Netherlands vs Ghana
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Netherlands and Ghana. The game is played in Rotterdam, Netherlands, so the hosts already have a large advantage here. Netherlands have impressed me a lot in their warm-up for the World Cup as they’re somehow always able to do before a major tournament so my respect to them. Ghana are competing in the World Cup too but frankly I don’t expect much of them due to no Michael Essien, who is the heartbeat of the team.
As I touched upon briefly already, Netherlands have impressed me a lot of late. Their ruthless efficiency, dogged tenacity, and consistent ability to score goals is frankly frightening as they’ve not bad a barren spell for longer than I care to remember. I mean, barring Van Persie, Sneijder, nd Robben, how many of the Dutch national side are genuine stars? In my opinion – none. The rest are very hard-workers with good ability, experience, or potential, but the Dutch have always had an innate ability to blend those factors seamlessly and create a difficult side to beat, a side that scores goals too. They’ve not been as tight defensively in their past two friendlies as I’d have expected by conceding to both Mexico and USA but Netherlands still won both games so their mental strength is still there. In front of their own fans in their last game before travelling to South Africa, you have to feel that Netherlands will put up a show tonight for their fans. They’ve already scored an average of two goals per game for their last two friendlies and I expect them to capitalise against a poor Ghanaian defence tonight, possibly even scoring three or four.
Visitors Ghana are a difficult opponent when Michael Essien dictates their play from the centre of the park. Unfortunately for Ghana, they’re little without him. That’s not a dig at their remaining players – they have some very good individuals – but they’re not the same side without him, much like Chelsea, because Essien is a fantastic central midfielder, arguably the best in the world currently. Without him, Ghana struggle as a side and that showed during the African Nations earlier this year, scoring a goal per game against the lower sides in the tournament and winning 1-0 but losing to the better sides in the tournament – Egypt 1-0 and Ivory Coast 3-1 respectively – because they lack a certain experience and quality without Essien. Ghana remain one of Africa’s biggest and best sides but like Ivory Coast without Drogba or Cameroon without Eto’o – they’re looking a lot less threatening as a result. African sides don’t give up – it’s not in their nature – so Ghana will give everything in this game, particularly as some of their players have played in Netherlands before. However, I don’t envision them having the quality nor the defensive strength to withstand such a talented and potent Netherlands side so backing Netherlands to beat the -1.75 handicap at 10/11 looks a good bet for me, particularly as I expect the odds to nose-dive sooner rather than later.
Verdict: Netherlands to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 10/11.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Tallinn – lay Flora Tallinn at 6/4.
There’s no way Flora Tallinn should be 2/5 to win this game purely based on how well Maag Tammeka Tartu have played in the last few weeks. My main concern for this game is that Flora will be buoyant after somehow overcoming Levadia last match in the Tallinn derby but the fact is that they don’t score many goals and they’re not as good as they used to be. Tartu have proven to be very strong against each opponent this season due to a strong defence and a youthful resilience. Tartu have already held Trans Narva twice this season and held Levadia Tallinn so they’re more than capable of doing so at home to Flora today. It took a gutsy display from Flora at home to beat Tartu back in March, eventually winning 3-2, so I really don’t know why Flora are so short against Tartu. Of course they’re a capable side and if Flora turn up as they’re capable then this could easily be 0-4! However, I find the chances of that occurring when paired up with the odds to be a somewhat unfair match-up. Flora shouldn’t be shorter than 8/13 for this one so I think there’s value on laying the visitors today with the proviso that Tartu turn up as well as they have done in recent weeks and they’ve certainly got the momentum to do so.
Verdict: Lay Flora Tallinn at 6/4.
FC Lahti vs JJK Jyvaskyla – home win at 11/10.
I’m looking at these odds but I’m not seeing the sense behind them. We’ve got two sides here that are going to be battling to stay in the division this season due to a lack of quality but the odds still don’t look right. I have a lot of respect for JJK Jyvaskyla for their battling style and ability to trouble bigger and better sides. However, their away record this season doesn’t reflect their overall ability as they’ve already won three times as many away games than they did in all of last season. JJK have improved but not to that level – it’s a miracle what a good start to the campaign can do to the bookies heads’ at times! FC Lahti aren’t anywhere near the side that they were and even veteran genius Jari Litmanen can’t prevent their slump at the moment. However, I watched FC Lahti travel to HJK Helsinki last match and although HJK caused them problems down the wings, FC Lahti were sound defensively and created some glorious chances, particularly in the second-half and only some poor finishing let them down, which is undoubtedly why they’re where they are in the Veikkausliiga currently. However, FC Lahti will have taken momentum from that result and JJK were taught a lesson by KuPS during their last away game so I’ll give FC Lahti a chance their chances tonight as their home record doesn’t reflect that they can be a competent side. I’ve got concerns over FC Lahti’s firepower but they shouldn’t be above evens for this game just because JJK have had a good start to their season away from home so I think small stakes on the home win are worthwhile here.
Verdict: FC Lahti to win at 11/10.
Portugal vs Cameroon – both sides to score at evens.
This is a bizarre but fun bet! Neither side can defend and both tend to focus more on goalscoring than anything so my question is “Why not?”
