7)
English League One:
Peterborough United vs Milton Keynes Dons (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs Jaro Pietarsaari (8) 2-0
Inter Turku vs VPS Vaasa (7) 1-0
MyPa Anjalankoski vs RoPS Rovaniemi (7) 0-0
Haka Valkeakoski vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 0-1
German Bundesliga Play-Off:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs VfL Bochum (7) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Pumas UNAM (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo vs Groningen (7) 2-1
ADO Den Haag vs Roda JC Kerkrade (5) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sogndal vs Lillestrom (5) 1-1
Stromsgodset vs Brann Bergen (6) over 2.5 goals
Tromso vs Viking Stavanger (7) 1-0
Haugesund vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-0
Odd Grenland Skien vs Stabaek (6) 2-1
Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund (4) 1-2
Molde FK vs Fredrikstad (7) 2-0
Start Kristiansand vs Rosenborg BK (5) 1-2
Sinagporean S-League:
Hougang United vs Tampines Rovers (7) 0-2
Armed Forces vs Geylang United (7) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Qviding Goteborg vs Hammarby (7)
Vasteras vs GIF Sundsvall (4)
Brommapojkarna vs Osters (6)
Ljungskile vs Landskrona BoIS (5) both sides to score
Angelholm vs Degerfors (6)
Atvidaberg vs Varnamo (8)
Brage vs Assyriska Sodertalje (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!