Mika Yerevan vs Valerenga Oslo
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Armenia between Mika Yerevan and Norwegian outfit Valerenga Oslo. The first leg ended 1-0 to Valerenga in Norway so there’s everything to play for here.
Mika have plenty of experience in Europe but rarely manage to make it far due to a lack of goal threat, something which was evident during the first leg of this tie in Norway. They generally adopt a cautious, defensive shape and look to counter-attack and hold leads. At a higher level of football, this tactic doesn’t tend to work because there are sides like Valerenga that are simply too good for them. Mike have played four home games in the UEFA Europa League over the past few years and three of them have gone under 2.5 goals due to being sold at the back but ineffectual in front of goal and I expect that tradition to be upheld here.
Valerenga look a bit short here, nonetheless. They’ve not looked the same side Abdellaoue left the club last season – their attacking threat has greatly diminished and subsequently, Valerenga struggled at the start of their current Eliteserien campaign. However, things are starting to pick up now although they’re still not dangerous enough in front of goal, for my money. Add to the equation that this game is expected to be played with a temperature of thirty-three degrees all over the place and we should see a slow and defensive game because Valerenga are not used to heat. Valerenga are good enough defensively to hold their one-goal lead and although they may threaten on counter-attacks, I doubt they’ll be leading the play with an attacking game.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals appeals to me here. Neither side scores or concedes many and in fairly hot temperatures, I think the pace of the game will be slow and neither side really has the creativity to send this game over 2.5 goals if that approach is taken. Ergo, under 2.5 goals looks generously priced at 9/10.
Team news – Valerenga Oslo miss Zajac.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo – home win with -1.5 handicap at 27/20.
Sheriff aren’t notorious for being a goalscoring side; they’re notorious for being able to control games. They’re in a similar vein to BATE Borisov of Belarus, in my eyes. Sheriff aren’t as good as BATE Borisov yet but they’re very good at keeping sides out nonetheless. They were quite poor in the first leg though – they looked rusty and made stupid mistakes. That said, so did Zeljeznicar and the problem that the visitors have here is that Bosnia-Herzegovina sides very rarely get results outside of their homeland. Tiraspol has witnessed Dynamo Kiev and Twente Enschede losing here, not to mention Dinamo Zagreb and AZ Alkmaar only drawing here over the past couple of years. Sheriff have a lot of financial muscle behind them, hence their continual improvements, and I think it’d be close to a major disaster for them to go out here. They’re a lot better than they showed in the first leg and they do have the power to win this one convincingly against their hit-and-miss opponents and with the odds as generous as they are, I do fancy a Sheriff -1.5 handicap here.
P.S. I don’t wish to shit stir here but sides from the Balkan are far from being adverse to match fixing. Sheriff have a lot of money and not progressing simply is not an option for the Moldovan side here. Just food for thought.
Verdict: Sheriff Tiraspol to beat the -1.5 handicap at 27/20.
FC Honka Espoo vs BK Hacken Goteborg – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This UEFA Europa League tie ended 1-0 to hosts Hacken Goteborg when played in Sweden last week; now it’s Honka’s turn to see if they can also win at home.
Then again, they’re not “at home”, strictly speaking – they’re in Vantaa. They’re in Vantaa and that amuses me quite a lot, I have to say. Vantaa is an area of Helsinki, which is some distance from Espoo. However, Honka have had to borrow the stadium of PK-35 Helsinki for this game, who are in the Ykkonen, which is a division below Honka! However, the ISS Stadion could suit Honka here because the turf is artificial and Hacken are used to playing on natural turf. Don’t get me wrong – Honka do use natural turf themselves but they also had an indoor arena that they use fairly often and that has artificial turf so there’s a margnial advantage for Honka here.
In the first leg, Hacken were the better side and had Maanoja not had the game of his life, which I find amusing because he’s generally very unpredictable. The lack of cohesion between Honka’s goalkeeper and usual immature defence tends to be the fundamental reasoning behind Honka conceding so many goals. Their attack is strong, though, and they did create some good chances in Goteborg but failed to take them. In Finland, though, I expect Honka to take some with Savage really playing well of late, especially with defence far from being Hacken’s forté!
That said, I do think Hacken will progress. They’ve impressed me a lot this year with how incisive they’ve been in front of goal. Ranegie is having the season of his life – fourteen goals in sixteen appearances! – and plenty of support is helping him out. Hacken know this tie isn’t over – they’re going to need to score at least once to give themselves a good chance of progressing here, in my view, and that leaves gaps.
I expected over 2.5 goals in the first leg and was somewhat surprised to see it not come in. However, it must do this time – these two sides cannot defend and both play attacking football. Honka have to attack, Hacken are dangerous on counters, and on artificial turf, anything can happen. I therefore fancy over 2.5 goals at good odds of 9/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Elfsborg Boras, Qarabagh, Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv, Dinamo Tbilisi, AEK Larnaca, Salzburg, Midtylland, ADO Den Haag, Rabotnicki Skopje, Jablonec, Fulham.
Recommended bets:
Sheriff Tiraspol -1.5, Elfsborg Boras, ADO Den Haag, and Fulham at a bit below 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Mika Yerevan vs Valerenga Oslo (5) 0-0
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Metalurgi Rustavi (7) 1-0
Gaz Metan Medias vs KuPS Kuopio (7) 2-0
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Vaduz (6) 2-1
Khazar Lenkoran vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (6) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (4) 1-1
Levadia Tallinn vs Differdange 03 (5) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 2-0
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (7) 2-0
Aktobe Lento vs Kecskemeti TE (5) over 2.5 goals
FC Honka Espoo vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 2-2
Qarabagh vs EB/Streymur (9) 2-0
Gagra vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) 0-0
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Sant Julia (9) 2-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Iskra-Stali (6) 1-1
Vorskla Poltava vs Glentoran (7) 2-0
FK Sarajevo vs Orebro (4) 1-1
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Llanelli (8) 2-0
AEK Larnaca vs Floriana (8) 2-0
Spartak Trnava vs KF Tirana (6) 1-0
Aalesund FK vs Ferencvaros (5) 2-1
Salzburg vs Liepajas Metalurgs (8) 1-0
Tromso vs Paksi SE (7) 2-1
Midtylland vs The New Saints (8) -1.5 handicap
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Metalurg Skopje (6) 1-0
MSK Zilina vs KR Reykjavik (4) 2-1
Thun vs Vllaznia Shkoder (6) 1-0
Gaziantepspor vs FC Minsk (7) 2-0
ADO Den Haag vs Tauras Taurage (8) over 2.5 goals
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Juvenes/Dogana (9) -1.5 handicap
Jablonec vs Flamurtari Vlore (8) 2-1
Olympiakos Volos vs Rad Belgrade (6) 1-0
Westerlo vs TPS Turku (7) 2-0
Fulham vs Crusaders (9) 2-0
Split vs Domzale (7) 2-0
Bohemians vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 1-1
Dundee United vs Slask Wroclaw (5) 0-0
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Shakhter Karagandy (6) 1-1
CD Nacional de Madeira vs FH Hafnarfjordur (7) over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna vs Rudar Pljevlja (7) 2-0
Belgian Super Cup:
Racing Genk vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs HiFK Helsinki (7)
KooTeePee Kotka vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
FC Espoo vs FC Lahti (7)
Russian Premier League:
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!