Ingolstadt vs Hertha HSC Berlin
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga 2 game between Ingolstadt and Hertha HSC Berlin. Ingolstadt were set to wave Bundesliga 2 farewell earlier this season with some inept displays but have regrouped over the winter break and should provide stiff opposition for Bundesliga 2 giants Hertha HSC Berlin tonight as a result.
Ingolstadt have only lost three out of their nine Bundesliga 2 games in 2011 and those were against Augsburg, Greuther Furth, and Fortuna Dusseldorf respectively, who are all pretty damn good sides. Ingolstadt have only failed to score against Augsburg and Greuther Furth during those nine games so you can see the correlation between Ingolstadt’s uptrend in form and their ability to find the net. Over the transfer window, Ingolstadt brought in experienced defender Biliskov to sort out their mediocre defence, which has helped but the Croatian isn’t God so there’s only so much he can do with poor players around him! However, most notably, Ingolstadt signed three good attackers – Edson Buddle, Artur Wichinarek, and Caiuby. Buddle brings pace and energy to their attack, Wichinarek brings experinece (although he’s yet to make an appearance for them) and Caiuby brings skill and finesse. Ingolstadt have improved drastically as a result and they’ve actually won their last three games in a row against Karlsuher SC, Alemannia Aachen, and FSV Frankfurt respectively, scoring eight goals along the way so Ingolstadt really need to be taken a lot more seriously nowadays, even without important midfielder Buchner.
HSC Hertha Berlin lead the Bundesliga 2 table although at times I’m left questioning why that is as they’re surely the most up-and-down side in the division in terms of motivation. There’s no doubting their ability whatsoever; they’re genuinely the best side in the division. However, if they aren’t motivated then they rarely get anything from a game, just like their defeat at home to Union Berlin last month or the draw at home to Energie Cottbus. They’ve demonstrated their ability beyond any reasonable doubt by winning 0-5 at Alemannia Aachen, just to name one of their excellent displays lately. Hertha have already won eight on the road in Bundesliga 2 this season and if they’re not promoted then I’ll be very, very surprised. However, they do suffer from defensive lapses as is proven by the fact that they’ve conceded in seven out of their last nine away games in the Bundesliga 2 so they are susceptible against the right opponent.
If forced into a 1×2 selection then I’d side with Hertha here for obvious reasons. However, considering that they’re missing three absolutely essential players tonight – full-back Lell, holding midfielder Kobiashvili, and and attacking midfielder Niemeyer – I’m going to ignore the away win here. Instead, backing both sides to score at 8/11 really appeals to me here, despite the fairly short odds. Ingolstadt have got some good attacking players and are playing well and the same can be said for Hertha so both sides scoring in this game looks virtually guaranteed (famous last words!).
Team news – Ingolstadt miss Gercaliu, Buchner, and Wichinarek whereas Hertha HSC Berlin miss Kobiashvili, Lell, and Niemeyer.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 8/11.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Universidad Catolica vs Santiago Morning – lay Universidad Catolica at 7/4.
Despite Univerisdad Catolica’s extremely convincing head-to-head record against Santiago Morning, I simply cannot overlook the highly generous odds available on laying them tonight. Why lay them? They’re top of the league and playing really well; Ian must have gone mad!
Possibly. However, I’m going ahead with it nonetheless because Pizzi has made it perfectly clear that Catolica are prioritising the Copa Libertadores and with a do-or-die game with Caracas in Venezuela looming large in the near future, I can’t help but feel that they’ll rest players here. If not, they’ll be playing players in their third game in eight days, which would almost certainly cause a rusty/ineffectual display so either way, I don’t fancy Catolica here. In addition to the above, Catolica have failed to win in two out of their three domestic pre-Copa Libertadores games so far this season as they’ve rested players, losing at newly-promoted Union La Calera and drawing at home to the bitter rivals of tonight’s opponents Santiago Morning – Santiago Wanderers. Santiago Morning have already won at in-form Universidad de Chile this season against the odds and Universidad didn’t have anything pre-occupying them for that game so the visitors need to be taken seriously here. Santiago Morning’s sole away defeat this season came against rivals Santiago Wanderers so Catolica are going to need to play well here to continue their run of excellent form and with players likely to be rested, I think laying Catolica at 7/4 has some value tonight.
