Naftan Novopolotsk vs Minsk
FreeIs this a Naftan home game with odds above evens on the home win? Do my eyes deceive me?! Splendid!
Today’s featured game is the mighty Naftan Novopolotsk against FC Minsk in the Vysshaya Liga. Hosts Naftan have earned a formidable reputation at home in recent years in Belarus and still have it now although they’re not firing on all cylinders just yet this season. FC Minsk have had a good start but have found themselves on a downward spiral even at this early stage of the campaign, which isn’t a great surprise, really, as they’re not a very good side.
Naftan are on a bad run of form, unfortunately, which does make this a risky call. They’ve not won in five games so heads have dropped. However, they’ve only lost one home game out of four this season and that was against reigning champions BATE Borisov so their home strength can be identified as usual. A disappointing draw at home to misfits Torpedo Zhodino last match didn’t help their cry for form but they should get back on track today to make it three wins in five home games. Naftan haven’t done badly defensively of late – they’ve just struggled for goals but that’s not a feature I expect to encounter for long with Naftan. They’ve beaten Minsk on both occasions that Minsk have made the trip to Novopolotsk in the Vysshaya Liga and I’ll be surprised if they fail to do so again today irrespective of their form dip.
Visitors FC Minsk turned a few heads at the start of the season by beating Dnepr Mogilev, winning at illustrious neighbours Dinamo Minsk, and drawing at home to reigning champions BATE Borisov – two of those results they’re just not capable of. However, they honeymoon period is well and truly over now with three defeats in their past five games. They’ve lost their last two away games consecutively and are finding their true calling a lot easier to attain than their unpredictable title-challenging form! Minsk have only scored in one out of their last three games so I really don’t fancy their chances against a steely Naftan Novopolotsk today.
I’m happy to admit that this bet carries risk but I’m very happy to see such generous odds on the home win. Naftan should never be above evens unless hosting BATE Borisov or Dinamo Minsk so the fact that the bookies have fucked this one up pleases me immensely. Approach with caution but the value on the home win here is too good for me to overlook today for a franky superior side.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 5/4.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Dinamo Minsk vs BATE Borisov – away win at 6/5.
Oh my days, have the bookies gone mad? Dinamo Minsk are the only “threat” to BATE Borisov’s Vysshaya Liga domination but they’ve faded a lot in the past few years and look a shadow of their former selves. Hell, they’ve played three home games already this season and haven’t won any of them, losing twice and scoring just once during those three games! I was impressed with their demolition of talented but underachieving Shakhtyor Soligorsk last match but they’re just dire when they can’t counter-attack so they could and should really struggle against the champions today. BATE Borisov have let me down in silly games in recent weeks by not scoring but the fact is that they don’t concede goals – they’ve not conceded any goals so far this season in fact – and they’ve always won the hard games and failed to win the easy ones! They’ve won their last two visits here and will be keen to remind Dinamo just who the champions are so they have to be worth a thought today, particularly at very generous odds considering they’re by far and away the better of these two sides!
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 6/5.
Selfoss vs Fylkir Reykjavik – away win at 5/6.
No secrets here – I just don’t believe the bookies have given Fylkir the respect that they deserve. Sefloss are new to the division and there’s an awfully big gap between the Urvalsdeild and the 1.Deild so I expect them to struggle today. Fylkir are one of the top five sides in the division in my opinion and managed to win over half of their away games last season due to a steely defence. Selfoss will want to make an impression on this division as all newly-promoted sides do but I think they’ve picked the wrong side to try it with – Fylkir are a good side and have good experience. They’re a competent away side and should really be 4/6 but I’m happy with the bookies tentative 5/6 and expect the away win to occur tonight.
Verdict: Fylkir Reykjavik to win at 5/6.
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs UMF Grindavik – home win at 10/11.
This is a bit more risky than the other Icelandic bets tonight but the odds make it worthwhile. Stjarnan have a habit of starting the season well and ending it badly. They were ferocious at the start of last season at home, beating sides twice as good as they are. I’m hoping they’ll launch a similar start to this campaign and thus make the bet worthwhile. They’re not one of the better sides in the division but they’re generally a difficult home side hence winning over half of their home games last season despite having only just joined the division. Stjarnan’s advantage is that they score a lot of goals at home so they’re always worth a shot on their own turf. Grindavik are just a poor side in general and I’m not really sure how they avoided relegation last season. They lost seven out of eleven away games last season and I expect a similar record this season barring a miracle. Stjarnan won this game 3-1 last season and a similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise me today at decent odds of 10/11 – they should really be at about 8/11.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 10/11.
Polonia Warsaw vs Legia Warsaw – home win at 13/8.
This Warsaw derby should prove to be a feisty occasion with the bitter giants Legia having nothing to play for and in poor form and hosts Polonia desperately needing points to stave off the threat of relegation. Bluntly; expect cards and goals in this one today!
