Manchester City vs Arsenal
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League match between league leaders Manchester City and title challengers Arsenal.
City have set the division alight this season with some very impressive attacking displays and deserve their place at the top of the tree for the present time at least, in my view. No other club has shone like they have in the final third which is precisely why they’re the highest goalscoring side in the division right now. They average scoring over three goals per home game and have understandably won all of their home games this season in the Premier League with that record in mind. With the likes of Aguero, Balotelli, and Silva in their ranks, you know that City can and usually will score goals against their opponents. However, one aspect of City’s team that goes by almost unnoticed is their defence. City’s defence is actually pretty damn poor, all things considered. Clumsy Richards, samba Clichy, erratic Lescott – poor Kompany must be tearing what little of his hair remains out when he looks to either side because he’s the one good defender they have! He’s consistently surrounded by mediocrity and you have to feel for him and Joe Hart, both of which have been excellent this season, which is fortunate or City’s goal difference wouldn’t be anywhere near as good as it is, I promise you! However, they’ve looked a bit tired lately and it’s understandable with so many fixtures piling up and thus they’ve actually started to show their defensive weakness. A 2-1 loss at an out-of-form Chelsea side might not have been an accurate reflection of the game but the bottom line is that City didn’t do enough in the game, which is something that you can’t often say about them for the season thus far. City have conceded for eight consecutive Premier League games now and with their luck seemingly starting to abandon them, you have to wonder what is in store for them today against Arsenal.
Of course, City should beat Arsenal, for my money. I’ve nothing but respect for Wenger and the outstanding job that he continues to do at Arsenal despite hounding from some of Arsenal’s more moronic fans. Arsenal don’t boast as many quality players as City do but what they do bring to the game is a better level of cohesion and a better manager, which makes this an interesting game for me. Arsenal can’t defend, even moreso than City, and that usually means that they’ll concede at somepoint. However, van Persie up front is in outstanding form and even pacey Walcott is learning about a little thing called “consistency” so I won’t write Arsenal off here. Arsenal love to cause City problems for all the bad blood between the two clubs in the past with the issues surrounding Adebayor, Kolo Toure etc. so I expect an even more motivated display from Arsenal than normal.
A winner? It should be City but I don’t see the value here. Arsenal have surprised City before and I wouldn’t bet against it again. However, we have two very attacking sides that only know how to score goals so for me, going over 3 goals with generous odds of 11/10 available is a bit of a bargain today.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk – home win at 10/11.
Despite not needing to, Standard won 0-1 in Denmark earlier this week against an unrecognisable FC Copenhagen side. Standard actually rested the likes of Tchite for that game in preparation for this game and who can blame them? This is a bigger and more important game for the hosts. Say what you like about Standard de Liege – they know how to score goals. They’ve won seven out of nine at home this season in the Eerste Klasse and the only two games that they failed to win were when they failed to score in two 0-0 draws against Cercle Brugge and AA Gent respectively. Both Club Brugge and Lokeren have already lost here this season so don’t underestimate this Standard de Liege side, especially as they finally appear to be getting over the crippling pre-season/early season sales of Defour, Witsel, Mangala, and Carcela. As unusual as it sounds, Standard have actually looked quite good defensively lately and that is helping them win games to no end. For me, Riga’s Standard de Liege are worth taking seriously right now.
Genk, however, are not worth taking seriously just yet. We all know how good the likes of de Bruyne, Vossen, and Barda are, for example, but Genk aren’t playing with any kind of cohesion right now and it hurts their game a lot. Genk can’t defend to begin with but they lack the consistency in their build-up play that I’d need to see for me to fear them. They lack confidence, their fans are restless, and subsequently Genk aren’t doing as well and aren’t scoring as many goals. I will disregard their 4-0 win against a weak Lierse SK last match because most sides in the Eerste Klasse are capable of producing that result, to be honest. What does interest me, however, is that Genk have shipped a minimum of two goals per away game for four consecutive Eerste Klasse away games and that is a real concern here. If you fall behind against the current Standard de Liege side then you’re in trouble, in my view. New boss Mario Been may improve things in time but I think it’s a bit soon for him to change things ahead of this game – there’s still an awful lot to do to get Genk back to what they were last season.
Therefore, the home win interests me a lot at 10/11.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to win at 10/11.
Queens Park Rangers vs Manchester United – away win to nil at 13/10.
I’m getting a bit tired of hearing that United’s defence will crumble without Vidic. He is United’s best defender, yes, and they will miss him in the big games. However, he’s not the only player in this United team capable of defending – far, far from it! Ferdinand has looked immense in the past few weeks and if you’re telling me that United’s defence is vulnerable with in-form Ferdinand being partnered by Jones with Evra and Smalling either side of them then I’m going to laugh at you because you’ve clearly not watched United enough in that case.
