Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest
FreeToday’s featured game is the Vysshaya Liga encounter between under-achieving Naftan Novopolotsk and ever-frustrating Dinamo Brest. Neither side has fulfilled their true potential this season but both are showing signings of making a late dash for a European place so it should be interesting to see what transpires here.
Hosts Naftan Novopolotsk are finally beginning to demonstrate their true ability at home with four consecutive home wins, scoring thirteen goals along the way. They’re traditionally very strong indeed at home so it’s been something of a surprise how much they’ve struggled this season when you consider that they’re one of the top five sides in the country. Recent form shows that they’re ready to demonstrate their abilities again, however, and momentum massively supports their cause so underestimating them today would be foolish. Their league table placing isn’t as flattering as it could or should be but the belief that Naftan currently possess is very useful at a weary stage of the season and thus they’re outplaying most opponents. They’ll no doubt find it comforting that they’re hosting a Dinamo Brest side that has lost seven out of their last nine visits to Novopolotsk, drawing the other two encounters. What I like about Naftan is that they don’t rely on one source for goals; they spread their goals and play very much as an unbreakable unit. Indeed, BATE Borisov have had great difficulty breaking them down this season and only managed to beat Naftan in a recent encounter thanks to a late goal, which secured a 1-0 victory for the reigning champions. Naftan battled well and looked impressive, with all things considered, and I doubt they’ll be disheartened as a result. Naftan still have great momentum and strength at home and I expect that to show today.
Visitors Dinamo Brest are similar to Naftan Novopolotsk in that they traditionally play very well at home but rather poorly away from home. However, Dinamo lack Naftan’s immensey ability to keep sides out and tend to rely upon outscoring their opponents rather than keeping them out, which hasn’t worked too favourably for them this year with just eleven goals scored in twelve away games, hence the reasoning behind just three away wins this season. They were on a poor run of form before overcoming Vitebsk 2-0 in their last match, thus ending their run of four games without victory. That momentum may inspire them to a good display here but it’s going to take more than that to dislodge a very stout and able Naftan Novopolotsk at home, something that Dinamo Brest have often failed to do. To Dinamo Brest’s credit, their last two away games have resulted in draws at Dinamo Minsk and Shakhtyor Soligorsk respectively, two very good results in my book, so they won’t be a pushover here, hence the decent odds.
Nonetheless, the fact remains that both of these two sides are “home” sides and tend to show it too. Naftan are very much in-form and are scoring goals for fun whereas Dinamo Brest are conceding a little too easily to be taken seriously at the moment so my call is a narrow home win in this game today.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Minior Pernik vs Beroe – away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
I don’t think Minior Pernik’s A PFG placing is accurate at the moment as they’re usually a presentable side and I don’t think that Beroe’s A PFG placing is accurate either as they’re a decent side but aren’t anything special. Beroe’s talent is being well-organised and they’ve done that very well this year, showing their lack of need for a “one-man team” as the demonstrate a strong team spirit. Four wins in six A PFG games says that Beroe have made a flying start to the season and momentum supports them today as a result whereas Minior Pernik have started terribly with six defeats in six games thanks to an average of nearly three goals conceded per game and an average of less than a goal scored per game. Morale is naturally beginning to decline in the Pernik camp as they begin to struggle without midfieler Krumov (now at Chernomorets Burgas) and start striker Dimitar Iliev (now at CSKA Sofia). I don’t envision Pernik being relegated this season but who knows – if they don’t pick up their form soon then they may find relegation is a bigger possibility than they’d anticipated. Beroe aren’t the greatest side in the league by any stretch of the imagination but they’re resilient and very hard to beat so the absolute minimum that I see them exiting this game with is a draw. Beroe generally don’t travel well, hence the decent odds on this game, but with momentum behind them and little favouring the hosts, there should be value in the away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Verdict: Beroe to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Randers vs Aalborg BK – home win at 3/4.
I can’t quite believe that these odds are as generous as they are. Admittedly, both of these two sides have become rather big names in Denmark in recent years but Aalborg’s current problems should leave sides with an average of 1/2 to beat them. Aalborg’s manager doesn’t appear to have what it takes to motivate his side and it’s starting to show. Then again, what can the club do? They can’t afford to sack him, let alone afford a new manager, so Aalborg have real problems currently. Aalborg are conceding goals for fun and aren’t scoring as three defeats in their last four games indicates all too well and thus they’re going to struggle in this game. Kusi-Asare is a recent acquisition for them which could prove to be a good move in due course but I don’t see him solving deeply-rooted issues in time for today’s game. Randers have played well this season without being clinical enough to win games rather than draw them but they have the perfect opportunity to change that today. Aalborg are bad enough at the back to give a capable Randers side ample opportunities to win this game and with Karlsen and Egholm likely to return for Randers today, the squad looks good to win their first game in their past four attempts. Randers are arguably the hardest side in the division to beat (defensively) but lack in front of goal a little too much for my liking. However, I expect them to take their chances today and frankly Aalborg look inept at the moment so I have to favour the home win at generous odds 3/4, just as it ended during the last match between these two sides.
