KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki
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Quick notice – there’ll be some changes on TFT over the summer. I’m going to get rid of some leagues and add some different leagues for varying reasons. The leagues that are going are either due to incessant match fixing or a lack of value. This is not a finalised list – there may be more to come – but the ones that are going are Italy’s Serie B, England’s League One and Two, France’s Ligue 2, Netherlands’ Eerste Divisie, and possibly Germany’s Bundesliga 2 with a sprinkling of South American leagues too, depending on how much time I have. The ones that are definitely coming in are the Czech Druha League, the Moldovan Divizia Nationala, and the Macedonian First League. All comments are welcome regarding the above information although bear in mind that my mind is unlikely to change as I’m a stubborn person!
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Veikkausliiga clash in central Finland between KuPS Kuopio and HJK Helsinki. KuPS aren’t as bad as their league placing suggests but they’re facing the best side in Finland today and I think they may be outdone.
KuPS interestingly claimed a 4-4 draw in Turku last match against Inter, which demonstrates their true potential. Will they attain it again today? Impossible to say as they’ve been hit-and-miss all season long. Realistically speaking, they’re a top five team for me, even without the departed Dudu. Nwakaeme is starting to fill his boots and with Udah and Williams providing the necessary support, KuPS have the foundation for a very solid attack. Ilo and Venelainen generally provide a lot of attacking presence too but neither have been particularly prominent so far this season, which is largely why KuPS have failed to deliver so far this season, in my view. Defensively, KuPS are still vulnerable and the fact that all four goals conceded against Inter Turku last match came from corners/crosses should concern them massively ahead of this game because HJK play a very expansive game. It has to be said that for all KuPS’ huffing and puffing against Inter Turku, all their goals came from Inter Turku playing a high line but not defending well enough with KuPS capitalising upon their defensive laxity with some of their chances being taken in a very clinical fashion, most notably Nwakaeme’s curling finish. KuPS do have a good side, it has to be said, but they’re vulnerable at the back and tempremental in attack so I’m going against them today.
However, I won’t go against them recklessly as that’s positively suicidal. HJK are the best side in Finland but KuPS can cause them problems on their day. Nonetheless, HJK are an absolute machine right now with twelve wins from their last thirteen games, beating the -1 asian handicap in nine of those twelve wins. They’ve been absolutely dominant in all of those games too, barring the defeat at IFK Mariehamn. It’s no surprise that they’re dominanting Finland, really – they’ve got two squads of players capable of winning this championship. Nobody else can even begin to emulate their strength in-depth and it really shows. The addition of Sadik in attack pre-season gives them much needed muscle and aerial prowess whereas Pukki is starting to fulfill his potential by taking his chances. HJK have been lethal down the flanks with Sorsa lighing up the Veikkausliiga, not to mention Mannstrom and even Bah when he drifts out there. Rafinha, Zeneli, Ring – all good midfielders, all playing their part in this team and that’s even without mentioning veteran attacker Litmanen! HJK are just a nightmare to defend against because they’re so quick and skillful on the flanks and that’s going to cause KuPS a lot of problems today. I’d definitely take Sadik to score anytime if you can find odds on it because KuPS cannot defend from wide positions!
Either way, I really fancy HJK to do well here. I’m going with the asian handicap rather than the european handicap because KuPS are a good side. However, the -1 asian handicap being priced at 9/10 interests me a lot today as the visitors have enough firepower and attacking threat to win this game by a couple of goals whilst the insurance side of it allows for KuPS showing up and causing problems themselves.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win with a -1 asian handicap at 9/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Fredrikstad vs Tromso – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
From what I’ve seen so far this season, there’s no doubt that Fredrikstad will avoid the drop. They’ve got great individual talent in Elyounoussi and Borges that can win them games and they’ve got a good squad cohesion which means that they rarely concede goals, especially with Estonian rock Piiroja at the heart of defence. Only Valerenga Oslo and today’s opponents Tromso have conceded less than newly-promoted Fredrikstad this season in the Eliteserien so you can see how hard they are to break through. Fredrikstad don’t score many because without their star twosome in attack, they really struggle to create and convert chances. However, they can produce and magic and win games and that’s enough for Fredrikstad. Either way, they’re a very impressive unit and they’re not easy to play against with their vociferous support behind them.
