Lazio vs AC Milan
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie A clash in Rome between Lazio and AC Milan. Both sides drastically under-achieved last season and as a result, both sides have undergone some heavy renovations and I think it’s fair to say that both sides look better for it too.
However, my call today is to side with Lazio. It’s a strange one for me because I’ve never been an advocate for dull Lazio and their droll displays. Then again, I’m not here to pick winners based on quality but on statistics so that’s why I’m overlooking the boredom of watching Lazio in favour of value here tonight.
Lazio have started the season well with two wins from three games. They lost their opening game at Sampdoria, which is an acceptable result. Since then, they’ve really bucked their ideas up by winning emphatically at home to a meager Bologna side and impressively winning at a good Fiorentina side last match so momentum certainly favours the Romans today. Lazio don’t often struggle for quality but they do tend to struggle with consistency and potency, two things that they appear to have remedied this year, although how long that continues for is anyone’s guess considering the bizarre ways of this outfit. Nonetheless, it cannot be denied that the likes of Matuzalem and Ledesma bring a much-needed muscle to this Lazio side and with ex-Sao Paulo playmaker Hernanes pulling the strings for the swift Mauro Zarate or towering Tommaso Rocchi in attack, this Lazio side finally appears to have some rhythm. Their defence looks a tad more vulnerable this year without the departed Cribari (SSC Napoli) and Kolarov (Manchester City) as Garrido isn’t really a suitable replacement for Kolarov (Spanish players never fit in well in Italy as Gaizka Mendieta, Javi Moreno, Jose Mari etc. etc. can all vouch for) and as Lazio haven’t really replaced Cribari substantially, although that’s possibly a good thing as Lazio look to attack rather than defend this year. I have a lot more respect for Lazio with some shrewd signings like experienced Australian midfielder Mark Bresciano over the summer and their overall footballing style is now much more tolerable, although unquestionably more suicidal defensively, so I’ll give Lazio their chances tonight.
A lot of people (seemingly including the bookies) are becoming blinded by AC Milan’s big names and it’s becoming a bit confusing, really. I’ll be the first to admit that the dynamic combination of the talented Ibrahimovic and the Brazilian threesome assisting him of Robinho, Ronaldinho, and Pato is certainly mouth-watering as a football fan. However, if you think that means that AC Milan are guaranteed a good season then I’d strongly urge you all to think again. Berlusconi has been ruining this side for years with his stubborn manner of not letting anyone buy the club and thus the club have very limited transfer funds, rapidly ageing players, and little talent coming through their academy. Seriously, AC Milan are a dying club and unless something is done rapidly, I doubt you’ll see them in European competition in a couple of years time. This side may have impressed the critics with a 4-0 demolition of Lecce on the opening day of the season but since then they’ve failed to win at Cesena and at home to Catania so why should that change tonight? They’re facing a very resilient Lazio side that will attack them and AC Milan absolutely hate that at the moment. Their side has understandably not gelled fully yet and it’s shown en mass too – this side is not what it was. Nonetheless, to doubt the individual quality of the Rossoneri is nothing short of stupidity; they have some of the finest individuals in the world. However, age is a fickle foe and pacey sides are starting to get the better of AC Milan nowadays so I think they’ll struggle here. Lazio are well-organised in midfield and attack at least, the two areas where AC Milan have struggled, so if Lazio play this game the way I expect them to then a home win looks on the cards tonight, although AC Milan’s attack is rather frighteningly capable of causing problems of their own tonight.
Interestingly enough, Lazio haven’t beaten AC Milan at home since 1998 but I’d argue that Lazio look better than they have done in recent years and AC Milan look more susceptible than ever with their players ageing rapidly and thus making the team less mobile. It should be a tight game as it usually is between these two sides but I feel there’s value on a Lazio win with draw no bet with the above in mind.
Team news – AC Milan miss Ambrosini and Pato for this game whilst Lazio have doubts over the fitness over Rocchi, Garrido, and Matuzalem, but other than that have no confirmed absences.