Verdict: Randers to win at 3/4.
AC Oulu vs FC Lahti – home win at 11/10.
I really don’t rate AC Oulu as a football team but the fact is that they’re playing well and with momentum on their side, they’re really a very dangerous outfit. They’re unbeaten in six games, a run which was started by a 1-1 draw at home to giants HJK Helsinki, and they’ve looked good since then. They’ve bizarrely won two away games and drawn two further home games (as well as winning one home game) during that time so you can see that Oulu’s form is a tad sporadic due to a lack of actual ability. However, the fear of relegation is upon them and they’re reacting far better than any of their contemporaries, in my opinion, and thus they look better for it. They impressively won 4-3 at giants FC Honka Espoo last match and thus bring great momentum into this game. Oulu rarely score a lot at home but few sides score here so the chance of a home win is always worthy of consideration whilst the hosts are in-form. It also helps that they’re hosting an FC Lahti side that doesn’t score goals. Impressively, they’ve only lost once in ten away games this season, although they have drawn eight of those games. They rarely score or concede on the road and are generally hard to break down but with both sides here battling relegation, something has to give. Two defeats in their last three games says that Lahti are beginning to crack whereas their hosts are beginning to flourish following some impressive results and given that one goal should be enough to see a home win here, I have to favour the home win at 11/10 as AC Oulu are scoring goals for fun at the moment.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 11/10.
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Budapest Honved – away win at 27/20.
Neither of these two sides are the same side that they were last year with Haladas deciding that relegation is a much more fun prospect than a European place with three defeats and two draws in five games opening their Soproni Liga campaign. Haladas are still a decent side but without any real firepower in their side, they look very vulnerable as a joyous Lombard Papa found out lately when they stuffed Haladas 5-1. Haladas still aren’t particularly easy to beat but with low confidence and no goals being scored, they’re nothing more than sitting ducks. Unfortuantely for Haladas, they’re hosting a very in-form and able Budapest Honved side that have won four consecutive games so they should be very concerned here. Budapest Honved have kept three clean sheets during those games and have beaten some damn good sides (i.e. rivals Ferencvaros away from home, reigning champions Debreceni VSC at home etc.) and are deservedly on a high as a result. Honved aren’t a great goalscoring side but they look as if they are when their defence performs as immaculately as it has in recent times so you have to consider the visitors very seriously here. Honved rarely travel well, which is most likely why you have good odds here, but they’re still a very good side and should be an interesting bet here with momentum supporting them and opposing their hosts today, especially as they’re simply a better side overall!
Verdict: Budapest Honved to win at 27/20.
Espanyol vs Almeria – home win at 9/10.
I strongly fancy Almeria to be relegated this season because they’re simply not good enough to be in the Primera Liga any longer. They’re hard to beat, especially at home, but really lack in quality in general. They’ve lost defenders Cisma (Racing Santander) and Moreno (Genoa) over the summer so their usually water-tight defence is going to be a little vulnerable with the right attack and I think that could be exposed today. Almeria faced an impotent Osasuna side on the opening day of the season and were able to grind out a draw but a home game with newly-promoted Real Sociedad caught them out with the hosts needing a last-gasp goal to claim a 2-2 draw in a game that they really should be winning if they were capable of staying in the division. Almeria lack in goals at the best of times but with a fairly vulnerable defence supporting that attack, Almeria look particularly weak. Unfortunately for the minnows, they’re facing a talented Espanyol side that is more than capable of outplaying and outscoring them, which is what I expect to happen today. Espanyol have already beaten Getafe 3-1 at home this season and have yet to concede a goal in their last three meetings with Almeria, winning all three games, so Espanyol have every right to enter this game with confidence. The signings of striker Sergio Garcia and midfielder Aldo Duscher should prove to be very good indeed for the Barcelona-based outfit with tenacity and ability now starting to look a lot more common in this side. They’ve lost the likes of Pareja and Raul Tamudo over the summer but Espanyol are a determined and capable side that don’t tend to be impacted by losses thanks to a strong team spirit created by coach Pochettino so I still fancy them to do the business today. Espanyol’s defence may not be the best but to be honest, I don’t expect them to be thoroughly tested by an impotent Almeria side and much prefer to think that Espanyol will trouble Almeria instead. Either way, taking the home win today looks something of a gift when you consider the gap in quality between these two sides so my call is the home win today.
