HJK II vs OPS Oulu
FreeBefore today’s previewed game, please accept my apologies for the atrocity that has been the last couple of days betting-wise. I’d like to not pinpoint myself and blame it on bad luck but luck is circumstantial and I should be getting at least some of my chosen picks correct so I apologise.
My favoured game today is the Ykkonen clash between HJK II and OPS Oulu. HJK II have a habit of starting their season well in the Ykkonen and this season has been no exception so they’re worth your consideration in the earlier stages of the division. OPS Oulu are new to the division and their performances are reflecting that, which leaves them looking a tad vulnerable currently.
A HJK side today hosts an Oulu side for the second time in five days with today’s hosts’ parent club HJK Helsinki having hosted the more illustrious neighbours of today’s opponents (AC Oulu) in which there was a comfortable home win, something I expect to be emulated by their junior side today. As I touched upon briefly before, HJK II often start their campaigns well and as they’re currently atop of the Ykkonen, it’s fair to say that they’re emulating that statistic this season. They’re unbeaten in four games, winning two out of their three home games and drawing their sole away game. HJK II aren’t one of the best sides in the division but they’re usually a comfortable mid-table side. Last season, they notched up an impressive fourteen goals in their first five home games of the season despite facing some tough opponents, winning three times and drawing twice. HJK II have already faced two tough games – the trip to recently-relegated RoPS Rovaniemi and at home to promotion hopefuls PS Kemi Kings – so they’re really no mugs. As ever, I don’t expect their form to last for the season but they do start their campaigns well so it’s usually worthwhile to climb aboard whilst the value is there and the value certainly looks to be there today. HJK II smashed three goals past newly-promoted MP Mikkeli in their last home game so another newly-promoted side in their line of fire today should do nothing more than encourage the promising hosts.
Visitors OPS Oulu arrived in the Ykkonen in impressive fashion but haven’t shown that in the division, thus indicating the massive gap between the Kakkonen and the Ykkonen. They’ve only won once in their three Ykkonen games following promotion and that was against relegation-battlers TPV Tampere so they’ve not really overcome the barrier of quality before themselves yet. They’ve lost at home to an average PK-35 Helsinki and at surprise package PoPa Pori already this season so the slightest bit of quality coming up against them seems to give them a real nervous side and leaves them looking impotent and leaky at the back, which is always a dangerous combination. OPS Oulu simply aren’t good enough for the division so it’s hard for me to envision them surviving this season. Two consecutive defeats for OPS Oulu and a difficult away game leaves me fearing for the visitors today. HJK II are the joint top goalscorers in the division with PoPa Pori and thus I can’t see the weak visitors keeping them out today.
If this game was mid-season then I’d be more hesitant as HJK II appear to have a form of attention deficit disorder around that time and start drawing with everyone. However, they’re strong at home and they’re playing well so you have to feel that they can do the job today. Either way, it has to be worth a flutter at unbelievably generous odds of 11/10 – they should never be above evens when hosting a newly-promoted side!
Verdict: HJK II to win at 11/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lecce vs Cesena – beware!
Ah, the lovely Italian mafia are at it again! Most Serie B games have been pulled for this weekend but Bet365 were still offering odds on this game, which surprised me. This is allegedly a fixed draw and odds of 4/11 on the draw for this game backs up this theory. I won’t say that you should or shouldn’t back this game but if you feel reckless enough to smash money on it and side with the mafia then go for the draw.
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Newells Old Boys – away win at 17/10.
I spent most of my time trying to talk myself out of this selection but frankly more points to the away win than the bookies’ odds suggest, hence the recommendation.
San Lorenzo have had a dismal campaign due to a lack of goals. They’re generally a good side in this division and I’m a big advocate of theirs when they turn it on but they’re just not doing it this season. Only Rosario Central and Atletico Tucuman have a worse goalscoring record than tonight’s hosts with San Lorenzo failing to average scoring even a goal per game at the moment. They’ve lost three consecutive games so momentum is low and although I do believe that they’re a better side than Newells Old Boys, I can’t see them doing it with no momentum and little goalscoring threat, particularly having already lost three home games this season.