Portugal didn’t score against Cape Verde Islands in their last home game, which was an embarrassing scoreline that shocked the majority of the footballing world. I’m not going to say “I knew this would be a draw” because I didn’t think it would be and nor did I recommend it but what I did say was take under 3.5 goals because Portugal cannot break down resilient defences because they don’t have good enough strikers and it’d taken some individual brilliance for them to score, which they didn’t produce on the night, unfortunately. What was so bizarre though was that Cape Verde Islands looked threatening when they attacked and caused problems. Indeed, I’d go as far as to say that a competent side would have scored against Portugal. Cape Verde Islands aren’t a bunch of farmers – don’t get the wrong idea here – but they’re certainly not superstars either and yet they troubled a dubious Portuguese backline so I’m sure Cameroon can.
Similarly, I was impressed with Cameroon’s tenacity against Slovakia. They too struggled to break down resilient defences but that’s not a problem that faces them today. Their persistent pressurising should cause their opponents a lot of problems and their pace up front should be a nightmare for the Portuguese defenders. Cameroon looked shaky in defnce in the few times that Slovakia tested them during their friendly in Austria because they’re simply not good at defending. However, they looked a threat on the attack and passed the ball well – they just struggled to break through a solid Slovakia defence. As I’ve mentioned already though – Portugal don’t have a resilient defence – so I’m confident Cameroon can nick one or two here.
I wouldn’t bet on 1X2 on this game – too risky with Portugal’s impotence. However, neither side can defend well enough to keep the other out so I think it’s worth a cheeky bet on both sides to score at evens.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk – home win at 8/13.
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod are one of the more experienced sides in the division currently and often show it with their compact and assured home form. They’ve improved on it this season, in fact, with three wins and one draw from four home games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game. Visitors Avangard Kursk have found life difficult following promotion, particularly away from home where they’ve lost five out of six away games and have drawn the other whilst conceding nearly two goals per away game on average and have scored just once in those six games. Bluntly, if they manage to stay up, it’ll be via their home form, which is quite good. They’ve got another tough away game against a good home side today and I’ve not seen any reason as to why they’ll change their ways today, particularly with their hosts in fine form. Bookies normally place shorts odds on this league more often than not so I’m surprised they’ve missed this opportunity as I’d put the hosts at 1/2 for this game so there’s some value in the home win today, in my opinion.
Verdict: FK Nizhnyi Novgorod to win at 8/13.
Trollhattan vs Landskrona BoIS – away win at 5/4.
I think it’s about time that Henrik Larsson’s Landskrona picked up their usually strong away form and tonight sees them presented with the perfect opportunity to do so. Trollhattan are bottom of the Superettan due to five defeats in eight games and avoiding relegation looks to be beyond them at the moment. They’ve lost two out of their four home games and won just once due to the fact that they don’t score goals – just one scored in all eight games this season, in fact. Trollhattan aren’t bad defensively which is presumably why the bookies have lengthened Landskrona’s odds as the visitors struggle to score a little too much for my liking this season. However, the fact that they’ve only lost once during four away games speaks volumes about the overall potential of Landskrona and I think tonight is the perfect stage for them to unleash their actual ability. Landskrona are unbeaten in four consecutive games, winning twice and drawing twice so their momentum is very strong currently. Trollhattan have lost three consecutive games so momentum is low and thus their overall goal threat is lessened due to lowered morale. Although Landskrona certainly don’t score enough goals, I think odds of 5/4 on the away win are worth taking tonight because Trollhattan’s heads have dropped and any side in their condition are capable of conceding goals but they’re not looking a threat in front of goal themselves. Landskrona are usually good on the road and are definitely the better of the two sides so the away win looks worthy of a small punt today.
Verdict: Landskrona BoIS to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Levadia Tallinn, Netherlands, Bohemians, FK Nizhnyi Novgorod, FK Krasnodor.
Recommended bets:
Netherlands, Bohemians, and FK Nizhnyi Novgorod at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev (8) over 2.5 goals both sides to score
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Tallinn (6) 0-0
Viljandi Tulevik vs Lootus (6) 2-1
Kuressaare vs Flora Paide (5) over 2.5 goals
Trans Narva vs Nomme Kalju (6) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 2-1
KuPS Kuopio vs TPS Turku (5) 1-1
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Tampere United (6) 0-0
International Friendlies:
Australia vs Denmark (5) 1-1 (played in South Africa)
Switzerland vs Costa Rica (6) 1-1
Netherlands vs Ghana (8) -1.75 handicap
Portugal vs Cameroon (6) both sides to score
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Bohemians (8) 0-2
Russian Division 1:
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Irtysh Omsk (7)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (5)
Mordovia Saransk vs Salyut Belgorod (6) under 2.5 goals
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Avangard Kursk (8)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs FK Khimki (7) under 2.5 goals
Dinamo Bryansk vs Kuban Krasnodor (6) under 1.5 goals
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (5)
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Rotor Volgograd (6)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Energiya Khabarovsk (6)
FK Krasnodor vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (8) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Armed Forces (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Trollhattan vs Landskrona BoIS (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!