Le Havre vs AC Ajaccio
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ligue 2 encounter between Le Havre and AC Ajaccio. Recently-relegated Le Havre haven’t been overly convincing lately with just two wins in five games but remain a class above their visitors. Island-dwelling AC Ajaccio have a reputation for being one of the most defensive sides in Ligue 2 and will look to prove why that is tonight.
Hosts Le Havre have enjoyed a large portion of success since relegation as you’d expect and this is in no small part due to their home form. They’ve won four out of their six home games, scoring ten goals in the process. Le Havre’s last home game saw them comprehensively dispose of Ligue 2 favourites Nantes by winning 4-0. Although Le Havre lost their last game away to Arles, Le Havre are already aware of how good they can be and will look to prove it yet again at home tonight.
Only league leaders Stade Malherbe de Caen have conceded less goals this season than AC Ajaccio, which perfectly illustrates how the visitors play their football; defensively. With this impressive naturally comes the other side of the coin – the fact that they’ve only scored more goals than the six sides currently at the bottom of the table. I’ve no doubt in my mind whatsoever that AC Ajaccio will look to put men behind the ball today and simply steal a goal if possible. A draw here is a very good result for AC Ajaccio because they’re simply not good enough to outplay Le Havre – period!
Given that Le Havre are a class above AC Ajaccio and tend to enjoy scoring goals at home, it’s hard to overlook the clear ability that they have to win this game. AC Ajaccio will park the bus in front of goal and hope for the best, something that they are very good at. However, I’m backing Le Havre to break through at least once and if they do that then they should win this game comfortably.
Verdict: Le Havre victory at 3/4.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SV Ried vs SV Mattersburg – home win with -1.75 handicap at 8/5.
SV Ried impressive me massively by winning at Sturm Graz last match for two reasons. One reason is because Sturm Graz are a notoriously strong defensive side and the other is because SV Ried aren’t very good on the road. However, one thing that SV Ried are good at is winning at home, an attribute commonly associated with them over the past few years. They’ve already won five out of seven home games this season with their two failures being against two of the biggest Austrian sids, only losing one of those games. They average scoring over two goals per game at home and with two consecutive wins under their belt, you can only feel that they’ll win this game, and win it convincingly!
SV Mattersburg are a presentable side at best but much like SV Ried, they play their best football at home. However, SV Mattersburg are considerably worse when playing away from home as is indicated by their six defeats in eight away games whilst seeing their goalscoring sink lower than any other team (although it is matched by newly-promoted Wiener Neustadt. Mattersburg also have the unfortunate record of conceding two goals per game whilst playing away from home. My only concern for this bet is that SV Mattersburg have won two consecutive games to give them strong momentum but frankly they’re facing a better side and it really should show tonight.
Verdict: SV Ried to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 8/5.
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk – under 2.5 goals at 11/8.
Not many games between these two sides go under 2.5 goals so be aware that this does carry some risk in it! However, I’m going to doggedly stick with my bet here because I believe it contains value. Anderlecht are vying with Club Brugge to play the best football in Belgium currently which is why Anderlecht and Club Brugge currently possess first and second place in the Eerste Klasse respectively. Anderlecht are really seizing the moment currently however with six Eerste Klasse wins in a row. They’ve won six out of eight home games this season, conceding less goals than any other side and scoring more goals at home than any other side barring Zulte-Waregem. It’s not even a question in my mind that Anderlecht will win this game – they simply will. However, they’re facing a stubborn defence and Anderlecht don’t average over two goals scored per home game, hence this bet.
Visitors Kortrijk are an odd side, capable of derailing the best sides one week and then losing to the worst the following week. Kortrijk’s philosophy is to stop sides scoring against them, something they enjoy considerable success with as no side in the Eerste Klasse has conceded less goals on the road than they have. It’s somewhat unnecessary for me to point out that Kortrijk don’t score many goals for obvious reasons but their record of one win, one defeat, and five draws away from home this perfectly illustrates just why I think this bet has some value.
Anderlecht really should win this game but they’re playing a very stubborn defence so I think they’re going to struggle unless they score early. I’m banking on Kortrijk not scoring in this game for my bet to be successful but I can’t see any other handicaps for this particular bet so taking under 2.5 goals looks a good bet to me so fingers crossed that this game goes under 2.5 goals like it did in the last meeting between these two sides.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/8.
Dijon FCO vs Strasbourg – home win at 11/10.
Now unbeaten in their last three games, Dijon FCO carry considerable momentum into their game with struggling Strasbourg. Dijon FCO have long been a recognised “home side” with the majority of their points coming at home and usually totally outweighing their away points. Dijon have already won three of their six home games this year, drawing once and losing twice, which isn’t bad when you consider that they’re just sixth from bottom of Ligue 2. Impressively, only a handful of sides have scored more Ligue 2 goals at home than Dijon FCO which puts them in good shape for this game.
