Metz vs Nantes
FreeWell, I’m back on my old computer as it’s partially functional so hurrah! I’m also pleased to see the return of the Swedish Allsvenskan and Norwegian Eliteserien as I tend to do well in those leagues. That’s a sure-fire way to curse all of my future bets in those leagues but that’s the way it is!
Before I begin today’s preview, I feel a strong need to vent my frustrations at fellow Manchester United fans. I’m a season ticket holder and was there yesterday as we swept aside Fulham in what I’d probably call our best performance of the season so far. However, some fucking idiots booed Oliver Gill, who is the son of David Gill, who was on the bench. This really pissed me off and that’s still applicable as you’re reading this. They’re booing the son of someone who they think has done something wrong because the papers say so – eh? Anyone see a problem with that? There aren’t many fans I hate more than my fellow Manchester United fans because the biggest club in the world naturally attracts the biggest number of idiots, which is unfortunately the way it is. They hate the debt and form their yellow-and-green protest bullshit but don’t seem to realise that Manchester United aren’t in debt – their parent club is. The Glazers have tripled turnover since arriving at Manchester United and have not only spent a fortune on players but have guided Manchester United to two Champions League finals (winning once), three consecutive Premier League titles, and two Carling Cups. Now, I’m all for dealing with problems but the above really doesn’t strike me as being a “problem” – I don’t know about the rest of you! So this bloody campaign to get people out who have done nothing wrong is utter nonsense and booing a young player before he’s even made his debut and for no reason whatsoever is absolute fucking bullshit – grow up!!
Today’s featured game is the Ligue 2 game between Metz and Nantes. Metz are currently third in Ligue 2 and are in a good vein of form. Nantes have done quite well since appointing a new manager but are still woeful on the road so should struggle tonight.
Metz have long been a dominant force at home and this season is no exception. Metz have already won nine out of thirteen home games in Ligue 2 this season and have only been beaten once along the way. They’re not a traditional freescoring side but they still average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game. This statistic is aided by the fact that they boast one of the best defensive records in the division at home with just eight goals conceded in thirteen games. It takes a great deal to score a goal at Metz and even moreso to hang onto it to claim at least a point so sides tend to struggle here. Metz are unbeaten in their last six games, winning four times, which is a great confidence-booster for them. Atypically, Metz struggle on the road but they’re won two out of their last three away games which tells how just how seriously Metz are taking their promotion push. Metz have won their last two home games consecutively and have scored five goals along the way so they’ve got everything in their favour to take the game to Nantes tonight.
Nantes have won two games since appointing a new manager which is a good start and one that they frankly needed to get away from an unthinkable relegation. However, they have lost their only away game 2-1 against high-flying Nimes which prolongs their run of consecutive defeats on the road to seven games. This run won’t last forever, of course, but this does leave them looking weak on the road with eight defeats in thirteen away games. Nantes average conceding over two goals per away game and have only scored nine goals on the road all season, hence their issue. In fact, only the bottom three clubs in the division have scored less goals on the road than Nantes so it’s easy to see why they struggle.
Although you wouldn’t know it from the league table, there’s really not very much difference between these two sides in terms of quality – they’re simply polar opposites with form, unity, and composure. Nantes appear to be missing big Ivan Klasnic (currently on loan to Bolton Wanderers) as a target man on the road and it’s hindering their dispalys. Don’t go thinking that this will be a walk in the park because Metz are doing well this season because I suspect it won’t be – Nantes are a good side. However, Metz are dominant at home, they’re well-organised, and have even added potency to their list of favourable characteristics so they look a real force at the moment. I think the bookies have priced the game well, all things considered, but there’s definitely value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Metz to win at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Beroe – home win at evens.
Hosts Chernomorets Burgas had a superb start to their A PFG campaign but were poor towards the end of the first half of their campaign and have returned in similar fashion. They need to start winning to push away from the drop zone and they’re frankly good enough to do it. Their problem has been goalscoring of late and they’ve lost their two games following their return from the winter break consecutively as a result of their goal-shy displays. However, Chernomorets are in a prime position to get themselves back on track today on their own turf. They’ve been solid at home this season with five wins in eight games so they should be reliable enough to win today.
