Moldova vs Sweden
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Moldova and Sweden. These two sides met in Sweden not too long ago and the result ended 2-1 in favour of the Scandinavians in a tight game and I expect a similar game here.
Moldova are a very compact unit and aren’t easy to break down, first of all. No side has scored more than twice against them in a competitive game since 2009 so let’s not write off the hosts purely because we can’t name all of their players. They do unfortunately miss captain Epureanu for this game, which is a blow. However, the likes of Golovatenco and Armas can do a job and Moldova’s midfield protects their defence well. Suvurov and Andronic are essential to their midfield and generally help to present a very solid unit. However, Moldova do struggle to score goals both due to their formation and also a lack of variety in their attackers. Bugaiov is a decent striker though and Moldova shouldn’t be treated with the contempt that they often get, in my view.
Sweden themselves can be an overrated side and the odds today suggest just that. They’ve got some terrific individuals but when it comes down to it, they’re often lacking in creativity. Their big problem today is the absence of Ibrahimovic as that means Toivonen will partner Elmander, which is an accident waiting to happen as both play a similar brand of football and neither presents something that the other doesn’t have whereas Ibrahimovic certainly does. Additionally, target man Rosenberg is out, as is Marcus Berg, so Sweden’s options in attack are running quite thin. Will they start emerging youngster Gerndt in a tricky Chisinau venue? I’d be surprised to see it. Sweden have a good deal of authority in midfield and should be able to control the game but will they find that goal? I’m not so sure.
For me, this game has under 2.5 goals all over it. Unfortunately, since Ibrahimovic was ruled out, most other people have had the same idea so the odds have nose-dived. I’d not take this bet at anything lower than 1.80 because the value disappears as I firmly believe Moldova can score here if they play well enough and Sweden need the points. However, at 4/5, under 2.5 goals definitely interests me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Faroe Islands vs Slovenia – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
For me, this will be a much tighter game than people seem to think.
Faroe Islands have proven over the past couple of years that their physical approach under Brian Kerr is rapidly becoming harder and harder to break through. They’ve no world-class players or anything like that but they’re compact and they’re hard to beat as a result.
They do have some good players, though, which is well worth noting. Newcastle United striker Edmundsson, experienced Silkeborg striker Holst, pacey KI Klaksvik hitman Elttor, set piece specialist Suni Olsen,, midfield general Benajaminsen etc. They have a lot of experience in their team and are good from both counter-attacks and set pieces. They’ve always have problems finishing and that may be apparent today but I don’t expect them to concede many at all. The only condition I have for them not conceding many is that veteran Mikkelsen starts in goal but I’d wait for the line-ups as he is a doubt today. Leave it if he doesn’t – their other goalkeepers are prone to mistakes.
Visitors Slovenia are a good side, a hard-working side, and a side that I have a lot of respect for. They are not, however, a goalscoring side. The gradual introduction of Groningen hitman Matavz may change that in due course but the fact remains that Decic and Ljubljankic bring the same pace threat whereas Novakovic has experience but is average. There’s plenty of support from midfield with Kirm and Birsa, especially the latter’s set pieces. Bacinovic and Ilicic have had good campaigns with Palermo in Serie A so Slovenia’s midfield looks strong, especially with captain Koren leading it. Their defence looks solid too with Cesar at the heart of it and there’s bags of experience at the back. Again, however, their attack looks predictable and I don’t see them having much joy against the Faroese defence today as Slovenia generally struggle to score in most games.
There’s obviously a lot of risk in this bet but I still fancy it. I think both sides will play compact games and neither is potent in front of goal so under 2.5 goals at 6/5 intrigues me today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina – away win with draw no bet at 8/5.
Are Romania in their worst spell for a few years? It’s hard to say but they’re certainly not far away. Chivu has retired from international football, which is a gigantic blow for the Romanians. Additionally, they miss powerhouse centre-back Goian for this game so Romania’s defence is effectively in tatters here.
