Lusitanos vs Varteks Varazdin
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Andorra between Lusitanos and Varteks Varazdin of Croatia. Most people will look at this game and randomly stick it in an accumulator with the away win on it but that doesn’t sit well with me at all.
I can’t deny Varteks are the better side so I won’t even try to. What I would say, however, is that they’re an average side in the Prva Liga nowadays due to their consistently crippling financial issues so I’d never give them such short odds on winning here.
First of all, we have to appreciate that Lusitanos are not the average Andorran side. They are (as their club name actually indicates) largely a Portuguese squad with a few Brazilians, Spaniards, and Argentinians in there too. In fact, only four of them are from Andorra so maybe this side will earn a bit more respect with that in mind.
They’re not a particularly good side; don’t get me wrong. However, Lusitanos are a capable side and I think Varteks will take them seriously here. Let’s face it – the 5-1 win in Croatia has all but seen Varteks through here so by rights they should come to Andorra to keep the score down and maybe sneak the away win. Lusitanos aren’t good enough to consistently break through the Varteks defence and the visitors shouldn’t be interested enough to attack the hosts so I think we’ll see a bit of an unders game here.
I’m not going to touch the 1×2 market for this game knowing how corrupt Varteks Varazdin can be and their financial issues. However, under 3.5 goals at 5/6 looks worth a punt to me today – I just don’t see many scenarios that could lead to a lot of goals happening in this game.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Bolivia vs Costa Rica – home win at evens.
The Copa America has been a bit disappointing so far, in my view. A lot of people are blasting it heavily for no real reason other than that their bets have been losing but I’ve been disappointed by the lack of quality football, to be honest. I can accept Argentina not beating Bolivia – they like to crumble when under pressure and they had plenty of that as hosts. I can accept Brazil underestimating Venezuela by not making enough chances. However, Uruguay not beating Peru was the nail in the coffin lid for me – that result made no sense.
Nonetheless, I’m still going to get involved as I believe we should see more settled and interesting games now that the opening games are out of the way. Bolivia upset the gambling world by scoring a draw off hosts Argentina but to be honest, they could have even won the game had Shakhtar Donetsk hitman Moreno buried his chance to make it 0-2. Argentina were largely ineffectual, creating some chances but inconsistently and not taking them until Aguero’s instinctive volley near the end of the game. Bolivia are a hard-working side and they do have some capable players in their ranks so I quite fancy them to do the business here. Campos is a good winger, Moreno is a good target man, Vaca is a very useful central midfielder etc. I’d quite like to have seen young Pena given a chance up front but perhaps he will be against Costa Rica instead. Either way, Bolivia do have a decent team and I think they’ll relish the chance to clock up three points after their impressive draw with Argentina.
Costa Rica have brought a very inexperienced and youthful team to this tournament. It rarely showed against Colombia, however, who drastically struggled to create and score chances against their North American opponents despite having the numerical advantage for approximately two thirds of the game. This was down to Colombia not playing particularly well, however, as Costa Rica weren’t much to watch. They worked hard and had plenty of pace on the flanks but their play in the final third was virtually non-existant and their defending was poor when put to the test, which was rare. Bolivia can score some joy by setting Moreno through to beat the dubious Costa Rican offside trap and I think they’ll take that route tonight, too – Colombia would have done better had they tried it too!
There’s not enough firepower in the Bolivian squad to warrant taking this selection at anything less than evens but for me, the Bolivian win is worth taking at evens as they have that extra bit of ability in the final third that their opponents simply do not have.
Verdict: Bolivia to win at evens.
NSI Runavik vs Fulham – under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
You know, considering that NSI Runavik had two key midfielders denied entry to England due to passport problems – Ismail and Toronjadze – I think they did pretty damn well, to be honest. I think they looked tired toward the end but generally Fulham really struggled to break through and create any kind of consistent chances. Fulham are obviously the better of the two sides but did the first leg really merit a 3-0 scoreline? I didn’t think so.
