Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt. Both sides are lingering just outside of the UEFA Europa League places but that doesn’t really reflect the quality differential between the two sides.
Hamburger SV have had a rather roller-coaster season with poor displays a-plenty, injured players all over the place, and a general lack of consistency. However, it’s a new year now and Hamburg are only really missing Mathijsen , Jarolim, and Guerrero that are of any significance to their team, in my view, so they should have some good times on the way soon enough. They impressively won 0-1 at Schalke 04 in their Bundesliga game last week so they do bring momentum into this game. The news about Ruud van Nistlelrooy’s potential move back to Real Madrid hasn’t sat well with Hamburg with the hosts tonight having reiterated their desire to keep the legendary Dutch striker. I don’t think we’ll see his game affected much, if at all – he’s just a natural born finisher and he’s currently someone that Hamburg can’t do without. They’ve been a tad lax defensively so far in the Bundesliga this season which is why they’ve only won 50% of their home games rather than the minimum of 75% that they should have. Nonetheless, they’re at home for this one and are pushing for a UEFA Europa League place, possibly even a UEFA Champions League place if they feel optimistic so motivation is strong here. I have my doubts over their defensive capabilities but few over their attacking capabilities so I’ll give them a chance here.
Eintracht Frankfurt are a side that I generally don’t like to bet against. They’re the atypical German side in that they’re hard to beat, they defend well, and take their chances. We all know that betting against German sides of this nature is suicidal so it’s taken something special for me to oppose them tonight. However, that something special is very important indeed, as I’m sure you’ll agree. I opposed Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend as Hannover 96 strolled to victory against them and this selection today follows on the same lines; absences. Eintracht Frankfurt are a good side but if they miss any of their starting eleven, they lack the depth to replace them with the same level of quality. Frankfurt’s biggest fear is losing defensive players because that is the most solid area of their team; all of their successes stem from their defensive ability. Well, just like last weekend, Frankfurt are missing many defenders yet again and that should really spell disaster here. For the trip to Hamburg, Frankfurt miss important defender Franz and back-up defenders Vasoski, Kraus, and Chris so this Frankfurt side virtually picks itself from a defensive perspective. Bajramovic is still out with long-term injury so that’s nothing new but his presence is still missed by Frankfurt. They’re also missing Schwegler in midfield, who is essential to their team, and Frankfurt rely far too heavily on the beast of striker that they have in Gekas to be a consistent threat in this game, in my opinion. Frankfurt do at least have Russ back in defence for this game but it’s small consolation for an injury-ravaged team. Frankfurt have lost three out of their last four visits to Hamburg and on the back of a crushing home defeat against Hannover 96, I think they may be on the receiving end of a heavy defeat again here.
Hamburg have generally been priced on name alone this season so they’ve been too short but I think that they’re a little long for this game, if anything. Hamburg aren’t particularly reliable at the best of times but Frankfurt are reliable and their team news says that they’re going to concede at least twice here, in my view. Therefore, the home win at 8/13 really appeals to me here so that’s my call in this one.
Team news – Hamburger SV miss Mickel, Benjamin, Besic, Diekmeier, Mathijsen, Sowah, Stepanek, Behrens, Castelen, Gross, Jansen, Jarolim, Guerrero, and Son whereas Eintracht Frankfurt miss Rossl, Chris, Kraus, Franz, Vasoski, Bajramovic, Schwegler, Steinhofer, Alvarez, and Tosun.
Verdict: Hamburger SV to win at 8/13.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Qatar vs Japan – over 2.5 goals at 13/10.
I find it hard to go in-depth on games like this but I’ll give it a whirl.
This is the first of the Asian Cup Quater-Finals and features hosts Qatar and one of the favourites – Japan. Japan have been a bit disappointing so far due to fairly poor preparation for the tournament, the absence of two key defenders from their Asian Cup squad and generally unconvincing displays. However, they’re still head-and-shoulders above Qatar and Qatar coach Metsu knows it all too well, admitting such in a recent interview in an attempt to take the pressure off his team. Qatar qualified for the latter stages of this competition after China suspiciously decided to field a second string against Qatar and unsurprisingly lost the game 2-0, which ultimately meant that Qatar qualified for the latter stages of the tournament that they’re hosting. Hmm. Anyway, Qatar should really be out of their depth against a superior Japanese side today. Coach Metsu likened Japan to the “Barcelona of Asia”, which is a bit far-fetched but they’re a good side nonetheless. The likes of Honda are too good for Qatar but Qatar have their own stars too with Fabio Cesar and Sebstian Soria keen to impress so a leaky Japanese defence may struggle here.
I’d have to side with a Japanese win here but given the displays that they’ve shown so far, I don’t see value in the odds on them beating the hosts. However, over 2.5 goals looks a tempting selection as all of Qatar’s games so far have involved at least two goals and two out of Japan’s three games have gone over 2.5 goals. Japan are poor defensively but Qatar really need to show up to bag their token goal and given the magnitude of the game, they really should do that. However, I expect plenty of Japanese goals today so my call here is over 2.5 goals at a pretty generous price.
Team news – Qatar miss Mohammed Kasoula and Hussein Yasser.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 13/10.
