Lustenau vs Salzburg II
FreeToday’s featured game is the Liga 1 encounter between Lustenau and Salzburg II. Both sides are in a rich vein of form and the game is virtually redundant so it’s one of those occasions where I expect free-flowing football to ensue following the inevitable relief of both sides having managed to stave off the threat of relegation, the kind of game where the shackles are cast off and we see a good game of football.
Hosts Lustenau shouldn’t really be battling against relegation, in my opinion – they’re good enough to maintain a mid-table place at the very least so it has surprised me that they’ve had a poor campaign. Their main problem is scoring goals as they don’t tend to concede many. However, it’s somewhat pointless for me to explain why not scoring goals is a hindrance so we’ll focus on Lustenau’s recent displays! Relegation had gripped them of late and Lustenau suddenly became the force that they’re capable of being by beating a poor Dornbirn side 2-0. It’s not a heroic victory – far from it – but all good runs must start somewhere. Since that game, Lustenau have won four out of their five games with only the unenviable trip to Wacker Innsbruck resulting in them dropping points as they lost 1-0. Lustenau have won their last four games consecutively and have won their last three home games consecutively so the hosts do bring some good momentum into this game. They’ve done well lately because they have finally started scoring goals, notching up thirteen goals over their past six games – over two goals per game, on average. Lustenau are a presentable side without their goalscoring issues – when they’ve resolved those issues, like now, they look a dangerous side. Although they have no reason to make the effort to win this game, their momentum and potency should give them enough to win this game.
Visitors Salzburg II have also battled valiantly over their last six games, winning four times and losing just twice so their own momentum is strong. They’ve been scoring goals for fun and have frankly looked more assured of late than their senior team in the Bundesliga have! However, a defeat at lowly Hartberg last match reminded them just why they’ve been struggling this season as they swerve between the sublime and the ridiculous far too easily. Despite their momentum burst, Salzburg II consistently have problems away from home, losing five out of their last six games on the road due to inept defending. That now takes their tally to nine defeats in fifteen away games this season and an absence of goalscoring ability on the road has emphasised their defensive frailties to a degree that they wouldn’t appreciate in the slightest. Despite the obvious ability of Salzburg II, they simply don’t produce the goods on the road so I expect them to be undone tonight by Lustenau.
Although this has the potential to be a close game with plenty of goals, I have to favour the more reliable Lustenau over the bizarre Salzburg II who turn up when they feel like it. Salzburg II struggle on the road as it is and Lustenau have looked assured at home of late so the home win at 6/5 looks good odds for a home win tonight.
Verdict: Lustenau to win at 6/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Dinamo Brest vs Vitebsk – home win at evens.
Although Dinamo Brest haven’t been as good as normal at home so far in the Vysshaya Liga, they’re still a damn good home side which explains why they’ve not lost any of their four home games so far despite not hitting great form. They’re not scoring many goals, which was their problem last season, but don’t underestimate them at home because they’re certainly a capable side. Vitebsk have over-achieved this season. They caught us out by somehow holding BATE Borisov to a draw at home but this run of theirs simply cannot continue because they’re not good enough to hold it. Basically, it has to end sometime and I think this is the game that it does and the odds are good enough to take it at although with low stakes. Dinamo Brest are simply the better side and if they get the all-important first goal then I expect them to hold on against a dogged but frankly impotent Vitebsk side to inflict their first defeat of the season. Dinamo have won this fixture for two consecutive seasons so they’ve certainly got the capability to do so again today and the odds make it worth a small punt.
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at evens.
Vannes OC vs Laval – home win at evens.
With just two games remaining in Ligue 2, Vannes are two points clear of the relegation zone and need to win to keep themselves away from it. They’re not going to win their final match of the season at Metz so three points tonight are an absolute must for them. There are two free spots for relegation with Bastia having already claimed the first of the three and there’s six sides battling to not be there so it’s going to go right to the wire. With so many sides in the mix, however, a win tonight will surely give Vannes enough of an advantage to stave off relegation for this season. Vannes may have had an unreliable season, particularly at home, but they’ve struck gold lately with form coming at the right time. They’re unbeaten in four consecutive games, winning three times along the way, which gives them a great burst of momentum. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively and have looked very composed during those games so I’m suitably impressed by Vannes of late, enough so to back them tonight.
Visitors Laval have nothing to play for with an unprecedented promotion push impossible now and having done enough to be well away from the drop zone. The season can be considered a great success for newly-promoted Laval, however, so they’ll be feeling pretty good about their league placing, as indeed they should. However, they’ve naturally let their guard down of late with no motivation and a bit of season-long tiredness creeping in so they’re not playing well. They’ve won once in their past eight games so it’s fair to say that they’re not overly concerned about games currently. They’ve looked short of goals away from home this season but aside from that have been generally hard to beat so they won’t make this easy for Vannes tonight. That said, they’ve only scored once during their last five away games which explains why they’ve drawn three of them and lost twice. They’ve got no reason to improve their away form so I expect them to either lose or draw this one tonight.