Verdict: Lay Universidad Catolica at 7/4.
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportivo Pereira – both sides to score.
Firstly, there are no odds available for this selection but if they’re at 4/5 or higher then take it; leave it if they’re lower.
Why? Well, this is Once Caldas’ third game in six days; exhausted is not the word! Once Caldas are one of the best sides in Colombia and they do have depth in their team but to expect them to be at 100% tonight, especially after a tiring game at home to San Luis of Mexico just two days ago, is unrealistic. Once Caldas have conceded in six out of their seven home games in all competitions so far this season due to their flambuoyant attacking style and with the possibility of an under-strength side being fielded tonight, that should be more evident than ever. Deportivo Pereira aren’t having a good campaign but they have scored in three out of their last four away games in all competitions, including an unexpected 0-1 victory at Deportes Tolima and a 2-1 defeat at Atletico Junior Barranquilla so they’re not daunted by the big names in Colombia at all. Four out of the last five head-to-head encounters have involved both sides scoring in this game and with the above in mind, I find it likely that the same will occur again tonight.
Verdict: Both sides to score.
Viktoria Plzen vs Ceske Budejovice – under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Viktoria Plzen enter this game on the back of a fairly fortuitous win against Sparta Prague but they’ll have taken momentum from that game. However, despite their convincing statistics, I still don’t think that they’re worth 1/4 to win this game. I’ve no doubts whatsoever in my mind that they’re the better of these two sides but contrary to Ceske Budejovice’s away record, they’re actually a fairly solid defensive side and if they can frustrate sides for long enough then they tend to take unexpected points. Goalscoring is simply not part of Ceske Budejovice’s gameplan away from home so I don’t see them scoring here, even with Plzen’s defensive vulnerability currently. For me, this game is all about how many Plzen will score and I don’t envision it being as many as it should be, to be honest. They’re missing two instrumental midfielders in experienced Pavel Horvath and the ever-attacking Milan Petrzela so the reliance switches entirely to Daniel Kolar on the wing and Jan Rezek in attack. Don’t get me wrong – that should be enough for Plzen to edge the game but with those options missing in midfield, I just don’t see how Plzen are 1/4 to win the game against a side that has consistently “parked the bus” away from home. With the above in mind, I think the best option to take here is under 2.5 goals at decent odds of 21/20, especially as six out of the last seven meetings between the two sides have gone under 2.5 goals.
Team news – Viktoria Plzen miss Petrzela and Horvath.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
AGF Aarhus vs Hobro – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I’d utilise some caution here as this is the first game back after the winter break for both sides but AGF Aarhus should still clear the handicap here. The statistics show that Hobro are hard to beat away from home and I think there’s truth in that. However, they’re facing a side that is easily twice as good as they are so the newly-promoted visitors should struggle here against what is effectively a Superligaen side. AGF Aarhus lost striker Williams over the break, which was a blow. However, he was replaced with Soren Berg from Randers and his partnership with Peter Graulund makes AGF Aarhus by far the most experienced and clinical side (from an attacking perspective) in the division, in my view. Hobro may score goals away from home and make life tough for sides but they should really be outclassed by a superior AGF Aarhus today, even with new holding midfielder Norregaard missing the game through injury. Therefore, my call is the AGF -1.5 handicap victory at decent odds of 4/5, especially as they’ve already achieved that feat five times at home this season and even moreso as Hobro are yet to face what I call a good side away from home this season.
Team news – AGF Aarhus miss Norregaard.
Verdict: AGF Aarhus to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Kaiserslautern – home win at 5/4.
This is a bit of a bold call as it’s a relegation six-pointer but to put it simply, Gladbach impress me more with their attacking ways. I think it’s fair to say that Kaiserslautern have better strikers than Gladbach but Gladbach have a better attacking team than Kaiserslautern and I’m hoping that counts tonight.
