Nacional Asuncion vs Once Caldas Manizales
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter between Nacional Asuncion and Once Caldas Manizales. The first leg of this tie will be the home leg for Paraguayan outfit Nacional Asuncion, who will undoubtedly be looking for a positive result before braving the lengthy trip north to Colombia. Once Caldas Manizales are not a good travelling side as it is so I suspect a draw may be a result they’d be happy to take from this game tonight.
Paraguay is not on the list of the most formidable venues in South America. However, as I’ve explained in previous posts – home advantage does play a massive part in Copa Libertadores games because all the countries on this continent have different geographical advantages for the home sides that the away sides generally cannot combat.
Hosts Nacional Asuncion aren’t generally one of the sides that you’d consider to be in the top two of Paraguayan football, at least in my opinion. If you asked me then I’d say Libertad Asuncion and Cerro Porteno. That said, however, Nacional are beginning to make inroads into taking a top two place and even won the Clausura title last season. Nacional are an established home side where they won six out of eleven home games last season, success that largely hinged upon their stentorian defence which conceded just over a goal per every two home games. They certainly established themselves as one of the most difficult sides in Paraguay in their last campaign and that stubborn approach appears to have been enhanced this season with Nacional having already smashed eight goals past their opponents in just two games this season despite both games being away from home. Nacional knew how to defend and now know how to score; a dangerous combination for any side! Nacional are basically a good side that are beginning to look even better and one that currently scores goals for fun. Their confidence is strong at the moment following their good start to their current campaign and they’ll be keen to utilise their confidence to tear apart their Colombian visitors tonight.
Once Caldas Manizales are a capable side but have tended to let themselves down in recent times in the Primera A. Despite their ability, however, Once Caldas have one consistently big issue; they cannot play away from home. In the Primera A Clausura last season, Once Caldas played nine away games and lost eight of them, drawing the other game. This record was not only the worst away record in the Clausura but they also averaged conceding nearly three goals per away game. If Once Caldas cannot travel within Colombia then I feel confident in saying that they’re not going to fare very well on their trip south to Paraguay. Once Caldas have already lost their only away game of the current campaign and you can’t help but feel that they’re going to struggle tonight.
Quality-wise, there is little between these two sides. However, Colombian sides are traditionally poor travellers and Once Caldas are currently the worst of those bad travellers so it’s hard to make a case for them tonight. Nacional have enough potency and confidence in their arsenal at the moment to make their home leg count tonight and I feel that the odds are good to see it happen at too.
Verdict: Nacional Asuncion to win at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Universidad Catolica vs Colon de Santa Fe – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Hosts Universidad Catolica welcome Argentina’s Colon de Santa Fe to Chile for the second leg of their Copa Libertadores qualifier. Their Argentinian opponents won the first leg 3-2 despite Universidad leading 2-1 during the game. Chilean sides are some of the most resilient in South America, in my opinion. If any side can stop another from playing then it tends to be the Chileans! However, Universidad simply have to attack in this game to have any chance of qualification which could leave their stubborn resolve open to a potent counter-attack from Colon de Santa Fe. Universidad Catolica have already won their two domestic home games in their current campaign and have averaged scoring three goals per game for those two games, thus emphasising just why they’re considered to be one of the best sides in Chile. Colon de Santa Fe cannot defend for shit, however, which certainly aids their Chilean hosts. Colon de Santa Fe have scored and conceded in all of their last four games in all competitions, a run which included a rather poor 2-2 draw at lowly Tigre, a side I’d expect them to beat every day of the week. Colon know they cannot afford to sit back tonight because they’re not sound enough defensively so they’ll be looking to score goals too. Ultimately, the hosts have to win this game and the visitors know they need to score and with both sides having already proven that they can score easily against each other, you have to feel that taking over 2.5 goals in this game is simply natural progression as well as profitable!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Cerro vs Deportivo Quito – home win at 27/20.
This bet tends to follow a similar pattern to the others I’ve mentioned previously. There aren’t many longer journeys than those from Ecuador to Uruguay, which is precisely what Deportivo Quito have had to contend with. Deportivo Quito were playing away against Emelec Guayaquil on saturday, which is a difficult game as it is, but they’ve now got a lengthy trip south without what I would call substantial preperation for it so they could be caught out here. Cerro aren’t what I would call a particularly good side, which is why they’re going to need all the home comforts that they can get for this game. They’re not even a side that I’d consider to be in the top five of Uruguayan football but they are at least a potent side with seven goals scored already in the Primera Division this season in just three games. Don’t get me wrong here – I do rate Deportivo Quito as the better of these two sides and I consider them to be more experienced in continental football than Cerro are. However, Deportivo Quito haven’t had enough time to prepare for this game and Cerro are at least scoring goals for fun so I feel it’s worth a small punt on the home win for the Uruguayan outfit tonight.
Verdict: Cerro to win at 27/20.
Coventry City vs Nottingham Forest – away win at evens.
Hosts Coventry City are what I would call quite a poor side. They tend to rely upon their opponents faltering to have any chance of taking anything from the game. Take nothing away from the hosts – they’re battlers, they’re fighters, and they won’t give up. That’s why they’ve only been beaten at home three times in the Championship this season. However, they’re not a particularly talented side, they’re not a prolific side, and they’re not a defensively sound side so you have to feel that any kind of organised and able opponent will be able to beat them, which is what tends to happen. Coventry are unbeaten in their last three games but they haven’t won any of those games either, thus furthering my point about Coventry lacking any real talent in their squad. They’ll push Nottingham Forest to the wire tonight but I don’t think that they’ve got enough to keep them out.