Polonia have been quite unlucky this season, particularly considering ex-Barcelona midfielder Jose Maria Bakero has done a good job since taking over, guiding Polonia into playing good football. Polonia have lost confidence following bad results but they’re still a capable side. This is their last home game of the season and their rough pitch does give them an advantage against visiting sides so I’ll give them their dues today as they do need to win this one. A win today guarantees them Ekstraklasa football next season and I doubt they’d relish the trip to face Polonia Bytom whilst needing to win. Polonia Warsaw don’t concede many goals at home and are unbeaten in three games whilst conceding just once along the way so they’ve got momentum and a strong defence behind them at the moment, as well as two consecutive wins. History is against me as Polonia haven’t beaten illustrious local rivals Legia since 2000 but it’s about time we had a change here and today is a good day to see it occur on.
Legia Warsaw’s morale is brusied and battered currently. They’ve not had a good season as it is but two consecutive defeats has ended their hopes of an Ekstraklasa title this year and their last defeat was a gruelling 3-0 defeat at home against bitter rivals Wisla Krakow so they’re not feeling too perky at the moment, I think it’s fair to say! They’ve not got a great chance of playing European football next season so they’re really going to have to stand up and be counted today to have a chance. What’s worse for Legia is that they’ve been poor away from home this season with just six wins in fourteen games, losing five times along the way. They’ve scored a paltry ten goals away from home, a record that only Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw can “beat”. Legia don’t concede many but their goalscoring record on the road is shocking so how they hope to improve that against a confident Polonia defence today in a derby when Legia haven’t scored in their last two games consecutively is beyond me.
Polonia fought really hard with Cracovia to win last match so they’re showing real grit to stay in this division and it’s the kind of side that Legia hate to play against when they play like this. Unfortunately for Polonia, they do miss an important defender – Dziewicki – through injury which does concern me a little. Still, Polonia have all the motivation and momentum to make it happen today and derbies often see shocks occurring so why not today? This game has the hallmarks of being a traditional upset and I think the odds on the home win are definitely worth a flutter as a result, particularly with Polonia’s strong motivation and Legia’s very tired and burned out players from a long season!
Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to win at 13/8.
Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan – away win but bet in-play!
I really like the idea of Lech winning this game but 10/11 is too short for them to do so. Ruch are damn good at home and are the only side with a chance of breaking apart the top three, in my opinion, so they’re not to be underesimated. However, their defending last match was atrocious and the defeat in general will have hurt them. They’ve not scored in their last two games consecutively and are missing striker Niedzielan for this game, who is Ruch’s second top goalscorer. Ruch are facing a steely Lech defence and aren’t scoring goals, which equates to problems today.
Lech Poznan have been superb this season and are in fine form both in attack and defence. They’ve won four out of their last five games and only a 0-0 draw with reigning champions Wisla Krakow prevented them from five consecutive wins. They’ve scored eight goals in three games and their confidence is really high as coming from behind against Lechia Gdansk indicated all too well despite the hosts not playing well on that occasion and the visitors having played well. Lech need to win this one to keep up the pressure on Wisla, particularly with their rivals travelling to their rivals Cracovia Krakow tonight with a chance of a possible upset. Lech unusually have a good record in Chorzow with two wins out of their last three visits so they are capable of winning this one today.
Lech are the better of the two sides and their key striker Lewandowski is truly showing his maturity by scoring key goals for them and it’s this kind of inspirational play that is guiding Lech to victories. Lech are inspired, driven, and have strong momentum so they really should win this one today. However, I really don’t like odds of 10/11 on this game so I’d wait until the in-play markets start and hit them at evens or above.
Verdict: Lech Poznan to win in-play.
Accumulator fodder:
Suwon Bluewings, KR Reykjavik, Fram Reykjavik, and Wisla Krakow (hesitantly due to their derby game)
Recommended bets:
Naftan Novopolotsk and BATE Borisov at 5/1.
Fylkir Reykjavik, KR Reykjavik, Fram Reykjavik, and Stjarnan Gardabaer at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Guadalajara vs Libertad Asuncion (7) 1-0
Asian Champions League:
Suwon Bluewings vs Beijing Guoan (8) 2-0
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma vs Gamba Osaka (5) 1-1
Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (6) 2-1
Al Shabab vs Estehlal (7) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Minsk (7) 2-1
Partizan Minsk vs Belshina (4) 1-0
Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (6) 0-0
Neman Grodno vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (4) 1-2
Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Brest (5) 1-1
Dinamo Minsk vs BATE Borisov (7) 0-1
English Championship Play-Off:
Nottingham Forest vs Blackpool (4) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Le Havre (5) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Selfoss vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 1-3
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Keflavik (6) 1-1
KR Reykjavik vs Haukar (9) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs UMF Grindavik (7) 2-0
Fram Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (8) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Warsaw vs Legia Warsaw (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Odra Wodzislaw vs Slask Wroclaw (5) 2-1
GKS Belchatow vs Lechia Gdansk (6) 1-0
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce (6) 1-1
Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan (6) 1-2
Arka Gdynia vs Piast Gliwice (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Polonia Bytom (7) 2-0
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow (8) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Politehnica Iasi vs FC Brasov (5) 1-0
Gloria Bistrita vs Unirea Urziceni (6) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Tom Tomsk (5) 1-0
Spartak Nalchik vs Lokomotiv Moscow (5) 1-2
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Dinamo Moscow (4) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Albirex Niigata (7) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Koper vs Domzale (6) 2-0
Gorica vs Nafta Lendava (6) 2-1
Drava vs Maribor (4) 1-1
Celje vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 1-1
Interblock Ljubljana vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs (5)
Ljungskile vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!