Gladbach have a fine playmaker in Juan Arango and although they miss their most dangerous striker de Camargo for this game, they do still have Idrissou, whose power will be a big asset for them tonight. Gladbach’s problem is that their team is rather youthful and although talented, it’s occasionally lacking in finesse and experience. However, it’s a do-or-die situation and Gladbach have only lost once in their last four games, winning their last two home games in a row and actually scoring six goals in their last three home games so they do need to be taken seriously here. Let’s face it – Kaiserslautern cannot defend and should make chances easy to come by for the hosts tonight. Kaiserslautern themselves have played well lately too with just one defeat in their last five games, winning their last match 2-1 at home to a good SC Freiburg side. However, what I would point out is that three of those games were at home, where Kaiserslautern are strong, and the only away game that they didn’t lose came against Eintracht Frankfurt and occurred because the hosts failed to score, becoming the first home side in the Bundesliga that has failed to register a goal against Kaiserslautern. The visitors largely have a full squad tonight and are capable of causing problems in attack but they’re so prone defensively that I think Venezuelan star Arango will run the show and if he does then Gladbach should claim an extremely important three points in this game. Either way, considering that Kaiserslautern have lost more away games than any other Bundesliga side this season – nine from thirteen – whilst conceding over two goals per away game, backing in-form Gladbach to beat them at 5/4 appeals to me here.
Team news – Borussia Moenchengladbach miss ter Stegen, Dorda, Janeczek, Stalteri, Wissing, and de Camargo whereas Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correia, Damjanovic, Lucas, Simunek, Amri, Dzaka, Fuchs, Stulin, and Zeliner.
Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to win at 5/4.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse Arnhem – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
I like Vitesse Arnhem a lot and I’ll give them their chances at Gelredome but they’re not cohesive enough to play well away from home yet, something that was indicated very well indeed during a bizarre 6-1 defeat at Heracles Almelo. Therefore, I don’t expect much from the ever-improve Vitesse here.
Happily they’re facing AZ Alkmaar and the Alkmaarderhout may not be a feared venue for the vast majority of teams but it’s certainly a place where few sides score due to AZ’s strong defensive displays and I expect more of the same tonight on that front. AZ are not a prolific goalscoring side but they’re an efficient unit when it comes to beating sides and that’s the AZ I expect to see tonight. AZ slipped up twice in their last five games, losing 4-0 on each occasion. However, given as those two games were against AFC Ajax Amsterdam and PSV Eindhoven respectively, I think we can overlook them here. AZ Alkmaar have played quite well aside from in those games and when AZ play well, games tend to go under 2.5 goals as they try to dominate play and convert the odd chance before sitting on it. AZ are good enough to contain an enthusiastic Vitesse here – on the goals front, at least – and that should show by the final whistle too. Vitesse have gone under 2.5 goals in five out of their last six games as they are still trying to get used to one another without scoring on a prolific basis but whilst defending stoutly so I think we’ll see a low-scoring affair here. Vitesse do have some talented attacking players but youth and injuries are problems n that front so I think they’ll find it hard to break AZ down here. For me, this game has some value in the under 2.5 goals selection as it’s reasonably priced at 5/4.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
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Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport – away win at 7/5.
Although bad records can’t last forever, now is the time to go against over-achieving Eindhoven. They’re without a win in six Eerste Divisie games, losing five times and drawing once along the way. They’ve scored an appalling two goals during that run whilst leaking ten goals and that basically means that they’re struggling. Their most recent defeat was at home to AGOVV Appeldoorn earlier this week in a bizarre 0-1 defeat and with Eindhoven having failed to score for three consecutive home games now, it’s hard to rate their chances against a superior Helmond Sport side. I don’t rate Helmond Sport’s attack as highly as some people do, to be honest, as they’re quite a wasteful side in front of goal. However, they usually manage to get at least one token goal away from home because they are a good side and if they do that here then they should record a win as Eindhoven are demoralised and impotent currently. Away wins in this division are never easy to call so do approach with caution but at 7/5, Helmond Sport simply look too long here so my call is the away win.
