Jablonec vs Slavia Prague
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between Jablonec and Slavia Prague. The hosts have had a good season whereas their opponents have had a poor season but that doesn’t always tell the full story, as we all know.
However, I’m still very keen to back Jablonec to win this one today, irrespective of the redundancy of this game for both sides. Jablonec have been terrific at home this season with ten wins from fourteen Gambrinus Liga games. They’ve averaged scoring just under three goals per home game whilst averaging conceding less than a goal per home game so it’s no surprise whatsoever that the only side to win here this season is the side that is currently leading the table – Viktoria Plzen. Jablonec have won seven out of their last nine home games and have scored a minimum of two goals per home game for eight of those nine games. To get a result off Jablonec, you have to play very well and score a lot of goals, two things that I don’t expect Slavia Prague to do today.
Slavia Prague has a lot of problems at the moment due to their perilous financial position. The good news is that they’ve been granted a license to compete in the Gambrinus Liga next season. The bad news is that they’ve been fined 750,000kc for their fans’ riots in the Pohar CMFS and have been told that they must play three home games behind closed doors, the first one of which has already been played against Marila Pribram. Where Slavia Prague hope to get that money from is beyond me as it’s their precarious financial position that has landed them in trouble in the first place. There’s a big disharmony at the club at the moment with boss Petrous blaming the fans for the Pohar CMFS exit whilst legends of the club have been speaking to the media and saying that they support the fans whereas the players are just begging the fans not to keep protesting etc. It’s all happened because of a supposed mystery takeover of the club which some want and some don’t but either way – Slavia Prague is not the place to be right now.
The visitors have a habit of digging deep at times like these but with all the trouble that currently faces them, I can’t see them taking points off Jablonec today. The hosts should have way too much firepower for Slavia to handle so although we should see quite a few goals today, the home win at 4/5 appeals to me a lot here.
Verdict: Jablonec to win at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia – home win at evens.
This one is more about logic than anything else. Statistics show how strong Lokomotiv Plovdiv have been at home this season with eight wins in fourteen A PFG games whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game. In fact, the only side that can match the number of goals than Lokomotiv Plovdiv have scored at home this season is giants Levski Sofia so don’t underestimate Lokomotiv Plovdiv here.
Now, contrary to what the A PFG table shows you, Lokomotiv are still very much in the hunt for a UEFA Europa League place next season. This is possible only if CSKA Sofia win the Bulgarian Cup Final next week but given that they’re facing Slavia Sofia, you have to expect them to win it. Aside from that, you also have to expect them to rest players here because that final is just a few days away and CSKA Sofia can’t move up or down in the A PFG rankings so I think the opportunity is there for Lokomotiv Plovdiv to claim a UEFA Europa League place. Their biggest competitiors Lokomotiv Sofia are at home to league leaders Litex Lovech so could easily drop points there and their other close rivals Cherno More Varna have a tricky away game today so Lokomotiv Plovdiv could very well get that UEFA Europa League place – they must win today though.
The hosts miss regular defender Kavdanski, which is a blow. However, given that I expect the visitors to rest players and how many goals the hosts score, I think there’s potentially value in the home win at evens.
Team news – Lokomotiv Plovdiv miss Kavdanski.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at evens.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Litex Lovech – away win at 13/10.
I’ve praised Lokomotiv Sofia a lot lately as they’re starting to adjust to life without their “holy trinity” in attack but what I’ve also said is that they should get “found out” in the big games – like this one.
Lokomotiv Sofia have a hard-working team. They’ve got some very good and experineced players in midfield but they’re suspect at the back and poor in front of goal due to having no naturally gifted strikers. They’ve got enough firepower to score one or two past the average A PFG side but Litex Lovech aren’t the average side in this division; they’re the best side in it.
A lot of people have claimed Litex are where they are due to refereering help but is that even a serious claim? They’ve still won twenty-two out of twenty-eight A PFG games this season and if they’ve bought a referee twenty-two times then I don’t think it’s financially worthwhile for them to just win the league at the end of it – they’d probably only just about break even!
No, Litex are where they are because they’re ruthlessly efficient, especially so on the road. This side simply does not concede goals away from home and that’s naturally a massive boost for them. They average conceding a goal per every two away games and considering that they’ve conceded just two goals away from home in the A PFG since the beginning of September, I think there’s a good case here for Lokomotiv Sofia joining the hordes of A PFG sides that have failed to score at home against Litex this season.
