IFK Goteborg vs Orebro
FreeToday’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between giants IFK Goteborg and over-achievers Orebro. IFK haven’t had a good start to their campaign but have performed well lately. Orebro have started the season well but are punching above their weight as usual and are starting to get caught out, particularly on the road, so should struggle tonight.
I’ll be the first to admit that IFK aren’t playing as well as they could or should be this season but they’re started to emerge as a good side in their recent games. They’ve not conceded a goal in three consecutive games with their last home game being an emphatic 4-0 win against rivals AIK Solna so they do bring some momentum into this game. A goalless draw at local rivals GAIS Goteborg last match wasn’t the most flattering out of outcomes but considering the circumstances of both sides at the time, I feel that IFK did well not to lose the game. IFK’s problem has been scoring goals but they notched up four against a tight AIK defence so they look to be back in business. IFK haven’t been as strong at home this season as they’d like but they do love to play Orebro here at Nya Gamla Ullevi, beating them for five consecutive meetings here now in all competitions, a run which has included all of Orebro’s trips here following promotion from the Superettan in 2006. Orebro haven’t even managed to score against IFK in their last two meetings so I expect the under-performing hosts to show up tonight and beat an old friend!
Orebro aren’t an easy side to play against but they tend to be outclassed against the bigger and better sides of the division, as their last two away games exemplify perfectly. Orebro were crushed 4-1 at an out-of-form and goal-shy Kalmar and were beaten 2-1 at in-form Helsingborgs in their last away match so I can only see them losing tonight. They’re a hard-working side and play confidently at home but away from home they concede too many goals and are often found short against the superior Allsvenskan sides, of which IFK is certainly a part. Orebro have already lost half of their away games this season and few sides have conceded more than they have whilst doing so which leaves this game looking a tad ominous with IFK really needing to continue their run and Orebro having already surpassed my own personal pre-season expectations for them. Orebro won’t make this game easy for IFK but they’ve got a horrific record here, they’ve lost their last two away games in a row, and they’re nowhere near as good as their hosts – that spells problems.
Bookies have been pricing IFK at about 8/11 for games like me, which doesn’t interest me at all considering IFK’s season so far. However, I’m happy to ride the generous 10/11 odds that the bookies have dished out because IFK are playing better than the form chart shows, they’re the better side, and have a damn good record here, so there should be value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to win at 10/11.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg – lay Salzburg at 6/4.
I love it when bookies put really stupid odds on games like this. There is no way on earth Salzburg should ever be so short at Sturm Graz. Don’t get me wrong – Salzburg are the better of the two sides, arguably the best in Austria even, but they’re not that much better! Sturm Graz are still very much part of Austria’s “Big Four” so the odds make little sense although the hosts are without motivation and the visitors need to win here to secure the Bundesliga title. However, Salzburg have really bottled it of late, which is unusual for them – they’re usually very composed. However, one win in five games has opened up the Bundesliga for a dramatic finale in which both major Vienna clubs can poach the title from them, something which would have been far-fetched purely as a dream only a few short weeks ago. Salzburg were embarrassed 2-0 at SV Kapfenberg in their last away game and even lost at home to title rivals Austria Vienna last match so morale is low and nerves are jangling as they enter the last game of the season for both clubs. The fact is that Salzburg aren’t playing well and they are going to face a good Graz side that have only lost three times at home this season. Hell, Salzburg haven’t won any of their last six visits here so their additional motivation won’t help them to the degree that the bookies expect, I’m sure! There’s still rivalry between these two clubs – Graz won’t just lie down here – so I can’t fathom why Salzburg are so short when they’re playing so badly. To me, there’s real value in laying the away side today because they’re not producing the goods and they’re now facing a side that can punish them for not turning up so I’m laying Salzburg at 6/4 today.
Verdict: Sturm Graz to win with a +1.75 goal handicap.
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod – home win at 5/4.
Two good sides, both with their eyes on promotion, lock horns here today. Only Chleny are producing the goods at the moment out of the two sides. Both have made sluggish starts to their respective Division 1 campaigns but Chelny are unbeaten in four games, winning their last three consecutively. They’ve won three out of their four home games already this season, drawing the other encounter. They’re a rather torrid side to watch with their low-scoring, dreary home wins, but they’re quite reliable with it which is the important thing really. They’ve beaten some good sides to earn this burst of momentum too, beating a defensively-strong Luch, recently-relegated FK Khimki, and another recently relegated side – Kuban Krasnodor. Two of those games were away from home and they didn’t concede a goal in any of those games, which is really rather impressive. They won this fixture 2-0 last season and were dominant at home in general last year with ten wins, five draws, and just two defeats in seventeen home games so they’re a side to be both feared and respected on their own turf. Besides, in the form that they’re currently in, I’d feel confident in backing them to beat any side in this division!