Verdict: Lazio to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sport Huancayo vs Defensor Sporting – home win at 21/20.
I really didn’t know which way to go with this one because of varying factors. As you may or may not know, Uruguayan visitors Defensor Sporting bizarrely won the first leg of this tie 9-0 as Sport Huancayo demonstrated their lack of continental experience on an extreme level. Since then, their manager has been dismissed and the club are in disarray. Atypically, you’d look at taking the away side in this situation but this is South America, home of the bizarre, so let’s be a bit more streetwise here. Defensor Sporting don’t need to do anything at all in Peru tonight because of the first leg result and let’s face it – at approximately 3200 metres above sea level with nothing to play for, you’re not going to be at your most energetic. This kind of altitude is an absolute nightmare to play at and that in itself gives the hosts the advantage here. My problem is whether the hosts will crawl back into their shells or come out fighting to gain at least a little respect. If Sport turn up tonight, I thoroughly expect them to win the game, whatever happens – the visitors aren’t good at the back and don’t need to do anything here. However, if they sulk in a corner than the flambuoyant Uruguayans could take an atypically unprecedented draw or even a win here if the altitude doesn’t defeat them so I’m really rather unsure. However, given the motivation factor and the general pride of the South Americans, I’m siding with the home side at high altitude as the odds are decent enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Sport Huancayo to win at 21/20.
San Jose vs Atletico Huila – home win at 11/10.
Did someone mention…altitude advantage? Enter San Jose, who play in Oruro, Bolivia, which stands at approximately 3700 metres above sea level and let me assure you – there’s no way the Colombian visitors will even be breathing during this game at that altitude! Impressively, San Jose claimed a draw in Colombia in the first leg, something which I gave them little chance of attaining due to the altitude drop and a general lack of quality in comparison to Atletico Huila. However, Atletico demonstrated their lack of experience on the continent by failing to finish off their opponents and effectively sealing their doom in this competition barring a miracle because nobody wins at this height barring the hosts, generally speaking. Quality means nothing at this height and I thoroughly expect that to show tonight. San Jose are no great side but they do score goals whereas Colombians are generally poor travellers and don’t score enough goals. If that wasn’t bad enough, Colombians tend to lose their rags quicker than other South American nations which is why we tend to see more red cards in Colombia and for Colombian sides on the continent than for any other nation/team. Make no mistake – this is a nightmarish away game for any South American side, let alone an inexperienced one like Atletico, and I expect San Jose to take advantage of that tonight. Given that the hosts aren’t particularly good, I’m not going to take the home win at less than 11/10 but at these odds, there should be some value here on altitude alone.
Verdict: San Jose to win at 11/10.
Goias vs Atletico Goianiense – home win at 6/5.
The odds are surprisingly good on Goias winning this relegation battle with Atletico Goianiense and I’m not entirely sure why. The fear of the drop bites everyone around now which is why both of these sides are playing better than they did earlier in the season. However, Goias have been particularly good of late with no defeats in four games, winning their last two home games consecutively whilst scoring seven times along the way. They’ve claimed an impressive draw at Internacional along the way so momentum is strong for the hosts at the moment and Goias are bizarrely finding the net on a regular basis so they have to be given a chance tonight. Striker Rafael Moura is finally starting to find his scoring boots and Goias are finding wins easier to come by as a result and thus should prove a tough opponent for Atletico Goianiense tonight. The visitors are scoring goals themselves but they’ve peaked a little early in the race to the end of the season and are starting to slump by conceding far too many goals. They’ve leaked ten goals in five games and they’ve lost three of those games as a result. They’ve lost their last two games consecutively, including a particularly depressing 2-1 defeat at home to Atletico Paranaense, who don’t travel well, so all is not well in the Goianiense camp currently. They’re not the kind of side to lie down and die here but their defending tends to allow that type of stance to stand anyway. Only Atletico Paranense can match Atletico Goianiense’s terrible record of eight defeats in eleven away games in Serie A this season and I don’t see that improving tonight with both sides desperately needing points and the hosts looking far more impressive than the newly-promoted Atletico. This should be a hotly-contested and tight game but for me, there’s too much value on the home win to ignore as the visitors simply cannot defend.
