Le Havre vs Bastia
FreeLe Havre have severely disappointed lately with just one win in their past nine games. Their only win during that time was a fortuitous victory over an abysmal Istres side so I think it’s fair to say that Le Havre are not playing anywhere near their best currently. Le Havre have drawn at home to Tours and Dijon FCO, and even losing at home to Vannes OC so even their usually reliable home form is rapidly disappearing. They’re a very capable side, make no mistake, but they’ve now won just seven home games in thirteen attempts, which isn’t really enough for a club of their potential. Le Havre reached the bottom of their bottle last match as they were crushed 4-0 at a goal-shy Laval so Le Havre’s morale is virtually non-existant. We all know how good Le Havre can be but they’re simply not showing it so the time looks ripe for taking advantage of it.
Bastia are still bottom of the table but they’re playing much better than they have been this season. It may be a little too late for them to save their Ligue 2 status, who knows? However, they’re unbeaten in their last three games so they’re putting up a damn good fight! If you look at Bastia’s away form this season then you’ll definitely be put off this bet as they’ve lost eleven out of fourteen away games. However, what is swaying me is not only their convincing displays in recent times but their newfound ability to score goals. They’ve scored eleven goals in their last seven games and have only lost twice during that run with each side needing to score at least two goals to beat them. Basia enter this game on the back of an emphatic 3-0 win at home against Chateauroux so confidence is rising and belief is returning. Bastia haven’t had a poor defensive record on the road this season. Don’t get me wrong here – it’s not great, far from it, but it’s average. Their problem has been scoring goals, something that they’re now doing. They’ve scored five goals in their last four away games and have only lost two of those games so underestimating Bastia here looks foolish, to be honest.
Le Havre are 4/6 to win this game. I can understand that given the quality gap but their horrendous run of form, their atrocious defending, and their lack of composure makes me feel that an organised, motivated, and driven Bastia side can get at least a draw from this game, particularly with their rather potent run of late.
Verdict: Lay Le Havre at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
First Vienna vs SCR Altach – away win at 5/6.
First Vienna are teetering on the edge of the relegation zone but have shown signs of improvement following their return from the winter break. Rapid Vienna’s second string have beaten Hartberg and lost to Austria Lustenau in the Liga 1 since returning but now face a very difficult SCR Altach side. First Vienna have been far from dominant at home this season with just three wins in nine games. They might be in a better position had they not lost the remaining six home games instead of drawing some of them but their all-or-nothing tactics appear mandatory in their minds. First Vienna’s biggest flaw is not scoring enough goals at home. They’ve managed to score just eleven goals in nine home games whilst conceding an average of two goals per game. Any person with an ounce of logic will tell you that this side will lose their average home game and I expect that to be the case today.
There aren’t many sides in the Liga 1 that have a significant quality difference in comparison to the others but SCR Altach are one of those sides. Relegated from the Bundesliga last season, Altach initially struggled to adapt but are now looking rather ominous with twelve wins in twenty games, lying just one point behind league leaders Admira Wacker. SCR Altach used the winter break to their advantage to bring in the likes of hispanic duo Cabrera and Brenes. They also bolstered their attacking option with the signing of Harry Unverdorben and now look strong favourites to regain their place in the Bundesliga next season, in my opinion. Again, rather ominously, SCR Altach have won both games since returning from the winter break and are yet to concede a goal whilst doing so. They were already one of the better sides in the division, particularly on the road with six wins in ten games, but they now look even more threatening to their opponents.
There is a big class difference between these two sides as well as a big difference in potency. Altach have got more than enough in their arsenal to win this game comfortably and I’ll be surprised if they don’t, frankly.
Verdict: SCR Altach to win at 5/6.
Tranmere Rovers vs Hartlepool United – home win at 11/10.