Visitors Nottingham Forest endured their first blip at bitter rivals Derby County a couple of weeks ago and was always going to be interesting to see just how they recovered from that. Nottingham Forest managed to bounce back with a win although the manner was a tad fortunate as they threw the lead away before sealing the winner shortly before the end of the game. Nottingham Forest were a little shaky as you’d expect but they took the three points and that should do their confidence the world of good to get them back up to their lofty perch. Forest haven’t been as good away from home this season as they’d have liked but in their defence they’ve only been beaten once and that was against bitter rivals Derby County so it’s perhaps excusable. Forest’s play of late is undeniable and the momentum they’ve gathered from it has done them the world of good so they stand a good chance of winning this game, particularly as they’re simply better than Coventry.
Although this game won’t be easy and will most likely be a scrappy encounter, I think Forest have enough in their favour to take a narrow win away from Coventry tonight.
Verdict: Nottingham Forest to win at evens.
FC Honka Espoo vs HJK Helsinki – home win at 11/8.
This call is very difficult to substantiate as the Liiga Cup is still in the early stages and these two sides are unequivocally the best two sides in Finland. However, Honka Espoo have impressed me more over the past few seasons despite finishing behind HJK each time as the hosts play an attractive brand of football. HJK are far from being goal-shy themselves but I just don’t enjoy watching them play as much as I do with Honka Espoo.
HJK’s managerial change over summer makes me doubt their credentials for this game as it’s basically the biggest game of HJK’s season although it’s in a competition that neither side value as much as the Veikkausliiga. Honka have been thrown into the Liiga Cup at the deep end with games against TPS Turku and Mariehamn having already been played with Honka having emerged well from the two encounters with three points being taken from the home game with TPS and a respectable draw at a physical Mariehamn side. Honka know that HJK are the side that they must overcome this season, something that they failed to do in their two Veikkausliiga meetings last season, both of which ended in 1-1 draws. Honka will be out for revenge though, as it’s HJK who keep pipping them to the post and what better opportunity for them to do so than today? HJK dumped Honka out of both the Liiga Cup (although at home) and the Suomen Cup (in extra time) last season so Honka have a lot to want to claim back from this encounter. Aside from those encouters, however, Honka actually have a good head-to-head record with HJK having not lost to them in the Veikkausliiga in their last seven meetings, winning three times. This game will not be easy for either side and I expect to see rather a lot of goals as both sides set out to see how good their opponents have become over the break but ultimately I feel there’s more going for a constant Honka side that have only lost one player over the summer and have a lot more motivation than HJK, who have yet to fully adjust to their new manager.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 11/8.
Angers SCO vs Metz – home win at 8/5.
Angers have been on a strong run of form of late with three wins in their last five games, losing just once along the way. Angers are finally beginning to discover the form that saw them nearly obtain promotion from Ligue 2 last season although I sense it may be too little too late to save their present season. Angers’ success has stemmed largely from their reliable defence which has conceded just three times in their last five games. A particularly impressive win a difficult AC Ajaccio last match confirmed just how well Angers are playing at the moment and woe betide any side that attempts to sway them at the moment!
Visitors Metz are a side I respect highly but one that has not yet mastered the art of playing football away from home. They’ve won just one out of ten away games in Ligue 2 this season as their efficient football doesn’t work as well on the road with Metz scoring less goals and conceding more – nearly two goals conceded per away game, in fact. The vast majority of Ligue 2 sides score more away goals than Metz do currently, which is naturally a real problem. Metz may have laid waste to Nimes last match but they’ve frankly been poor of late and I’m not convinced they’ve got what it takes to get a result here today, particularly with five away defeats already this season.
Although both of these two sides are competent sides on their respective days, Angers are on fire at the moment and look a threat to any of their opponents. Metz cannot play away from home and they’ve yet to convince me that they can do enough to draw this game, let alone win it.
Verdict: Angers SCO to win at 8/5.
Swindon Town, West Bromwich Albion, and FC Honka Espoo at 6/1.
Cardiff City, Bury, Manchester City and Nacional Asuncion at 7/1.
Shrewsbury Town, Home United, and Angers SCO at 6/1
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Universidad Catolica vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) over 2.5 goals
Cerro vs Deportivo Quito (6) 2-1
Nacional Asuncion vs Once Caldas Manizales (7) 1-0
Lanus vs Libertad Asuncion (8) 2-1
English Premier League:
Portsmouth vs Sunderland (7) under 2.5 goals
Wigan Athletic vs Stoke City (6) over 2.5 goals
Manchester City vs Bolton Wanderers (8) -1.75 handicap
Fulham vs Burnley (8) under 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Cardiff City vs Peterborough United (8) over 2.5 goals
Coventry City vs Nottingham Forest (7)
Derby County vs Newcastle United (7)
Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers (4)
Preston North End vs Sheffield United (6)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool (6)
Watford vs Bristol City (6)
West Bromwich Albion vs Scunthorpe United (9) over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace vs Swansea City (7)
Middlesbrough vs Barnsley (5)
Queens Park Rangers vs Ipswich Town (7)
Reading vs Plymouth Argyle (6) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Walsall (6)
Swindon Town vs Oldham Athletic (8)
Gillingham vs Tranmere Rovers (5)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Huddersfield Town (6)
English League Two:
Bournemouth vs Notts County (5)
Bury vs Macclesfield Town (8)
Cheltenham Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Port Vale vs Chesterfield (5) under 2.5 goals
Rotherham United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (5)
Darlington vs Lincoln City (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Barnet (7)
Northampton Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Honka Espoo vs HJK Helsinki (6) 2-1
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Metz (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Young Lions (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!