Visitors Beroe have struggled to adapt to the A PFG following promotion and are battling relegation as a result. Their home form has been their saving grace as they’re bizarrely one of just two A PFG sides yet to lose a home game despite that list not including the giants of this league – CSKA Sofia, Levski Sofia, and Litex Lovech – so the hosts are capable. They don’t score many goals but their water-tight defence tends to hold firm against a barrage of attacks so they can be reliable. However, away from their home comforts, Beroe have lost five times in eight games this season. They average conceding nearly two goals per game and average scoring less than a goal per game. They held giants CSKA Sofia to a 0-0 draw at home in their last game but again, that result was at home. The fact is that Beroe struggle on the road and should struggle again today.
I’m expecting a tight game between two sides that are just about equal currently due to lack of form and/or lack of ability. Frankly, it should be a very boring game – tedious, even! However, Chernomorets Burgas are a good side and their league placing doesn’t reflect that, fortunately. Although their form has been poor and they’re not scoring enough goals, a leaky Beroe defence should allow them sufficient chances to win the game today and Beroe’s woeful away form should allow the hosts to make off with all three points. As I mentioned previously – this should be a tight game so do approach with caution but I simply feel Chernomorets Burgas are too good for Beroe today.
Verdict: Chernomorets Burgas to win at evens.
Notts County vs Bournemouth – home win at 5/6.
Notts County enter this game on the back of four consecutive wins and are unbeaten in their last six games. Not only are Notts County showing how prolific they can be of late but they’re also showing their defensive prowess at the same time which is a highly dangerous combination for opposing sides. The money behind Notts County is ensuring that they’re too good to be in this division, which I feel is correct already, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them promoted this season. Notts County have scored ten goals in their last four games and haven’t conceded a single goal along the way so they’re frankly frightening opponents at the moment. They’ve been solid at home this season with ten wins in sixteen home games and average scoring over two goals per home game whilst boasting the best defensive record in the division at home as they’ve conceded just ten in sixteen games. With such strong momentum behind them and everything else in their favour, it’s hard to go against Notts County tonight.
Visitors Bournemouth are a very capable side themselves but they’ve looked stretched in the latter stages of their League Two campaign. They’re generally quite strong away from home but they’ve lost six out of seventeen away games this season, which is more than any of their contemporaries in the top five of League Two – it’s just too many. Bournemouth’s away defeats have largely come recently with three defeats in their last five away games, losing their last two consecutively without even scoring a goal. Bournemouth’s strength tends to be at home but they’ve even struggled there in recent times so Bournemouth aren’t playing their best football at the moment.
Although both of these two sides are capable sides, the only one that looks the part currently is Notts County. Notts County have strength in depth, tremendous defensive stability, and are potent to boot. They’re in great form, they’re reliable at home, and have more than enough in their favour to do the damage tonight. Bournemouth aren’t playing well enough on the road of late to trouble Notts County so we should see a good home win tonight although I’m not expecting many goals in this encounter.
Verdict: Notts County to win at 5/6.
Grosseto vs Mantova – home win at 10/11.
Grosseto have won three out of their last four games so bring some good momentum into this game. They’ve been good at home with eight wins in fourteen games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Grosseto’s failing tends to be in defence where they’ve conceded a horrific twenty goals this season – more than any other side in the top half of Serie B. That said, Grosseto have won four out of their last five home games so they do tend to be reliable at home. I’m a little concerned that when Grosseto lose concentration in games, they tend to suffer ridiculous results i.e. their 4-0 defeat at home to Crotone in their last home game. However, when they’re focused, they’re a strong side like the side that won 3-2 at Brescia last match, which is arguably the hardest away game that a Serie B side can face. I appreciate and support Grosseto’s attacking style of football, something that is quite rare in a division – and indeed a country – which is based around tactical supremacy and low-scoring games but their defending (or lack of) does bother me a little. Nonetheless, momentum and potency do support the hosts and they’re good at home so I think they’ll cause problems tonight.
Little Mantova are a good side but largely in defence. They’ve lost seven out of thirteen away games this season but still have a presentable defensive record on the road with their failing being in front of goal rather than keeping others away from theirs. Mantova are doing their utmost to stay in Serie B and I hope they do as I’ve developed a soft spot for them. They’ve only lost two out of their last five games so they’re doing well in their battle against the dreaded drop to Serie C. However, Mantova’s two defeats have come on the road, which means they’ve now lost three consecutive away games and have conceded six goals along the way – an average of two per game. With Mantova struggling to score goals and conceding so easily away from home, it’s hard to see how they’ll take anything from a potentially difficult trip to Grosseto tonight.