The game is being played at Rapid Bucharest’s ground, which only holds about 10,000 people so I don’t believe the home support will be notable here. Romania are weak mentally and coach Lucrescu is under a lot of pressure to quit, not that he will. Additionally, you have to wonder how the likes of Alexa cope today following Poli Timisoara’s demotion as he and other colleagues have been thrown into new clubs as a result. Either way, the mood in Romania is not great at all currently and it’s easy to see why.
Much like Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina miss a few players too today. Playmaker Misimovic misses out, as does Salilovic and Papac. I’m not too concerned, however – as much as I don’t rate Dzeko in the bigger competitions of the world, I rate his chances of destroying Romania very highly indeed today as their centre-backs are incompetent without Chivu and/or Goian. This Bosnia-Herzegovina team still has Pjanovic, emerging Lokomotiv Moscow midfielder Ibricic, pacey Medunjanin, and want-away attacker Stilic supporting Dzeko and maybe even Muslimovic and/or Ibisevic. Their defence will hinge largely on Spahic with no Papac and they may get caught out at the back but with such a powerful offence against such a weak defence, I have to fancy the visitors here.
The reversal of this fixture ended 2-1 in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s favour when it should have been about 4-0 to the hosts with Romania scoring the only chance of the game that they actually made. For me, the value is on the away win here with draw no bet cover, especially with the above in mind and at such generous odds.
Verdict: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
San Marino vs Finland – Over 3.5 goals at 4/5.
This one speaks for itself, really. Finland aren’t the average overs side but they’re out to impress new boss Paatelainen today and they’ve got the ideal platform on which to do it. My only condition is that Hamalainen plays on the flank because Finland lack pace and threat without him; they look slow and predictable otherwise and whereas that might normally work against inferior opponents like San Marino, they miss Porokara and Roman Eremenko from central midfield today so that approach is not ideal. Paatelainen must play Hamalainen on the wing or he’s stupid. It’s good to see HJK Helsinki duo Sorsa and Ring in the squad as both have been terrific so far this season. Indeed, Sorsa can be a potent threat down the right flank so I’d perhaps forgive Paatelainen for fielding him instead of Hamalainen. In-form Aaritalo is named in the squad alongside Forssell in attack, as is big Sadik from HJK, although I don’t believe he can cut at this level, even against San Marino. It must be Forssell or Aaritalo here! With the likes of Sparv, Alexei Eremenko, Hetemaj, and Riski in the squad, Finland have the midfield to create chances and if they take them then 0-4 is more than possible here, especially as the last time these two sides met ended 8-0 in favour of the Scandinavians.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Ghana, Finland, Germany, Italy, Finland U21, Romania U21, Croatia U21.
Recommended bets:
Finland, Germany, and Italy at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Afrian Nations Qualifiers:
Ghana vs Congo (8) 1-0
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Kazakhstan vs Azerbaijan (6) 2-1
Liechtenstein vs Lithuania (6) 1-1
Faroe Islands vs Slovenia (6) 0-1
Romania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (5) 1-2
Croatia vs Georgia (6) 1-0
San Marino vs Finland (9) over 2.5 goals
Moldova vs Sweden (6) 0-0
Austria vs Germany (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Belgium vs Turkey (5) 2-2
Italy vs Estonia (8) 2-0
Belarus vs France (6) 0-1
International Friendlies:
South Korea vs Serbia (6) 0-0
Hong Kong vs Malaysia (6) 0-1
Luxembourg vs Hungary (7) 1-2
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Andorra vs Montenegro (5) 0-1
Croatia vs Georgia (8) 2-0
Lithuania vs Slovenia (5) 1-0
Romania vs Kazakhstan (8) 2-0
Finland vs Malta (8) 2-0
Slovakia vs Latvia (6) 2-1
Toulon Tournament:
Colombia vs Ivory Coast (5) 1-1
Italy vs Portugal (6) 1-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Olimpo (6) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs General Caballero (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!