Italy vs Mexico
FreeToday’s featured game is the International friendly between Italy and Mexico. The game is being played in Brussels, Belgium, and thus is on neutral territory. This is Italy’s first friendly in preparation for the World Cup, which surprises me as there is a lot of work to do in the Italian camp, in my opinion. Opponents Mexico, however, have been arguably the most active international side in the world in preparing for this World Cup with seven games played in the last month so they already have the advantage of match practice over the reigning World Cup champions.
I’m really surprised that Marcello Lippi has decided to give Italy such little match practice ahead of the World Cup. They are the world champions currently but they’ve got an ageing side that need to deal with robust sides sooner or later or will find themselves out of the World Cup very quickly. Italy also have problems scoring goals and again that’s something they need to be prepared for. Italy haven’t been convincing in their last five games in all competitions with two wins and three draws from their four home games and one away game. During that run, Italy hosted Cameroon, Netherlands, and travelled to Republic of Ireland, failing to win any of those games due to a lack of goals scored. Italy are as solid as ever in defence (if only a bit slower!) but their attack is looking particularly susceptible as the footballing world develops massively around them but not for them. I’ve got real fears for them ahead of this World Cup because they now possess a squad that is capable of being put out in the group stages despite facing a fairly straightforward group. Italy have some sensational individuals but en mass they’re ageing drastically and their footballing style is outdated and often dealt with rather well by opposing sides. Look at Internazionale, for example. They’ve just won the UEFA Champions League but started the final with a grand total of zero Italian players. Why? Because Italian football is becoming outdated and Jose Mourinho, being the astute manager he is, knew that. You can never write off an Italy side that boasts the brilliance of Andrea Pirlo so I’ll give them the respect that they deserve – they always stand a chance of scoring whilst he’s in the squad – but I fear for them in the World Cup ahead.
Mexico have emphasised beyond any reasonable doubt of late that they cannot defend (particularly from set pieces) and that they love to score goals. Anything new learned there? No, not really! In their last three games, Mexico have scored seven times and conceded six times so I think it’s fairly safe to say that they’re not involved in boring games. They’ve got some superb individuals and their energetic style should prove difficult to handle for their ageing opponents today. I’m a little concerned over the dedication (or lack of) by Mexican starlet Giovanni Dos Santos following his quit threats after Mexico manager Javier Aguirre elected not to take Giovanni’s younger brother Jonathan Dos Santos to the World Cup, which has naturally caused mayhem in the Mexican camp unnecessarily. Why do they always blow things out of proportion?! Either way, Mexico have some superb youngsters emerging and a good mixture of those and experienced heads so I expect them to ruffle a few Italian feathers tonight by scoring at least once, particularly with their pace advantage.
What will the outcome of this game be? Who knows? If I was forced into deciding I’d probably favour Italy although I’ll stick with my call of a draw. However, my selection today is both sides to score at generous odds of evens. Mexico can score and concede against anyone, frankly, which plays a large role in my bet. Italy scoring is actually my biggest concern because they lack such innovation sometimes that it’s bizarre! However, I’m banking on “samba” defending from the Mexicans which should give the Italians chance to score, at least from set pieces, so backing both sides to score today looks a good call to me.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Spain vs South Korea – both sides to score at evens.
I can’t overlook Spain winning this one but I can’t consider the backing them on the handicap here after their display last match against Saudi Arabia. Their defending was poor and their attack was a tad ineffectual more often than not against resilient Saudi Arabia. Nobody can possibly dimiss the potency of the Spanish with the options and talent of Torres, Villa, and Llorente respectively and they’re more than capable of scoring three goals in this game as a result. However, their defending does concern me so I won’t touch the handicap, particularly at such short odds. South Korea are capable of troubling this shaky defence today and I think they’ll nick at least one goal. South Korea have improved a lot over the past twelve months and have started to learn to deal with contrasting footballing styles outside of Asia, impressively. They’ve notched up seven goals in their four friendlies since March despite facing an arsenal of difficult sides in their own respective ways – Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and bitter rivals Japan – so they’ve earned a lot of respect from various quarters during this period. Most notably, however, they’ve only conceded against Belarus during this run of four games, which is yet again testament to their advances. I think they’ve got enough in attack to at least score against Spain today although I think they’ll be outdone by the European Champions ultimately. Either way, backing both sides to score at evens could be a good bet today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Corinthians vs Internacional – home win at 10/11.