Tranmere Rovers have had a season to forget but this has resulted in most people forgetting just what they are capable of. This side is very much capable of competing for a play-off place at the very least and that fact hasn’t changed despite a disappointing season. Despite that, Tranmere have still won eight out of eighteen home games this season, which is more than any other side in the bottom half of League One barring Gillingham so it’s easy to see that they’re capable of better. Where I feel Tranmere have really let themselves down this season is when it comes to scoring goals, something they’ve managed to do just twenty-two times in eighteen home games. However, they’re starting to build some momentum up to push away from the drop zone and this is stemming from Tranmere scoring goals, unbelievably(!). They’ve scored five goals in their last four home games, winning twice (including a win against a tough Southampton side) and losing twice although their defeats were against promotion favourites Leeds United and high-flying Huddersfield Town. Nonetheless, Tranmere remain a very capable side and now that they’re beginning to score goals, they look even more capable. A 0-0 draw at Bristol Rovers last match will have enhanced their momentum and I have no doubts that Tranmere are more than capable of making this game their ninth home win of the season.
Hartlepool United have only faint memories of their own stint in the promotion play-offs as this season poses a far more worrying prospect; relegation. Hartlepool just don’t score enough goals as a whole to account for their high level of goals conceded. This is particularly evident on the road with Hartlepool having lost eleven games in seventeen on the road due to conceding nearly two goals per away game whilst scoring just over a goal per away game on average. The truth is that Hartlepool are barely good enough to stay in this division anymore and I feel that their league placing is well-merited currently. Hartlepool United have lost their last nine away games consecutively and haven’t scored in their last two away games with their most recent being an embarassing and crushing 4-0 defeat at the hands of Yeovil Town. Hartlepool United will be demoralised even more than normal from this unacceptable result and I expect them to be pure cannon fodder tonight.
Both of these sides are battling against relegation but only one of them should be in terms of quality and that’s Hartlepool. Tranmere are a lot better than their league placing indicates and have finally begun to show that towards the end of the current campaign so I expect them to use this newfound momentum and degree of potency to overcome one of the worst travelling sides in League One.
Verdict: Tranmere Rovers to win at 11/10.
Dordrecht ’90 vs Excelsior – away win at 13/10.
Despite being mid-table currently, Dordrecht ’90 have already lost nine out of fourteen home games this season, a record matched only by lowly Telstar. This record is a little confusing as they’re a decent side. Their inability to draw at home instead of losing indicates a lack of composure or mental stability – the all-or-nothing tactic doesn’t appear to favour them greatly. Dordrecht have now lost eight out of their last ten games, winning just once along the way. Dodrecht have lost their last three games consecutively and have lost their last four home games in a row, two of which were against sides that Dordrecht are better than! Dordrecht are also one of the worst goalscoring sides in the Eerste Divisie at home with just eighteen scored in fourteen games, which isn’t good enough. Basically, Dordrecht have no momentum, they concede far too many goals, and just don’t look to have anywhere near enough about them to take anything from this game tonight.
Excelsior have played out some bizarre games lately (i.e. the 4-4 draw at home to Oss) but remain one of the best sides in the Eerste Divisie. Excelsior have won three out of their last five games with the only side to defeat them being league leaders De Graafschap away from home. Excelsior have scored in all five games, a total of thirteen goals in fact, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. Excelsior won their last away game at Telstar and have generally looked convincing in recent times, particularly in attack. Excelsior don’t have the most enviable of away records with just five wins in fifteen games but I feel that the home side are bad enough currently to lose this game, and lose it comfortably!
Verdict: Excelsior to win at 13/10.
Real Murcia vs Hercules Alicante – home win at 17/10.
This is a potentially fascinating game. Real Murcia are nowhere near as bad as their league placing indicates and Hercules haven’t performed to their potential for the majority of the season despite their lofty league placing.
Real Murcia have won three out of their last four games, remaining unbeaten in all of them, so bring tremendous momentum into this game. Real Murcia don’t have an enviable home record with just three wins in fourteen games but the fact that they’ve only lost four of those games despite being placed just outside of the drop zone is testament to how capable they are. Real Murcia’s big problem is scoring goals but they’ve scored five in their last four games so they’re again looking capable. They won at home to Numancia and drew at home to Levante in their last two home games so they’re showing capability as both sides are good Segunda Liga sides. Real Murcia have won their last two away games consecutively without even conceding. Their win at Salamanca wasn’t as impressive as their win at the fortress of Cordoba, a side that simply doesn’t lose at home, so Real Murcia have a lot in their favour currently.
