LOSC Lille vs Sochaux
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between LOSC Lille and Sochaux. Both sides have had very good campaigns and given the form of both teams lately, we should be able to expect a good game here.
LOSC Lille have three games remaining and they need four points from those three games to win the title, a title which they’ve not claimed since 1954, so rest assured that their motivation is sky-high. They’ve been incredibly impressive so far this season without having what I would call a great team. They’ve got some great individuals but generally speaking, this side has a large number of “decent” players who succeed through working hard and thus if Lille do win the league, I think we can expect them to struggle in the Champions League next season. Teams like Lille are always built around their manager, however, so credit must go to Garcia for an excellent job this season. He’s guided Lille to eleven wins, five draws, and just one defeat at home this season in Ligue 1. They’ve averaged scoring over two goals per home game during that run and have subsequently terrified opposing defences with African duo Sow and Gervinho being supported by Belgian playmaker Hazard, hence their continued success. Out of those eleven home wins, Lille have broken the -1.5 handicap seven times so they’re generally good for it although it’s worth pointing out that their defence can be vulnerable.
I like Sochaux; they’re a very underrated side in general, especially at home. This side is consistently underestimated despite having one of the best records in France over the past few years when it comes to playing at home. However, with that record comes their appalling away record which is still present today. The only side to have lost more away games than Sochaux this season in Arles and they’ve already been relegated. They’ve lost ten out of seventeen on the road in Ligue 1 due to conceding too many goals and not scoring enough, simply put. Lately, they’ve really turned it on as they desperately attempt to obtain a UEFA Europa League place and they’ve subsequently gone unbeaten in seven Ligue 1 games, which is impressive and gives them momentum here, especially as their last away game resulted in a shock 0-4 win at Girondins de Bordeaux. That’s just exactly it, though – it was a “shock” to everyone that follows Ligue 1 because Sochaux are traditionally very poor on the road. Generally, they can hold their own against lesser sides but big sides tend to beat them ala Olympique de Marseille, Olympique Lyonnais, and Paris Saint-Germain, all of which have won at home against Sochaux this season. Sochaux are rarely handicapped on the road, which is why we’ve got generous odds for the -1.5 handicap here, but I’m going with it here because Sochaux miss two key defenders in Brechet and Faty, not to mention midfielder Anin. It’s worth mentioning that both Brechet and Faty have been out for some time but I still think this is the first tough game they’ve had without them both and it should show.
Three points here and the title is virtually guaranteed to be in Lille next season. They’ve got a tough trip to Paris Saint-Germain next match so they won’t want to leave anything to chance though, in my view, so I expect a very convincing home display here. They’ve got more than enough firepower to take advantage of Sochaux’s defensive absentees today and although the visitors are playing really well at the moment, I can’t help but feel we’ll see Lille beat the -1.5 handicap here. It might also be worth looking at Frau anytime goalscorer against his old club too.
Team news – LOSC Lille miss Balmont whereas Sochaux miss Faty, Anin, and Brechet.
Verdict: LOSC Lille to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Porto vs Sporting Braga – Porto to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Approach this one with caution, guys, but I still like the odds on it.
All this bet hinges upon is when Porto get that first goal. Braga are not in the same league as Porto (no pun intended) – they’re simply a very well-organised side that are hard to break down. Quality-wise, there’s only Alan from this Braga side that would get into Porto’s team, in my view, and that gives Porto the right to have such short odds here.
If Porto score early, they should easily break this handicap and possibly beyond that. The big disadvantage for Braga here is that they have no second leg to save them. They’ve gotten to this stage by being cool and calculated, knowing when to attack and when to defend and when they must score. They’ve done it very well too, in my opinion – how Domingos Paciencia has done what he has with a limited squad this season is pretty impressive. I think the dream ends here for Braga, though – they’ve got to attack Porto in this game as opposed to waiting for their home leg and that may be their undoing.
Porto are going to have to break through Braga’s solid defence and that is the hard part, realistically speaking. If Porto score early on then this game is dead as a contest, in my view. However, if Braga hang on in there and the game carries on then they’re giving themselves a fighting chance as it just takes one counter-attack against Porto’s dubious defence and a single goal could give Braga that something that they need to sit back and hold onto and when it comes to preserving leads, there isn’t a better side in Portugal than Braga.
However, I think the magic of Hulk and Falcao will see Porto win this by at least two goals, ultimately. Porto are quite the second-half team so maybe keep an eye on HT/FT Draw/Porto or wait for in-play odds but either way, I think there’s enough value in Porto -1.5 at 6/5 – they’ve simply got an awful lot of firepower, wherever you look.
Verdict: Porto to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Porto, Levski Sofia, Litex Lovech, Cherno More Varna, CSKA Sofia, LOSC Lille, Panathinaikos, FK Ventspils, Liepajas Metalurgs, Suduva Marijampole, Siauliai.
Recommended bets:
LOSC Lille -1.5, Porto, and FK Ventspils at approximately 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Libertad Asuncion vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 0-1
Santos vs Once Caldas Manizales (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
UEFA Europa League:
Porto vs Sporting Braga (8) 2-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Slavia Sofia (8) over 2.5 goals
Litex Lovech vs Montana (9) -1.5 handicap
Sliven vs Lokomotiv Sofia (6) 0-1
Cherno More Varna vs Kaliakra (8) 2-0
Rakovski vs Minior Pernik (4) 1-1
Chernomorets Burgas vs Beroe (5) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (8) 2-0
Akademik Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (7) 0-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 1-1
Independiente vs Liga de Quito (6) 0-1
Imbabura vs Manta (6) 1-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-0
LDU Loja vs Espoli Cayambe (7) 2-0
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 1-1
LOSC Lille vs Sochaux (8) 2-0
Greek Super League:
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Volos (8) 2-1
PAOK Salonika vs AEK Athens (7) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
FK Jurmala vs FK Ventspils (9) 0-2
Daugava Daugavpils vs Gulbene 2005 (6) 1-0
Liepajas Metalurgs vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) 2-1
Jelgava vs FC Jurmala (6) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atlantas vs Suduva Marijampole (10) -1.5 handicap
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Klaipeda (7) 2-1
Banga Gargzdai vs Mazeikiai (5) 0-1
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 1-1
Siauliai vs FBK Kaunas (8) 2-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Cerro Porteno vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Gombak United (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!