All Litex tend to need is a goal to win games and given Lokomotiv’s perilous defensive record, I think you can see where I’m coming from! Admittedly, Litex don’t need to win this game – a draw would suffice. However, I think they’ll score here to make sure and that’s usually enough for them to win games. For me, there’s value in the away win at 13/10.
Verdict: Litex Lovech to win at 13/10.
Poli Timisoara vs Dinamo Bucharest – home win at 53/50.
The name of the game is quite simple for Poli Timisoara today, if not so easy to action – win the game, and play UEFA Champions League football next season. Theoretically, they can lose this game and still play UEFA Champions League football next season but that scenario requires Vaslui to lose at Pandurii Targu Jiu and as much as I respect Pandurii Targu Jiu under talented boss Grigoras, Vaslui tend to get a result when they need it and they absolutely need it so Poli Timisoara need to finish the job off themselves.
Unbeaten at home this season, Poli Timisoara have won ten out of sixteen on their own turf, averaging scoring over two goals per home game. A lot of their attacking prowess comes from talented Zicu but he should be playing today so I don’t see a great problem with that currently. Indeed, against his former club, the ex-Internazionale youngster should be more motivated than ever so I expect Poli Timisoara to shine today with him leading the team. Timisoara’s biggest problem is defending like idiots, unfortunately. Happily, they’re facing the only side on a par with them in this league that defends worse than they do so I’m happy to take a risk here.
Dinamo Bucharest have plenty of attacking power but as I mentioned above, they’re utterly clueless in defence. That level of cluelessness in defence won’t be helped by the absence of suspended goalkeeper Balgradean, who decided to come running out of his area against Victoria Branesti following Dinamo’s horrendous offside trap failure and then promptly karate kicked the opposing attacker about chest height. Needless to say that he didn’t stay on the field for very long. Dinamo have kept three clean sheets in their last twelve Liga gmes and their defensive record is so bad that the only side to concede more goals than they have this season that hasn’t already been relegated is newly-promoted Universitatea Cluj. Enough said?
Now, this game is far from straightforward as Dinamo theoretically need a point here to guarantee a UEFA Europa League place next season. However, I don’t see Steaua Bucharest winning at CFR Cluj anyway so I don’t envision that being a problem. The problem actually stems from the fact that these two clubs hate each other and thus we could see plenty of bloodshed here. Therefore, do approach it with caution! However, Poli Timisoara should be able to outscore Dinamo here if Zicu turns it on and I can’t imagine a better stage for him to do it on either.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win at 53/50.
AIK Solna vs Gefle – home win at 4/5.
I’ve criticised AIK Solna a lot over the past couple of years and I’ve been justified in doing so. However, I have to take my hat off to them for their enthusiastic displays so far this season in the Allsvenskan and the integrity they showed in signing a second striker named Bangura as the two Banguras are tearing the Allsvenskan apart at every conceivable opportunity. Their problem mid-season was arguably not scoring enough goals – problem solved! – and a slightly weak midfield but they’ve not shown any signs of that so far this season so I’ve no choice but to back them here. Despite having only ten men for a large period of their game against Helsingborg last match, they still domatined their superior opponents and should have won it by more goals. The dismissal of defender Johansson in that game means he misses today’s game through suspension, unfortunately, but they’ve got so much going forward at the moment that AIK’s defence isn’t an area that concerns me here. Four wins from four Allsvenskan home games whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game and conceding a goal once per every four home games is what concerns me, however, and in a good way! They’ve probably had easy home games though, right? Wrong. They’ve had bitter rivals IFK Goteborg, reigning champions Helsingborg, and the best Orebro side that there has been for some time so AIK are really putting themselves about at the moment. I’d hate to see what happens later in their campaign with little depth in the team, especially with so much reliance on their two Banguras, but for the present time, I really rate AIK!
Visitors Gefle have over-achieved this season in the sense that they’ve:
A. Scored at least one goal
B. Won more than one game
C. Not been relegated yet
Is that harsh? I don’t think so. They’re a very poor side with very little to offer in just about every area of the field. Their anti-football tactics are somewhat similar to AIK’s tactics of old but without the talented individuals. Gefle have scored three goals over their past five games in all competitions and have unsurprisingly won just one of those games, losing two out of their last three. Gefle have a lot of young players, to be fair to them – it can’t be easy for them to be in that position. However, as soon as they come of age, they move on, ala star striker Gerndt’s departure to Helsingborg in June 2010. They’ve done next to nothing to improve the squad pre-season, the squad that was barely good enough to stay in the division last season, and they’ve made no attempts to replace Gerndt with the faint hopes that the continually disappointing Dahlberg steps up to the plate.