Verdict: Helmond Sport to win at 7/5.
Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes – both sides to score at 10/11.
This game tonight should be a really good one, in my view. Both sides need the points for varying reasons but the superior of the two sides – Vitoria – are not playing well whereas newly-promoted Portimonense are. Portimonense are unbeaten in four games, despite travelling to the Estadio do Luz last match and drawing with mighty SL Benfica 1-1, although it’s worth noting that Benfica did rest a whole host of players for that game. Take nothing away from Portimonense though – they are playing well and they’ve only failed to score in four out of their twleve home games in the Liga Sagres this season so they’re no pushovers on that front. The reason that they struggle is because their defence is inept and in all honesty, that will probably cost them their place in the division this season although football can be a funny game sometimes.
Barring trips to SL Benfica and Porto, the only times Vitoria have failed to score away from home this season was on the opening day of the campaign in a 0-0 draw with defensive moguls Olhanense and in Madeira against the ever-difficult Maritimo Funchal. Aside from that, Vitoria tend to run riot and score goals away from home. They don’t always concede but with Edson absent tonight, there’s every chance that little Portimonense will score against them, especially considering the momentum that they bring into this game. The firepower that Vitoria possess in Edgar Silva and Marcelo Toscano virtually guarantees the visitors to at least score tonight but to overcome relegation-threatened Portimonense may be another thing entirely so be careful here.
I have no interest in the 1×2 market here but as far as goals go, I think that we’re onto something! Portimonense often score at home and Vitoria often score away. Both sides need the points for varying reasons so my call is for both sides to score at generous odds of 10/11.
Team news – Vitoria Guimaraes miss Edson, Maranhao, and Joao Alves.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Victoria Branesti vs Poli Timisoara – away win at 4/5.
Poli Timisoara haven’t won many away games this season – just three out of eleven, in fact – but they’re still one of the best sides in Romania at the moment. That’s perhaps not a particularly hard task as many of the big names are really struggling this year but they’re still unbeaten away from home, importantly, and they’ve come back strong from the winter break with three wins in three games, scoring nine goals along the way. They’ve won at CFR Cluj and smashed three past Gaz Metan Medias along the way so they’ve not simply had an easy run. I’d make a case for all three of the sides that they’ve beaten being better sides than hosts Victoria Branesti today, in fact, so I think we’ll end up with an away win here. You have to remember that Victoria Branesti are not playing at home this season; their games are played in Buzau so there’s no home advantage here. Victoria Branesti play with spirit and cohesion but without much talent or finesse and this is the kind of game where they could and should be exposed. They lost 0-1 at home to a Steaua Bucharest side devoid of attackers last match so just imagine what an in-form and potent Poli Timisoara side can do to them! Victoria Branesti may have only lost twice “at home” this season but both defeats came against big clubs, which is something that I expect Poli Timisoara to continue the trend of today.
Poli Timisoara miss defensive regular Scutaru for this game but I’m not concerned; there are adequate replacements for Poli Timisoara. With an attack containing the skilful Zicu and target man Margera, not to mention pacey Axente, I can’t help but feel that Poli Timisoara will have too much for their opponents today so my call is the away win at 4/5.
Team news – Poli Timisoara miss Curtean, Mansour, and Scutaru.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win at 4/5.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce – away win at 6/5.
I’ve gone against Galatasaray time and time again lately as they predictably continue to fail against…well, everyone! Now I’m going against them in the “eternal derby”, which is a bold call – you won’t see many away wins in these type of games – but Gala are so frail and fragile right now that I have to take the chance here. Galatasaray are not scoring goals and thus manager Hagi is under a lot of pressure. Hagi did well to sign talented Romanian prospect Bogdan Stancu in attack, who has already bagged a few goals for his new club, but it’s just not enough. Hagi’s tactics are quite defensive and given that Gala lack a lot of natural ability nowadays, it’s not surprising at all to see them struggling to score goals. The pressure on Hagi is felt by the players and as such the confidence levels are low in Gala’s camp so it’s hard to give them a realistic chance here, especially on the back of four games without a win, two of which they’ve not even scored in. They’ve scored a paltry one goal in their last three home games and that goal was against the newly-promoted Bucaspor, who are very likely to not even be in the Super Lig next season, so you can see the mass of problems that are facing Galatasaray at the moment.