NSI Runavik have a full squad avaialble to them today, however, which includes the return of Faroese international Einar Hansen. NSI Runavik will be playing for pride here and on an even more compact pitch than Fulham’s Craven Cottage, I think they’ll have some joy. However, NSI Runavik are not at home here, it has to be noted – they’re playing at Svangaskard in Toftir so it’s a neutral venue. However, it’s not an easy pitch to play on at all and it’ll be interesting to see how Fulham cope on it as I believe it’s artificial turf too.
Given that Fulham have realistically already qualified for the next round, I don’t see them going gung-ho here – it’s not Jol’s style. I think he’d prefer to keep his side fresh for the extremely long season ahead and running yourselves into the ground on artificial turf is not the way to do that. I think they’ll contain NSI Runavik easily enough and maybe nick it by a goal or two but odds of under 3.5 goals at 9/10 appeal to me a lot here.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
FK Ventspils vs Skonto Riga – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
It’s a Riga derby with two of the biggest Latvian clubs locking horns so don’t be surprised to see cards in this one.
FK Ventspils are the better of these two sides, which is largely due to their depth, ability to defend, and competent manager – three things Skonto Riga don’t have much of – so they deserve the odds they’ve been given here. However, I am not getting involved in the 1×2 market here – Ventspils have failed to win four consecutive games in a row in all competitions that I expected them to win so I won’t go into that market.
However, I do think we’ll see goals here. Ventspils inexplicably lost the Baltic League Final against Skonto Riga a few weeks back now and this is the opportune moment for them to gain revenge, not to mention to get some much needed points on the board. They’ve got goals all over this squad with Martinez, Visnakovs, Abdultaofik, Tukura, Mvondo etc. all capable of contributing. Their problem lately has been conceding stupid goals and that should still be a problem today as I see nothing having changed to improve it. Nonetheless, they’ve got the firepower to win the game and I think they will, for what it’s worth.
Pahars’ Skonto Riga are far from impressive so far this season, unfortunately. It’s a real shame because they’ve got such a dynamic attacking triangle in Mingazov, Karasausks, and Nathan Junior. However, their displays are far from convincing and they make some pretty terrible errors in defence. I doubt we’ll see Pahars in charge of the club for long despite his legendary status in Latvia. He’ll make them attack their bitter rivals here because it doesn’t make sense to do otherwise – they’re not good enough to keep Ventspils out, in my view, and thus I expect a fairly open game.
Three out of the last four Virsliga meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and given the motivation that the hosts have and the lack of composure that both sides have demonstrated in defence lately, I think over 2.5 goals is worth a punt at 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Qarabagh, BK Hacken Goteborg, Rad Belgrade, Paksi SE.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today, guys, sorry!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Bolivia vs Costa Rica (7) 1-0
UEFA Europa League:
Shakhtar Karagandy vs Koper (6) 2-1
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 0-0
Metalurgi Rustavi vs Banants Yerevan (5) 1-1
Ulisses Yerevan vs Ferencvaros (4) 1-2
Flamurtari Vlore vs Buducnost Podgorica (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Milsami Orhei vs Dinamo Tbilisi (5) 0-1
Zeta Golubovci vs Spartak Trnava (6) 2-1
Fola Esch vs Elfsborg Boras (5) 0-1
Nomme Kalju vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 1-2
Qarabagh vs Banga Gargzdai (8) 2-0
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Kaerjeng (8) 2-1
FC Minsk vs AZAL (6) 1-0
Tromso vs Daugava Daugavpils (7) over 2.5 goals
Lusitanos vs Varteks Varazdin (6) 0-1
Vllaznia Shkoder vs Birkirkara (7) 2-0
NSI Runavik vs Fulham (7) 0-1
Paksi SE vs Santa Coloma (9) -1.5 handicap
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Trans Narva (7) 2-0
Neath Athletic vs Aalesund (5) 1-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Siroki Brijeg (6) 2-1
Tre Penne vs Rad Belgrade (8) 0-2
Cliftonville vs The New Saints (5) 1-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6) 0-0
Glentoran vs Renova Dzepciste (4) 1-0
KR Reykjavik vs IF Fuglafjordur (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 2-1
Coritiba vs Figueirense (7) 2-0
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras (6) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
FK Ventspils vs Skonto Riga (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Gulbene 2005 vs Liepajas Metalurgs (7) 1-2
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Young Lions (5) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Hougang United (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!