Verdict: Goias to win at 6/5.
AIK Solna vs Kalmar – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Kalmar at 2/1 to win this game? Seriously? AIK have lost a lot of playing and non-playing staff this season and are deservedly near the drop zone as a result and I’ve seen little to suggest that they can trouble Kalmar today. Kalmar don’t travel well, admittedly, but they’re still a better side than AIK currently so I’m a tad surprised by these odds. Kalmar haven’t lost on their last three visits here, winning once and drawing twice. Kalmar haven’t looked the same since the Elm brothers departed but they’re still a well-organised side and should prove a handful for a demoralised and impotent AIK Solna side today. Kalmar have won two consecutive games leading into this game so they at least have some momentum to bring into this game although their record of three consecutive away defeats in the Allsvenskan doesn’t comfort me much here, although I’d hastily point out that two of those games were against two very good sides – Elfsborg Boras and IFK Goteborg respectively – so it’s perhaps a tad harsh to judge. AIK won their last game in fortuitous fashion but I’m still not convinced. They’re not an easy side to score against but they offer so little in front of goal that I can’t consider them seriously here. The like of Santos and Mendes in attack for Kalmar can create something from nothing in this game but when you look at AIK’s team, you struggle to find their match winners because there aren’t any. AIK still aren’t mugs but I don’t see them winning this game today whereas I do think Kalmar have a better chance of winning this game than the bookies do so my call is the away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Verdict: Kalmar to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Goteborg – home win at evens.
Ah, how we all love the artificial turf at the Boras Arena! Elfsborg are a good side but artificial turf gives them a massive home advantage and has played a big part in IFK losing their last three visits here consecutively but winning their last three home games against Elfsborg consecutively too. Elfsborg aren’t the best side in Sweden (although they’re not far off, to be fair) and yet still boast a phenomenally strong home record of eight wins and three draws from eleven home games whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per game. Their pitch plays a big part in that advantage as few other sides can play here competently so Elfsborg already have an advantage here over IFK. Elfsborg have some good players but their most impressive has to be Denni Avdic in attack, who has already scored eighteen times in twenty-two games this season and looks set to move at the end of the Allsvenskan season. Elfsborg also have a lot of support from midfield with the likes of experienced Anders Svensson and arising Johan Larsson, not to mention ex-IFK Goteborg midfielder Martin Ericsson, so Elfsborg aren’t simply a one-man team although I do think it’s fair to say that they don’t offer the same threat in front of goal without Avdic. No defeats in two games (including a good draw at in-form Trelleborg) gives Elfsborg some momentum to bring into this game today and with the above information in mind, I fancy their chances.
IFK Goteborg are and have always been a good Allsvenskan side; that’s never been in doubt. Their over-reliance on the ever-threatening Tobias Hysen has been highlighted an awful lot this season and because he’s not performed to the same high standards as last year (partially due to injury), we’ve rarely seen the true IFK. IFK have won three consecutive games ahead of their trip to Boras but I’ve not been impressed with any of their wins as they’re games I’d simply expect them to win against impotent and poor quality sides. IFK’s players tend to be too young or too old and the cohesion between the two is lacking, particularly in attack. IFK are at a stage whereby one player (Hysen) carries them as they desperately try to rebuild so I don’t fancy their chances here. They’ve already lost five out of eleven on the road because they average scoring just over a goal per away game, which really isn’t enough. Only Trelleborg in the top ten in the Allsvenskan have scored less on the road than IFK have this season and it’s proving to be a real thorn in their side. IFK have struggled in Boras in the past when they’ve had better sides available to them so I really don’t rate their chances tonight.