It’s going to be a close game with few goals tonight but with Vannes in such fine form and desperately needing the win, you have to favour them to beat a Laval side devoid of motivation and short on goals away from home. If Vannes get that elusive first goal then they should win this game tonight. Either way, the odds of evens are good enough to back the selection at so I’m happy to side with the hosts tonight.
Verdict: Vannes OC to win at evens.
Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar – home win at 10/11.
At long last Debreceni VSC have claimed their rightful place at the top of the Soproni Liga with just four games to go so their timing couldn’t have been better. They’re hosting Fehervar, the pretenders to Debreceni’s throne, so the hosts will be eager to overcome them tonight to claim back-to-back Soproni Liga titles. Debreceni have a magnificent record at home with twelve wins in thirteen games, by far and away the best home record in the division because they’re frankly the best side in Hungary. They average scoring well over two goals per game at home and should be able to boost even that impressive record by beating Fehervar tonight, something they’ve done for six consecutive meetings at home in the Soproni Liga so it’s not unfamiliar ground for the hosts at all. A win tonight not only puts their rivals in place but gives tonight’s hosts a three point cushion with just three games remaining, most of which are winnable games so Debreceni will be very much motivated to win tonight.
Fehervar have had an outstanding campaign and I can only respect the frankly legitimate title challenge that they’ve launched but they’re starting to look stretched and have started to buckle under the pressure. Their defeat against MTK Budapest at home last match indicated that all too clearly with the visitors for that game having conceded six goals in their previous two games and having thrown away two two-goal leads during those games so their morale wasn’t exactly high. Don’t get me wrong – MTK Budapest are a very good side, in my opinion, but to lose 1-0 at home to them was an unthinkable result for a side attempting to launch a legitimate title challenge. The fact that they’ve scored just one goal in their last three home games shows how hard they’re finding the pressure and I think defeat last match may just have ended their title push despite mathematics opposing me. Fehervar don’t have a good record here in the Soproni Liga – who does? – so their one defeat in thirteen away games this season is under threat from the giants of Hungarian football. Fehervar have been impeccable on the road this season but I think last match will have hit them hard, which should play right into the hands of their experienced and able hosts.
Fehervar have rarely struggled to score goals this season but now the pressure is on and they’re not coping. They’re looking very stretched and are now travelling to a very experienced and capable host in Debreceni so I expect a home win tonight. The bookies have priced the outcome at 10/11, which isn’t far off the mark for me but is still longer than it should be. Debreceni VSC are generally priced far too short in this league so it surprises me that the bookies have missed this opportunity because Debreceni are the better side by some distance. Fehervar have had a good season but they’re not in the same ball park as their hosts tonight so the home win at 10/11 should be a good value bet tonight.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
SCR Altach, Wacker Innsbruck, Torpedo Zhodino, BATE Borisov.
Recommended bets:
BATE Borisov, Debreceni VSC, Torpedo Zhodino, and SCR Altach at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Austrian Liga 1:
Lustenau vs Salzburg II (7) over 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs First Vienna (8) over 2.5 goals
Wacker Innsbruck vs Dornbirn (8) under 2.5 goals
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau (7) both sides to score
Austria Vienna II vs St.Polten (6)
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Dnepr Mogilev (8) 2-1
Minsk vs Neman Grodno (4) 1-1
Torpedo Zhodino vs Partizan Minsk (8) 2-0
Belshina vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) 0-0
Dinamo Brest vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Minsk (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo vs Racing Genk (4) 1-2
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosos Neon Paralimni vs Ethnikos Achnas (5) 2-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur (6) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku vs VPS Vaasa (7) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
Sedan-Ardennes vs Arles (5)
Tours vs Bastia (3) draw no bet
AC Ajaccio vs Chateauroux (6) under 2.5 goals
Brest vs Dijon FCO (7)
Clermont Foot vs Guingamp (6) under 2.5 goals
Vannes OC vs Laval (6)
Strasbourg vs Le Havre (5)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Metz (7)
Angers SCO vs Nantes (6) over 2.5 goals
Istres vs Nimes (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Fehervar (8) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
Mexico vs Ecuador (6) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs UCD (7) 0-0
Drogheda United vs Sporting Fingal (5) 0-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Dundalk (6) 2-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (7) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Triestina vs Reggina (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Gombak United (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Castellon vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (4)
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Brage (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK vs Manisaspor (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!