Visitors Hercules Alicante have been nowhere near as strong this season as they were last season but still find themselves in the mix as the final stages approach, something I largely attribute to the inconsistency of their contemporaries. Rather amusingly, Hercules have lost their last two games consecutively without scoring a goal in either, losing at Elche and somehow at home to Las Palmas. Hercules have only won two out of thirteen on the road this season, which is shocking when you consider that they’re one of the top sides in the division. They don’t lose often on the road – just three times this season – but do tend to draw excessively. Hercules generally don’t score on the road and simply keep their opponents out but they’ve not been doing that lately so have every right to be worried ahead of a difficult trip to Murcia tonight.
Murcia are good enough to be competing with the likes of Hercules for promotion but have had a poor campaign. They’re gradually beginning to atone for that and it ironically comes at a time when Hercules are at their most vulnerable so far this season with goals being leaked and none being scored. Although the draw looks to be the most likely outcome tonight, I think that the bookies have over-priced Hercules against a solid Murcia and that the hosts have a good chance of springing a narrow win tonight.
Verdict: Real Murcia to win at 17/10.
Metalurg Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev – lay Dynamo Kiev at 6/5.
I’ve mentioned previously that bookies tend to drastically over-priced some Eastern European sides and here is a prime example. Metalurg Donetsk are a top five side in Ukraine; fact. Dynamo Kiev are one of the top two sides in the country, no questions asked, but should they be so short when travelling to a good Metalurg Donetsk? No. The hosts have lost both games following their return from the winter break but one was at home to bitter rivals Shakhtar Donetsk and the other was an unfortunate 3-2 defeat at Metalurg Zaporizhya. However, there’s a reason that Metalurg Donetsk have only lost twice in ten home games this season and it’s because they rarely concede goals on their own turf. They’ve leaked just four goals in ten games, a record matched only by their visitors today, Dynamo Kiev. Dynamo Kiev have a good head-to-head record against Metalurg Donetsk and I’d normally back them to beat them today but I’ve been very unconvinced with Dynamo Kiev since their return from the winter break because they’re not scoring goals. They beat Premier League bottom club Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 1-0 at home, demoralised Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at home, and even draw 1-1 at a poor Illichivets Mariupol. Those are three sides that should not be taking points or even restraining Dynamo Kiev so I worry for the visitors against a competent defence.
Although I’m fully aware that Dynamo Kiev are the better of these two sides, I find it hard to accept how short they are to win this game against a defensively-astute Metalurg Donetsk. The hosts are good enough at the back to keep out a somewhat goal-shy Dynamo Kiev currently so odds of 6/5 on laying the champions looks a worthwhile bet.
Verdict: Lay Dynamo Kiev at 6/5.
Bala Town vs Aberystwyth Town – away win at 11/10.
Betting against Bala Town is rapidly becoming my favourite pastime, seemingly!
Newly-promoted Bala Town are without a win in four games now, losing twice and drawing twice along the way. Their goal-shy displays have caught up with them as I predicted a couple of weeks ago. It’s only so many times that a side can win 1-0 or by other narrow margins until luck catches up with them. The fact is that Bala Town aren’t a very good side – they just defend rather well. Bala Town have drawn at home to struggling Newtown and lost at home to high-flying The New Saints in their last two home games so they are starting to look vulnerable. I’d have been more impressed with Bala’s draw at Haverfordwest County last match had the hosts been in better form but their atrocious form means that a draw was probably a fair result. Basically, to beat Bala Town, you need to score at least one goal – two to be safe. Bala Town generally don’t score and their Achilles heel is rapidly becoming widespread knowledge in the Premier League.