Fergie recognises United’s shortage in midfield and from a creative aspect, hence the change of tactics a few weeks ago. He’s made the team more solid and thus United have kept much more clean sheets than they did earlier in the season. It’s not pretty, it’s not entertaining, but it’s efficient. United’s last three away games have all resulted in 0-1 wins and there’s not a single fan of a Premier League side that wouldn’t have greedily accepted nine points from three away games against Everton, Aston Villa, and Swansea City respectively. United do have issues with injuries right now but are we seriously suggesting that they don’t have the depth to deal with it? Crazy talk! The only place United are short of players is central midfield and as a team that primarily exploits the flanks I’m frankly not too concerned about that; not until United face a side that can damage them properly, anyway.
QPR have done really well under Warnock and is it any wonder? He’s a great motivator. He was unlucky to be relegated from the Premier League the last time he was in it, really, and I still think he’s bitter about it now, understandably. Everyone in this QPR side is in it because they fight for their places or else they don’t get in Warnock’s starting eleven – it’s that simple. We’ve got a lot of battlers in this QPR side and you have to respect them for that. However, their attack has to concern Warnock because Championship-level Helguson is their top goalscorer and you know full well that he’s just going to disappear at somepoint and QPR will have nobody scoring for them consistently. Who else can do that job – Bothroyd? Campbell? Smith? Mackie? They’re all “nearly” players that never made it. There’s plenty of experience in this QPR side and I don’t expect this to be an easy game for United for one minute for I genuinely don’t feel that QPR have enough to trouble United.
Warnock would love to get one over on Fergie; we all know that. Do his side have what it takes though? I don’t think so. The only side capable of stopping United from winning this one is United themselves – they must be more ruthless in front of goal and now that Rooney is back in goalscoring form, you have to feel that the goals are there. For me, 13/10 on United to win without conceding is well worth it here.
Verdict: Manchester United to win to nil at 13/10.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina – home win with -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
Eh, I’m not sure that there’s much more that I can write other than that there’s a monumental quality gap between these two sides. Olympiakos are right back in form – we knew it would happen whilst Valverde remains there – and they’ve actually won their last two games 4-0 as a result. They average scoring over two goals per home game in the Super League and have won five consecutive games in all competitions ahead of this encounter. They’ve got a lot of better players than PAS Giannina, to be horribly blunt, and it really should show at full-time. PAS Giannina haven’t won a game since the start of October and have lost four out of their last five. They lack quality all over the field and if ex-Montpellier HSC attacker Bagayoko is the only threat that they have then I’m really not concerned about Olympiakos’ tendancy to concede stupid goals. For me, Olympiakos -2 is well worth it at evens.
Verdict: Olympiakos Piraeus to beat the -2 Asian Handicap at evens.
Catania vs Palermo – home win at 6/5.
The derby of Sicily is often a fiery and feisty one and this one should be exactly the same. Curiously enough, Palermo enter this game without having scored a goal away from home in seven attempts in Serie A this season. Palermo are simply one of those baffling sides that has no ability whatsoever to do well away from home. I suspect that will change for their big derby, of course, but their lack of firepower must be a headache for boss Mangia. They’ve subsequently lost five out of their seven away games this season and not all is well in the Palermo camp right now following their embarrassing exit from the Coppa Italia mid-week at the hands of minnows Siena. Palermo lost the game in extra-time, which will certainly add some more tired legs into the equation for today’s derby. As much as I like Miccoli, Bacinovic, and Ilicic, I can’t help but feel that Palermo are fighting a losing battle right now – they need much more going forward or their season will be a disaster, in my view.
Catania haven’t been great lately but you can bet whatever you want that they’ll be up for this one. They were furious when Palermo poached star centre-back Silvestre from them pre-season and they’ll no doubt be even more keen than usual to take revenge here. They enter this game on the back of a good 1-1 draw at in-form Atalanta Bergamo and that will give them at least something to work with for this game. Much like their opponents, Catania are struggling to score this season although with Maxi Lopez and Gonzalo Bergessio up front, you know it’s only a matter of time before they properly click, especially with Barrientos and Gomez behind them. There’s a lot of good players in this Catania side and there aren’t many sides I’d take to beat them here and Palermo certainly aren’t one of the sides I’d take to win here.
As far as head-to-heads go, Palermo have a pretty shocking record against Catania in recent years. They’ve failed to score on their last three visits, losing all three games. They’ve lost their last four away games against Catania and they’ve beaten Catania just twice in eight attempts so I will absolutely be giving Catania the edge here. My sole concern is that Catania’s squad is packed full of Argentinians and there aren’t many more temperamental players than Argentinians and thus the chance of red cards increases significantly. In terms of quality and cohesion, however, I’m all over Catania to win this derby at 6/5.
