Newells Old Boys vs Olimpo
FreeToday’s featured game on a barren thursday is the crucial Argentinian Primera Division encounter between Newells Old Boys and newly-promoted Olimpo. The hosts are stumbling along in the current campaign but suddenly find themselves with a possibility of Copa Libertadores football next season if they win their next two games so I expect a spirited display from Newells tonight.
The problem I have with Newells, however, is that they don’t score anywhere near enough goals. Defensively, only the top two sides in the Primera Division can better them currently so that isn’t an issue for the hosts. However, scoring goals has been a real thorn in their side ever since the Boghossian-Achucarro partnership was split up in that the lanky Uruguayan departed to play for Salzburg in Austria and the Paraguayan departed to play for Atlas in Mexico. Newells obviously thought that an adequate replacement for Boghossian would be…another Uruguayan striker – Seb Taborda, who has spent some time in Europe before. Although he’s also good in the air and is more experienced then the afore-mentioned, I can’t really look upon it as a positive exchange from Newells’ perspective, especially as youngster Fomica has been playing more than he has. They also brought Argentinian striker Borghello back to Argentina from Deportivo Quito in Ecuador but he’s also struggled to make an impact for Newells Old Boys. It’s the same issue with Newells every couple of years, though. They have a talented target man, do really well, sell him, and struggle for a year. It’s happened with Oscar Cardozo (now at SL Benfica) and now Joaquin Boghossian (now at Salzburg) but either way – I wouldn’t go handicapping the hosts for this game, despite the inability of their opponents. Newells have kept two clean sheets in two consecutive games, to their credit, winning their last home game 1-0 against haphazard Boca Juniors. Indeed, Newells have already won five at home this season whilst suffering just two defeats – one against league leaders Estudiantes De La Plata and one against Racing Club Avellaneda – so it does tend to take a well-organised side to beat Newells, something that Olimpo generally aren’t. Intriguingly, Newells have only lost at home this season when they’ve fallen behind because they don’t generally have the firepower anymore to get back into the game. However, they’ve taken the lead in seven out of nine home games this season and have managed to win six of them thanks to good, reliable defending. Nonetheless, Newells may have to throw caution to the wind tonight as they have two games left to achieve a Copa Libertadores place so nothing but a win here will suffice.
Helpfully, impotent Newells Old Boys are facing Olimpo. Why is that helpful? Well, Olimpo have lost more away games in this campaign than any other side with eight defeats in nine away games. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and with that kind of record, even Newells Old Boys must be feeling confident. Olimpo have been playing better of late but they’re going to need something special to take a result from this game as they’re not a good goalscoring side (and they’re facing a strong defensive unit!) and they’re not a good defensive side. They’ve found life tough since promotion and that’s no great surprise although as is customary with newly-promoted sides in Argentina, they’ve got three years before the averages table allows them to be relegated so it’s not condemning just yet. Therefore, I don’t think Olimpo will be bursting a blood vessel to get a result here – I suspect we’ll see their atypical defensive approach and I expect it to be as ineffectual as usual against a superior side so Olimpo really should lose this game.
Ultimately, I find 3/4 too short for a good Newells side that have to win here. They do struggle to score goals and if this wasn’t a pivotal game for them then I’d probably leave it. However, Olimpo are a very poor away side and the hosts are a lot better than they are so 3/4 looks a bit of a gift to me tonight.
Verdict: Newells Old Boys to win at 3/4 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Argentinos Juniors vs Atletico Lanus – both teams to score at evens.
Having already qualified for the Copa Libertadores due to an excellent campaign last time around, Argentinos Juniors have no interest in this game. They were on a good run until they fell foul of league leaders Estudiantes De La Plata in a 3-1 defeat lately and that will deflate them, undoubtedly. Argentinos are a resilient side but they have no reason to bounce back. Aside from that, two of the goals in the game against Estudiantes came from terrible defensive errors so it’s even harder to recover from as Argentinos’ strength is their strong defence. Argentinos are good at home, however – they’re not an easy side to play against, although their attack is quite poor. However, a fairly average Lanus defence will no doubt help Argentinos Juniors out in the goalscoring department, especially as Lanus have to win this game to have any hope of competing in the Copa Libertadores next season alongside their opponents tonight. Lanus are quite a good side, as it happens – they’re just not a consistent side. However, two wins and a draw from their last three games gives Lanus some much-needed momentum ahead of this must-win game so they’ll at least approach it with the necessary confidence to stand a chance of winning this game.
Will Lanus do it? Probably not, to be honest – I don’t think they’ll score enough to beat Argentinos as I expect the hosts to score at least once here. However, an uninterested but good host facing a motivated but sporadically-good away side gives us an open window for both sides to score here. Lanus need the win and Argentinos will prefer the counter-attack option here. Therefore, I think both sides scoring in this game is priced a little long at evens so that’s my call in this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
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As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newells Old Boys vs Olimpo (8) 2-0
Banfield vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-1
Quilmes vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (4) 1-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Atletico Lanus (5) both teams to score
Enjoy your free betting tips!