Aberystwyth Town are having an outstanding season. I didn’t expect them to still be up there at this stage of the season despite how much I respect them but they’ve proven me wrong. They’re one of the best away sides in the Premier League currently with nine wins in thirteen games. Indeed, only one of the “big three” in Wales can match their record and that’s Llanelli with Rhyl and The New Saints falling short. Aberystwyth Town owe their success on the road to some decent defending and potent displays. Either way, their momentum tends to secure them the points wherever they play currently with tonight’s visitors having won their last six games consecutively, scoring thirteen goals along the way – an average of over two goals per game. Aberystwyth have won their last three away games consecutively, a run which included the first home defeat of the season for high-flying Neath Athletic. Aberystywyth aren’t the most flambuoyant of sides by any stretch of the imagination but they appear to have a plethora of players with tremendous efficiency levels and just seem to get better with every passing game.
There’s a bit of a gap in quality between these two tonight and a massive gap in momentum so the visitors are looking good already. With Aberystwyth generally defending stoutly on the road and tending to score over 1.5 goals per away game and the hosts scoring very few goals indeed, you have to feel that there’s value in the away win tonight.
Verdict: Aberystwyth Town to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
NK Zagreb, Emelec Guayaquil, AC Ajaccio, St.Patrick’s Athletic, Bohemians, Cittadella, De Graafschap, Omniworld, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
NK Zagreb, Cittadella, De Graafschap, and Cambuur Leeuwarden at 6/1.
Tranmere Rovers, Bohemians, St.Patrick’s Athletic, and The New Saints at 7/1.
AC Ajaccio, Omniworld, Besiktas JK, and lay Le Havre at 10/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Chacarita Juniors (6) 2-1
Atletico Tucuman vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 0-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Wiener Neustadt (5) 1-1
Austrian Liga:
Hartberg vs Austria Vienna II (6)
Salzburg II vs Austria Lustenau (6) over 2.5 goals
First Vienna vs SCR Altach (8)
Lustenau vs Gratkorn (6)
Admira Wacker vs St.Polten (7)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna (5) 0-0
Croatian Prva Liga:NK Zagreb vs Istra 1961 (8) over 2.5 goals
Inter Zapresic vs Karlovac (6) 0-0
Danish 1st Division:
AC Horsens vs Lyngby (7) both sides to score
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Universidad Catolica (8) 2-0
Manta vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2
English League One:
Tranmere Rovers vs Hartlepool United (7)
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Bastia (6)
AC Ajaccio vs Istres (8)
Arles vs Laval (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Nimes (6) over 2.5 goals
Chateauroux vs Tours (5)
Clermont Foot vs Vannes OC (7)
Strasbourg vs Brest (7)
Nantes vs Dijon FCO (6)
Guingamp vs Metz (5) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Koblenz vs Greuther Furth (6) over 2.5 goals
Hansa Rostock vs MSV Duisburg (5) over 2.5 goals
Energie Cottbus vs St.Pauli (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Debreceni VSC (6) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Sporting Fingal (4) 1-1
Drogheda United vs Bohemians (7) 1-2
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs UCD (8) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Cittadella vs Salernitana (8)
Piacenza vs Ancona (5)
Reggina vs Lecce (5)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs Volendam (8) over 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Excelsior (7)
Emmen vs Veendam (5) over 3.5 goals
Omniworld vs Oss (8)
Helmond Sport vs Go Ahead Eagles (7)
MVV Maastricht vs Fortuna Sittard (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Eindhoven (6)
Telstar vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (8)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Cracovia Krakow (5) 1-0
Ruch Chorzow vs GKS Belchatow (5) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nalchik vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (5) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Home United (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Murcia vs Hercules Alicante (6) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Locarno vs Lugano (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Besiktas JK (8) 0-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Arsenal Kiev vs Zakarpattya Uzhhorod (7) 2-0
Vorskla Poltava vs Tavriya Simferopol (7) 1-1
Metalurg Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev (4) 0-0
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Aberystwyth Town (7) under 2.5 goals
Cefn Druids vs The New Saints (9) -1.75 handicap
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Airbus UK (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!