Verdict: Espanyol to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
San Lorenzo de Almagro, FC Minsk, Corinthians, Omonia Nicosia, Everton, Huddersfield Town, Trans Narva, Levadia Tallinn, Sillamae Kalev, Flora Tallinn, Ferencvaros, Livorno, Skonto Riga, Ekranas Panevezys, Groningen, Cruz Azul, Santos Laguna, Monterrey, Otelul Galati, FC Poli Timisoara, Rangers, Vojvodina Novi Sad, Penarol.
Recommended bets:
FC Minsk, Naftan Novopolotsk, and Otelul Galati at 3/1.
San Lorenzo de Almagro, Corinthians, and Cruz Azul at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Olimpo (8) 2-0
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Tigre (6) 2-1
Quilmes vs Argentinos Juniors (5) 1-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
North Queensland Fury vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1
Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Belshina vs Dnepr Mogilev (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (5) 1-1
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest (7) 2-1
FC Minsk vs Neman Grodno (8) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Lokeren (8) over 2.5 goals
Eupen vs Germinal Beerschot (5) 1-1
Westerlo vs Lierse SK (6) 1-0
Cercle Brugge vs Sint-Truiden (6) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Gremio Prudente (8) 2-0
Botafogo vs Cruzeiro (7) 1-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik vs Beroe (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Sliven vs Rakovski (6) 2-0
Montana vs Akademik Sofia (7) 2-1
Kaliakra vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (5) 1-0
Litex Lovech vs Chernomorets Burgas (7) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Envigado (7) 2-0
Atletico Huila vs Atletico Nacional de Medeelin (5) 2-1
America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Zadar vs Istra 1961 (6) 2-1
Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (7) 1-0
Karlovac vs Slaven Koprivnica (6) 2-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki vs Omonia Nicosia (8) 0-2
AEK Larnaca vs Doxa (5) 2-1
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Slovacko (6) 1-0, draw no bet
Banik Ostrava vs Hradec Kralove (6) 2-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec (4) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Aalborg BK (7) 2-0
Danish 1st Division:
Bronshoj vs Fyn (6) over 2.5 goals
HB Koge vs Hjorring (5)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
El Nacional Quito vs Independiente (6) 2-1
Espoli Cayambe vs Liga de Quito (5) 1-2
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs West Ham United (6) 2-1
Aston Villa vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Fulham (5) 1-1
Everton vs Newcastle United (8) 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (3) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City (6) 0-1
Sunderland vs Arsenal (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Scunthorpe United (6)
Millwall vs Watford (6)
Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City (5)
Sheffield United vs Portsmouth (6)
Crystal Palace vs Burnley (5)
Preston North End vs Norwich City (6) over 2.5 goals
Bristol City vs Coventry City (5)
Leicester City vs Queens Park Rangers (4)
Barnsley vs Derby County (5)
Middlesbrough vs Reading (6)
Hull City vs Nottingham Forest (6)
English League One:
Carlisle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Notts County vs Leyton Orient (7)
Exeter City vs Peterborough United (5) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
Brentford vs Hartlepool United (4)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Bristol Rovers (5) over 2.5 goals
Walsall vs Swindon Town (7)
Huddersfield Town vs Yeovil Town (8) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Colchester United (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Rochdale (6) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Charlton Athletic (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Bournemouth (7)
English League Two:
Oxford United vs Stockport County (6) under 2.5 goals
Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town (7)
Macclesfield Town vs Port Vale (5) draw no bet
Bradford City vs Gillingham (6)
Bury vs Hereford United (7)
Burton Albion vs Crewe Alexandra (6)
Aldershot Town vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Southend United vs Morecambe (6)
Stevenage vs Torquay United (5)
Barnet vs Rotherham United (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Northampton Town (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Paide (6) 2-0
Viljandi Tulevik vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 1-2
Lootus vs Flora Tallinn (8) -1.5 handicap
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare (9) -1.5 handicap
Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme Kalju (8) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
AC Oulu vs FC Lahti (6) 2-0
TPS Turku vs Tampere United (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPV Tampere vs Jippo Joensuu (5) draw no bet
FC Espoo vs KPV Kokkola (6)
Viikingit Helsinki vs PS Kemi Kings (7)
French Ligue 1:
Lorient vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (5) 1-1
AS Monaco vs Toulouse (5) 0-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Stade Brestois (6) 0-0
Saint-Etienne vs Montpellier HSC (6) 2-1
Sochaux vs OGC Nice (5) 1-0
Valenciennes vs Racing Club Lens (6) 2-0
Arles vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-2
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Koln (7) 2-1
Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 (3) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (5) 1-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hannover 96 (6) 2-1
Kaiserslautern vs Hoffenheim (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Paderborn (7)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs VfL Bochum (4)
Greek Super League:
Iraklis vs Larissa (5) 1-1
Ergotelis vs Xanthi (7) 1-0
Kavala vs Panathinaikos (6) 1-2
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Gyori ETO FC (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Ferencvaros vs Siofok (8) 2-0
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Budapest Honved (7) 1-2
Lombard Papa vs Kecskemeti TE (5) 2-2
Italian Serie A:
Fiorentina vs Lazio (6) 2-1
AC Milan vs Catania (7) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Crotone (6)
Ascoli vs Empoli (6)
Cittadella vs Frosinone (5)
Grosseto vs Piacenza (6)
Livorno vs Portosummaga (8)
Reggina vs Modena (4)
Siena vs Atalanta Bergamo (7)
Torino vs Novara (5) both sides to score
Triestina vs Padova (4) draw no bet
Japanese J-League:
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Vissel Kobe (7) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs FC Tokyo (6) 1-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F.Marinos (6) 1-1
Kashima Antlers vs Omiya Ardija (6) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shimizu S-Pulse (6) 1-1
Shonan Bellmare vs Kawasaki Frontale (6) 0-2
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Latvian Virsliga:
Skonto Riga vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) -1.5 handicap
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Siauliai (6) 1-1
Mazekiai vs Ekranas Panevezys (9) 0-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs Excelsior Rotterdam (8) 2-0
Vitesse Arnhem vs NAC Breda (6) 2-1
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag (6) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Queretaro (8) 2-1
Monterrey vs Atlas (8) 2-0
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa (8) 2-0
Guadalajara vs Jaguares (6) 2-1
San Luis vs Pachuca (6) 1-1
Atlante vs Morelia (5) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 2-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 1-1
Nacional Asuncion vs 3 de Febrero (7) 2-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Inti Gas vs Universitario Lima (6) 1-1
Leon de Huanuco vs Juan Aurich (7) over 2.5 goals
Alianza Lima vs CNI (6) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Belchatow (6) 1-1
Widzew Lodz vs Slask Wroclaw (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warsaw (4) 1-1
Polonia Bytom vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Polish Liga 1:
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Piast Gliwice (5) draw no bet
Kluczbork vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (5)
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs LKS Lodz (6)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Flota Swinoujscie (7) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Beira-Mar vs Maritimo Funchal (6) under 2.5 goals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Uniao de Leiria (7) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Unirea Urziceni (8) 2-0
Poli Timisoara vs Sportul Studentesc (8) over 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (5) 1-0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hearts (6) 0-1
Hibernian vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 2-1
Motherwell vs Aberdeen (4) 1-1
Rangers vs Dundee United (8) over 2.5 goals
St.Johnstone vs St.Mirren (5) 0-0
Serbian Super Liga:
Jagodina vs BSK Borca (6) 1-0
Smederevo vs Cukaricki (7) 2-1
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Metalac GM (8) 2-0
OFK Belgrade vs Indjija (7) 2-0
Red Star Belgrade vs Javor Ivanjica (6) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Ruzomberok vs Zlate Moravce (7) under 2.5 goals
Tatran Presov vs Slovan Bratislava (6) 1-2
Spartak Trnava vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (7) over 2.5 goals
Dubnica vs MSK Zilina (7) 1-2
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Kosice (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Koper vs Nafta Lendava (5) 2-1
Rudar Velenje vs Gorica (6) 1-1
Domzale vs Maribor (5) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Almeria (7) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Osasuna (6) 1-0
Sporting Gijon vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid (6) 0-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Barcelona II vs Elche (4)
Numancia vs Cartagena (5)
Cordoba vs Deportivo Xerez (6)
Tenerife vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Huesca vs Salamanca (6)
Alcorcon vs Girona (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs AIK Solna (6) 2-1
Kalmar vs GAIS Goteborg (7) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-1
Ankaragucu vs Kasimpasa (5) 1-0
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Bucaspor vs Galatasaray (4) 0-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 0-1
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Vorskla Poltava (6) 0-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Racing Club Montevideo vs River Plate Montevideo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Penarol vs El Tanque Sisley (8) over 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Neath Athletic (6) 2-1
Port Talbot Town vs Bangor City (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!