Laval vs Bastia
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ligue 2 game between Laval and Bastia. Laval are having a good season so far and find themselves in fifth place in the table with a good chance of being promoted if they maintain their good start to their season. Visitors Bastia, however, will be lucky to stay in Ligue 2 with a nightmarish start leaving them bottom of the table with no light at the end of the tunnel.
Although Laval’s form of late has been somewhat questionable with just two wins in their past five games, they’ve been a force at home this season with just one defeat in ten games. They’ve not won as many home games as they’d have liked with four wins and five draws to complete their ten home games. However, they’re a good side and have proven so on various occasions already this season. A convincing 3-0 win at Tours last match did much to illustrate the point above because Tours are an excellent home side if nothing else. Laval have scored eight goals in their last five home games in Ligue 2 so they know how to find the net. Their problem of late has been conceding poor goals and drawing more games than they’ve been winning, which is a slight concern when backing them, naturally. However, the side they’re playing today should provide no opposition whatsoever so I’m confident that Laval will use some of their momentum to overcome them tonight.
Visitors Bastia are bottom of the table and their away form indicates just why that is. Ten defeats and one draw in eleven away games is relegation form and that’s where they’re heading if they don’t improve drastically. Their abysmal away form stems from the fact that they don’t score on the road – just three goals all season, in fact. As far as goals conceded go, irony dictates that Bastia have a decent defensive record on the road with sixteen goals conceded in eleven goals. Nonetheless, it doesn’t matter how many goals you concede if you’re not scoring and they’re certainly not scoring so they have issues. Bastia have lost three out of their last five games, winning twice along the way but their points always come at home. Bastia have conceded six goals in their last three away games so currently average conceding two goals per game – not a good record to take to a potent Laval side in desperate need of some consistency!
Ultimately, there’s a real mis-match in quality between these two sides and it really should show tonight. Laval find the net often enough to bag a couple in this game and Bastia aren’t good enough to match them so logic tells you that a home win is on the cards – I’m simply astounded at the good odds that you’ll get for it!
Verdict: Laval to win at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Dijon FCO vs Istres – home win at evens.
Hosts Dijon FCO have long been a home side in Ligue 2 although their statistics don’t reflect it as well as they should. They’ve only been beaten three times at home out of ten this season but they’ve only won three times too, which is partially why they’re lingering just outside of the drop zone currently. Dijon FCO haven’t had a good season so far and tend to find themselves in the shallow end of the “luck” pool but have started to come around of late. They’ve only lost one of their last three games and have claimed an emphatic 4-1 win at Tours and a hard-fought draw at home to league leaders Stade Malherbe de Caen. Dijon FCO are scoring goals at the moment – six in their last three – with an average of two goals per game so they’re certainly potent enough to win the game tonight. Their defence is unsteady but scoring more goals than your opponent tends to mean that you win the game in the world of logic and Dijon FCO are well-placed to outscore their opponents tonight!
Visitors Istres naturally play their part in this bet by being…well, shit, if I’m blunt. Life following promotion has been a nightmare for them and they’ve now slipped into the relegation zone and won’t make it back out without swift improvements. Their biggest problem is goalscoring, something they’ve done less than every other Ligue 2 side, including bottom club Bastia. It doesn’t help that Istres are one of the bigger conceding sides in the division either but without goals you’re not going anywhere! Istres have lost eight out of eleven away games this season, averaging conceding nearly two goals per game and scoring just five goals along the way, which averages out at less than a goal per every two games. Istres have mustered up just one goal in their last three games and generally look to struggle massively against each opponent that they face.
Ultimately, Istres’ away form is going to be their downfall. They’ve only scored in one out of their last six away games but have conceded eleven times. Whereas I can appreciate that Dijon FCO are a long way from the finished article, they’ve got enough ability within their ranks to do to Istres what most other Ligue 2 sides are doing at home and beat them.
Verdict: Dijon FCO to win at evens
Nantes vs Brest – away win at 2/1.
Nantes have really disappointed me following a great start to life in Ligue 2 following relegation from Ligue 1 last season. They were flying high but now find themselves with just one win in their past eleven games – the record simply isn’t good enough. They’ve lost seven out of those games and two of those were at home whereas Nantes were previously unbeaten at home. I wouldn’t be quite so disappointed had those defeats not occurred against under-achieving and out-of-form sides like Guingamp and Angers SCO. Nantes’ biggest problem of late is scoring goals, something that they’ve not managed to do in any of their last three games. Ultimately, Nantes are playing like a mid-table side that is out-of-form and that kind of side is always going to struggle against an in-form side like Brest.
Don’t get me wrong here – I don’t rate Brest as a better side than Nantes. However, they’re certainly looking better at the moment with Brest entering this game on the back of a run of eight Ligue 2 games without defeat, winning six of those games. Brest’s momentum is sky-high so I’m choosing to believe that their momentum will carry them over their average away form as far as wins go – just three wins in ten games despite being second in the table. Brest are the lowest conceding side in Ligue 2 away from home but they need to marry that statistic up with scoring goals. I don’t think Brest are good enough to do so currently but they’ve got the potential to reach that zone, that’s for sure. Four wins in their last five games is propelling Brest through just about everything at the moment as they look more like an efficient machine than an over-achieving team. Who can go against this machine at the moment? I’m not betting on anyone to do so, not whilst Brest have taken points from away trips to Metz, Dijon FCO, and Tours of late!
Overall, Nantes are an extremely capable side so I’m a tad hesitant to make this call but everything above suggests that the possibility is there for the away win and I’m happy to ride and see where we go – the odds are good enough to make it valuable!