On the other side of the coin, things couldn’t be better for bitter rivals Fenerbahce, who are playing really well at the moment. They’ve won nine consecutive games in all competitions and have scored a hell of a lot of goals along the way. They’ve got the best striker in Turkey in Niang, in my view, and with the likes of Alex, Senturk, and Dia all contributing to the lethal Fenerbahce attack, you have to fancy the visitors a lot here. Fenerbahce have won their last four away games in a row, even beating Besiktas JK 2-4 along the way, so you can see how strong their momentum and belief is at the moment. They’ve slid past Trabzonspor in the table to ominously claim first place as the season begins to draw to a close and you wouldn’t bet against them winning it in this kind of form. Unlike hosts Galatasaray, Fenerbahce really believe in themselves at the moment and for me, that’s the key difference between them today.
Derbies are never easy to call, especially in Turkey. However, I do think that there’s some value in backing Fenerbahce to win this one at decent odds of 6/5 as is explained above, although I’d leave it if the odds drop – there isn’t a derby in Turkey at the moment that I’d take the away win for at odds less than 6/5 at! Midfielder Emre will miss the return to face his old club Galatasaray today through injury but Fenerbahce should have sufficient cover so my call is the away win here.
Team news – Galatasaray miss Sabri Sarioglu, Serkan Kurtulus, and Caglar Birinci whereas Fenerbahce miss Belozoglu Emre.
Verdict: Fenerbahce to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
SCR Altach, AGF Aarhus, RKC Waalwijk, Zwolle.
Recommended bets:
Poli Timisoara, Borussia Moenchengladbach, and AGF Aarhus at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Austrian Liga 1:
WAC/St.Andra vs St.Polten (7) over 2.5 goals
Grodig vs Gratkorn (5) over 2.5 goals
Austria Lustenau vs Admira Wacker (6) under 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs Lustenau (8)
First Vienna vs Hartberg (3) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Santiago Morning (4) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportivo Pereira (5) both sides to score
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Karlovac (6) 1-1
Inter Zapresic vs Istra 1961 (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Ceske Budejovice (6) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
AGF Aarhus vs Hobro (8) -1.5 handicap
English League Two:
Chesterfield vs Rotherham United (7)
Southend United vs Hereford United (6)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Reims (6)
Angers SCO vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (5)
Boulogne vs Troyes (6)
Chateauroux vs Vannes OC (6)
Clermont Foot vs Le Mans (5)
Dijon FCO vs Metz (6) under 2.5 goals
Grenoble Foot vs Stade Lavallois (5) under 1.5 goals
Nimes vs Istres (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Le Havre (5) both sides to score
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Kaiserslautern (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Ingolstadt vs Hertha HSC Berlin (7)
MSV Duisburg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5) under 2.5 goals
1860 Munich vs Karlsruher SC (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Fehervar vs Debreceni VSC (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Sligo Rovers (5) 1-1
Dundalk vs Bohemians (6) 0-1
Galway United vs UCD (5) 2-1
Drogheda United vs Derry City (5) 0-1
Shamrock Rovers vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Sassuolo vs Modena (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Almere City vs Volendam (4)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Telstar (5)
RKC Waalwijk vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (8) over 2.5 goals
Zwolle vs RBC Roosendaal (8)
MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch (6)
Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport (6)
Emmen vs Fortuna Sittard (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde FK (4) 2-2
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Zaglebie Lubin (6) 1-1
Ruch Chorzow vs Gornik Zabrze (5) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Piast Gliwice vs LKS Lodz (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Portimonense vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (5) 1-1
Victoria Branesti vs Poli Timisoara (7) 0-1
Gloria Bistrita vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Home United (6) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Deportivo Xerez (5) both sides to score
Turkish Super Lig:
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorskla Poltava vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown (6) 2-1
Port Talbot Town vs Llanelli (5) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!