Montana vs CSKA Sofia
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Today’s secondary featured game is the A PFG encounter between Montana and CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria. The hosts have proven themselves to be a hard side to beat at home this season with just three defeats in eleven home games so CSKA Sofia shouldn’t have it all their own way today.
Relegation-threatened Montana need points, however, which adds a different perspective to this game. They’re six points clear of the drop zone currently but with eight games yet to play, this season is far from over. I admire the dogged determination of Montana in their home games and the great lengths that they go to in order to help the club stay in the division. However, there is a lack of ability in their camp and it’s in games like this where it tends to show. I mentioned earlier that Montana had lost three home games in the A PFG this season, which is absolutely correct. However, I personally find it important to note that those defeats came at home against Lokomotiv Sofia, Levski Sofia, and Litex Lovech respectively, who are three of the top four sides in Bulgaria (or in the case of Lokomotiv – they were at the time). I think it’s also worth noting that Montana failed to score in those three games too. Why’s that important to note? Well, Montana haven’t lost a home game this season when they’ve scored a goal so I think it’s pretty relevant here. They’ve got some good players in attacking midfielder Gadzhev and strike duo Luiz Eduardo of Brazil and Atanas Chipilov, formerly of Dynamo Kiev. However, individual talent is somewhat scarce in this team and again, this is the type of game where I expect it to show.
Visitors CSKA Sofia have finally picked up their form after a horrendous start to their campaign. They’ve been excellent in their past five games, winning four times and drawing once along the way but keeping a clean sheet in four of those games. Impressively, they’ve battled with Litex Lovech twice during that run so they’ve not simply faced relegation sides here! CSKA Sofia are riding the crest of a wave at the moment and although they’ve failed to score in their last two away games, I think there’s enough firepower with Michel, Marquinhos, and Delev in attack. It’s no secret that goalscoring is CSKA’s biggest adversary, which is something they need to work on after the season ends. However, for the present time, momentum is siding with them and goals are coming their way as a result so I’m happy to take a chance on them here.
The odds aren’t ideal here but there is still value in them, I feel. Montana are a hard side to break down but the bigger sides tend to do it one way or another. CSKA Sofia won here last season and with their current form so impressive, I can’t help but feel that the away win at 4/5 represents decent value today.
Verdict: CSKA Sofia to win at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Rosenborg BK vs Valerenga Oslo – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Things are going from bad to worse for Eliteserien giants Rosenborg as their whole team seems to be literally capitulating. They were thoroughly dominated in their last Eliteserien game at newly-promoted Fredrikstad and were deservedly beaten 2-0. Rosenborg aren’t playing well as unit, morale is low, faith in the manager (from both the players and the fans) is minimal, and now they’re not even scoring goals. Any Norwegian will tell you that Rosenborg have won the title over the past few years in Norwegian football because they have a winning mentality and because they take their chances in front of goal. I think it’s fair to say that Rosenborg generally don’t play the best football in the country or play the most entertaining football but they are notorious for being efficient, which is something that they’ve seemingly lost with their manager change. Rosenborg look a shadow of their former selves as they flounder to replace the likes of Annan and Demidov and I genuinely don’t know how they’re going to emerge from this stupor.
Valerenga Oslo aren’t light years ahead of Rosenborg currently after a bright start had been followed up by a bit of a slump. Nonetheless, they’re playing much more like a team than Rosenborg are currently and that makes a big difference here, in my eyes. Shelton is fit again – well, as fit as he can be! – and Valerenga have a good mixture of experience and youth in their team, which should prove instrumental in any success they have domestically in the forthcoming season. They’ve looked solid at the back, importantly, and had they been more lethal in front of goal then I think they’d have won more games than they have so far this season. Nonetheless, their youngsters are learning quickly as they need to in order to replace the many goals that ex-striker Abdellaoue provided last season. Valerenga work very hard and defend solidly, which should cause problems for a disorganised and vulnerable Rosenborg side today.
All in all, I think we’ve got a bit of a mismatch in organisation and determination here. There’s not much between the two sides from a quality perspective, if indeed anything. However, Valerenga are a much stronger unit than Rosenborg are right now and for that reason, I think the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 is a good value bet today.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs AIK Solna – away win at 5/4.
I don’t like backing AIK Solna at all so I’ve surprised myself by picking this one today!
However, this bet is based on two things; the poor displays of Syrianska and the gelling of the Bangura twosome in attack for AIK. Syrianska have been weak in almost all of their games thus far and have duly suffered three defeats in four Allsvenskan games, drawing the other encounter, whilst conceding eight times along the way. If Syrianska keep up this form, they’ll find that their Superettan place will still be warm when they retain it next season! I’m sure they’ll turn it around at somepoint but I just don’t think it’ll be today. AIK are a pretty desolate side to watch most of the time but the two Banguras in attack are making waves in the Allsvenskan this season and are proving hard to handle for most of the centre-backs that they’ve faced. They cause Elfsborg Boras problems in Boras and were instrumental in AIK’s recent victory over IFK Goteborg. I can honestly say that I don’t think AIK are a particularly good side nowadays; they have some talented individuals but nothing major. However, the fact that they have a cohesive and dangerous strike duo is a massive advantage in this league because most sides in this division have strong midfields and average attacks; AIK have an average midfield and a strong attack, which is a bit harder to handle, in my view. In most leagues, it’d be the other way around as sides like to play passing games but Allsvenskan sides tend to prefer their long balls and the two Banguras seem to like playing within those tactics too. Therefore, I’m going to take a chance on a narrow away win for in-form AIK today at decent odds of 5/4, especially with Syrianska seemingly quite keen on conceding goals in every game they play in!
