Libertad Asuncion vs Guadalajara
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Paraguay between Libertad Asuncion and Mexicans Guadalajara. Libertad Asuncion were crushed 3-0 in Mexico by a rampant Guadalajara in the first leg a week ago and now have an uphill task to turn it around tonight against the unleashed Mexicans.
Libertad Asuncion enter this match of a morale-boosting but tiring win at rivals Cerro Porteno just a couple of days ago so fatigue may be a factor for them tonight. Libertad have a decent home record in the Copa Libertadores this season but I really don’t see why it’s earned them odds of 4/6 to win the game. They’ve beaten a couple of mediocre sides at home, an out-of-form Once Caldas Manizales of Colombia, and drawn with the other two presentable sides that have travelled here to face them. The only side Libertad haven’t conceded against in their five home games in this competition was lowly Bolivian outfit Blooming Santa Cruz so suffice to say that they really should concede tonight. Unfortunately for Libertad, nothing other than a win tonight will suffice and even that may not be enough for them. They don’t have many problems scoring goals but do tend to rely upon their defence more than their attack so I can’t see them switching that around just for tonight’s game. Libertad have hosted Mexican sides twice in the Copa Libertadores, losing their most recent encounter at home to an uninterested San Luis in last season’s Copa Libertadores so the Mexicans are capable of doing a job on their Paraguayan hosts tonight.
Guadalajara have suddenly leapt from nobodies in this competition to a very dangerous side indeed. They’ve got no domestic committments so they have nothing to lose by trying their utmost to win the competition. Guadalajara have had a full week to rest their players and now take their players to Paraguay full of confidence following their dominant win last week. Guadalajara’s predominant strength is scoring goals, something they seem to be able to do in any set of circumstances so I do expect them to score tonight. In a way, Guadalajara enter this competition in the kind of free spirit that could see them go far as they were invited due to pulling out of last year’s Copa Libertadores due to the swine flu epidemic. They’ve already shown how good they can be, particularly in front of goal, so I’ll give them their chances tonight against an inferior side. Mexican sides are always technically gifted and Guadalajara certainly aren’t an exception to that rule. Guadalajara also have the national pride that eases my selection of backing them not to lose this game tonight. They’re the only side in Mexico to only field Mexican players and sides like that truly play for their club and their country respectively. Guadalajara command a certain amount of respect already by being Mexico’s most successful side ever so I can see them making a pretty big impact in Paraguay tonight, irrespective of whether they have to or not. My only concern regarding them is when their heads drop, they drop fully. They don’t appear to have much in the way of mental strength in terms of coming from behind etc. for reasons I’ve never managed to pinpoint, unfortunately. However, Guadalajara are a very capable side, particularly in front of goal, so I feel there’s more than enough in their favour tonight to at least draw this game.
Although I’m fully aware Libertad Asuncion have to win this game to have even the most remote of chances of qualifying for the latter stages of this competition, I can’t accept that they’re 4/6 to win this game for a second. Barring a fortuitous win against an out-of-form Once Caldas Manizales at home in the last round, the only sides that Libertad have beaten at home are poor travellers – Depotivo Tachira of Venezuela and Blooming Santa Cruz of Bolivia – so I don’t see how Libertad have earned such short odds. They’re not the better of these two sides, their strength at home tends to be more prominent in defence rather than attack, and frankly they have to attack a side that counter-attacks incredibly dangerously. For me to even consider Libertad for this game then they’d have to be about evens or 6/5. Mexican sides tend to lack committment in this competiton, which must have played a part in the odds selection here, but Guadalajara have nothing to lose and everything to gain so they’ll turn up with their first team as they showed in the first leg. Ultimately, I don’t envision Guadalajara losing this one tonight – I actually think they’ll win this one but giving odds on evens for them to do anything but lose this game is remarkably generous, enough so for me to back them tonight.
Verdict: Lay Libertad Asuncion at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
Nothing else intrigues me today, I’m afraid!
However, for the complete picks listing, see below.
Copa Libertadores:
Libertad Asuncion vs Guadalajara (4) 1-2
Argentinian Play-Out:
All Boys vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
English League One Play-Off:
Millwall vs Huddersfield Town (7) 2-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ferencvaros vs Lombard Papa (6) 2-1
International U21 Friendlies:
Portugal U21 vs Netherlands U21 (6) 1-1
Austria U21 vs Wales U21 (7) 2-0
International Friendlies – Toulon Tournament (played in France)
Ivory Coast U21 vs Japan U21 (6) 2-1
France U21 vs Colombia U21 (7) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Etoile (6) 0-1
Geylang United vs Young Lions (7) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Penarol vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 1-2, at least two red cards in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!