Visitors Newells Old Boys have won their last two visits to San Lorenzo without even conceding a goal. They’ve had a very good campaign indeed; better than they should have had, really, as I don’t believe they’re good enough to be where they are. However, momentum tends to dictate this division and few sides can match the momentum of Newells Old Boys as they enter this game on the back of six games without defeat, winning five of them with two out of their three away games during that run ending as wins. Newells’ away record this season isn’t flattering and they don’t score many goals but their stout defence rarely concedes which leads me to believe that they’ll keep out a rather impotent San Lorenzo side tonight – all they need to do is score. Although scoring has far from been Newells Old Boys’ forté since the departure of Paraguayan striker Oscar Cardozo some time ago, they are playing well enough to earn those breaks and those little bouts of luck which is why they’ve scored for their last three away games consecutively. Bluntly, Newells have a great chance of winning this game against the odds tonight so they have to be worth a bit of your thought time.
Incidentally, Newells have won three consecutive games ahead of this game, scoring thirteen times and conceding zero goals. That’s a formidable record and it’s good enough for me to back them against an under-performing and impotent San Lorenzo de Almagro side at very generous odds of 17/10.
Rubin Kazan vs CSKA Moscow – home win at 11/8.
I’ve loved betting on games with CSKA Moscow in this season because they’ve been as predictable as clockwork – they batter the weaker sides with their strong midfield and rarely manage to score against the bigger sides because their attack is incredibly inexperienced and limited. I rate Guilherme and Tomas Necid for CSKA Moscow but they’re both still young and aren’t providing the kind of threat that CSKA Moscow really need them to. Rubin Kazan are an extremely well-marshalled side, arguably the finest side tactically in the whole of Eastern Europe currently, which makes them very dangerous opponents. They’ve not even come close to hitting the peak of their form this season but have already beaten CSKA Moscow in the Russian Super Cup without conceding a goal and now have the perfect opportunity to do so again today. Rubin are the lowest conceding side in the division with just two goals conceded in ten games – an outstanding record, frankly, and it explains why they’re unbeaten this season. They’re not scoring enough goals but as I said – they’re not peaking yet and they’re missing the departed Dominguez. However, back-to-back wins for today’s hosts gives them good momentum despite their lower class opponents faced during that run so you have to give them their chances today.
The odds are good enough to take the home win on and the logic is there for all to see. CSKA have lost at home to Zenit St.Petersburg without scoring a goal, drawn at home to a talented but unconvincing Lokomotiv Moscow, and have drawn at home to an out-of-sorts Dinamo Moscow side without even scoring a goal. The ruling is simple – a strong defence is virtually impossible for CSKA to break through without individual brilliance, which Keisuke Honda is capable of producing from midfield, as is prodigy Alan Dzagoev and pacey winger Milos Krasic, but the fact is that they don’t have enough firepower up front to take their chances so they struggle. If Rubin take the lead in this game then I think they’ll keep out their title rivals and win the game but either way – odds of 11/8 for a very strong tactical side has to be worthy of consideration today.
Accumulator fodder:
Admira Wacker.
Recommended Bets:
I don’t like the look of any multiples today so I’d recommend sticking to singles today, particularly with some bad luck recently.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Newells Old Boys (7) 0-1
Banfield vs Boca Juniors (7) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
St.Polten vs Lustenau (6)
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna II (3) over 2.5 goals
Dornbirn vs Admira Wacker (8)
Hartberg vs SCR Altach (4)
Salzburg II vs Gratkorn (6) over 2.5 goals
English League One Play-Off:
Swindon Town vs Charlton Athletic (7) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs OPS Oulu (8)
French Ligue 2:
Guingamp vs AC Ajaccio (6)
Dijon FCO vs Angers SCO (7)
Laval vs Brest (4) over 2.5 goals
Nantes vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (5)
Arles vs Clermont Foot (5)
Bastia vs Istres (4)
Le Havre vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
Chateauroux vs Strasbourg (6)
Nimes vs Tours (6)
Metz vs Vannes OC (6)
German Bundesliga 2 Relegation/Promotion Play-Off:
Ingolstadt vs Hansa Rostock (5) 0-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Vasas Budapest (7) 2-0
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Galway United (7) 1-0
UCD vs Shamrock Rovers (4) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Lecce vs Cesena (8)
Russian Premier League:
Rubin Kazan vs CSKA Moscow (7) under 2.5 goals
Terek Grozny vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (6) 1-0
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Gombak United (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Castellon (7)
Swedish Superettan:
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!