It takes a monumental effort to get a result at the Boras Arena and even then you need a lot of luck too. IFK have been short of both this season, not to mention goals, so they should struggle here. Elfsborg are always strong at home for the reasons mentioned above and if Avdic turns up then I fully expect an Elfsborg win tonight. The odds on this game are just a shade too generous so my call is the home win in this game tonight.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Club Brugge, Anderlecht, Cruzeiro, Universidad de Chile, Chelsea, TPS Turku, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, SSC Napoli, Barcelona, Orebro.
Recommended bets:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea, and Elfsborg Boras at 3/1.
Cruzeiro, Goias, and Universidad de Chile at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudameriana:
Sport Huancayo vs Defensor Sporting (6) over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys (7) 2-0
San Jose vs Atletico Huila (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Asian Champions League:
Pohang Steelers vs Zob Ahan (6) 2-1
Suwon Bluewings vs Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma (4) 1-1
Al Gharafa vs Al Hilal (6) 1-1
Al Shabab vs Jeonbuk Motors (6) 1-0
Baltic League:
Nomme Kalju vs FK Ventspils (7) 0-2
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Newcastle Jets (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Wacker Innsbruck (4) 1-1
SV Mattersburg vs Wiener Neustadt (5) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs Salzburg (6) 1-1
SV Ried vs Rapid Vienna (7) 1-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Eupen (8) 2-0
Standard de Liege vs Charleroi (7) 2-1
Zulte-Waregem vs Germinal Beerschot (6) 1-0
Lokeren vs AA Gent (6) 1-2
Kortrijk vs Westerlo (7) 1-0
Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge (7) 2-0
Lierse SK vs Anderlecht (8) over 2.5 goals
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Guarani (6) 1-0
Gremio Prudente vs Palmeiras (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Cruzeiro vs Ceara (8) 2-0
Goias vs Atletico Goianiense (6) 2-0
Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo (5) 1-1
Santos vs Corinthians (5) 1-1
Gremio vs Flamengo (7) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs O’Higgins (8) 2-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) under 2.5 goals
English League Cup:
Chelsea vs Newcastle United (8) 2-0
Aston Villa vs Blackburn Rovers (5) 1-1
Scunthorpe United vs Manchester United (7) 1-2
Wigan Athletic vs Preston North End (6) both sides to score
Liverpool vs Northampton Town (5) both sides to score
West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester City (6) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku vs AC Oulu (8) over 2.5 goals
HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Tampere United vs FC Honka Espoo (5) over 2.5 goals, both sdies to score
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (3) 1-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Kaiserslautern (8) over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV vs VfL Wolfsburg (5) 1-1
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs St.Pauli (5) 2-1
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 (4) 1-0, draw no bet
Nurnberg vs VfB Stuttgart (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld (5)
MSV Duisburg vs Augsburg (6) over 2.5 goals
1860 Munich vs Erzgebirge Aue (6) over 2.5 goals
Osnabruck vs Union Berlin (4)
Ingolstadt vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (6) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Brescia vs AS Roma (4) 1-2
Cagliari vs Sampdoria (5) 1-1
Catania vs Cesena (7) 1-1
Genoa vs Fiorentina (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Internazionale vs Bari (6) under 2.5 goals
Lazio vs AC Milan (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Lecce vs Parma (5) 0-0
Bologna vs Udinese (6) 0-0
SSC Napoli vs Chievo Verona (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Etoile (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona vs Sporting Gijon (8) -1.5 handicap
Real Zaragoza vs Hercules Alicante (4) 1-1
Almeria vs Levante (5) 1-0
Valencia CF vs Atletico Madrid (6) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Kalmar (5) 0-1
GAIS Goteborg vs Halmstad (6) 1-1
Orebro vs Gefle (8) 2-0
Elfsborg Boras vs IFK Goteborg (6) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
St.Gallen vs Young Boys Bern (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!