Mjallby Solvesborg vs Djurgarden
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter in Sweden between newly-promoted Mjallby Solvesborg and tempremental Djurgarden. Neither side has set the Allsvenskan alight this season, unsurprisingly, but both sides do share a common factor – scoring and conceding a lot of goals.
Mjallby have a home advantage that most sides don’t tend to have in the form of strong winds. It’s a bit difficult to counter that advantage – just watch football in the early stages of the Faroese Meistaradeildin sometime and you’ll see what I mean! – and it’s sometimes difficult to harness it too! However, Mjallby tend to do well with it as long as they have the necessary quality on the park.
Mjallby’s problem is that they rely far too much on Grahn in midfield and El Kabir in attack. El Kabir surprisingly stayed with Mjallby following a scintillating Superettan campaign last season but the time has come for him to part at long last with a transfer to Italy on the cards after this game so this is his last game for the club. Old hand Ekenberg is going to have to step up to the plate – again! – in his absence but it looks a long season for Mjallby if they don’t find a replacement mid-season. El Kabir will want to say farewell with a goal though, as strikers do, and Mjallby are good enough to score here, just as they have in two out of their last three Allsvenskan games at home. I doubt their chances of winning this game as experienced battleaxe Grahn in midfield is absent and they don’t look capable of keeping anyone out without his infectious energy.
That said, Djurgarden are more than capable of losing against anyone in this division so who knows? I have a real soft spot for Djurgarden as I like their midfield a lot. Their problem is that they’re got an average at best defence (which tends to concede a lot) and that they’ve had injury problems up front this season. The latter has been resolved for the most part with Youssef back to partner Igboananike. Oremo is still absent but they still have veteran Jonson and youngster Bjork to call upon if required so that problem is being resolved. I don’t find it coincidental that Djurgarden have two out of the three games that Youssef has appeared in this season either, as Djurgarden need that alternative in attack. Djurgarden have actually scored in five out of their last six games in all competitions and if they could only learn to hold those leads then they’d be back to normal. However, that’s unlikely to occur today with integral defender Riddez absent. He’s the most experienced of Djurgarden’s defence and I thoroughly expect them to concede without him, especially with lunatic goalkeeper Touray in net. Attack-wise, there’s more than enough for Djurgarden to dominate midfield with Hamalainen, Sjolund, and Perovuo ready to run riot against a Mjallby midfield devoid of Grahn and that should mean we see them score here.
Mjallby’s home games tend to go under 2.5 goals and that’s possible here. However, Djurgarden are a good attacking side and they’ve got more than enough going forward here to score at least once but I can’t see them keeping a clean sheet without Riddez, especially against a motivated El Kabir. Therefore, my call is for both sides to score, which is very generously priced at evens.
Team news – Mjallby Solvesborg miss Grahn whereas Djurgarden miss Oremo, Ayuba, and Riddez.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Thor Akureyi vs FH Hafnarfjordur – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
This is a bold call and the odds absolutely reflect it but I feel there’s a good chance of it winning.
Newly-promoted Thor Akureyi have taken a rather unorthodox to surviving in the Urvalsdeild following promotion, preferring to try and keep sides out rather than scoring copious amounts of goals. However, that’s just not going to work in this division – all the sides in it score goals; that’s how you do well in it. Look at Stjarnan Gardabaer when they were promoted – true enough, they have artificial turf, which helps them in their home games – but they scored an awful lot of goals and that’s what kept them up. If Thor continue as they are then they’re going down.
However, to Thor’s credit, they are actually quite good at defending. The problem still remains that conceding just one goal is enough to lose a game if they don’t score goals and would you believe it – the two games that they’ve not scored in this season have both ended in losses and both games have gone under 2.5 goals. Indeed, their surprise 0-1 win at Fram Reykjavik also went under 2.5 goals as they unsurprisingly scored and sat back and defended. The only exception to Thor’s run of under 2.5 goals games was their trip to KR Reykjavik last match, which unsurprisingly went over 2.5 goals as KR Reykjavik are the most potent side in Iceland right now, in my view. Thor are hosting KR’s biggest rivals FH Hafnarfjordur today, however, and as one of the biggest clubs in Iceland, this is a huge game for Thor. This is a cup final for the hosts and as it’s still the start of the season, I think Thor have more than enough enthusiasm to play their hearts out against their superior opponents today.