The odds on the home win are a tad shorter than I’d hoped but I can’t overlook these decent odds. Wealthy Corinthians have set Serie A alight with four wins and one draw from their first five games of the season with some assured and composed displays. Only Santos have scored as many goals as they have so far in Serie A and only newly-promoted Ceara can claim to have won three home games out of three, which is yet another record that Corinthians boast entering this game. They were rattled a little by Santos last match in what resulted as a 4-2 win for Corinthians and I expect that result to keep them on their toes for this game rather than getting complacent. Internacional haven’t beaten Corinthians in their last three attempts in all competitions and lost their last visit here and look likely to extend that problematic period with the driven hosts tonight looking very potent indeed.
Internacional had a very good campaign last year but have struggled to get going this year. They’ve won just twice in five Serie A games but have lost three times, two of which were worryingly at home. The statistics don’t tell the whole story as Internacional have been resting players for some of these games to allow for their Copa Libertadores campaign to take flight. With the next round of that competition put back to the end of July to avoid clashing with the World Cup, Internacional are now able to focus fully on their Serie A campaign and they showed that by demolishing Atletico Paranaense 4-1 at home last match. However, it’s difficult to simply pick yourselves up and get on the momentum train and I think we’ll see that from Internacional tonight. I have a lot of respect for the visitors and the likes of D’Alessandro makes them an excellent passing side. However, their one flaw since the departure of Pato is that they don’t score enough goals by comparison and that has shown both domestically and continentally this season, something which I expect a potent Corinthians side to capitalise upon tonight.
As I mentioned previously, I’d prefer longer odds for this selection as these are two heavyweights of Brazilian football and that always brings tension. However, I can’t ignore the excellent form and potency of Corinthians tonight so I have to favour the hosts at decent odds of 10/11.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 10/11.
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 – away win at 13/8.
Approach this one with a lot of caution but there should be some good value here. Mjondalen aren’t as bad as the table suggests and Sarpsborg 08 are good but mostly at home rather than away so the odds are pretty accurate on this game. However, Mjondalen are in the drop zone because they’re not scoring goals and Sarpsborg are near the top because they are and that’s pretty much entirely what I’m basing this selection on. Mjondalen have won just once in four home games this season, losing twice along the way. They’ve only conceded four times but just two goals scored leaves them with prolems and lessened morale as a result. Sarpsborg are the top goalscorers in the division at the moment away from home with an average of over two goals scored per away game and despite their defence being one of the weakest away from home, you have to give them their dues – they’ll punish sides in front of goal. Momentum favours the visitors with four wins in their last five games in all competitions and although I expect them to concede against Mjondalen, I don’t believe that the hosts have enough momentum to capitalise on their defensive woes so I have to side with a very potent and determined Sarpsborg to nick this one today and it has to be worth a punt at generous odds of 13/8.
Verdict: Sarpsborg 08 to win at 13/8.
Accumulator fodder:
Spain, Gremio.
Recommended bets:
Both teams to score in Spain vs South Korea, Italy vs Mexico, and Germany vs Bosnia-Herzegovina at 7/1.
Corinthians and Gremio at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Brazilian Serie A:
Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro (8) under 2.5 goals
Vasco da Gama vs Guarani (5) 1-1
Corinthians vs Internacional (7) 1-0
International Friendlies:
Spain vs South Korea (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score (played in Austria)
Italy vs Mexico (6) both sides to score (played in Belgium)
Germany vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Mjondalen vs Sarpsborg 08 (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Balestier Khalsa (5) 0-0
Young Lions vs Tampines Rovers (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!