Tromso have sold defender Hogli to Club Brugge in Belgium and their watertight defence may finally start being exposed without him. It doesn’t help that they’ve sold him when their eyes are fixed on their UEFA Europa League commitments but that’s their decision, I suppose. They won 0-5 in Latvia last week against Daugava Daugavpils so they’re already through to the next round, realistically speaking. I doubt they’ll rest players for the return leg – it should really be the other way around. I fully expect Tromso to turn up with their first-team tonight to do what they always do away from home in the Eliteserien – defend solidly and take their chances. However, with leader Rushfeldt absent, Tromso’s attack is generally non-existant and that should be particularly evident against a rock-solid Fredrikstad defence. I don’t see the visitors scoring today, to be blunt!
I suppose the big question is whether the hosts can unlock the Tromso defence or not. With Hogli having moved on and Finnish veteran Koppinen a doubt, the possibility is there for Borges or Elyounoussi to make something happen. I’m not happy to take them to do so, however – they weren’t convincing against Haugesund last round so I’ll give the 1×2 market a miss here, even though the game is played on natural turf whereas Tromso use artificial turf at the Alfheim. I still think there’s enough strength with Regniussen holding things together at the back for Tromso for them to get a draw off the goal-shy hosts here so instead my attention goes toward under 2.5 goals because it’s a generous price at 4/5 when you consider that both sides are pretty unadventurous tactically.
Team news – Fredrikstad have doubts over Valencia whereas Tromso miss Rinde and Rushfeldt whilst having doubts over Koppinen.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Djurgarden vs Helsingborg – over 2.5 goals at evens.
This is my second over 2.5 goals call in Sweden this weekend – I must be mad!
However, I like this one a lot, I have to say. Djurgarden boss Magnus Pehrson has really inspired his side since he took over, steering them to four consecutive wins whilst they’ve bagged ten goals and shipped just one. They’re still a bit average at the back at times and their strikers are a bit average too but their midfield is quite excellent. Pehrson has Finnish international Perovuo back in his squad for today’s game, should he choose to utilise him, but it’s Sjolund and Hamalainen that do the damage for Djurgarden as both of them have plenty of pace and skill. It helps Djurgarden’s attack that Youssef has settled down quite well with big Igboananike because although they’re quite an average pairing, Djurgarden still need a presentable attack to compliment their fine midfield or it all goes to waste, which was particularly evident at the start of the season. However, Djurgarden look good under their new boss and I fancy them to cause Helsingborg problems tonight after such a good run of form and with only Ayuba absent.
Helsingborg just haven’t looked themselves lately. It’s not like them to concede five goals in their last two Allsvenskan games and fail to beat the likes of IFK Norrkoping away or GAIS Goteborg at home. They’re looking a bit uncertain at the back from time to time and I expect in-form Djurgarden to capitalise on that. However, I also expect lightning-quick Gerndt and fellow attackers Sundin and Jonsson to cause problems for Djurgarden’s susceptible defence today as they’re more than talented enough to do so. Unfortunately, Helsingborg miss Bouaouzan for this game and that could affect their performance overall, which is the last thing they need given how unpredictably they’ve played of late. Nonetheless, Helsingborg always have a goal or two in them, particularly in recent times, and they’re likely to concede here given the form of their hosts so over 2.5 goals looks logical here.
Historically, these two sides play a good game here in Stockholm with five out of the last six meetings here having gone over 2.5 goals. I’d not dare enter the 1×2 market because although Helsingborg are the better side, Djurgarden are riding the crest of a wave right now so that’s a big “avoid” for me. However, over 2.5 goals at evens floats my boat here – there should be plenty of goals here although I’d avoid it if the odds drop – I rarely find value in over 2.5 goals in Sweden’s Allsvenskan below evens!
Team news – Djurgarden miss Ayuba whereas Helsingborg miss Bouaouzan and Patronen.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Uruguay vs Peru (7) 2-0
Chile vs Mexico (6) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
FC Minsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (5) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 1-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) 1-2
KuPS Kuopio vs HJK Helsinki (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs FC Lahti (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Fredrikstad vs Tromso (5) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Albirex Niigata (6) 1-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden vs Helsingborg (5) 1-2
Swedish Superettan:
Brage vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!