Verdict: Catania to win at 6/5.
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma – home win at 9/10.
Football’s a funny old game, isn’t it? Roma drew 1-1 with Juventus at the Stadio Olimpico last match and God alone knows how they managed it. They were completely outplayed by The Old Lady and yet were gifted a penalty in the game and could have even won it had it not been for the reflexes of Gianluigi Buffon in the Juventus goal. Roma didn’t even deserve to draw the game so a win would have just been unbelievable.
My view is that they’ll need to equal that amount of luck to get a result from San Paolo today. Roma are not gelling as a unit and with many big personalities in the dressing room, it’s no real surprise that Luis Enrique is struggling to get to grips with them. Roma play when they feel like, frequently concede, and only sporadically threaten goal. Roma are the classic case of a side built on money; the individual talent is there but there’s no team spirit and there’s no ability to hold a lead due to a lack of cohesion. You’ll often find Roma ending a game with ten men due to having too many big personalities and temperamental characters, as I mentioned earlier, and at the hostile San Paolo in Naples, I can’t see that record improving tonight.
The question is whether Napoli can take advantage of them or not and I firmly believe that they can. The games that Napoli have disappointed me in this season have been the ones against “lesser” sides where perhaps their motivation hasn’t been what it should have been. However, against the big sides, they’ve done well this season and I expect to see that again tonight. They’ve drawn 3-3 with Juventus here after taking a 3-goal lead, they’ve beaten Udinese 2-0 here, they’ve won 0-3 at Internazionale, and have beaten AC Milan 3-1 here. Looking at that record, I think it’s fair to observe that motivation is their sole reason behind not producing the goods against lesser sides. Against likes of Roma in a bitter game like this, however, you really have to expect Hamsik, Cavani, and Lavezzi to do the business.
I expect plenty of cards as these two sides have a long-standing rivalry and plenty of lunatics on each side. However, Napoli are by far the more galvanised side and it tends to show in the big games. I think taking Napoli to win this one at 9/10 is well worth it today.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Tottenham Hotspur, Aris Salonika, Olympiakos Piraeus, Juventus, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Universitatea Cluj, Otelul Galati, Celtic,
Recommended bets:
SSC Napoli, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, and Otelul Galati at around 9/5.
Standard de Liege, Tottenham Hotspur, and Universitatea Cluj at around 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
FIFA World Club Cup:
Santos vs Barcelona (7) over 2.5 goals
Kashiwa Reysol vs Al Sadd (6) both sides to score
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk (7) 2-1
Anderlecht vs Lokeren (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
OH Leuven vs Club Brugge (6) 1-2
Cercle Brugge vs AA Gent (5) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
Queens Park Rangers vs Manchester United (7) 0-1
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (6) 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland (8) 2-0
Manchester City vs Arsenal (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
English Championship:
Portsmouth vs Southampton (5) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs Stade Rennais (6) 0-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Sochaux (6) 1-1
Paris Saint-Germain vs LOSC Lille (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Kaiserslautern vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-1
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Mainz 05 (6) 2-1
Greek Super League:
OFI Crete vs Kerkyra (7) 1-0
Doxa Dramas vs PAOK Salonika (7) 0-2
Aris Salonika vs Panaitolikos (8) 2-0
Atromitos vs AEK Athens (5) 1-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAS Giannina (8) -1.5 handicap
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Palermo (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cesena vs Internazionale (7) 0-1
Genoa vs Bologna (7) 2-1
Juventus vs Novara (8) over 2.5 goals
Parma vs Lecce (4) 1-1
Lazio vs Udinese (6) 1-0
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag (9) over 2.5 goals
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar (6) 1-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Twente Enschede (5) over 2.5 goals
Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Rubio Nu (7) 2-0
Sol de America vs Cerro Porteno (7) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Feirense vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 1-0
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 0-0
Pacos de Ferreira vs Beira-Mar (6) 1-0
Academica de Coimbra vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt (7) 1-0
Universitatea Cluj vs Mioveni (8) 2-0
Otelul Galati vs Petrolul Ploiesti (8) 1-0
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Celtic (8) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis Balompie (7) 2-1
Granada vs Levante (4) 1-1
Osasuna vs Villarreal CF (4) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad (6) 0-0
Valencia CF vs Malaga (7) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Las Palmas vs Deportivo La Coruna (6)
Almeria vs Sabadell (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Manisaspor vs Genclerbirligi (5) 0-0
Istanbul BB vs Sivasspor (5) 1-1
Samsunspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 1-2
Fenerbahce vs Trabzonspor (7) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Afan Lido (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!