Strasbourg have been very unfortunate this season but as a tipster and punter myself, it’s my job to be the vulture and take advantage of another person’s disadvantage. Strasbourg are yet to win away from home in seven games, losing four and drawing three times. They’ve conceded rather a lot of goals considering their ability and aren’t scoring often enough. Although Strasbourg won their last game, it was their first win in four attempts, losing two along the way. Although the visitors have a very good squad and should be at the other end of the table at this stage of the season, Strasbourg are still finding life hard and Dijon is not the place to take your woes for you shall receive no sympathy there!
This should be a closely-fought game between two low-scoring sides but I think that the home advantage and momentum will play a big part here against a demoralised Strasbourg, thus leading to a home win tonight.
Verdict: Dijon FCO to win at 11/10.
Top Oss vs Excelsior – away win at evens.
Having now lost four consecutive games, Top Oss are now bruised and battered ahead of the visit of high-flying Excelsior. Top Oss’ home form is decent at best but their low morale coupled with their poor quality level leaves them struggling ahead of the visit of a far better side than they are. Only Eindhoven, Haarlem, Volendam, and Stormvogels Telstar have conceded more goals at home than Top Oss this season and that record doesn’t look likely to change against a tough opponent tonight. It also doesn’t help that only RBC Roosendaal and bottom-placed Emmen have scored less home goals than Top Oss, something else that is unlikely to change tonight.
Excelsior are finally back where they should be after a slow Eerste Divisie start. They’ve now won three out of their last four games and carry substantial momentum into this game tonight. Excelsior’s away form has been inconclusive thus far, which atypically would concern me in a game like this, but they’re facing a massively out-of-form and demoralised host so I find it hard to take too much concern from this. Excelsior are the full-throttle kind of side that could possibly tear Top Oss apart, the kind of side that you really don’t want to face with such an absence of form and morale, which is something I’m banking on in tonight’s game.
Realistically, the away win here boasts some good value with all of the above in mind so it’s certainly one of my tips of the day.
Verdict: Excelsior to win at evens.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan – away win at 6/5.
Although Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in their past three games, it’s a record that I dismiss with somewhat ease as the hosts have faced opponents around them in the Ekstraklasa table. The momentum gained in these games will do them good but their actual ability won’t improve because of it, something that I thoroughly expect to be exposed by a very talented Lech Poznan.
Visitors Lech Poznan have been unconvincing away from home this season but still boast a better side than newly-promoted Zaglebie Lubin. Lech have actually drawn their last three away games but a convincing home win against high-flying Ruch Chorzow in their last game should have done wonders for their momentum. Although I expect Zaglebie Lubin to put up a feisty display and cause Lech Poznan to have a tough game, it’s very difficult for me to envision anything but a large class difference making all the difference between these two sides, particularly when a side like Lech can call upon lethal strikers like Lewandowski to bail them out should they need to.
Although Lech’s away form of late has been quite average, they’re still a much better side and have everything in their favour to ensure that they win this game tonight.
Verdict: Lech Poznan to win at 6/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Rosario Central vs Atletico Tucuman (8) over 2.5 goals
Independiente vs Huracan (7) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs SV Mattersburg (8) -1.75 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Vienna II vs Gratkorn (6) over 2.5 goals
Wacker Innsbruck vs St.Polten (7)
Austria Lustenau vs Lustenau (6) at least one red card in this game
Hartberg vs Dornbirn (4)
Salzburg II vs First Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk (8) under 2.5 goals
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Oostende vs Dender (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Sliven (8) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Bastia vs Brest (6)
Dijon FCO vs Strasbourg (6)
Guingamp vs Arles (8)
Istres vs Vannes OC (7)
Laval vs Sedan-Ardennes (7)
Tours vs Angers SCO (6)
Le Havre vs AC Ajaccio (8) under 2.5 goals
Nantes vs Chateauroux (7)
Nimes vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6)
German Bundesliga:
VFL Bochum vs Koln (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher vs Koblenz (5)
Alemannia Aachen vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (7)
FSV Frankfurt vs Hansa Rostock (7)
Greek B Ethniki:
Ethnikos Piraeus vs Rhodos (8)
Italian Serie B:
Salernitana vs Gallipoli (7)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven (8) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Zwolle vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (5)
De Graafschap vs Haarlem (8)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Go Ahead Eagles (6) draw no bet
Emmen vs Eindhoven (6)
Omniworld vs Veendam (6)
Top Oss vs Excelsior (7)
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch (6)
MVV Maastricht vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Volendam (6)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Fortuna Sittard (7)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Warsaw vs Polonia Bytom (6) 1-0
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan (7) 1-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs Vitoria Guimaraes (7) 0-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Galatasaray (6) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (7)
Newi Cefn Druids vs Welshpool Town (5) 1-1
Llanelli vs Aberystwyth Town (6) 2-1
The New Saints vs Caersws (9) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!