For me, I think it’s finally time for Gefle to wave goodbye to the Allsvenskan. I’m amazed at some of their results this season but they surely can’t last with their current squad. The only comfort for Gefle can be that Syrianska Sodertalje are in the same division as them but then again, there are two automatic relegation places and not one so that won’t do them much good. Either way, travelling to face in-form AIK with two of the most on-fire strikers in the division lining up aganist them doesn’t bode well for the visitors. For me, the home win at 4/5 has good value today, especially as AIK have won this fixture for three out of the last four times that it’s been played.
Verdict: AIK Solna to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Levski Sofia, Sparta Prague, Nomme Kalju, Flora Tallinn, Spartak Moscow, Partizan Belgrade, Slovan Bratislava, Dukla Banska Bystrica, Real Madrid, Servette.
Recommended bets:
Jablonec, Real Madrid, and Sparta Prague at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre vs Atletico Lanus (6) 2-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Olimpo (6) 1-1
Atletico Huracan vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 1-1
Independiente vs Colon de Santa Fe (4) 0-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Neman Grodno (5) 1-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Brest (7) 2-0
Belshina Bobriusk vs Dnepr Mogilev (5) 1-0
FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (7) 2-1
Gomel vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-1
Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 0-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Avai (7) 2-0
Ceara vs Vasco da Gama (6) 1-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense (6) 2-1
Santos vs Internacional (5) both sides to score
Bulgarian A PFG:
Akademik Sofia vs Levski Sofia (9) 0-2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia (6) 2-1
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets Burgas (7) 1-0
Beroe vs Rakovski (7) 2-0
Minior Pernik vs Cherno More Varna (4) 1-1
Kaliakra vs Sliven (6) 2-1
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Litex Lovech (6) 0-1
Montana vs Slavia Sofia (5) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs Audax Italiano (7) over 2.5 goals
Union San Felipe vs Palestino (5) 1-1
Huachipato vs O’Higgins (6) 1-1
Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal (7) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 2-0
Envigado vs Deportivo Pereira (4) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Quindio (5) 1-0
America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
Atletico Huila vs Deportivo Cali (5) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 1-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Boyaca Chico (6) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Independiente Medellin (7) 2-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs NK Zagreb (5) 0-1
Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Istra 1961 (6) 1-1
Slaven Koprivnica vs Osijek (5) 1-0
Karlovac vs Sibenik (4) 1-1
Varteks Varazdin vs Inter Zapresic (5) 0-0
Rijeka vs Zadar (6) 2-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Split (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Slavia Prague (7) 2-0
Viktoria Plzen vs Banik Ostrava (4) 2-2
Marila Pribram vs Brno (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Slovacko vs Mlada Boleslav (4) 2-1
Ceske Budejovice vs Sigma Olomouc (6) 1-1
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice (7) 2-0
Hradec Kralove vs Slovan Liberec (6) 1-1
Usti nad Labem vs Sparta Prague (9) 0-2
Danish 1st Division:
AB Copenhagen vs Vejle (6)
Skive vs HB Koge (5) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs LDU Loja (6) 1-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Levadia Tallinn (5) 1-2
Viljandi vs Ajax Lasnamae (6) 2-1
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Sillamae Kalev (6) 2-2
Nomme Kalju vs Kuressaare (9) -1.5 handicap
Flora Tallinn vs Flora Paide (8) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu vs FC Lahti (6)
HiFK Helsinki vs PS Kemi Kings (4)
Jippo Joensuu vs OPS Oulu (5)
PK-35 Helsinki vs PoPa Pori (6)
KPV Kokkola vs FC Espoo (4)
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois (6) 1-0
Racing Club Lens vs Arles (5) 1-0
Olympique Lyonnais vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Valenciennes (7) 2-1
Montpellier HSC vs AS Monaco (6) 1-1
OGC Nice vs Lorient (5) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs LOSC Lille (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Stade Rennais vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (5) 2-1
Sochaux vs Saint-Etienne (7) 2-0
Toulouse vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 0-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE (5) 0-1
Gyori ETO FC vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 1-0
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs Galway United (7) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Piacenza vs Albinoleffe (4)
Reggina vs Ascoli (7)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Cittadella (7)
