HiFK Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Ykkonen clash between newly-promoted HiFK Helsinki and a KooTeePee Kotka side with rapidly-fading dreams of being promoted.
Atypically, my approach to HiFK Helsinki home games is “under 2.5 goals” because although their support is arguably the best in the Ykkonen, their team quality is not. In fact, they’re pretty average at best, to be honest. KooTeePee Kotka are a better side than them with plenty of ability, especially in defence. So why not under 2.5 goals here?
I did wonder why the odds were around 4/5 between two sides that love to go under 2.5 goals but therein I found my answer; HiFK Helsinki are missing approximately three-quarters of their defence today with Pyhala, Tanner, and Priha all out, which at least partially explains their massive amount of goals conceded lately. It’s going to take more than their fanatical support to get them anything from this game because defending is all that HiFK are good at, in my opinion. Worryingly, HiFK have lost their last five consecutive games, a run which includes two consecutive home defeats against a poor Hameenlinna and a decent OPS Oulu side. Morale is rock-bottom for the tenacious hosts and I can’t see that morale improving after such a difficult game today.
I don’t like backing KooTeePee Kotka away from home, as a rule. That’s largely because I associate them as a far more defensive side than attacking side, which is pretty much the only way they’ve played since the dawn of time. However, one thing I will say for today’s visitors is that if you give them a lead, they’ll generally hold it – their defence is rock-solid. The only side to prevent KooTeePee Kotka winning away from home this season after they’ve taken the lead was bizarrely FC Espoo, who scored a last-gasp equaliser back at the start of June and if I remember correctly, I believe it was a bit of a special strike from Rantanen. KooTeePee are like a dog with a bone when they score – impossible to play against.
The big question is whether KooTeePee will score the first goal, which is their eternal dilemma, really. Santala and especially Ikavalko are good strikers but I don’t feel that KooTeePee commit enough men forward to give them the support they need to be more consistent. However, with the vast majority of their hosts’ defence out today, I have to favour the away win at 11/10 because if KooTeePee can’t score today and hold it then they should just give up!
Team news – HiFK Helsinki miss Pyhala, Tanner, and Priha whilst having doubts over Tamminen.
Verdict: KooTeePee Kotka to win at 11/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs FC Brasov – home win at 6/5.
Approach this one with caution as it’s still early season in Romania but I still like this one quite a lot.
Pandurii have always been a good home side. It used to be because they were extremely defensive and nobody could break through but now Grigoras is at the helm, they tend to be more adventurous and it surprisingly suits them. They lost defender Matei pre-season to Steaua Bucharest but are otherwise pretty much exactly the same side as last year with a few low-cost additions. Pandurii are a side that plays with a lot of spirit and if you couple that with their adventurous attacking style, it tends to make them a dangerous home side. Poli Timisoara, Otelul Galati, Rapid Bucharest, and Vaslui are the only sides to win at Pandurii since February 2010 and it’s no coincidence that those sides are amongst the best in Romania. Pandurii have beaten Brasov in two out of their last three home games and Brasov haven’t scored on two of those visits. They’ve got some good players, Pandurii – Vranjes, Voiculet, Stromajer etc. and should have too much for Brasov today.
Amusingly, Brasov seem to have special powers of survival that I’ve never been able to comprehend. This side consistently loses players every year and yet still survives. I genuinely have no idea how they do it other than that they work very hard. However, they take the vast majority of their points at home – they’re usually pretty terrible away from home. They did beat Gaz Metan Medias 2-1 in their first game of the season but that was largely because of Gaz Metan Medias’ attention toward their game with Mainz 05 in the UEFA Europa League. They’ve won three out of their last sixteen away games in the Liga, two of which were against sides that finished below them, one of which was relegated. Pre-match, Brasov have stated that they’re coming to Pandurii to win. Well, I doubt that – I don’t think they’ve ever taken that approach away from home because they’re not very good at attacking but they’re pretty decent at defending so it’d make no sense for them to do it. Then again, this Brasov side has undergone a lot of changes pre-season, as per usual, and thus defending here may prove costly as there’s no way this defence has adapted to life without the departed Oros yet. Additionally, captain Ilyes, and midfielder da Silva Mendonca moved on too, damaging their midfield core immensely. Brasov have signed a lot of players pre-season but there’s no way they’ve galvanised just yet.
Therefore, the home win looks a shade long at 6/5 here. Pandurii are very strong as a unit and let’s not forget that it’s their first home game in about nine months due to issues with their stadium so it should be a sell-out today. For me, there’s value on Pandurii winning this one at 6/5, especially with hot prospect Alexandru Maxim having joined them from Espanyol.
Team news – Pandurii Targu Jiu miss Pleasca and Voiculet.
Verdict: Pandurii Targu Jiu to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
EB/Streymur, B36 Torshavn, Inter Turku, AC Oulu, Kalmar FF, GAIS Goteborg, Vaduz.
Recommended bets:
KooTeePee Kotka, B36 Torshavn, and GAIS Goteborg at just below 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Austrian Liga 1:
WAC/St.Andra vs Austria Lustenau (6)
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs Midtylland (6) 1-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B68 Toftir vs KI Klaksvik (5) 1-0
EB/Streymur vs IF Fuglafjordur (8) over 2.5 goals
B71 Sandur vs B36 Torshavn (8) 0-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs RoPS Rovaniemi (9) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu vs PoPa Pori (8)
HiFK Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs FC Brasov (7) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Amkar Perm’ (6) 0-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby Solvesborg (8) 2-0
GAIS Goteborg vs Halmstad (8) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Hammarby (4)
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Winterthur (8)
Enjoy your free betting tips!