Volga struggled a lot on the road last year. It’s not that they were outplayed or outscored often because they weren’t. Hell, they only lost four away games all season! However, they drew an amazing eleven away games last season because although they don’t condede many goals, they don’t score many either. You’d have thought they’d have picked up on this obvious flaw during the transfer window and attempt to turn it around but they don’t appear to have bothered, losing three out of their four away games already this season, drawing the other encounter. Only newly-promoted Mordovia Saransk match their record of having failed to register an away goal this season and Volga will match last season’s total tally of away defeats if they lose today, thus indicating a swift step back rather than forwards in their overall progression. They’ve not won in their last three games and have lost their last two games consecutively so they’re a bit short of just about everything at the moment – they’re certainly not in the right frame of mind to do damage to the hosts today, in my opinion!
There’s not much quality difference between the two sides but the hosts are more experienced and are looking absolutely lethal after a slow start. The visitors are looking the inexperienced side that they are in this league and even their supposed riches can’t save them from tough away trips in this division. I expect a rather droll encounter between these two today but there’s definitely value in the home win if Chelny play as well in this game as they have in recent times.
Verdict: KamAZ Nab Chelny to win at 5/4.
Aarau vs Grasshoppers Zurich – away win at evens.
The worst side in the Super League facing arguably the most in-form side in the Super League? It’s actually a more interesting contest than the statistics suggest. Why? Well, Aarau aren’t that bad and Grasshoppers aren’t that good – they’re simply at opposite ends of the momentum ladder. Aarau are already relegated and Grasshoppers are already assured of European football next season so there’s no clash of motivation here, which makes me believe we’ll see a lot of goals here with Grasshoppers having scored nine goals in their last three games and Aarau conceding seven times during their last two games. Aarau have won two out of their last three home games so they bring some momentum into this game at least and Grasshoppers don’t have a great away record with just six wins in seventeen away games this season so I can understand the odds. However, Grasshoppers are still the better side irrespective of how much better they actually are and their form in the second half of this season has been outstanding. If they maintain this form next season then they stand a good chance of getting back into the title race as they used to with Young Boys Bern and Basel, which is better for Swiss football as a whole, in my opinion. Grasshoppers don’t score enough goals on the road but Aarau leak enough for that fact to not overly concern me. Aarau have done well at home in recent times but when they’ve faced the giants of the league – Basel and Young Boys Bern – they’ve been completely embarrased, losing by at least a three goal margin in each encounter so they certainly know their limits. Aarau are plucky but should be undone by a momentum-driven Grasshoppers side today. It’s a redundant game so keep stakes low but the away win at evens should be a good value bet today for a frankly better side.
Verdict: Grasshoppers Zurich to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Austria Vienna, Germany, Mexico, FK Krasnodor, Zhemchuzhina Sochi, Hammarby, Basel.
Recommended bets:
Grasshoppers Zurich, IFK Goteborg, and FK Krasnodor at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Internacional vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs Rapid Vienna (7) 1-2
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg (6) 0-1
SV Kapfenberg vs LASK Linz (7) 1-1
Austria Vienna vs SV Ried (9) 2-1
Austria Karnten vs Wiener Neustadt (4) 1-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Sint-Truiden (7) 1-0
Belgian Tweede Klasse Play-Offs:
KVSK United vs Mons (6) under 2.5 goals
Eupen vs Roeselare (5) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs Rijeka (6) 1-0
Inter Zapresic vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (5) 2-1
Slaven Koprivnica vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 1-1
Zadar vs NK Zagreb (5) 1-1
Osijek vs Cibalia Vinkovci (6) 0-0
Croatia Sesvete vs Hajduk Split (8) 0-2
Medimurje vs Sibenik (7) 0-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Karlovac (7) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
EB/Streymur vs AB Argir (7) 1-0
B71 vs HB Torshavn (8) over 2.5 goals
B36 vs Vikingur Gotu (6) 2-2
IF Fuglafjordur vs Suduroy (6) 1-0
German Bundesliga Play-Off:
Nurnberg vs Augsburg (7) 2-0
International Friendly:
Germany vs Malta (10) -2.75 handicap
Mexico vs Angola (9) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie Play-Off:
Roda JC Kerkrade vs FC Utrecht (6) 0-0
Dutch Nacompetitie:
Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II (6) 1-1
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam (6) 2-1
Russian Division 1:
Irtysh Omsk vs FK Khimki (6) under 1.5 goals
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Kuban Krasnodor (6)
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (7) over 2.5 goals
Mordovia Saransk vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (7)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (4)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Energia Khabarovsk (5)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Avangard Kursk (7)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Rotor Volgograd (8)
Dinamo Bryansk vs Salyut Belgorod (7)
FK Krasnodor vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (8)
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Home United (6) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs Orebro (7) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Osters (8)
Swiss Super League:
Aarau vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) 1-2
Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) 2-0
Luzern vs Young Boys Bern (7) 1-2
St.Gallen vs Bellinzona (7) 2-0
FC Zurich vs Sion (5) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!