For me, the big question is which FH is going to turn up. They’re one of the top two sides in Iceland and they’re always capable of demonstrating it. However, they’re traditionally slow starters and it’s shown with three out of their four games going under 2.5 goals, one of which was a 1-1 draw at home to newly-promoted Vikingur Reykjavik. FH have only looked comfortable during their 4-1 thrashing of Breidablik Kopavogur at home but I’d attribute that to a lot of pre-season sales for last season’s over-achievers. FH have looked distinctly predictable so far this season and although I’m 100% certain that they’ll cast off their shackles at somepoint, I just don’t think it’ll be yet.
FH have some deadly strikers in Gudnason, Bjornsson, Sigurdsson, and especially Vihjalmsson. However, giving them the appopriate service this season is proving to be a problem and against a resolute and defence-minded Thor Akureyi today, I don’t see FH having it all their own way. For me, this game has a good chance of going under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Landskrona BoIS vs Brage – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Brage have two playing styles; long ball, and their passing game. There’s zero point playing long ball against Landskrona because the hosts are bad enough in defence as it is and Brage are much better at their passing game than their long ball game. Brage have gone over 2.5 goals for two consecutive games as we see the highs and the lows of their passing game with a 3-1 defeat at newly-promoted Osters and a 3-0 win against title favourites Assyriska Sodertalje. Brage are surely going to attack Landskrona today because Brage aren’t secure defensively and Landskrona are good in attack so it doesn’t make sense for them to sit back. Henrik Larsson’s Landskrona simply can’t keep sides out so I expect them to concede here. However, they’ve definitely got goals in Olsson and Karlsson and Brage’s defence is more than susceptible so Landskrona should score here. Two out of Landskrona’s three home games in the Superettan this season have gone over 2.5 goals with the only exception being newly-promoted Varnamo’s trip to Landskrona, which ended 1-1. Landskrona have only kept one clean sheet in six Superettan games, which was during their trip to impotent Ljungskile last match. For me, both sides are going to score here and although the hosts are the better side, I wouldn’t dare call this one from a 1×2 perspective. However, over 2.5 goals appeals to me at 4/5 so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Brommapojkarna – home win at evens.
This is a slightly bold call on the back of Assyriska’s surprising 3-0 crushing at Brage last match because you never know how that kind of result can affect morale but I still fancy them here.
Why? Well, this is a different kind of game for the hosts. I’ve mentioned before that I deem Assyriska to be the most potent side in the Superettan with Marklund and Kusi-Asare forging a deadly partnership and I stand by that. The problem Assyriska have is that when they’re attacked by sides that can score goals, their defence will be broken through and that can jeopardise their results. That’s what happened at Brage, just as it has against Landskrona and Degerfors already this season, although Assyriska were on-form in the games against Landskrona and Degerfors, winning each game 2-3 respectively. They didn’t show up at Brage and were beaten 3-0 – simple as that, really.
However, the difference today is that the traffic should be all one-way. Brommapojkarna were a defensive side in the Allsvenskan and they’re a defensive side in the Superettan; some things just don’t change. The problem for Brommapojkarna is that those tactics haven’t worked away from home this season, losing 3-2 at Angelholm, 2-1 at newly-promoted Varnamo, and drawing 0-0 at GIF Sundsvall. Brommapojkarna just don’t bring a recognisable threat to the opposition’s goal each game, hence them not consistently scoring goals. I fully expect Brommapojkarna to come to Sodertalje today purely to defend and that’s not fared sides before them too well and I don’t expect it to benefit them today.
In a funny way, this is the ideal game for Assyriska to get their confidence back with a stream of one-way traffic. Hammarby, Osters, and Ljungskile all played that way at Assyriska this season and two of them lost with Osters needing to ride their luck in their 0-0 draw. Assyriska always find a way through, though – that’s what I like about them, and that’s what I expect to occur here today. The HT/FT Draw/HW market appeals to me here as it could take a while to break through but ultimately, the home win at evens appeals to me here as I don’t see Brommapojkarna matching the amount of goals that Assyriska could and really should score today.
Verdict: Assyriska Sodertalje to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Elfsborg Boras.
Recommended bets:
Assyriska Sodertalje and Elfsborg Boras at nearly 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs IF Fuglafjordur (7) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 2-1
FC Honka Espoo vs TPS Turku (6) 2-1
Jaro Pietarsaari vs VPS Vaasa (7) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs KooTeePee Kotka (5)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Thor Akureyi vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Siena vs Varese (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Hougang United vs Etoile (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Djurgarden (5) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Halmstad (8) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Osters vs Vasteras (6)
Landskrona BoIS vs Brage (6)
Degerfors vs Ljungskile (7)
Hammarby vs Atvidaberg (5)
Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
Falkenberg vs Angelholm (5)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Brommapojkarna (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!