Verdict: AIK Solna to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Viktoria Plzen.
Recommended bets:
Viktoria Plzen and Valerenga Oslo DNB at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Lanus vs Olimpo (6) 1-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach (4)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs CSKA Sofia (7) 0-1
Minior Pernik vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) 1-1
Slavia Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 1-0
Sliven vs Cherno More Varna (6) 1-1
Kaliakra vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (5) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Slavia Prague (8) over 2.5 goals
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs OB Odense (6) 1-0
FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg (7) 2-0
AC Horsens vs Lyngby (6) 1-0
Randers vs Brondby (7) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Hvidovre vs Hobro (5)
Roskilde vs HB Koge (7)
Vestjaelland vs Vejle (6)
AB Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus (6)
Hjorring vs Skive (5)
Kolding vs Bronshoj (6)
Fredericia vs Fyn (5)
Viborg vs Naestved (4)
English Premier League:
Blackburn Rovers vs Manchester City (5) 1-2
English Championship:
Queens Park Rangers vs Hull City (7)
Crystal Palace vs Leeds United (5)
Preston North End vs Cardiff City (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Swansea City vs Ipswich Town (6)
Burnley vs Portsmouth (5)
Leicester City vs Watford (6)
Middlesbrough vs Coventry City (4)
Barnsley vs Doncaster Rovers (5)
Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest (5)
Scunthorpe United vs Millwall (5)
Reading vs Sheffield United (7)
Norwich City vs Derby County (7)
English League One:
Colchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Huddersfield Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Peterborough United vs Yeovil Town (7)
Bournemouth vs Bristol Rovers (4)
Southampton vs Hartlepool United (7)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Swindon Town (7)
Plymouth Argyle vs Milton Keynes Dons (4)
Notts County vs Brentford (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Walsall (6)
Tranmere Rovers vs Exeter City (5)
Carlisle United vs Leyton Orient (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Rochdale (4)
English League Two:
Stockport County vs Northampton Town (5)
Morecambe vs Hereford United (6)
Burton Albion vs Torquay United (5)
Macclesfield Town vs Southend United (5)
Lincoln City vs Cheltenham Town (7)
Bradford City vs Aldershot Town (5)
Chesterfield vs Bury (5)
Stevenage vs Port Vale (6)
Barnet vs Oxford United (6)
Rotherham United vs Gillingham (4)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs KI Klaksvik (6) 0-1
B36 Torshavn vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 1-1
B68 Toftir vs HB Torshavn (7) 0-1
B71 Sandur vs Vikingur Gotu (5) 2-2
EB/Streymur vs NSI Runavik (7) 2-1
French Ligue 2:
Dijon FCO vs AC Ajaccio (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs Hertha HSC Berlin (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Lillestrom vs Haugesund (6) 2-1
Tromso vs Odd Greland Skien (7) 2-1
Aalesund vs Sogndal (6) 1-0
Brann Bergen vs Molde FK (5) 2-2
Sarpsborg 08 vs Start Kristiansand (6) 2-2
Viking Stavanger vs Stromsgodset (6) over 2.5 goals
Stabaek vs Fredrikstad (7) 2-0
Rosenborg BK vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-2
Norwegian Division 1:
Bodo Glimt vs Hamarkameratene (6)
Alta vs Randaberg (7)
Bryne vs Asker (7)
Honefoss vs Lov-Ham Bergen (6)
Kongsvinger vs Hodd (4)
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord (6)
Nybergsund vs Sandnes Ulf (5)
Strommen vs Ranheim (4)
Romanian Liga:
Steaua Bucharest vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala (4) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Aberdeen (5) 1-1
St.Johnstone vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Hougang United (6) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Zaragoza vs Almeria (7) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Syrianska Sodertalje vs AIK Solna (5) 0-1
IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar (6) 1-0
Orebro vs Helsingborg (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Vasteras vs Angelholm (5)
Brommapojkarna vs Falkenberg (6)
Ljungskile vs Hammarby (4)
Brage vs Varnamo (5)
Qviding vs Jonkopings Sodra (6)
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Swiss Super League:
Thun vs Grasshopper Zurich (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Schaffhausen vs Wil (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Port Talbot Town vs Prestatyn Town (6) 1-1
Neath Athletic vs Bangor City (5) 1-1
The New Saints vs Llanelli (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!