Crotone vs Grosseto (7)
Padova vs Livorno (5) at least one red card in this game
Pescara vs Novara (6)
Modena vs Portosummaga (6)
Frosinone vs Sassuolo (5)
Triestina vs Vicenza (4)
Japanese J-League:
Jubilo Iwata vs Avispa Fukuoka (7) 1-0
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Ventforet Kofu (7) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol (4) 1-1
Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata (7) 2-0
Vissel Kobe vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5) 1-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Klaipeda vs Banga Gargzdai (6) 1-0
Mazeikiai vs Siauliai (6) 0-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Guarani Asuncion vs General Caballero (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce (5) 1-1
Legia Warsaw vs Wisla Krakow (6) 1-2
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Lodz (5) over 2.5 goals
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom (5) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Ruch Radzionkow vs Dolcan Zabki (5)
Warta Poznan vs Kluczbork (7)
Odra Wodzislaw vs LKS Lodz (6)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Bogdanka Leczna (4)
Romanian Liga:
Targu Mures vs Universitatea Cluj (6) 2-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Vaslui (7) 0-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Brasov (5) 2-1
CFR Cluj vs Steaua Bucharest (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Victoria Branesti vs Gloria Bistrita (5) 0-1
Universitatea Craiova vs Gaz Metan Medias (5) 0-1
Poli Timisoara vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 2-1
Astra Ploiesti vs Otelul Galati (7) 1-1
Sportul Studentesc vs Unirea Urziceni (5) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk vs Zenit St.Petersburg (4) 1-1
Rostov-na-Donu vs Amkar Perm’ (7) 1-0
Dinamo Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) 2-0
Spartak Moscow vs FK Krasnodar (8) 2-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Borac Cacak vs Red Star Belgrade (7) 0-1
Spartak Subotica vs Smederevo (5) 1-1
OFK Belgrade vs BSK Borca (7) 1-0
Sevojno vs Metalac GM (7) 2-1
Hajduk Kula vs Javor Ivanjica (5) 0-0
Indija vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (7) 0-1
Rad Belgrade vs Jagodina (5) 2-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Cukaricki (10) -1.5 handicap
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Home United (6) over 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Zlate Moravce vs Kosice (5) 2-1
MSK Zilina vs DAC Dunajska Streda (5) 1-0
Slovan Bratislava vs Dubnica (8) 2-0
Dukla Banksa Bystrica vs Tatran Presov (8) 2-1
Nitra vs Spartak Trnava (4) 0-1
Ruzomberok vs Senica (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Rudar Velenje vs Nafta Lendava (6)
Triglav vs Gorica (4) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Domzale vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 1-1
Primorje vs Maribor (6) 0-1
Koper vs Celje (7) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Barcelona (6) 1-1
Real Madrid vs Almeria (8) 2-0
Hercules Alicante vs Sporting Gijon (5) 1-1
Osasuna vs Villarreal CF (7) 1-1
Real Sociedad vs Getafe (4) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Espanyol vs Sevilla CF (6) 2-2
Levante vs Real Zaragoza (4) 0-1
Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia CF (4) 2-1
Racing Santander vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1
Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid (4) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (7) 2-0
Recreativo de Huelva vs Alcorcon (6)
Real Betis Balompie vs Huesca (7)
Albacete vs Tenerife (4)
Ponferradina vs Cordoba (4)
Las Palmas vs Numancia (6) over 2.5 goals
Girona vs Barcelona II (6)
Salamanca vs Cartagena (5)
Celta de Vigo vs Elche (4)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Gefle (7) 2-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Yverdon Sport (7)
SC Kriens vs Wil (5)
Lausanne Sports vs Vaduz (7) over 2.5 goals
Locarno vs Delemont (6)
Lugano vs Wohlen (6)
FC Schaffhausen vs Stade Nyonnais (5)
Servette vs Chiasso (8)
Winterthur vs Biel-Bienne (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Bucaspor vs Kayserispor (5) 0-1
Ankaragucu vs Antalyaspor (5) 2-1
Bursaspor vs Genclerbirligi (7) 2-0
Gaziantepspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 1-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 1-0
Obolon Kiev vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) 0-1
Illichivets Mariupol vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 1-2
Volyn Lutsk vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 2-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava (7) 1-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (7) 2-1
Arsenal Kiev vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (5) 1-1
Zorya Lugansk vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (6) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs Bella Vista (6) 1-0
Miramar Misiones vs Liverpool Montevideo (4) 0-1
Danubio vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Prestatyn Town (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!