Verdict: Brest to win at 2/1.
Metz vs Nimes – home win at 5/6.
I like that the bookies have underestimated Metz after their recent run of poor form – this pleases me immensely, in fact! Metz welcome back Omotoyossi from the African Nations after his stint with Benin and he’ll be a danger up front for them again. I rate this guy a lot although his goalscoring tally doesn’t always tell the whole story! Metz are an extremely capable side already, let alone when he’s in the side, and they’re even more capable playing at home. The reason the bookies have “doubted” the odds is because of no wins in two home games but let’s not forget who Metz were playing – league leaders Stade Malherbe de Caen (who beat Metz due to a last minute goal) and high-flying machine Brest. What we tend to find with Metz is that they beat the vast majority of sides that come here, sides that aren’t good enough to match them, and Nimes are one of those sides despite their deceptive league placing. Metz have already won seven out of eleven home games in Ligue 2 this season and are one of the lowest conceding sides when playing on their own turf, conceding just seven times along the way. Metz are not a massively potent side – they’re simply an efficient side. Their recent form of no wins in four doesn’t look good because they’ve not won at least one of their last two home games, which is unusual for them, but they tend not to get anythingt from their away games which is why the two statistics combined look so damning! Ultimately, Metz are a very good side, particularly at home – don’t underestimate them! They’re one of the best sides in the division, in my opinion!
Visitors Nimes are flying high but they’re really not that good a side don’t be fooled! They’ve won four consecutive games so their momentum is tremendous at the moment – that has to be respected from any perspective – but who’ve they beaten? Dijon at home, Bastia at home, Vannes away, and Istres at home. I respect that they’ve won those games but to be honest – I’d expect any side in their position currently to win those games too. Lets examine their games against the harder sides or on the harder trips in Ligue 2 this season – defeat at Nantes, defeat at Dijon FCO, defeat at Ajaccio, defeat at Angers SCO. Nimes have done well this season, make no mistake, but they’re not winning the tough games en mass! They’ve been beaten six times in eleven away games this season – is that really a record fit for a side in third place in Ligue 2? “No” is the answer! Nimes are over-achieving and fair play to them for their valiant efforts but I expect them to get taught a lesson by a wounded and very able Metz side tonight.
Verdict: Metz to win at 5/6.
Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC Berlin – lay Werder Bremen at 8/5.
I don’t know what’s going on at Werder Bremen but there’s something very wrong indeed! They’ve not win in their past six Bundesliga games, losing their last five consecutively. Fair play – only three of those have occurred since their return from the winter break but it’s still not good enough for a club of their size and stature. They’ve at least started scoring goals since their return from the winter break but the fact remains that they’re a shambles defensively with even Borussia Moenchengladbach outscoring them in their last game. Bluntly – Werder Bremen are not defending well enough at the moment and have conceded twelve goals in their last six Bundesliga games, an average of two goals per game. I don’t think anyone here could deny the actual ability of Werder Bremen but that ability is not a lot of use to them if they’re losing all of their games – they need results, even if they’re playing badly!
Most people would view this game as the game where Werder Bremen can get their season back on track and maybe they’re right! However, I choose to take the approach that Werder’s run will continue tonight. Why? Well, Hertha BSC Berlin are starting to look a bit more like their old selves – very difficult to beat. They’re in the relegation zone in the Bundesliga after an awful start to their campaign and they deserve to be there currently, make no mistake. However, they’re not doing badly of late – they’ve only lost one out of their last five games. They’ve not conceded in any of their last three games, which is impressive enough as it is, let alone when you consider one of those games was an even more impressive 3-0 victory at Hannover 96. Anyone that knows football in Germany knows that Hertha are a lot better than their league placing indicates and it only takes a spark to ignite that ability and I think they’ve found their spark.
I’m casting statistics about home and away games aside for this game (although Werder’s home form is poor anyway!) – I’m focusing solely on the momentum and ability sides of things, which is dangerous but worth the risk, in my opinion. Werder have a good record at home against Hertha but I think it’s time for that to change. With Werder conceding heavily and often, I can see Hertha scoring tonight and defending well enough to at least take a draw, thus making the bet of laying Werder potentially good value in my books!
Verdict: Lay Werder Bremen at 8/5.
Recommended bet – a French Ligue 2 treble with Metz, Laval, and laying Nantes at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs North Queensland Fury (7) 2-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Once Caldas Manizales vs Envigado (7) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Newcastle United vs Cardiff City (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Inter Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Angers SCO (6)
Laval vs Bastia (8)
Chateauroux vs Clermont Foot (6)
Dijon FCO vs Istres (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Strasbourg (6)
Guingamp vs Tours (5)
Nantes vs Brest (5)
Metz vs Nimes (6)
Le Havre vs Vannes OC (7)
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs Hertha BSC Berlin (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
St.Pauli vs Karlsruher SC (8)
Arminia Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth (6)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Hansa Rostock (7)
Italian Serie B:
Torino vs Brescia (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Jaguares (5) 1-1
Queretaro vs Guadalajara (7) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs NAC Breda (5) 1-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs RBC Roosendaal (8)
Den Bosch vs Veendam (6)
Emmen vs Oss (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Volendam (5)
Helmond Sport vs Zwolle (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht ’90 (4)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (8)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Omniworld (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Tampines Rovers (7) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK vs Genclerbirligi (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs The New Saints (8) 1-2
Port Talbot Town vs Haverfordwest County (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!