Uzbekistan vs Jordan – over 2.5 goals at 11/8.
I can’t quite fathom the odds on this selection. Ok, the Asian sides don’t tend to produce games with many goals in when the bigger sides lock horns but odds of such length would suggest that Jordan are a big side, which they’re not. They’ve done very well to qualify for the current stage but let’s face it – they’re here because Saudi Arabia didn’t bother showing up. Jordan are quite hard to beat but they’re not exactly talented. Uzebekistan, by contrast, are a very good attacking side and it’s easy to see from their record of two out of their three games thus far having gone over 2.5 goals. Uzbekistan aren’t great defensively so they’re more than capable of conceding against a Jordan side that has scored in every game thus far but they’re also very capable of scoring goals against their Middle Eastern opponents. Therefore, over 2.5 goals looks a decent call to me, especially as it’s priced far too long at 11/8.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/8.
Deportivo Xerez vs Elche – home win at 11/10.
I’ve leaned more towards quality and goalscoring here rather than statistics so do approach with caution.
However, Xerez are a goalscoring side (when Bermejo is on top form) and Elche are a defensive side. This should immediately indicate the type of game that we should be in for tonight i.e. one-way traffic. The only way I can see Xerez not winning this game is if Elche score first because they’re tight at the back. That said, Elche are one of the lowest goalscoring side in the Segunda Liga this season and no other side has scored less than they have away from home either so I don’t fancy their chances here. Defending is not Xerez’s strongpoint, admittedly, but I don’t fear Elche’s attack so I give the advantage to Xerez here. Can Xerez take the initiative and score the goals though? I think so – Elche are missing some important players here, especially in midfield where there’s no Mateo, no Generelo, and no engine Mubarak. They’re also missing Fernandes in defence and all in all, those are four pretty important losses for Elche. They’re a good unit but without those players, I don’t think that they have the quality to withstand the hosts tonight. Elche couldn’t even score at home to Granada last match o I don’t fancy their chances here. Xerez claimed a good draw at Celta de Vigo in their last game so they do have momentum here and I think that 11/10 on the home win reflects some decent value as a result.
Team news – Elche miss Vasco Fernandes, Samuel, Mubarak, Generelo, and Kike Mateo.
Verdict: Deportivo Xerez to win at 11/10.
Besiktas JK vs Bucaspor – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
The statistics for this game suggest that Bucaspor are capable of losing by such a margin but Besiktas aren’t capable of winning by it. However, transfers occurred during the last few weeks that make this Besiktas side very different from the one that played in the first-half of the Super Lig campaign.
Besiktas have now signed Hugo Almeida fom Werder Bremen and Simao from Atletico Madrid to compliment Quaresma, Nobre, and Bobo, which makes them arguably the most dangerous attacking side in Turkey currently. Bucaspor’s average of conceding nearly two goals per away game and scoring less than a goal per every two away games fits the bill perfectly here so I’m not concerned as long as Besiktas score early because Bucaspor are one of those sides that are very hard to break down the longer you leave it. If you score early then they’re forced to abandon their defensive stance and they tend to get battered. They’ve lost six out of nine away games in the Super Lig this season and five out of those six have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap so I think there’s a good chance that Besiktas can achieve it here. Besiktas’ attack should be immense if they all become acquainted quickly and so long as their defence doesn’t make any stupid mistakes then this should be a comfortable win for them.
Taking Besiktas HT/FT is another interesting one because for me, they have to score early to demoralise this Bucaspor side as they gain confidence from frustrating sides. However, evens on Besiktas winning this game by two goals or more really appeals to me because they’re playing a newly-promoted side that they’re frankly much better than and Besiktas have to make more use of their home games as not winning enough home games has been their Achilles heel so far this season. Therefore, my call is for Besiktas to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at evens although utilise some caution as it’s their first official game back after the winter break.
Team news – Besiktas JK miss Nihat, Ibrahim Uzulmez, and Ferrari.
Verdict: Besiktas JK to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Adelaide United, Besiktas JK.
Recommended bets:
Hamburger SV and Besiktas JK at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Qatar vs Japan (7) over 2.5 goals
Uzbekistan vs Jordan (6) over 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs North Queensland Fury (8) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AS Eupen vs Club Brugge (6) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Southend United vs Bury (4)
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn vs Augsburg (3) draw no bet
Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg (6) both sides to score
Osnabruck vs 1860 Munich (6) both sides to score
Italian Serie B:
Livorno vs Albinoleffe (6) under 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Atlas (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen (3) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RBC Roosendaal vs Volendam (6) over 2.5 goals
Eindhoven vs Telstar (7) over 2.5 goals
Almere City vs RKC Waalwijk (7) over 2.5 goals
Zwolle vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7)
Den Bosch vs Veendam (6)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Fortuna Sittard (4) draw no bet
MVV Maastricht vs Go Ahead Eagles (4) draw no bet
Emmen vs Sparta Rotterdam (5)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Elche (6) under 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK vs Bucaspor (8) -1.5 handicap
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Aberystwyth Town (4) 1-2
Haverfordwest County vs Port Talbot Town (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Newtown vs Airbus UK (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!