My fears over Grosseto’s lack of defensive ability take a backseat for this game as I expect them to be pressing Mantova for the vast majority of this game. Mantova have been pressing more away from home which is why they’re conceding more goals than normal and unfortunately for them they don’t have the luxury of the choice today with points being needed. This suits us well as Grosseto can score against anyone and should do so freely tonight. Mantova don’t score enough away from home but concede enough to lose this game so the odds on the home win look good value tonight.
Verdict: Grosseto to win at 10/11.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna – lay Atletico Madrid at evens.
Atletico Madrid are 8/11 to win this game; why? They’ve got some superb individuals but as a team they’re as lacking as their bitter rivals Real Madrid!
Atletico Madrid have had a season to forget which explains why they’re twelfth in the Primera Liga. They’ve only won half of their home games this season, drawing three times and losing three times – not really the record of a big side. Atletico Madrid average scoring two goals per home game but have conceded more goals at home than any of the eleven sides above them in the table, hence their issues. Atletico Madrid turn up sporadically and don’t get me wrong – when they do they’re a very good side, particularly with the outstanding Sergio Aguero in their ranks. However, they’ve drawn at home to nine-man Sporting Clube de Lisboa in the UEFA Europa League, drawn at Real Zaragoza thanks to a last-minute equaliser, and have even lost at Almeria all in their last five games so it’s easy to see how bad this side can be. Aside from the above, Atletico Madrid do have a particularly difficult trip to Portugal in just three days time against an extremely in-form and potent Sporting Clube de Lisboa side so it’s hard to imagine that Atletico Madrid will be desperate to win this game tonight with nothing left to play for domestically.
Visitors Osasuna are a very well-organised side if nothing else. They’ve lost their last two away games consecutively but they’ve done so in their usual battling style, eventually going down to a 1-0 defeat at a difficult Sevilla CF and losing 3-2 in an epic game with north Spain rivals Sporting Gijon. Osasuna have lost seven out of thirteen away games this season so they do struggle away from their Pamplona stronghold but they have a very solid defence, which is the foundation of all their good results. They’ve conceded just seventeen in thirteen away games this season so Atletico Madrid will have to be patient and creative to take down Osasuna tonight and I simply feel that the hosts are too rash to do so. Osasuna are without a win in four games but they are a notorious bogey side for Atletico Madrid and are definitely due a result. Osasuna have only the league to focus on whereas Atletico Madrid’s eyes will be on the UEFA Europa League crown as without it they’re unlikely to be in European football next season due to an atrocious domestic campaign. Frankly, an organised Osasuna should be able to avoid defeat here rather easily with the proviso that Atletico Madrid don’t sporadically turn it on although they’re undeniably capable of it.
Atletico Madrid have a bizarre weakness against Basque sides that I can’t quite explain. I don’t know if it’s because the Basque sides are well-organised or tenacious or perhaps both but Atletico Madrid haven’t beaten Osasuna in their last four meetings at either ground, losing all of them, and have lost their last two games at home to Athletic Club de Bilbao. Atletico Madrid don’t like playing against this type of side and I think they’ll be caught out tonight – it may even be worth a cheeky punt on the away win!
Verdict: Lay Atletico Madrid at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Besiktas JK
Recommended bets:
Metz, Besiktas JK and Notts County at 6/1.
Grosseto and laying Atletico Madrid at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Beroe (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Brno vs Banik Ostrava (7) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
AGF Aarhus vs Silkeborg (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Portsmouth (7) 2-1
English League Two:
Notts County vs Bournemouth (7) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Metz vs Nantes (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs 1860 Munich (6) over 2.5 goals
Greek B Ethniki:
Anagennisi Karditsas vs Olympiakos Volos (6)
Thrasivoulos vs Ionikos Nikaias (5)
Italian Serie B:
Grosseto vs Mantova (7)
Albinoleffe vs Triestina (6)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Emmen (4)
Veendam vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Viking Stavanger (5) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Armed Forces (7) 1-2
Albirex Niigata vs Gombak United (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna (4) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Gefle vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-1
Orebro vs Atvidaberg (4) 1-1
GAIS Goteborg vs Malmo (6) 0-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Wohlen (7) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Denizlispor vs Besiktas JK (8) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!